For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Acrylonitrile price trend oscillated in the North American region, showcasing moderate sentiments in the market. At the beginning of the quarter, Acrylonitrile prices decreased amid reduced demand for end-use polymers in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
In the middle of the third quarter, market players raised their Acrylonitrile quotations. This upturn was primarily influenced by factors such as limited supplies of feedstock Ammonia, escalated natural gas prices impacting production, and stable yet moderate demand from various industries. These factors led to constrained operating rates at manufacturing units, contributing to a bullish market sentiment. Consequently, the second half of the quarter witnessed a 4% price increment compared to the first half, indicating a strengthening market.
Towards the end of Q3, improved availability of Crude Oil in the international market and increased refinery operations resulted in firm availability of feedstocks and negatively impacted the Acrylonitrile production costs. At the same time, the impact of Hurricane Helene resulted in reduced consumption from downstream industries and an increase in domestic stockpiles due to affected supply chain activities. The market players negatively revised their quotations and overall, the Acrylonitrile prices witnessed a 5% decline in Q3 2024 from the previous quarter. Conclusively, the quarter-ending price for Acrylonitrile FOB Texas quotations in the USA stood at USD 1415/MT.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Acrylonitrile market in the APAC region saw a pronounced bearish trend, marked by a steady decline in prices due to ongoing oversupply and weak demand conditions. This downward trend was influenced by several key factors. The sluggish demand from downstream industries, like automotive and construction, placed significant downward pressure on prices. Seasonal factors, including the monsoon and typhoon seasons, adversely affected regional construction activities, leading to decreased consumption of polymer materials such as ABS and rubbers like Nitrile Butadiene Rubber and Styrene Acrylonitrile Rubber used in construction. As a result, orders for Acrylonitrile from SAN and NBR manufacturers fell, exacerbated by high inventory levels stemming from the oversupply. Additionally, the market faced diminishing cost support from feedstock Propylene and Ammonia, driven by lower upstream crude oil prices and decreased fertilizer demand, further worsening the price decline. Overall, Acrylonitrile prices dropped by 5% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous quarter, concluding with CFR Qingdao prices at USD 1155/MT in China.
Europe
The Acrylonitrile prices shifted from the previous quarter's movement during the third quarter of 2024, and the European market experienced a predominantly negative pricing environment driven by a confluence of factors predominantly affecting market dynamics. Throughout the quarter, the sluggish demand from downstream sectors, particularly within the automotive and construction sectors, exerted downward pressure on prices. The Eurozone's construction sector continued its downturn, significantly impacting Acrylonitrile consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing sector faced challenges, with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI indicating declining new orders and rising costs, further dampening demand. Supply-side dynamics also played a role, as supply availability improved post-summer holidays, yet demand failed to match this increase, exacerbating inventory levels. Seasonality also played a role as summer holidays, coupled with labor deficits and constrained production rates, kept market sentiment bearish. Despite no reported plant shutdowns, operational rates were closely monitored to manage the surplus supply. The latter half of the quarter saw a steeper decline of 8% compared to the first half, highlighting the intensified market pressures as the quarter progressed. Conclusively, the quarter-ending price of Acrylonitrile FD Hamburg in Germany settled at USD 1250/MT, after an overall 6% drop from the last quarter's prices and the negative pricing environment prevailed throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American Acrylonitrile market saw a decline in prices during the latter half. This downturn was driven by several factors that collectively pressured the market downward. Initially, prices remained stable due to increased orders from ABS industries and a relatively optimistic construction sector, despite slower growth. However, shifts in demand within the construction industry led to a decrease in demand from the adhesives and sealants sectors. This was largely due to a sluggish construction industry and reduced consumption by polymer manufacturers, which significantly impacted pricing.
Additionally, decreased support from feedstock Ammonia—caused by a downturn in orders and consumption by fertilizer producers—further contributed to the falling Acrylonitrile prices. In the USA, where the most substantial price changes occurred, the overall trend was notably negative. Prices decreased by 2% compared to the same quarter last year and fell by 7% from the previous quarter in 2024, highlighting a consistent decline throughout the year. A comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter revealed a significant 6% decrease.
The quarter-end price of USD 1280/MT for Acrylonitrile delivered to Houston reflects this ongoing downward trend. In summary, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for Acrylonitrile in North America, particularly in the USA, was largely negative due to subdued demand, decreased feedstock cost support, and excess upstream supplies.
