For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market experienced a significant price drop, with the USA seeing the most pronounced changes. The overall trend was characterized by a consistent decline, despite positive performance in key sectors like the Automobile and Construction industries.
The primary driver behind the falling POE prices was the decline in crude oil, which caused olefin monomer prices to drop—directly impacting POE pricing. The market saw a notable -13.82% decrease compared to the same quarter last year and a further -2.71% drop from the previous quarter, reflecting a sustained downward trend.
Oversupply, reduced demand, and ongoing market uncertainties contributed to the bearish sentiment throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Butene-Based POE in the USA was USD 2560/MT FOB New Orleans, underscoring the persistent decline in prices. This negative pricing environment was largely shaped by weakening feedstock costs and muted downstream demand, leading to steady price reductions across the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in the APAC region experienced a price decline, primarily due to several influencing factors. A key contributor to this decrease was the oversupply relative to demand, which created a downward pricing trend. Additionally, weakened demand from critical sectors such as automotive and construction further impacted pricing. The ongoing drop in crude oil prices significantly affected olefin monomer prices, with Ethylene specifically showing a 5.60% decline from the previous quarter. The market sentiment was predominantly negative, evidenced by a 5.55% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, along with a 1.35% decline from the previous quarter in 2024, reinforcing the downward trajectory. While the automobile sector in the Asian market saw a notable uptick, the construction sector underperformed, particularly in major economies like China, which adversely affected POE demand. By the end of the quarter, the price of Butene-Based POE in Japan settled at USD 2750/MT CFR Tokyo, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment in the pricing landscape.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in Europe experienced a significant decline in prices, particularly in Germany, which saw the most pronounced changes. The quarter was marked by a challenging market landscape driven by various factors, including reduced demand in crucial sectors like automotive, electronics, healthcare and construction, which played a vital role in pushing prices lower. Additionally, volatile ethylene feedstock costs and lackluster market activity further exacerbated the downward price trend. Recent market updates indicate that producers have reduced the prices of olefin monomers, which has substantially impacted the pricing of POE from end suppliers. However the underperformance in the European economy has majorly affected the price of the POE towards lower side. Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices reflected a notable decrease of -10.76%, underscoring a sustained negative pricing trend. Furthermore, a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.30% highlighted the ongoing decline. By the end of the quarter, the price for Polyolefin Elastomer Butene-Based in Germany reached USD 2560/MT FD Hamburg, illustrating the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market's pricing dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 has been marked by a distinct downward trend in Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) pricing across the North America region. The significant factors influencing market prices this quarter include persistent destocking activities by suppliers, an oversupply relative to demand, and constrained capacity utilization due to logistical disruptions and cost management measures. In contrast the Automobile sector witnessed positivity in the numbers in the respective period which supported the POE price to some extent.
In the USA, which has experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall market sentiment has been negative. The quarter witnessed a -16.7% decrease in prices compared to the same period last year, reflecting an ongoing supply glut and reduced purchasing activity. From the previous quarter in 2024, there was a -2% decline, suggesting a sustained but moderate reduction in price levels.
The latest quarter-ending price for Butene-Based Polyolefin Elastomer FOB New Orleans in the USA stands at USD 2663/MT. This consistent decrease highlights a negative pricing environment, driven primarily by an imbalance between supply and demand and strategic inventory management by suppliers. Despite growth in certain downstream sectors, the pricing dynamics for POE have not seen significant positive adjustments, leading to a sustained bearish outlook for the period.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region faced a notable decreasing trend in prices. The quarter was characterized by various factors contributing to this decline, with balanced supply and demand dynamics playing a significant role. Production levels were consistently stable, ensuring inventory adequacy, while demand from major downstream sectors like construction and automotive remained modest. Despite positive economic indicators in some territories, global economic uncertainties and fluctuating feedstock costs, especially for ethylene, further pressured market prices. Specific to the Japanese market, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, POE prices demonstrated a marked decline. The overall trend was predominantly downward, influenced by seasonality and weakened industrial activities. The correlation in price changes reflected a concerted response to diminished demand coupled with an ample supply. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices fell by 6.2%, underscoring a negative pricing environment. However, relative stability was observed from the previous quarter of 2024, with no substantial percentage change, indicating a plateauing effect following earlier declines. The latest quarter-ending price for POE Octene Based in Japan settled at USD 3153/MT CFR Tokyo, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen a consistent downward trend in Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) prices across the European region. This decline is primarily driven by a combination of factors, including supply chain disruptions, subdued demand from key sectors, and an oversupply of raw materials. Manufacturers and suppliers have been actively engaging in destocking activities, which has further exacerbated the price decline. The construction sectors, traditionally significant consumers of POE, have shown tepid demand while this bearishness is balanced to some extent by the improvement in the Automobile sales, contributing to the overall weak market sentiment. In Germany, the market has experienced the most pronounced price changes within this context. The overall trend for POE in Germany has been markedly negative, influenced by the declining performance of the construction sector and only moderate activity in the automotive industry. The correlation between reduced inventory accumulation and declining prices is evident, reflecting cautious market behavior. From the same quarter last year, POE prices in Germany have fallen by 16.4%, underscoring a significant annual decrease. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, there has been no percentage change, indicating a stable yet weak market environment. The latest quarter-ending price for Polyolefin Elastomer Butene Based in Germany stands at USD 2865/MT FD Hamburg, encapsulating the negative pricing environment of Q2 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in North America a marginal surge in the first quarter of 2024. The construction and automobile sectors maintained moderate to high demand, contributing to a consistent market performance.
