Ammonium Nitrate Market Turns Bearish as Nitrogen Values Erode

The Ammonium Nitrate market declined following the conclusion of India's most recent purchase inquiry. There was no motive for either party to continue talks this week because neither producers nor buyers were under significant pressure to place cargoes. Ammonium Nitrate producers in Russia have re-entered the global market. This has resulted in a considerable fall in Ammonium Nitrate value on both a CFR and FOB basis. The recent weakening of the global urea market has been a major driver of Ammonium Nitrate prices, as buyers have refused to pay considerable premiums for Ammonium Nitrate over urea per unit of nitrogen.

While the market has been quiet, indicators of a negative mood have emerged in both the east and west. In Southeast Asia, Indonesian Ammonium Nitrate was sold at last reported levels for June shipment. However, regional manufacturers have admitted that demand for their neighbouring markets has remained flat, and customers are now looking for lower pricing. Small quantities of pills and Ammonium Nitrate have been offered in China at prices substantially below current Indian netbacks. On the other hand, pandemic crisis changed price dynamics, which may subside if the number of infections rises in the coming weeks. As a result, the price of Ammonium Nitrate has dropped over the last week.

Last week, producers in western Europe were able to take advantage of late-season demand from Mediterranean markets as well as summer demand in western Europe. However, because producers are sticking to their last-done price plans, discussions have stagnated this week, and most producers still have volumes available for June shipment.

Late-season import demand in the United States has not materialised. End-users made substantial purchases earlier in the season, and with planting progress slowed by bad weather, most are currently working through their stockpiles, resulting in little demand for new volumes. Barge prices have dropped about $360 per tonne from the region's all-time highs in late March, indicating that more Nola re-export business to Latin American markets is becoming more feasible.