Surging Acrylonitrile Prices in the USA Amid Weak Productions

In the first half of September 2024, the market players increased their Acrylonitrile quotations by 1.1% due to inadequate supplies. The Acrylonitrile production rates were low as operating rates were hampered at the manufacturing units amid stressed availability of feedstock Ammonia due to rising costs of upstream Natural Gas and consistent demand from fertilizers producers. Consequently, the Acrylonitrile export rates decreased and export index for North American exports experienced a decline in August, reflecting a slowing trend in this downturn, primarily influenced by backhaul trades. This shift results in the weighted average long-term rate for importing a 40-foot container into North America being significantly higher than the average export rate, with the gap having widened in recent months due to consecutive increases in the North America Imports sub-index alongside decreases in the Exports sub-index. Long-term import freight rates surged substantially, exceeding export rates, in contrast to the averages observed in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Acrylonitrile offtakes were moderate from the buyers. The Acrylonitrile demand to produce adhesive, pipes, and coatings remained stable due to sluggish consumption of materials from the downstream construction sector. Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator fell to 8.2 months in August, a decline of 1.0 months compared to the same time last year. Only the infrastructure segment saw a monthly increase in backlog, driven by strong public spending, while all segments have declined over the past year. ABC's Construction Confidence Index also showed reductions in sales, profit margins, and staffing levels, with profit margin expectations falling below the growth threshold. Contractor confidence is waning due to high borrowing costs and a slowing economy, resulting in postponed projects and backlog declines, particularly in the South. At the same time, Acrylonitrile demand was firm from elastomer and rubber manufacturers due to improved consumption from Automotive sector. The US Manufacturing PMI fell in August 2024 as the manufacturing sector saw a downturn due to a significant drop in Basic Materials production. This decline was driven by weakening domestic demand. Buyers cautiously made their purchases amid a rise in inflation as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in August, matching July's increase.

According to the ChemAalyst data sources, Acrylonitrile FOB Texas quotations in the USA witnessed USD 1405/MT, at the end of the week concluded on 20th September 2024.

Estimations are that the Acrylonitrile price trend will remain firm, and prices will increase in the North American region during the final quarter of 2024. The operating costs will increase due to an escalation in energy prices, which will impact the final prices of Acrylonitrile. At the same time, the demand for Acrylonitrile is likely to increase from acrylic fabric manufacturers in the textile sector during the upcoming winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.