For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose by 8.9% quarter-over-quarter, in Q3 2025, supported by policy and demand.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1175.33/MT.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price strengthened amid rising overseas demand and tight near-term supply.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast remains cautious amid policy uncertainty and global edible oil competition.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend supported higher seed costs and crushing margins.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook indicates continued appetite from biodiesel and food sectors.
• Soybean Oil Price Index reflects elevated freight, logistics and export activity.
• Inventory levels remained ample, limiting immediate supply fears but sustaining price support.
• Major producers' operations remained stable, preventing sudden supply gaps and boosting confidence.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Supply dynamics: robust biodiesel demand and export activity supported price movement amid seasonal supply tightness globally across regions.
• Cost pressures: rising feedstock costs and crushing margins kept prices firm against softer domestic demand expectations internationally.
• Logistics: seasonal bottlenecks and freight costs continued to influence September pricing in North America noticeably amid congestion persistent.
APAC
• In China, the Soybean Oil Price Index fell by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 995/MT.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price faced downward pressure from abundant local supply, competitive global offers, and delayed shipments.
• The Soybean Oil Price Forecast remains cautious due to substitution risks, inventory overhang, and seasonal demand volatility.
• Production Cost Trend for Soybean Oil rose on higher processing energy consumption, freight costs, and tighter refinery margins.
• Demand Outlook remains tempered by palm-oil substitution, slower regional demand recovery, and inventory-led cautious buying.
• Soybean Oil Price Index signaling fragile balance as exports compete with domestic consumption and seasonal shifts.
• Inventory levels remain elevated, constraining price gains despite steady export demand and proactive stockpiling by buyers.
• Export logistics improved later, potentially supporting price discipline, smoother cargo flows, and gradual market stabilization.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Tighter global edible oil supply, logistics bottlenecks, and rising freight costs constrained September prices in APAC.
• China's domestic crushing output and stockpiling limited export gains, dampening price momentum in the quarter.
• Substitution by palm oil and biodiesel demand muted upside potential despite firm demand from processors.
Europe
• In Germany, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose by 7.11% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, supported by demand resilience.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1305/MT globally.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price softened amid global oversupply and regional inventory buildup.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast remained cautious as currency and feedstock costs swing upward.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend shows pressure from energy inputs evolving across EU and global markets.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook remains steadily supported by biodiesel and food sectors amid cautious procurement.
• Soybean Oil Price Index signals volatility amid shifting import strategies and global policy changes.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price dynamics reflect port congestion and freight cost fluctuations seasonally.
• Soybean Oil Price Index remains sensitive to euro-dollar rates and global export quotas amid policy shifts.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Supply tightness in exporting regions constrained available cargoes and supported European imports amid seasonal shifts.
• Rising freight costs and port bottlenecks elevated landed prices for buyers in Europe.
• Currency volatility and demand shifts from biodiesel and food sectors influenced pricing.
South America
• In Brazil, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose 16.42% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to tight supply and demand strength.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1063.33/MT, reflecting global demand.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price stayed firm due to export tightness and biodiesel demand, supported by seasonal demand by buyers.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast remains cautious amid steady demand and improving crop outlook and near-term.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend rose with higher input costs and logistics pressures globally across regions.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook shows resilient overseas demand, especially from Asia this quarter as harvest season approaches.
• Soybean Oil Price Index signals quarterly volatility from logistics and macro shifts in markets worldwide globally.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in South America?
• Strong overseas demand from Asia as winter stocking boosts imports into the region globally and markets for processors.
• Rising production costs and biodiesel blending commitments tighten domestic supply and support sustained prices across regional markets worldwide.
• Logistics bottlenecks at ports and currency movements constrained export flows, underpinning persistent price firmness throughout Q3 period.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• In Q2 2025, North America’s soybean oil market showed a consistent upward trend with an average quarter-over-quarter price increase of approximately 3.87%, and the soybean oil spot price reaching USD 1,115 per unit in June. This rise was largely driven by robust export demand and tightening supply fundamentals amid global uncertainties.
• June saw continued growth in soybean oil spot prices, reaching a high point due to policy shifts, especially the EPA’s proposed increase in biofuel blending mandates that elevated market optimism and speculative buying.
• The soybean oil production cost trend during the quarter reflected pressure from rising freight rates and constrained oilseed crush margins, influenced by delayed crop planting and weather woes impacting raw material availability.
• soybean oil Demand outlook improved notably, buoyed by stronger biodiesel blending requirements and persistent global import interest, particularly from Asian markets, which increased purchasing activity despite supply challenges.
• U.S. soybean oil inventories remained relatively tight due to reduced crushing rates amid higher operational costs and supply chain bottlenecks, supporting firm prices throughout the quarter.
