In the first week of December, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in Germany and the United States displayed a remarkable sense of stability, reflecting complex dynamics in steel production and market expectations. The HRC market has been experiencing a delicate balance between supply constraints and subdued demand, with key industry players maintaining a strategic approach to pricing and production.

The HRC spot market in Germany and the United States showed negligible price movements, with most producers holding their published spot prices steady. In USA, notably, Nucor has maintained its HRC pricing for four consecutive weeks, while other major steel producers have similarly kept their Hot Rolled Coil pricing consistent. The market witnessed a subtle improvement in buyer sentiment, rising to a two-month high by the end of November after reaching a four-year low in late October. The HRC market's stability was further underscored by consistent lead times from steel mills, with production times slightly shorter compared to three months prior.

Production data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) provides additional context to the HRC market dynamics. Total raw steel output was estimated at 1,638,000 short tons in the week ending November 30, representing a 1.0% decline from the previous week. The mill capability utilization rate stood at 73.8%, marginally lower than the previous week's 74.5% but still an improvement from the same period last year. These HRC production figures reflect the industry's careful approach to managing supply in a challenging market environment.

The German steel market, particularly for Hot Rolled Coil, exhibited intense competition among mills and distributors. Service centres are currently in a destocking phase, with some southern European mills offering prices below current market rates. However, these lower offers have not significantly impacted the broader HRC spot market. The market remains cautious, with expectations of a potential demand revival after the holiday season crucial for price support.

Import dynamics have also played a significant role in the HRC market. Low import levels, attributed to pricing challenges, currency fluctuations, and European Union trade safeguards, have inadvertently supported demand for domestic mill products. The ongoing negotiations between automotive original equipment manufacturers and steelmakers are expected to provide further clarity on the HRC market outlook in the coming weeks.

As per ChemAnalyst, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market is anticipated to experience gradual stabilization in 2025 in USA, but EU is trying to push the prices up for Q1 2025. Producers are closely monitoring contractual bookings and market demand drivers, with early indications suggesting an increase in client booking requirements. The market's future will likely depend on a delicate balance between production capacity, demand recovery, and strategic pricing approaches adopted by major steel manufacturers.