For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited fluctuating price trends throughout Q3 2024, though it predominantly remained on the lower end. In the early part of the quarter, prices saw a significant decline, primarily driven by subdued demand from the key downstream fertilizer sector
Despite attempts by traders to stimulate prices in anticipation of heightened demand ahead of the upcoming planting season, these efforts did not fully materialize. The region was severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes, heavy rainfall, and storms, which disrupted agricultural cycles and restrained demand for Ammonium Nitrate fertilizers. Although prices experienced a modest recovery in August 2024, this was largely attributed to supply shortages rather than a resurgence in demand. The hurricanes caused significant production disruptions, limiting the availability of Ammonium Nitrate in the market. This supply-side constraint provided some upward pressure on prices.
However, by the latter part of the quarter, prices began to stabilize as the market adjusted to the production setbacks, and demand remained relatively weak in the face of ongoing weather-related challenges. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter-ending price of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York stood at USD 325/MT.
APAC
The Asian Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited a mixed trend during the third quarter of 2024. Prices declined during the initial and final month of the quarter, with China being the most significantly affected. Persistent port congestion within the region led to inventory buildups, as vessels faced extended waiting times—up to four days at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao, and three days at Port Klang. This ship bunching, a lingering effect of earlier port disruptions, has severely impacted the supply chain, contributing to the accumulation of stocks. Combined with subdued demand due to the end of planting season activities, these factors drove prices down. However, in August 2023, prices surged due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks. Typhoon struck China’s Hainan province, bringing torrential rains and winds. The typhoon caused widespread damage, resulting in extensive power outages and significant disruptions to daily life. These conditions further strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, exacerbating production challenges for key industrial sectors, including Ammonium Nitrate manufacturing. Additionally, preparations for winter planting began to pick up, boosting demand. As per Chemanalyst, the latest quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Qingdao was hovering at USD 430/MT.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of upstream Natural Gas and feedstock Ammonia. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonium Nitrate production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonium Nitrate prices. Demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Novorossiysk stood at USD 245/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a persistent downward trend in pricing, driven by a confluence of several significant factors. The principal reasons include reduced demand from key agricultural sectors, influenced by extreme weather conditions disrupting planting activities, and a decline in the price of essential feedstocks like Ammonia and Nitric Acid. These elements collectively exerted downward pressure on production costs, leading to lower market prices for Ammonium Nitrate.
Despite the ongoing planting season, demand remained subdued due to adverse weather patterns, including extreme heat waves, which impeded normal agricultural activities. Additionally, notable disruptions such as the force majeure declared by CF Industries Holding Inc. in Mississippi due to flooding, and the storm-induced shutdown at LSB Industries Inc. in Arkansas, exacerbated supply chain challenges, even though their impacts were short-term.
Seasonality played a crucial role, with the second half of the quarter reflecting an 18% price drop compared to the first half. The overall trend observed was a 30% decline from the previous quarter. These dynamics underscored a bearish market sentiment, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 375/MT of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York. Consequently, the Q2 2024 pricing landscape for Ammonium Nitrate in North America, particularly the USA, has been decidedly negative, marked by ample supply, muted demand, and adverse climatic disruptions.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market across the APAC region experienced a notable decline in prices, driven by several critical factors. The primary reasons for this downturn included an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate amid stable demand and a lack of new bids or inquiries from the international market, which led to a surplus that exerted significant downward pressure on prices. Focusing on China, where the most pronounced price changes occurred, the market was characterized by a consistent bearish sentiment. Despite the seasonal planting activities, the demand remained subdued, further exacerbating the price decline. The overall trend showed a correlation between oversupply and decreasing prices, with price reductions intensifying as market participants awaited further drops. The quarter's prices decreased by 11% from the previous quarter, reflecting a strong negative sentiment. A comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed an 8% decrease, underscoring the persistent downward trend. Concluding the analysis, the latest quarter-ending price for Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Shandong in China stood at USD 466/MT.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market experienced mixed sentiments. The prices declined during the initial two months of the quarter however, increased during the final month of the quarter Unfavorable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. However, as the quarter approached to its end the prices surged by USD 20/MT from the previous month owing to modest resurgence in demand. The international market saw a modest number of enquiries, influenced by China's absence from exports during this period. In the European Union, excessive rainfall has adversely affected crop growth and impeded field operations, particularly in Austria, France, Italy, and the Netherlands. This has led to reduced potential yields. Overall, these improved weather conditions across Europe and neighbouring regions have contributed to fluctuating demand for Ammonium Nitrate, as agricultural activities face challenges and uncertainties related to weather patterns and regional crop performances.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market in the North American region witnessed a notable decline, primarily attributed to the diminishing prices of crucial raw materials such as Ammonia and Natural Gas. This trend was further exacerbated by the milder winter weather conditions, which resulted in reduced production rates, consequently leading to a surplus of Ammonium Nitrate within the market.