APAC
In Q2 2024, Acrylonitrile prices in the APAC region remained stable, supported by balanced demand and supply dynamics and moderate manufacturing capacities. The market was influenced by steady demand from downstream industries such as automotive and manufacturing, particularly for Nitrile Butadiene Rubber and ABS. Although feedstock prices for Propylene and Ammonia fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand shifts, these changes had a limited impact on Acrylonitrile prices, thanks to stable production costs and improved supply chain logistics, especially in ocean freight.
In Japan, the most notable price changes within the APAC region were observed. The market showed stability, driven by strong demand from the automotive sector and steady manufacturing activities. Seasonal factors had a minor effect, and the market adjusted to external economic variables like energy costs and raw material availability. Acrylonitrile prices in Japan increased by 8% compared to the same quarter last year, indicating a positive market adjustment. However, prices rose only 4% from the previous quarter in 2024, reflecting a stable and cautiously optimistic sentiment. There was no significant price change between the first and second halves of the quarter, maintaining a steady 0% difference. The quarter ended with Acrylonitrile FOB Osaka prices at USD 1220/MT, highlighting a stable pricing environment that aids in predictability and strategic planning for the coming quarters.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Acrylonitrile prices rose significantly due to several key factors in the European region. Limited feedstock Ammonia and Propylene availability, combined with higher production costs from rising Natural Gas prices, constrained supply. Supply chain disruptions and logistical challenges further tightened the market, creating stock shortages. Meanwhile, steady demand from downstream industries, particularly Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) and Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS) manufacturers, helped maintain a strong pull-on supply despite broader economic uncertainties. In Germany, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the Acrylonitrile market showed a bullish trend. Prices for Acrylonitrile FD Hamburg increased by 10% from the previous quarter, driven by higher automotive production and sustained construction sector demand. Seasonal factors also contributed, with increased consumption of acrylonitrile-based adhesives and sealants in the real estate sector. The price comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter revealed a 5% increase, indicating a tightening market. Year-on-year, Acrylonitrile prices surged by 9% compared to Q2 2023. The quarter ended with Acrylonitrile FD Hamburg prices at USD 1465/MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment influenced by supply-demand dynamics and higher production costs.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Acrylonitrile price trend showcased an upward movement in the North American market during the first quarter of 2024. At the beginning of the quarter, the orders increased after the New Year holidays from domestic Nitrile Butadiene Rubber manufacturers due to the increased import costs of materials amid a surge in the US freight charges amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.
During the mid-quarter, prices inclined the orders rose from ABS manufacturers amid a rise in demand from the construction sector for stocking purposes and the anticipation of the revival of construction activities in the North American region with the arrival of spring. Additionally, the energy sector witnessed surges in energy costs due to geopolitical tensions and positive economic data, which caused escalations in the production costs of Acrylonitrile. The quarter also saw a notable increase in plant shutdowns. Ineos Nitriles in Green Lake, Texas; Solutia Inc. in Chocolate Bayou, Texas; Cornerstone Company in Waggaman, Louisiana; Ascend Performance Materials in Chocolate Bayou, Texas; and Cytec Industries Inc. in Waggaman, Louisiana faced shutdowns, mainly attributed to force majeure events like freezing weather and winter storms. These disruptions significantly affected production and contributed to the rise in Acrylonitrile prices.
Towards the end of the quarter, Acrylonitrile prices rose again in the USA due to firm demand from buyers in the refrigerators and freezers sector, driven by consumer complaints of premature fridge failures. This surge in demand for ABS for repair and replacement purposes contributed to the bullish movement. Meanwhile, limited supplies of feedstock Propylene, exacerbated by maintenance shutdowns at LyondellBasell manufacturing units in Texas in March 2024, hampered the production rates. At the end of the quarter, Acrylonitrile FOB Texas in the USA witnessed USD 1435/MT.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Acrylonitrile price witnessed a mixed trend in the APAC region. At the beginning of Q1, prices declined as offtakes were low, especially from regional Nitrile Butadiene Rubber producers attributed to the decline in the consumption of rubber gloves. Last year, the top glove manufacturers bore the losses of oversupplies due to increased inventory levels because of slackened offtakes for gloves. Meanwhile, operating rates fell at regional manufacturing units during the mid-quarter because of the tight availability of feedstock Propylene amid limited supplies of Crude Oil from Middle East exporters amid the geopolitical conflicts and trade problems through the sea routes. As a result, Acrylonitrile prices escalated amid moderate trading activities during the festival celebration around the Lunar New Year and the arrival of spring season in the region. Towards the quarter's end, the air cargo market witnessed increased demand for the third consecutive month in March, fuelled by the expansion of e-commerce and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, impacting air freight rates and product supplies in the international market amidst moderate demand from buyers. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, Acrylonitrile FOB Osaka quotations in Japan settled at USD 1220/MT.
