For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Vitamin D market in North America experienced significant upward pressure during Q3 2024, with the United States emerging as the focal point of substantial market volatility. Price negotiations witnessed a notable surge from July to September 2024, reflecting unprecedented market dynamics. This dramatic market evolution stems from an intricate interplay of challenging industry variables and broader economic pressures.
Consistent consumption patterns from domestic pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical industries, coupled with excessive supply volumes, created significant market imbalances. The market faced considerable strain amidst multiple operational challenges, including maritime congestion, heightened shipping expenses, and ongoing distribution network disruptions. The situation was further aggravated by oversupply conditions in the domestic market, creating downward pressure across the American consumer goods sector.
The substantial price appreciation across the quarter reflects the market's complex dynamics and challenging supply-demand imbalance. This upward trajectory diverges from typical regional patterns, highlighting the North American Vitamin D market's current volatility amid ongoing supply chain complexities. The combination of suppressed regional demand, excessive supply volumes, and logistical hurdles has created a particularly challenging pricing landscape.
APAC
The Vitamin D landscape in Asia-Pacific maintained steady pricing dynamics in Q3 2024, marked by balanced market conditions. China's market demonstrated remarkable stability, maintaining its position as a regional price benchmark. The market showed consistent price levels FOB Shanghai between July and September 2024, reflecting well-balanced market fundamentals.
This market stability was supported by harmonized operational factors and steady market dynamics. Demand patterns showed regular procurement from food fortification and nutritional sectors, while supply elements remained well-controlled, with stable production costs and operational overheads. The balance between production capacity and logistical frameworks helped maintain market equilibrium.
Market consistency was evidenced through reliable buyer engagement and predictable order patterns. These steady demand indicators, combined with well-managed operational factors, enabled industry participants to maintain stable margins. China's domestic market continued to provide steady regional price trends, influenced by balanced international procurement patterns and domestic consumption dynamics.
Europe
The European Vitamin D landscape exhibited stable price movements during Q3 2024, with Germany functioning as the primary indicator of market equilibrium. The quarter concluded with steady prices CFR Hamburg, reflecting consistent market conditions. Market stability in the German Vitamin D market resulted from balanced supply capabilities and demand patterns. Manufacturing processes, particularly in Asian production centers, maintained regular output levels influencing price consistency.
The stable pricing environment was supported by predictable demand from food processing, beverage manufacturers, and nutritional sectors maintaining steady procurement activities. Germany's market trends provided a reliable benchmark for European pricing patterns, exhibiting consistent seasonal performance. The market maintained its stability despite ongoing operational challenges, underlining the European Vitamin D market's fundamental resilience. The balance between supply availability, sectoral demand patterns, and regional market forces fostered a stable pricing environment across Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 has been marked by a consistent decline in Vitamin D prices within the North America region, driven predominantly by supply-demand imbalances and global market volatility. Significant factors contributing to this trend include disruptions in international trade flows, escalating freight costs, and the high inventory levels maintained by domestic suppliers. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and natural calamities have further exacerbated supply chain disruptions, leading to increased operational costs for importers and manufacturers.
Focusing exclusively on the USA, the country has experienced the most pronounced price changes in this period. The overall market trend has been characterized by a downward pricing trajectory, reflecting the broader economic challenges and sector-specific disruptions. Seasonally, the second quarter typically sees less demand, which has been compounded by the ample stock levels from previous periods. A further 1 basis point price drop was observed between the first and second half of the quarter, underscoring a persistently negative pricing environment.
By the end of Q2 2024, the price of Vitamin D3 100,000 IU/g FOB New Jersey settled at USD 14,990 per MT. This continuous decline indicates a negative pricing environment, influenced by sufficient supply and moderate demand, creating a challenging market landscape for suppliers and producers. The consistent downward pressure reflects a market struggling with excess supply amid stable, but not necessarily robust, demand levels.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a marked downturn in Vitamin D prices across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, driven by several significant factors. The ample supply juxtaposed with dwindling demand has been the primary catalyst for the declining prices. Overproduction in response to earlier market optimism led to increased inventories, while a softening in consumer demand, particularly in the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors, compounded the pricing pressure. Additionally, logistical challenges and high freight rates further exacerbated the situation, compelling suppliers to reduce profit margins to maintain competitiveness. The economic slowdown in key markets also played a pivotal role, diminishing purchasing power and reducing overall consumption of Vitamin D products.