Market prices remained relatively steady, thanks to a well-balanced supply and demand dynamic and unchanged market sentiment. Suppliers reduced interest in inventory accumulation also played a role in maintaining stability. There were no reports of plant shutdowns during this period, ensuring a continuous supply of POE. It is important to note that the USA experienced more significant price fluctuations compared to other North American countries.
However, despite these fluctuations, prices remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, with a slight 1.14% increase in the Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. The latest price of Polyolefin Elastomer octene-Based FOB New Orleans in the USA for Q1 2024 stood at USD 2998/MT. Overall, this price reflection of POE prices in North America during this quarter can be attributed to the balanced supply and demand dynamics and the supplier's reduced inventory accumulation.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in the Asia-Pacific region experienced a marginal incline in the price. This incline is majorly attributed to the increase in the demand from the downstream Automobile, Construction, Packaging sector in the asian market.
This situation resulted in a moderate supply scenario, allowing buyers to have more options and potentially negotiate better prices. However, despite these market conditions, no plant shutdowns were reported during this period, ensuring a stable supply of POE. Among the countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan witnessed significant changes in POE prices.
The decline in new car sales and weakening factory activity influenced the demand for POE in Japan. However, despite challenges in the automobile sector, there was a positive correlation between the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the demand for various goods, including POE. In terms of price trends, the quarter ending price for POE Butene Based CFR Tokyo in Japan was USD 2905/MT. This price point reflected the market dynamics and the unique factors that affected the POE market in the Asia-Pacific region.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in Europe encountered various obstacles and market dynamics. The supply of POE remained moderate, indicating a balanced inventory availability. However, the demand for POE remained moderate to lower side from sectors such as Automotive, while the Construction sectors underperformed. Additionally, the global economic slowdown, highlighted by Germany's worst GDP contraction, further impacted the demand for POE in the European market.
The market situation overall remained stable, with moderate supply and low demand. Although no plant shutdowns were reported, suppliers were involved in destocking inventories. Nevertheless, there were some disruptions reported in the market.
Currently, the price of Polyolefin Elastomer Butene Based FD Hamburg in Germany for the first quarter of 2024 stands at USD 2714/MT marking a decrement of 1.23% from Q4 2023. Overall, the POE market in Europe during the first quarter of 2024 faced challenges including moderate supply, low demand from the downstream market like Automobile, Construction, Packaging, and other industrial sectors.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) prices in North America experienced a decline in the current quarter (Q4) of 2023 (Oct to Dec), primarily due to several factors. Firstly, the ongoing strikes organized by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union negatively impacted the downstream automotive industry, leading to a decline in demand for Polyolefin Elastomer.
Secondly, the new guidelines presented by the EU to reduce deforestation caused uncertainty in the rubber futures market and its synthetic counterparts, including Polyolefin Elastomer. Thirdly, increased energy consumption during winter in the region drove up energy costs, resulting in increased production costs for Polyolefin Elastomer.
The last year's same quarter price change was -12%, while the quarter-on-quarter percentage change was also -12%. The price percentage comparison between the first and second half of the quarter in the USA was -5%. The latest/quarter ending price of Polyolefin Elastomer Butene-Based FOB New Orleans in the USA in Q4 2023 was USD 2744/MT marking a decline of 4.55 %.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in the APAC region underwent significant price dynamics influenced by various factors. Primarily, a bearish trend outlook prevailed across the market in the respective region, resulting in price declines for Polyolefin Elastomer in countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, India, China, and Thailand.
This trend was characterized by manufacturers and traders destocking their inventories, prioritizing stock clearance even at the expense of profit margins. Notably, the Chinese market experienced a substantial plunge in Polyolefin Elastomer prices, while Thailand also witnessed a significant decrease in offers for Polyolefin Elastomers.
Despite the outperformance in the downstream Automobile and Construction sector market in the regional markets, the overall theme for APAC's Polyolefin Elastomer market in Fourth Quarter 2023 was a bearish outlook, leading to widespread price decreases. The latest reported price for Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) Butene Based CFR – Tokyo in Japan, in Fourth quarter concluded at USD 2840/MT, indicating a notable decline of 7.74 %.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Polyolefin Elastomer (POE) market in Europe faced a bearish trend characterized by moderate supply levels and diminished demand from key sectors like construction and automotive.
Germany, a prominent player in the European market, experienced significant price changes, witnessing a decline of 1.4% compared to the previous quarter and an even more substantial -11% change compared to the same quarter in the previous year. The downturn in demand from the construction industry, as predicted by economists, contributed to this decline. Despite the challenges, there is anticipation for an upswing in demand during the festive season and the beginning of the new year, potentially boosting consumer buying interest in Polyolefin Elastomer.
However, the overall economic scenario, as reflected in Germany's PMI data, indicated a drag on business activity in the broader Euro area. German construction activity faced continued challenges in 2023, driven by market uncertainty and high interest rates. The latest reported price for Polyolefin Elastomer Butene Based FD Hamburg in Germany for Q4 of 2023 stands at USD 2748/MT, reflecting a decline of 2.03%.