Despite the ongoing corn and soybean planting seasons in Brazil, demand from this significant importing nation remained subdued due to the traditional festivities associated with Carnival, resulting in a temporary deceleration of agricultural activities. Conversely, a modest increase in demand was noted from the importing Asian market however it did not have any significant effect on Ammonium Nitrate price. In addition to it the supply of Ammonium Nitrate in the region was characterized as moderate to high, with substantial stocks readily available to cater to the requirements of end-users, persistent disruptions in the supply chain were evident due to delayed shipments to the Asian market. Meanwhile, domestic demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained subdued as the peak planting season concluded, compounded by adverse weather conditions impeding crop cultivation. Notably, no instances of plant shutdowns were reported during this period. Overall, the price of Ammonium Nitrate in the North American region experienced a decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. As of the final month of the quarter, the price for Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York in the USA stood at USD 510 per metric ton.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Ammonium Nitrate in the APAC region were influenced by a range of factors, creating a nuanced market environment. Notably, the Chinese market experienced a marginal 1% increase in prices during the initial month, driven by a confluence of factors such as supply shortages, trade uncertainties, and elevated shipping costs attributable to geopolitical disruptions. Challenges like factory equipment malfunctions and partial sales stoppages contributed to material shortages within China, further fuelling price escalation. Moreover, global trade uncertainties and disruptions in shipping routes due to rebel attacks in the Red Sea compounded pricing pressures. However, as the quarter progressed, prices began to decline. By the final month of the quarter, the price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Qingdao in China reached USD 520 per metric ton. In February 2024, domestic demand in China remained subdued due to Lunar New Year celebrations, although it gradually rebounded in anticipation of the upcoming planting season. Nevertheless, adverse weather conditions, including rain showers and snow, dampened consumer enthusiasm. Similarly, in the western market, demand remained limited despite the planting season, partly due to unfavourable weather conditions linked to the residual effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
Europe
The European Ammonium Nitrate market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 19.6% decline in prices in Russia. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions, particularly in Russia. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including Ammonium Nitrate. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market region prevailed mixed sentiments throughout the Q4 of 2023. The prices increased significantly in the first month of the fourth Quarter. The market was primarily impacted by the following factors. Firstly, increase in the price of essential feedstock Ammonia led to an increase in the production cost of Ammonium Nitrate.
Secondly, the demand for Ammonia and its derivatives including Ammonium Nitrate remained robust in the domestic market, particularly in anticipation of the forthcoming winter planting season, exerting upward pressure on prices. Lastly, the low availability of material within the regional market led to an increased price of ammonia within the country. Further, as the Chinese government curtail its fertilizers exports international consumers particularly Indian players were active in the North American market.
However, in November the market unfolded bearish sentiments and remained stagnant in December. This price dip is attributed to surplus availability of material in the market coupled with lacklustre demand. Persistent challenges at the Panama Canal, a critical global trade route originating in the USA, contributed to this scenario. Further, some shipping companies are opting to bypass the Suez Canal due to concerns about potential rebel attacks, choosing alternative trade routes instead. The limitations at the Panama Canal have compelled certain shippers to reroute exports, including Ammonium Nitrate, through the Suez Canal to access Asian markets. If the constraints at the Suez Canal persist, it may become increasingly challenging for the US to export Ammonium Nitrate, potentially resulting in an oversupply and subsequent reduction in prices. As a consequence of delayed shipments to the international market, there has been an accumulation of Ammonium Nitrate inventories within the country. Moreover, the demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained subdued in the United States, coinciding with the conclusion of the peak fertilizer season.
APAC
The Ammonium Nitrate market in the APAC region prevailed mixed sentiments throughout the q4 of 2023. The prices declined in the first of the quarter due to surplus availability of material within the Chinese market. After China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has continued to halt exports of fertilizers there is surplus availability of material in the market. Further, with the autumn season sweeping away demand for Ammonium Nitrate from the end-user fertilizer market remained subdued. However later the prices increased by a significant margin. Increasing price of essential feedstock Ammonia prompted towards higher production cost thus exerting upward cost pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices. Further, during this period, there was a deficiency in imports from the European Ammonium Nitrate market. The redirection of merchant ships from the Red Sea, prompted by the imminent threat of attacks from Houthi militants off Yemen, resulted in a notable surge in freight charges as many shippers altered their shipping routes. However, demand from the significant downstream fertilizer industry remained subdued, as the peak planting season had concluded.
Europe
The European Ammonium Nitrate market prevailed downward trajectory throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. This price dip is primarily attributed to surplus availability of the material in the market coupled with lacklustre demand from the prominent downstream user fertilizer industry. At the onset of this quarter Buyers were closely watching nitrogen prices as some speculate prices may drop in the coming months. The next seasonal demand window will open in Spring 2024, so they were in no rush to purchase Ammonium Nitrate at present. However, adverse weather conditions within the region along with heavy rainfall posed to be a potential threat for the crops. This has further dampened the buying enthusiasm of Ammonium Nitrate consumers for Spring 2024. Additionally, trade uncertainties amidst rebel attacks in the Red Sea had caused the traders to opt for alternative trade route. In an effort to avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, leading to a surge in European port inventories. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply thus supporting the current price dip.