Europe
In the European region, the Aniline market showcased weak trading sentiments, and the price trend shifted towards North during the first quarter of 2024 when compared with the previous quarter. Initially, the decrease in feedstock Ammonia prices, coupled with sluggish demand from agrochemical industries and surplus supplies, had adversely affected the production costs of Acrylonitrile, leading to a reduction in market prices. During the mid-quarter, the production rates were affected by elevated energy costs and delayed supplies of feedstock Propylene from the US exporters due to trade problems through the Suez Canal. Simultaneously, uncertainties regarding energy security in Europe arose, influenced by a pause in US LNG exports, which impacted variable costs across industries. Simultaneously, the automotive sector witnessed heightened demand for Nitrile Butadiene rubber derived from Acrylonitrile amid increased production of electric vehicles. Towards the quarter's conclusion, regional manufacturing units grappled with disruptions to production schedules due to a shortage of skilled labor. It resulted in diminished output rates and escalated operational costs. Additionally, global air cargo demand experienced its third consecutive monthly increase in March, driven by the expanding e-commerce sector and disruptions in shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea region, leading to fluctuations in air freight rates. Consequently, Acrylonitrile prices inclined again by the quarter's end, with Acrylonitrile FD Hamburg in Germany assessed at USD 1350/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Acrylonitrile price trend showcased bullish movement during the fourth quarter of 2023, and prices rose by almost 12% compared to the previous quarter. Initially, prices rose amid stressed availability of feedstock Ammonia as production rates were affected by the limited supplies of upstream Natural Gas amid the fears around the availability of stocks during winter because of the crisis between Israel and Gaza.
During the mid-quarter, prices rose as INVISTA, in Houston Texas, with a feedstock Propylene production capacity of 54833 TPM, went for Force Majeure during November 2023 and affected the production rates of the product. Meanwhile, product stocking practices were firm from the regional buyers, which declined slightly before the Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday sales as domestic retailers were preparing for the holidays.
Towards the end of the quarter, the stressed availability of Propylene inventories amid tight supplies amid increased consumption of upstream Propane for heating purposes during winter raised the cost support. Furthermore, the low water levels of the Mississippi River affected the supply rates in the market. At the end of the final quarter of 2023, Acrylonitrile FOB Texas in the USA hovered at USD 1270/MT.
Asia
Like the North American region, the Acrylonitrile price trend remained bullish in the Asia-Pacific region in the final quarter of 2023. Initially, Sumimoto Chemical Co. Ltd., in Japan, with an Acrylonitrile production capacity of 5833 TPM, went under maintenance shutdown during the 1st half of October 2023 and affected the availability of supplies in the market. During the mid-quarter, demand increased for end products from the Polymer and elastomers industries due to an increase in product procurement activities with the arrival of winter and declining temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, cost support escalated on feedstock Ammonia due to the lack of supplies amid reduced production rates, and production rates remained moderate in the region. Towards the end of Q4, the price trend remained stable amid the destocking practices by the regional and moderate consumption rates from the downstream Nitrile Butadiene and ABS industries. Furthermore, the offtakes were firm from the Acrylic Fibre manufacturers during winter. At the end of Q4 2023, prices witnessed an overall increase of almost 4%, and Acrylonitrile FOB Osaka in Japan hovered at USD 1180/MT.
Europe
The Acrylonitrile price trend shifted movement in the European region during the final quarter of the year. At the beginning of the quarter, the availability of supplies was tight in the market as Ineos Nitriles in Cologne, Germany, with an Acrylonitrile production capacity of 26667 TPM, was under maintenance shutdown during October 2023. The suppliers raised their quotations. In the mid-quarter, demand-supply dynamics remained moderate in the region. The stressed availability of Propylene inventories amid tight supplies from North American exporters amid maintenance activities at Propylene dehydrogenation units impacted the production rates. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index also dropped throughout the quarter, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector activities. Consequently, towards the end of Q4, the demand remained low from Nitrile Butadiene Rubber Industries due to cautious buying activities from buyers. Simultaneously, operating rates declined in the Styrene Acrylonitrile and ABS industries. Overall, the prices witnessed an increase of almost 2.5%, and Acrylonitrile FD Antwerp in Belgium assembled at USD 1340/MT at the end of the quarter.
