For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Vitamin B12 market exhibited notable price appreciation during Q3 2024, with the United States emerging as the epicenter of significant price volatility. The quarter witnessed a quantifiable price escalation from $1,735,000/MT to $1,782,500/MT CFR Los Angeles between July and September 2024, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 4%. This upward price movement can be attributed to a confluence of market dynamics and macroeconomic factors.
Primary demand-side catalysts included intensified procurement activities in the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors, while supply-side constraints manifested through extended lead times and logistics challenges. The market demonstrated remarkable resilience despite encountering multiple operational headwinds, including port congestion, elevated transportation costs, and persistent supply chain perturbations. These challenges were further compounded by the downstream effects of price volatility in the Chinese market, a crucial global Vitamin B12 exporter, which created ripple effects throughout the U.S. nutraceutical industry.
The consistent price appreciation trajectory, particularly evidenced by the $47,500/MT increment over the quarter, underscores the market's robust fundamentals and sustained growth momentum. This pricing pattern aligns with broader regional market trends, indicating structural stability in the North American Vitamin B12 market despite prevailing logistical and supply chain challenges. The interplay between heightened regional demand, global supply dynamics, and logistical constraints has created a complex but fundamentally strong pricing environment in the North American market.
APAC
The Asia-Pacific Vitamin B12 market demonstrated significant price dynamics during Q3 2024, characterized by a robust upward trajectory. In China, the quarter registered a notable quarter-over-quarter price appreciation of 5%. The Chinese market, serving as a crucial standard for regional pricing trends, exhibited substantial price movement, with export values escalating from $1,500,000/MT to $1,573,750/MT FOB Shanghai between July and September 2024.
This price appreciation was underpinned by multiple market fundamentals and operational variables. On the demand side, sustained procurement activities from nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors maintained steady buying pressure. The supply-side economics were influenced by escalating production costs, encompassing raw material expenses and manufacturing overheads. The interplay between enhanced manufacturing output and logistical bottlenecks, particularly port congestion, created supply-demand imbalances that supported the upward pricing environment.
The market demonstrated strong fundamentals through consistent buyer inquiries and sustained order volumes. These demand patterns, coupled with operational challenges such as elevated freight costs and supply chain complexities, enabled both producers and suppliers to maintain favorable profit margins. The Chinese domestic market played a pivotal role in setting regional price benchmarks, with its pricing dynamics influenced by both robust international demand and heightened local consumption patterns. The correlation between increased manufacturing output and logistical constraints, particularly at major ports, created supply bottlenecks that further reinforced the upward price momentum in the APAC region.
Europe
The European Vitamin B12 market exhibited notable price appreciation during Q3 2024, with Germany emerging as the focal point of significant price volatility. The quarter culminated with prices reaching USD 1,702,500/MT CFR Hamburg in September 2024, reflecting the broader regional pricing dynamics. This pricing trajectory can be analyzed through multiple temporal comparisons: a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, an intra-quarter appreciation of 2% between the first and second half, and a year-over-year decline of 2%, collectively indicating a shift toward bullish market sentiment.
The price appreciation was driven by a complex interplay of supply-side constraints and demand-side pressures. Supply chain challenges, particularly in Asian manufacturing centers, created availability constraints that exerted upward pressure on prices. This was compounded by robust demand fundamentals, with pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors demonstrating sustained procurement activities.
Germany's market dynamics served as a representative indicator for broader European pricing trends, showcasing distinct seasonality patterns and price correlations throughout the quarter. The market demonstrated remarkable resilience despite various operational challenges, with the consistent price appreciation trajectory highlighting the structural stability of the European Vitamin B12 market. The convergence of supply constraints heightened sectoral demand, and regional market dynamics has fostered a positive pricing environment, characterized by sustained growth momentum and market stability across the European region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Vitamin B12 market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven primarily by multifaceted factors. This quarter has been marked by a consistent upward trajectory in Vitamin B12 pricing, influenced by heightened demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors, coupled with supply chain disruptions and elevated freight costs. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges, such as port congestions and extended shipping times, have exacerbated these supply constraints, compelling suppliers to adjust their price quotations accordingly. Additionally, the reduced inventory levels held by major suppliers created an environment of scarcity, further intensifying the upward pressure on prices.
Focusing on the USA, the country has seen the most pronounced price fluctuations within North America. The overall trend in the USA has been one of persistent price increases, influenced by strong local demand and a stable stream of new inquiries from end-users. Seasonally, demand remained robust, with no significant dips, reinforcing the correlation between sustained demand and rising prices. Comparing Q2 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a -9% change, highlighting a recovery from previous lower price points. However, when compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices have increased by 3%, showcasing a positive pricing environment. Within the quarter itself, the price change between the first and second half was recorded at 1%, indicating a gradual but steady increase.