Focusing exclusively on China, the country experienced the most substantial price fluctuation, reflecting the overall regional trend. Seasonal effects, typically influencing a spike in demand during certain periods, failed to counteract the downward momentum. The correlation between excessive supply and reduced market activity was stark, leading to a significant year-over-year decline of 24%. Compared to the preceding quarter, prices contracted by 3%, indicating a steady yet persistent decrease.
The quarter-ending price for Vitamin D3 100,000IU/g FOB Qingdao in China was USD 9150 per metric ton, reflecting an unequivocally negative pricing environment throughout the quarter. The persistent decrease in prices suggests that the market conditions remained challenging, with a clear imbalance between supply and demand dynamics shaping the market landscape.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a persistent decline in Vitamin D prices across the Europe Region, driven by a confluence of factors. Foremost among these is the ample stockpiling of Vitamin D by suppliers anticipating potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to an oversupply situation. Moreover, decreased demand from end-user sectors such as pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, coupled with reduced procurement activities, further exacerbated the downward price trend. The stabilization of shipping routes post-Red Sea conflict and reduced freight costs also contributed to the lowering of prices, as did the diminishing prices of Vitamin D in key manufacturing hubs like China, which facilitated cheaper imports.
Germany, experiencing the most significant price fluctuations, saw an overall -7% decline in Vitamin D pricing compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting a stark shift in market dynamics. The quarter-on-quarter comparison within 2024 also showed a -1% decrease, indicating sustained negative pricing sentiment. These trends highlight a market grappling with excess supply and tepid demand, despite efforts to stabilize inventory levels and pricing structures.
By the end of Q2 2024, the price of Vitamin D3 100,000IU/g CFR Hamburg in Germany had settled at USD 9,920 per metric ton, affirming the negative pricing environment. The consistent decline in prices throughout the quarter suggests a market correction phase, influenced heavily by macroeconomic factors and supply chain adjustments.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, despite a promising start, Vitamin D prices in the North American market experienced a downturn. Several factors played a role in this shift, leading to an overall decrease in price trends. In the USA, the most substantial price changes occurred, with prices initially increasing until mid-quarter, followed by a decline in March. Vitamin D supplement prices dropped from $16,055/mt in January to $15,750/mt FOB New Jersey by March. Market conditions were influenced by fluctuating demand, product availability, rising freight costs, and decreased imports from Asia. To address these challenges, U.S. authorities worked with industry partners to enhance real-time monitoring of freight movements, especially focusing on nutraceutical shipments from China. The conclusion of 2023 saw disruptions in supply chains and trade due to security issues in the Red Sea, leading to substantial increases in freight charges. These disruptions affected trade routes, causing congestion at U.S. ports and disruptions in the Panama Canal, influencing commodity prices.
During the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, shipments were temporarily suspended. Despite predictions of increased demand for nutraceuticals, including Vitamin D, after the post-holiday market recovery in China, the expected rise in the U.S. did not occur as forecasted. Nevertheless, demand in the U.S. remained stable until the latter part of Q1, bolstered by new stocks from local suppliers. Subsequently, with abundant supply on hand, U.S. suppliers then reduced their price quotes and narrowed their profit margins in March. As prices started to decline in March, reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, alongside decreasing freight charges, played a significant role. This decreased demand coincided with an oversupply of Vitamin D from domestic sources, further complicating market dynamics. Moreover, waning interest from Asian markets, notably China, also contributed to the price depreciation.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin D market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, especially in China, saw modest growth. Prices in China rose slightly from $8,760 per metric ton in January to $8,780 per metric ton FOB-Shanghai by March, marking a 0.23% increase over the period. This positive trend in March represented a significant improvement from the challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023, which included subdued demand, limited new inquiries, and surplus inventory.
Starting from mid-January 2024, demand began to strengthen steadily and maintained momentum through March, indicating a recovery in market sentiment. The first quarter of 2024 showed notable improvement with increasing prices, reflecting a more balanced supply-demand relationship. This upward trend enabled participants in the Chinese market to sustain healthy profit margins throughout the quarter. However, growth decelerated in March, with prices seeing a minor dip. Even during the Lunar Chinese New Year holidays, the domestic Vitamin D market remained robust, bolstered by strong manufacturing activities leading up to the holiday and the availability of fresh inventory. Moreover, international demand for Vitamin D, especially from the pharmaceutical and other sectors, added complexity to the supply-demand dynamics, influencing market trends later in the quarter.
