Global Polyolefin Elastomer Prices Dip Amid Reduced Demand and Lower feedstock Costs

In the global market, the price of Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) experienced a slight decrease as of mid-October. This decline in the POE price is mainly attributed to reduced demand from downstream users, prompting manufacturers to lower their ex-quotation prices for key feedstock polyolefins, which has significantly affected POE production and inventory management. Additionally, a substantial drop in ethylene prices has further contributed to the decline in POE prices during this period.

In the European market, particularly in Germany, POE prices witnessed a marginal 0.4% decline as of mid-October. This decrease in the POE is aligned with reduced demand from the downstream market. In the feedstock sector, Ethylene prices fell by 5.3% from previous highs. Several polyolefin producers announced price reductions ranging from EUR 60/ton to EUR 250/ton, although supply remains tight. Additionally, the Grangemouth refinery in the UK is set to close in Q2 2025 due to Petroineos’ $775 million losses, leading to around 400 job cuts and impacting INEOS and Versalis Italy's polyolefin production capabilities. Several polyolefin producers, including Sabic, are considering closing European sites and importing products from Asia or the Americas. Sabic plans to bring polyolefin granules from its Saudi Arabian plants, reflecting a shift towards cost efficiency amid rising operational costs in Europe. In the downstream automotive sector, total sales reached 208,848 units in September, marking a 5.8% increase compared to August, though reflecting a 7.0% year-on-year decrease, according to the KBA federal transport authority. Meanwhile, the German construction sector continued to struggle with sharp declines in industry activity in September. New orders dropped significantly, and construction firms expressed increasing pessimism about future output, leading to an accelerated rate of job cuts. These combined factors have influenced the dynamics of the POE market in Europe.

In the US market, POE prices marked a notable decrease during the respective period. This decrease in the POE price aligns with the significant drop in Ethylene prices, which saw a reduction of 29.5% from the upper levels. From the downstream market, vehicle sales in the U.S. also experienced a sharp decline, with approximately 1.17 million units sold, reflecting a 21.4% decrease from the previous month and a 14.5% drop compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, the construction sector added 25,000 jobs in September, with both non-residential and residential contractors increasing their workforce at a faster rate than other industries, according to data from the Associated General Contractors of America. Construction spending for August 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,131.9 billion, which is slightly down by 0.1% from the revised July estimate of $2,133.9 billion but represents a 4.1% increase compared to the August 2023 estimate of $2,047.4 billion. The U.S. manufacturing sector, however, faced ongoing challenges, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping below the threshold limit. These performance in the downstream market, coupled with reduced pricing from manufacturers, have cumulatively pushed the price of POE downward.

According to ChemAnalyst's projections, the price of POE is expected to display bearish momentum in the upcoming sessions. This outlook for the POE price is driven by reduced feedstock prices from manufacturers and lower demand from the downstream market, both contributing to the anticipated decline in POE prices in the near term. The current downward price trend in POE suggests that market participants are hesitant to engage in long build-up activities. This reluctance is likely to hinder POE pricing dynamics in the upcoming sessions, further contributing to the existing downward momentum.