Concluding Q2 2024, the price of Vitamin B12 in the USA reached USD 1715000/MT CFR Los Angeles, encapsulating the quarter’s consistent upward sentiment. This pricing environment has been predominantly positive, with suppliers benefiting from strong demand and constrained supply, fostering a market scenario conducive to higher profitability.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a noticeable upsurge in Vitamin B12 prices within the APAC region, driven primarily by several pivotal factors. This quarter has been characterized by robust demand from end-user industries, consistent manufacturing outputs, and an overall balanced supply-demand dynamic. Noteworthy elements fueling this price escalation include seasonal demand spikes, heightened production costs, and logistical challenges, especially surrounding freight and shipping disruptions. Additionally, preemptive stockpiling by international buyers wary of supply chain uncertainties has further exerted upward pressure on prices.
China, in particular, has experienced the most significant price fluctuations. The overall market trends in China indicate a resilient pricing environment, driven by steady domestic and international demand, seamless manufacturing activities, and strategic inventory management ahead of anticipated plant shutdowns. This quarter's Vitamin B12 price trajectory in China underscores a seasonally enhanced demand correlating with higher production costs and limited supply availability. The Q2 2024 pricing for Vitamin B12 in China exhibits a 4% increase from the preceding quarter, despite a year-over-year decrease of 7%, reflecting adaptive market strategies to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
Throughout Q2 2024, the price comparison between the quarter's two halves shows a 2% increase, demonstrating consistent market strengthening. Conclusively, the quarter culminated with a Vitamin B12 price of USD 1,485,000 per MT FOB Qingdao. In summary, the pricing environment for Vitamin B12 in the APAC region, and particularly in China, has been predominantly positive, driven by strong demand, supply chain resilience, and strategic market maneuvers.
Europe
The Vitamin B12 market in Europe experienced notable price increases throughout Q2 2024. This quarter was marked by several key factors that influenced market prices. A primary driver was the persistent imbalance between supply and demand, exacerbated by limited availability from major producing regions in Asia. Despite ongoing supply chain disruptions, demand from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage remained robust. This consistent demand, coupled with constrained supply, continually exerted upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, escalating production costs in producing regions, increased freight expenses, and logistical challenges all contributed to the rising cost of Vitamin B12 exports to Europe.
Focusing specifically on Germany, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the overall trend has been one of sustained price appreciation. The German market's strong demand, particularly in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, further tightened domestic supply conditions. Seasonality played a role as well, with demand spikes aligning with specific production cycles and consumer behavior patterns. The correlation in price changes reflected the broader European trend but was more pronounced in Germany. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices fell by 5%, but there was a 3% increase from the previous quarter in 2024.
By the end of the quarter, Vitamin B12 prices in Germany reached USD 1,635,000 per metric ton CFR Hamburg, underscoring a positive pricing environment driven by heightened procurement activities and sustained end-user demand. Overall, the pricing sentiment in Q2 2024 for Europe, and particularly Germany, has been distinctly positive, reflecting robust market fundamentals and ongoing supply constraints.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American Vitamin B12 market exhibited a balanced demand-supply landscape, with an upward price trend during the period. The United States, a pivotal market player in the region, maintained consistent product availability amidst sustained consumer interest. Prices increased from $1,641,250/mt in January to $1,670,000/mt CFR Los Angeles in March. However, market conditions were impacted by constrained product availability, rising freight costs, and diminished imports from Asia. In response, U.S. authorities collaborated with industry leaders to enhance real-time monitoring of freight movements, with a specific focus on nutraceutical shipments originating from China.
Given China's role as a major producer and the U.S. as a primary importer, shipments were temporarily halted in mid-February i.e., during the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Despite anticipation of increased demand for nutraceuticals, including Vitamin B12, following the post-holiday market resurgence in China, the projected surge in the U.S. did not materialize as forecasted by industry analysts. The conclusion of 2023 bought further disruptions in supply chains and trade due to the security crisis in the Red Sea, resulting in exorbitant freight charges. These disruptions affected various trade routes, causing congestion at U.S. ports on both the east and west coasts, impediments in the Panama Canal, and rate increases on alternative routes. Attacks on cargo vessels by Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea compelled shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal route, opting for longer alternative routes instead. Despite a marginal slowdown in the depletion of input and finished goods inventories mid-quarter, the pace accelerated in March due to rising international demand and declining freight costs.
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the subsequent closure of the Port of Baltimore on March 26, as analyzed by ChemAnalyst experts, are expected to have significant and widespread repercussions across the country, particularly impacting the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Looking forward, these ports may experience increased activity, further resulting in price increase.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin B12 market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region exhibited promising growth, particularly in China, where prices climbed from $1,360,000 per metric ton in January to $1,410,500 per metric ton FOB Shanghai by March. This positive momentum marked a significant turnaround from the challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023, which included subdued end-user demand, limited new inquiries, and surplus inventory. However, starting from mid-January 2024, demand began to rise steadily and maintained momentum through March, signaling a recovery in market sentiment.
In the first quarter of 2024, the market showed marked improvement with rising prices, indicative of a more balanced relationship between supply and demand. This upward trend enabled participants in the Chinese market to maintain healthy profit margins throughout the quarter. Even during the Lunar Chinese New Year holidays, the domestic Vitamin B12 market remained buoyant, supported by robust manufacturing activities and the availability of fresh inventory. Furthermore, the global demand for Vitamin B12, particularly from the pharmaceutical and other sectors, has added layers of complexity to the supply-demand dynamics, further influencing market trends.
