Soybean Oil Prices in India May Increase Amid Supply Shortage

Mumbai: It is now the time for Soybean Oil to slam Indian customers' wallets after skyrocketing edible oils costs last year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, a major exporter of sunflower oil, caused supply interruptions that drove up edible oil, including Soyabean Oil prices, last year. The rising price affected India because it imports a significant portion of its edible oil demands.

Argentina accounts for more than 36% of India's total Soybean Oil imports, but that percentage is expected to decline by 0.9 MT each year to 1.4 MT in 2022-23 (October-September). The market for Edible Oils is now in danger of being disrupted again due to a severe drought in Argentina. Argentina's farmers are experiencing crop losses as a result of extended heat waves and a lack of rainfall, despite being the top exporter of Soybean Oil and Soymeal. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Soybean Oil prices increased 3.9% in the most recent week to 54.90 cents a pound, and in India, the oil sold at 1,039 per 10 kg, up 14.9% from the previous week. With this, the nation's total soy oil imports will probably be between 2.6 and 2.9 MT, down from 4.1 MT the previous season.

It is also conceivable that a surplus of sunflower oil at a reduced cost will compensate for the shortage of Soybean Oil supply in the Indian market. Major exporters are attempting to boost the pumping of oil and send it to India after the 60-day extension on the Ukraine Black Sea export route agreement. The oil is currently $69-89 per tonne less expensive than Soybean Oil available in India.

As per the ChemAnalyst database, the prices are likely to increase until other edible seed, including mustard seed crushing, picks up steam around mid-April in the Indian domestic market. Soybean Oil prices are predicted to rise another 9 to 14 cents per 10 kg on the open market, reaching 56.7 cents per pound on the CBOT. In spite of the tight Soybean Oil market in India and the range-bound pricing in anticipation of a reduction in oil imports from Argentina, another edible oil is anticipated to make up for Soybean Oil, given this year's record production.