Despite challenges such as declining consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, youth unemployment, reduced exports, and a drop in foreign investment, China's manufacturing sector showed resilience. The domestic Vitamin D market in China saw significant improvements, marked by an uptick in demand and manufacturing output.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin D market in Europe displayed a complex pricing landscape, shaped by various factors. Generally, the market remained fairly steady, with moderate fluctuations and no major price upheavals. Examining the trend and seasonality of Vitamin D prices in Germany in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed no significant deviations compared to the previous year. The relationship between prices and market conditions stayed relatively stable throughout the quarter. As Europe's largest Vitamin D market, Germany witnessed both positive and negative price movements. Prices started at $9,970/mt in January and saw a slight increase to $10,050/mt by March CFR Hamburg. This stability was maintained by consistent demand despite disrupted supplies from Asia.
The European economy faced uncertainties during this time, including rising energy costs and the introduction of interest rate hikes. These factors created a delicate market environment for Vitamin D, complicating efforts to maintain price stability. Until mid-February, several factors influenced Vitamin D prices in Germany. Increased import costs from China, intensified by disruptions in the Red Sea and Chinese New Year festivities, put pressure on prices. Additionally, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, such as the Euro's decline against the USD, added to the financial difficulties for German importers.
In March, prices saw a slight decline due to abundant supply and decreased demand. In summary, the Vitamin D market in Germany was influenced by factors such as inflation, federal taxes, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Vitamin D market had a minor decline in price trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was ascribed to a decline in end-user demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries. Instability and an abundance of vitamin D on the shelves of domestic vendors characterized the market. The US Vitamin D market was cautiously optimistic towards the conclusion of the quarter, despite the difficulties posed by growing energy costs and unstable prices.
At the outset of the quarter, Vitamin D prices were recorded at $16,950/MT and tapered down to $15,910/MT FOB New Jersey by the quarter's close. Analysts observed minimal upward movement across various vitamins, with many remaining in a consolidation phase. Import volumes in Q4 2023 surpassed those of Q4 2022, suggesting that retailers may have completed destocking and were preparing for the holiday season in December.
As the quarter drew to a close, the American economy in 2023 was characterized as "miraculous." Despite concerns surrounding an imminent recession and managing inflation without substantial job losses, the US economy not only sidestepped recession but also displayed accelerated growth overall. In the final weeks of December, heightened consumer spending in the U.S. positively influenced the Vitamin D industry, resulting in price increases.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Vitamin D market in the APAC region exhibited diverse trends, with certain products experiencing price increases while others saw declines. Overall, the pricing chart for Vitamin D remained relatively stable throughout Q4 2023, indicating a negligible decline. Enhanced offtakes and export pricing contributed to higher Vitamin D prices across the Asia Pacific region, including China and India in the latter part of the quarter. However, demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors decreased, especially in November, leading to an imbalance in the market. Conversely, the nutraceutical market in India expanded due to improved economic conditions, increased production levels, and higher levels of new business inflows. In China, weak international demand resulted in significant price reductions despite increased production. The absence of new inquiries during the first half of the quarter from domestic or foreign markets further highlighted the decline in Vitamin D off-takes in China's end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. Vitamin D prices decreased from $8,990/MT to $8,660/MT from October to December. China's economy received attention in December due to improvements in PMI and better consumer confidence, with prices showing a gradual increase. Throughout the year, China's nutraceutical industry experienced mixed sentiments, with some product markets declining while others rebounded. Notably, the Vitamin D market demonstrated positive growth, with its price trend appreciating and ending the year on a promising note.
Europe
The European Vitamin D market remained static during the fourth quarter of 2023, following the US and Chinese trends. Due in large part to adequate supply levels, end-user demand from the food and beverage (F&B), pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical industries declined during the quarter, causing prices for Vitamin D to moderately dip. Due to the decrease in demand, there were fewer pricing discussions and limited new market inquiries. High supply levels also put pressure on the market, as domestic businesses kept large inventories in order to meet demand and over the fear of potential shortages ahead of the holiday season in December. The general decreasing trend in pricing was also influenced by the decline in energy prices. Furthermore, reduced end-user demand and sufficiency of vitamin D available on the domestic market are the main causes of the cost reduction. However, prices were reported at USD 8660/MT CFR Hamburg by December, demonstrating momentum in the German market by the conclusion of the quarter. Vitamin D quotations were seen increasing in China, a key exporter, in the latter part of the quarter, which contributed significantly to the price hike. As a result, vitamin D supplement purchases by German importers became more expensive, which encouraged local market expansion.