Despite challenges such as declining consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, youth unemployment, reduced exports, and a decline in foreign investment, China's manufacturing output remained resilient. The Vitamin B12 market in China saw notable improvements, characterized by an uptick in demand and an increase in manufacturing output. During the latter half of the quarter, demand from international end-user industries began to rise, even amidst supply chain disruptions. Domestic sellers and traders capitalized on this opportunity, achieving healthy profit margins despite the prevailing challenges.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin B12 market in Europe encountered notable challenges, largely attributable to disruptions in trade routes and conservative consumer spending patterns. These trade disruptions, stemming from persistent disturbances in the Red Sea, led to shipment delays and escalated freight expenses, consequently affecting market prices. At the onset of the quarter in January, prices stood at $1,545,000/mt. However, by March, they had risen to $1,570,000/mt, indicating a substantial upward trend over the period.
At the commencement of Q1 2024, a decline in demand from end-user sectors such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals, compounded the market challenges in Germany. Furthermore, an oversupply situation in the market prompted sellers to lower prices to expedite inventory clearance until January end. Despite this, prices began to rebound in February, reaching $1,565,000/mt by month-end. The Chinese New Year celebrations in mid-February contributed to the price uptick, with many Chinese suppliers adjusting their prices ahead of the market hiatus. Concurrently, the prolonged disruptions in the Red Sea further hampered trade routes between Asia and Europe, leading to escalated freight costs and influencing the pricing landscape of Vitamin B12 in Germany.
Consequently, the German market witnessed significant price volatility during this period. Importers in Germany found themselves grappling with rising costs due to the heightened Vitamin B12 prices in China with the major reason affecting their supply chains i.e., trade disruptions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the current Q4 of 2023, the North American Vitamin B12 market remained unbalanced and subdued with trajectory going down. The market exhibited no significant variations in activity, primarily due to the imbalance between the supply and demand for Vitamin B12 and various other supplements. The oversupply of Vitamin B12 contributed to a slower expansion in demand, despite an increase in both US stocks and wholesale stocks last month.
The industry faced challenges from diminishing demand for commodities, including nutraceuticals, influenced by rising interest rates and consumer confidence. Despite the robustness of the US labor market, characterized by job additions and a decline in unemployment rates, the impact of rising interest rates and inflationary pressures led to a dampened consumer sentiment, affecting the nation’s dietary supplement market. Vitamin B12 prices started the quarter at $1,840,000/MT and concluded at $1,665,000/MT CFR Los Angeles, indicating an overall decline. Import levels in Q4 2023 surpassed those of Q4 2022, hinting that retailers may have completed destocking and were preparing for the holiday season in December.
By the quarter's end, the performance of the US economy in 2023 was considered "remarkable." Despite concerns about controlling inflation and potential job losses, the US economy successfully avoided a recession and demonstrated accelerated growth. Increased consumer demand in the United States, coupled with escalated freight charges, potentially influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict, led to price hikes in the Vitamin B12 industry in the final weeks of December, whose impact will be visible from the beginning of Q1 2024.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Vitamin B12 market in the Asia-Pacific region displayed distinct trends, with some products experiencing price increases while others saw declines. Overall, Q4 2023 witnessed a downward price trend for Vitamin B12 in China. This was attributed to an imbalance in the market caused by reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries, particularly notable in November. In contrast, India's nutraceutical market expanded due to improved economic conditions, heightened production levels, and increased new business inflows. Despite increased production, China experienced significant price decreases attributed to sluggish demand both locally and globally. Another indication of the decline in Vitamin B12 demand in China's pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors was the absence of fresh inquiries from overseas markets in the initial half of the quarter. From October to December, Vitamin B12 prices in China fell from $1,516,250/MT to $1,434,000/MT FOB-Shanghai. December brought attention to China's economy with improvements in the PMI and increased consumer confidence, accompanied by a gradual price uptick. In China, the nutraceutical market showed mixed outcomes throughout the year, with certain product categories declining while others recovered.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the European Vitamin B12 market witnessed a decline in prices. The market was adversely affected by high supply levels, as domestic businesses held substantial inventories to meet demand and alleviate concerns of potential shortages before the December holiday season. Furthermore, diminished end-user demand and the ample availability of Vitamin B12 in the domestic market were significant contributors to the price reduction. However, from October to December, Vitamin B12 prices decreased from USD 1,690,000/MT to $1,590,000/MT CFR Hamburg in the German market. The decrease in demand from Germany's downstream industries during the month was primarily due to significant stockpiles maintained by domestic companies, despite minimal shifts in market dynamics. A key influencing factor in these market dynamics was China, a major exporter, which lowered the price of Vitamin B12. Consequently, German importers benefitted from reduced prices when procuring Vitamin B12 supplements, leading to a corresponding decrease in prices within the local market. Additionally, the lack of fresh inquiries from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals nationwide prompted local sellers to offer the product at relatively lower prices.
