US Iso-Butanol Prices Are Poised to Increase in October 2024, Driven By Strengthening Demand

In early October 2024, Iso Butanol prices across the US market were reported to have admitted to stability in the market as demand from the downstream automotive paints and coating industries remained subdued, despite the demand originating from the construction industry. With 2 more months of the Hurricane season being left, feedstock Propylene (Refinery Grade) plants across the US market continued to function smoothly as Hurricane Helene caused little to no impact across the US Gulf Coast and veered off towards the state of Florida. Suppliers across the US were reported to have limited quantities of Iso-Butanol available in the market and were not willing to provide any discounts. This is further corroborated by the fact that a leading oxo-alcohol manufacturer across the US market, namely Eastman Chemicals was reported to announce a price hike of USD 110/MT for Iso-Butanol with effective from October 15, 2024, with the reasons being high operating costs and particularly raw materials as cited in the press release dated October 4, 2024

Supply conditions of Iso-Butanol were moderate due to limited availability of feedstock Propylene (Refinery Grade) which in tern limited production of Iso-Butanol.  For example, Dow Chemicals was reported to have been running its PDH plant having capacity of 750,000 MT/year at lower rates. Moreover, refinery run rates across the US were recorded to have been lower throughout September 2024, having been assessed at 87.6% in the final week of September 2024, ending on September 27, 2024, down from 92.8% in the initial week of September, ending on September 9, 2024, which limited the production of Iso-Butanol.

Demand conditions for Iso-Butanol from the paints and coating industries have shown improvements despite the dip in the construction spending witnessed in August 2024 as reported by the US Census Bureau. Mortgage rates were reported to have remained at historically low rates at 6.12% for a 30-year fixed term and 5.25% for a 15-year fixed term, according to Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation), which nevertheless provides a positive outlook for the prospective pool of homebuyers. Furthermore, according to Freddie Mac, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year, which may lead to heightened demand for Iso-Butanol. In addition to the positive outlook, present consumption of Iso-Butanol also remained steady as from the downstream paints and coating industry as Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, surged 15.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 992,000 units last month, as per the Commerce Department's Census Bureau. Single-family starts rose 5.2% from a year ago. Permits for future construction of single-family housing increased 2.8% to a rate of 967,000 units with further increments expected during September 2024 as the festive quarter neared which are expected to bolster the demand for Iso-Butanol. However, demand conditions from the automotive industry remained unfavourable as automotive sales declined by more than 12.3% during September 2024 on a yearly basis, due to a smaller number of working days, which nevertheless continued to remain a drag on the consumption of Iso-Butanol

Overall, prices of Iso-Butanol are expected to climb in October with support from price hikes, lower refinery run rates across the US market amidst improved demand conditions as the festive quarter nears, leading to improved procurement activities amongst suppliers.