• Speculative activity intensified, with money managers raising net long positions on soybean oil futures, reinforcing bullish price momentum ahead of early Q3.
• Export competitiveness of U.S. soybean oil improved due to subdued domestic soybean supplies and favorable global price differentials, expanding market share in key import regions.
• Operational constraints at processing plants, including humidity-related planting delays in the Midwest and logistical disruptions in Argentina, affected supply flow and supported price resilience.
• Forward contract prices were gradually adjusted upward in response to tightening fundamentals and policy-driven demand, signaling a stable to slightly bullish price forecast for next quarter.
• Overall, energy sector developments and policy changes rather than immediate physical shortages were predominant in driving price behavior, emphasizing a structurally positive demand outlook for soybean oil in the U.S.
APAC
• The APAC region experienced a downward trajectory in soybean oil prices over Q2 2025, with an average price decline of approximately -1.97%, culminating in a soybean oil spot price of around USD 970 in June, influenced by oversupply and weak demand fundamentals.
• In June, soybean oil prices continued to soften as domestic crushing volumes in China reached historic highs, creating significant oversupply which coupled with limited international buying interest pressured export prices further downward.
• Throughout the quarter, production cost trends remained under pressure due to fluctuating soybean import patterns, elevated inventories, and logistical delays impacting refinery throughput despite operational stability at crushing plants.
• The soybean oil demand outlook weakened considerably, affected by reduced biofuel sector uptake owing to lower crude oil prices and a pivot by importers toward cheaper alternatives such as palm oil.
• Chinese processors prioritized volume over margins to offload surplus soybean oil, maintaining low export prices amid a highly competitive global market environment.
• Supply-side abundance, supported by a surge in Brazilian soybean imports and eased freight costs, intensified the market’s oversaturation rather than stabilizing prices.
• Weakening international demand, especially from Southeast Asia and African importers facing inflationary and currency challenges, contributed to subdued external pull-on Chinese soybean oil exports.
• Domestic consumption remained modest with subdued food processing and industrial purchasing due to cautious inventory management amid economic uncertainties.
• Forward pricing for soybean oil reflected bearish sentiment, with expectations of continued price pressure into the next quarter given persistent supply surplus and demand softness.
• Manufacturing and supply chain dynamics in APAC indicated a focus on clearing stock rather than expanding margins, setting a challenging environment for soybean oil suppliers in the near term.
Europe
• European soybean oil prices demonstrated mixed dynamics but trended moderately higher in Q2 2025 with an average quarter-over-quarter price increase of approximately 3.43%, reaching around USD 1,170 per unit in June, before slight retreat due to supply factors.
• In June, European soybean oil markets, particularly Ukraine, witnessed a downward correction influenced by record domestic soybean production forecasts and softening demand amid fierce international competition and falling crude oil prices impacting biofuel sectors.
• Production cost trends were impacted by investments in shifting processing capacity from sunflower seeds to soybeans, rising operational expenses, and inflationary pressures that weighed on manufacturing economics.
• Demand outlook for soybean oil was resilient earlier in the quarter, supported by strong export flows to the EU and India, but softened toward June as alternative vegetable oils gained price advantage and buying interest waned.
• Ukrainian soybean processors increased crush volumes amid strong domestic soybean harvest prospects, translating into greater oil availability and temporarily exerting downward pressure on prices.
• Policy volatility and currency fluctuations shaped price movements as producers aligned export prices with international benchmarks amidst market uncertainty.
• Export demand remained solid in May driven by EU and Asian markets, facilitated by favorable exchange rates and competitive pricing strategies from Ukrainian suppliers.
• Seasonal soybean oil demand slowdowns and reduced biofuel blending margins in June led to softer domestic consumption, while robust logistics and port capacity maintained export throughput.
• Supply-side resilience backed by record production combined with weakening global crude oil prices contributed to a delicate balance between upward price pressure and emerging bearish signals.
• Price forecasts for the forthcoming quarter suggest cautious optimism amid expected steady demand but with susceptibility to global vegetable oil market volatility and energy price influences.
South America
• In Q2 2025, South America’s soybean oil market oscillated but ended with a modest downward trend averaging a marginal 0.87% price, with soybean oil spot prices reaching USD 1,035 by June, propelled by strategic export activity and policy incentives in Argentina.
• June was marked by a substantial price surge driven by Argentina’s accelerated export shipments ahead of impending export duty hikes and favorable crushing margins, contributing to a strong soybean oil price rebound.
• The soybean oil production cost trend showed volatility resulting from weather variability, cautious crushing activity, and currency fluctuations, affecting input costs but also stimulating strategic operational adjustments.
