Iso-Butanol Prices Dip in North America and Europe; Asia Sees Recovery Amid Supply Constraints

Towards late September 2024, the global Iso-Butanol market exhibited contrasting trends across different regions. While the European and North American markets continued to experience bearish conditions, the Asian market, particularly China, showed signs of recovery. Specifically, prices for Iso-Butanol declined by about 1.3% in the US and 1% in Germany, while prices surged approximately 6% in China.

The price declines in North America and Europe can be attributed to a significant drop in feedstock propylene prices, which fell by approximately 12% in North America and 4% in Europe. This decreases effectively lowered production costs in these regions. In contrast, the supply situation in China remained strained, as several Iso-Butanol production units struggled to come back online amid urgent procurement activities from the downstream plasticizer industry.

Chinese suppliers reported low inventories of Iso-Butanol and were not pressured to offer discounts, reflecting a tighter market. It's noteworthy that Iso-Butanol prices in China had reached historically low levels of USD 970/MT Ex-Qingdao by the end of August 2024, largely due to off-season conditions in the downstream paints and coatings sector. This situation had prompted many suppliers and manufacturers to reduce their Iso-Butanol production rates.

In China, major producers faced operational disruptions that further constrained supply. For instance, Sinopec Qilu halted operations at its Iso-Butanol production unit in Shandong, which has a capacity of 25,000 MT/year, around mid-September 2024. Similarly, CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Company Ltd suspended operations at their 10,000 MT/year Iso-Butanol production facility in Guangdong, tightening the domestic supply even more. Additionally, Hanwha Solutions reported that its Iso-Butanol unit in Yeosu, South Korea, with a capacity of 8,000 MT/year, was under maintenance, contributing to rising prices in China.

In the US market, the Iso-Butanol situation was largely influenced by declining propylene prices and moderate demand from the downstream paints and coatings industries. Following Hurricane Francine, all propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units resumed operations, leading to improved production and contributing to the price drop. However, Ineos and Invista had not provided updates on their force majeure situations as they worked to rebuild their stock levels. Furthermore, Dow Chemical reduced the operating rate at its facility in Freeport, Texas, which has a capacity of 750,000 MT/year, which further may lead to moderate production of Iso-Butanol.

In Europe, the bearish trend in propylene prices was primarily due to improved supply dynamics amid continued weak demand for polypropylene (PP). Additionally, several propane tankers were reported to be heading toward Europe, creating a supply glut of propylene. This influx further lowered production costs for Iso-Butanol, reinforcing the downward pressure on prices in that market.

Overall, the global Iso-Butanol market is characterized by regional disparities, with Asia showing signs of recovery while North America and Europe face supply challenges and price declines. As per expectations the Iso-Butanol market in October 2024 is expected to continue to show signs of recovery across Asia, as some units continue to halt production with suppliers not willing to offer discounted prices. This is further expected in the North American and European markets, where the incoming festive quarter may even provide support to the Iso-Butanol market from downstream paints and coating industries as consumer sentiments followed by the suppliers need for restocking activities, despite major producers of Iso-Butanol across North America and Europe, such as Eastman Chemicals and OQ Chemicals not having announced price changes for October 2024.