• Soybean oil Demand outlook improved significantly in June as tightening global vegetable oil markets, elevated biodiesel blending mandates in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions fueled strong international buying interest.
• April’s limited soybean harvest and cautious crushing contributed to initial price firmness, while May’s correction reflected U.S. biofuel policy uncertainties and increased global supply from competitor countries.
• Argentina’s manufacturing sector responded to duty-driven incentives by operating near full processing capacity in June, prioritizing soybean oil production to maximize export revenues.
• Logistical efficiencies in June facilitated record export volumes, despite earlier bottlenecks, showcasing enhanced supply chain responsiveness within the region.
• Global soybean oil demand weakness in May, especially from key buyers such as India and the EU, tempered prices, aligning with speculative profit-taking amid uncertain biofuel policies.
• The interplay of improved crush margins and government tax strategies shaped a positive pricing environment in June, overshadowing earlier mid-quarter bearishness.
• Forward soybean oil price forecasts for the next quarter remain bullish, underpinned by expected continued strong export momentum and supportive global demand fundamentals in the edible oil and biofuel sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by tightening supply conditions amid downward revisions in regional soybean production due to lower yields and acreage. Demand remains robust, driven by sustained import requirements from key global buyers and increased biodiesel sector consumption. Supply constraints from competing producing regions and rising shipping costs further support export prices. Market sentiment reflects cautious inventory liquidation early in the quarter, transitioning to a more bullish outlook as supply concerns intensify and export competitiveness improves with a weaker US dollar.
In the USA, soybean oil prices rose by 4.13% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging 990 USD/MT. Monthly prices exhibited a relatively flat intra-quarter trend, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics. Price gains are underpinned by reduced domestic soybean output, strong export demand, and stable crushing activity, despite some inventory drawdowns. The market remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward pressure driven by tightening stocks and favorable export conditions in the near term.
Asia Pacific
The APAC soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by tightening supply amid robust demand growth, driven by trade disputes and shifting sourcing patterns. Reduced availability of alternative oils and delayed shipments from key exporters have intensified regional procurement activities. Rising input costs and inflationary pressures are further constraining supply, while downstream sectors maintain strong buying interest. Inventory levels remain balanced but cautious restocking and strategic hoarding are evident, supporting a generally bullish market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
In China, soybean oil prices increased by 5.08% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging 1027 USD/MT during the quarter. Monthly data indicate a consistent upward trajectory, reflecting supply tightness from delayed imports and higher domestic demand. Elevated production costs and ongoing trade tensions have compounded price gains, sustaining a bullish trend. The near-term outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continued strong demand and potential further price appreciation.
Europe
The European soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While supply is expected to outpace demand during certain months, persistent high input costs and geopolitical tensions are elevating production expenses and export prices. Increasing consumption in key importing regions, coupled with biodiesel mandates diverting soybean oil to fuel production, sustains upward price pressures. Market participants are actively restocking inventories amid constrained alternative vegetable oil supplies and potential trade disruptions, resulting in cautious but firm trading sentiment throughout the quarter.
In the Netherlands, soybean oil prices rose by 6.11% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 1128 per metric ton. The intra-quarter trend remained relatively flat, reflecting stable monthly prices despite external cost pressures. Elevated input costs, supply chain constraints, and increased demand from key importers underpin this bullish trend. Near-term outlook suggests continued price support driven by inventory restocking, export reliance, and limited alternative oil supplies, maintaining a cautiously optimistic market stance.
South America
The South American soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by robust demand driven by global consumption growth, particularly in biodiesel and food sectors. Supply constraints due to adverse weather and rising production costs are exerting upward pressure on export prices. Currency depreciation in key producing countries enhances export competitiveness but simultaneously inflates local costs. Inventory levels remain sufficient, tempering extreme volatility, while traders' cautious stockholding supports a generally bullish market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
In Brazil, soybean oil prices increased by 3.84% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 928/MT during the current quarter. The intra-quarter price trend was relatively flat, reflecting balanced market dynamics amid sufficient inventories. Price movements were influenced by rising input costs, inflationary pressures, and tightening oilseed supplies, offset by strong export demand and currency depreciation. The overall trend is moderately bullish, with near-term prospects indicating continued price support.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Soybean Oil market began the fourth quarter with a notable upward trend but ended the period on a more negative note. This shift was influenced by various factors, including global demand-supply fluctuations, which kept overall prices on the decline.
From October to November 2024, prices saw upward pressure driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly from the renewable diesel sector. Policy incentives for biofuel production, coupled with an increasing demand for renewable energy feedstocks, tightened soybean oil supplies, which were already strained by unfavorable weather conditions, especially in the Midwest, leading to reduced soybean yields. Additionally, global competition, particularly from Brazil, further exacerbated these challenges, keeping prices elevated despite modest increases in domestic production. Furthermore, In November, the U.S. soybean crop was revised downward due to persistent droughts and heat, raising concerns about supply shortages and temporarily supporting soybean futures. The USDA's WASDE report highlighted strong biofuel demand, sustaining upward price momentum.
However, by December, the market shifted due to global oversupply, particularly from Brazil, and lower crude oil prices reduced biodiesel demand. The stronger U.S. dollar and increased competition from alternative oils like sunflower oil further pressured soybean oil prices. Economic uncertainties, including inflation and potential global slowdown, also dampened demand, leading to a price decline and a slight reduction in ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's soybean oil market saw considerable price fluctuations due to various domestic and global factors. In October, export prices surged as soybean crushing margins remained favorable, boosting production volumes. This, combined with strong global demand for vegetable oils, particularly amid tight palm oil supplies and reduced soybean production forecasts in major exporting nations like the US, pushed prices higher. Concerns over potential supply shortages further intensified demand, prompting international buyers to secure stocks. In November, China's soybean oil export prices continued to rise, supported by strong domestic demand, especially from the food and biodiesel sectors, which limited exportable supply. Global soybean oil supplies were tight due to reduced production and logistical disruptions in key producing regions, reinforcing higher prices. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan also made exports more competitive, despite the rise in local prices. However, by December, soybean oil prices began to soften. Weakened demand from downstream sectors like food processing and livestock, alongside concerns about potential policy changes, dampened market sentiment. Additionally, strong domestic supply and competitive pricing of alternatives like sunflower oil contributed to the decline in prices, leading to a bearish outlook for the market.
Europe
During the entire fourth quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s soybean oil market experienced fluctuations primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, logistical challenges, and shifting global demand dynamics. In October, a surge in export demand, particularly from Europe and Turkey, was observed, supported by rising global consumption of Ukrainian soybeans. This export momentum, fueled by competitive pricing, pushed soybean oil prices upwards, despite broader challenges within Ukraine’s agricultural sector, such as reduced acreage for other crops and increasing logistical costs. The global balance of soybean-derived product prices also played a significant role, with favorable weather in Brazil supporting a bumper harvest, while the U.S. faced slight yield reductions, thus reinforcing Ukraine’s market positioning. However, the conflict with Russia continued to hamper Ukraine's overall economic stability, as reflected in the PMI data indicating a contraction in manufacturing and services, coupled with inflationary pressures and reduced demand from key trading partners. In November, soybean oil prices remained elevated, bolstered by sustained export demand, but limited by domestic logistical constraints and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Concurrently, global competition from palm and sunflower oil further supported soybean oil's price momentum. However, by December, a shift occurred as soybean oil prices fell, primarily due to abundant supply from an increased harvest and high inventories. This surplus was compounded by weak export opportunities and limited domestic demand, exacerbated by competition from sunflower oil. The depreciation of both the euro and hryvnia against the dollar also dampened purchasing sentiment. Seasonal slowdowns, alongside reduced consumer purchasing power and less industrial activity during the holidays, contributed to further downward pressure on prices. Consequently, while Ukraine's soybean oil exports benefited from global trends, the domestic market experienced an overall decline due to excess supply and muted demand.
South America
In Q4 2024, Brazil's soybean oil market faced a significant downward trend due to various domestic and international factors with a modest rise witnessed in the end of the quarter. In October, export prices dropped due to an oversupply of soybean oil, fueled by favorable weather for soybean planting and reduced global demand. Economic challenges in major importing countries, combined with high domestic inventories, led to lower imports, while cheaper alternatives like palm oil gained traction. The depreciation of the Brazilian real also made exports more competitive, contributing to downward price trends. November saw continued pressure as Brazil's soybean production increased by 10% year-on-year, and global stocks reached record highs. Additionally, Argentina’s recovery further intensified competition, while Brazil’s biodiesel policy diverted more oil for domestic use, limiting exports. This resulted in a decline in exports, totaling just 2.55 million tons compared to 5.2 million tons in 2023. Lastly, in December, adverse weather and logistical issues tightened supply, while global demand, particularly from Asia and Europe, increased, pushing prices higher despite the real depreciation. Moreover, global market dynamics, including price fluctuations in related vegetable oils like palm and sunflower oil, exerted upward pressure on soybean oil prices. Lastly, Brazil's biodiesel production mandates, coupled with increasing export activities, further strained the domestic market, pushing prices even higher during this period, and keeping the overall market trading sentiments on the northerly side.
