For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Index fell by 0.51% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
• The average Urea Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was approximately USD 388.33/MT, CFR Tampa.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price softened with arrivals, while Price Index reflected constrained export flows.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast indicates monthly oscillations driven by tariff changes and feedstock uncertainty.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend rose reflecting higher natural gas costs and tariff-driven premiums.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Demand Outlook expects seasonal tapering, winter refills supporting procurement and inventory management.
• Inventory pressures and restocking influenced availability, causing volatility in the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Index.
• Export route disruptions and plant curtailments limited volumes, amplifying Urea Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price sensitivity.
Why did the price of Urea Ammonium Nitrate change in September 2025 in North America?
• Reciprocal tariffs increased import costs, prompting advance purchases and compressing practical domestic supply for distributors.
• Seasonal application slowdown lowered immediate demand, while inventory rebalancing and freight trends moderated price momentum.
APAC
• In China, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Index fell by 3.1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting limited demand.
• The average Urea Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was approximately USD 374.67/MT in China.
• Domestic Urea Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price firmed while the Price Index reflected easing seasonal pressure.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend eased; ammonia and urea input costs declined, supporting margins.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Demand Outlook soft amid limited agricultural restocking and export enquiries supporting Price Index.
• Elevated domestic inventories and port congestion constrained distribution, limiting Urea Ammonium Nitrate exports and shipments.
• Major producers maintained steady operations while prioritising urea output, subtly tightening Urea Ammonium Nitrate availability for the short-term.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast indicates mild oscillations through winter with potential cost-driven upward pressure.
Why did the price of Urea Ammonium Nitrate change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Lower ammonia and urea input costs reduced production expenses, weighing on the UAN Price Index.
• Logistics delays constrained timely shipments, prompting traders to alter prices, attracting cautious domestic buyers.
Europe
• In France, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Index rose by 8.98% quarter-over-quarter, driven by constraints.
• The average Urea Ammonium Nitrate price for the quarter was approximately USD 360.00/MT, including imports.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Spot Price strength reflected tighter imports and transatlantic shipments altering short-term availability.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast shows modest oscillations as seasonal demand returns.
• Rising urea and nitrate feedstock costs lifted Urea Ammonium Nitrate Production Cost Trend, narrowing margins.
• Demand Outlook remains firm pre-application season, farmers deferring purchases but expected to restock soon.
• Price Index resilience reflected reduced inventories and export demand as regional buyers competed for cargoes.
• Operational outages and geopolitical disruptions constrained shipments, underpinning Urea Ammonium Nitrate pricing and uncertainty.
Why did the price of Urea Ammonium Nitrate change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Supply disruptions from geopolitical events and production outages reduced available UAN cargoes into Europe.
• Elevated feedstock and freight costs increased landed cost pressures, supporting higher offers despite muted buying.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Urea Ammonium Nitrate Price in North America have increased by 1.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a strong Price Index.
• The price of essential feedstock Ammonium Nitrate was also increasing during the same period of time prompting towards increased production cost thus exerting upward pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices.
• Domestic buyers remained cautious amid volatility in global tariffs and uncertainty around import sourcing patterns.
• Supply was disrupted further due to drone attacks on Russian nitrate plants and natural gas shortages in Trinidad, pushing up prices.
• Demand from agriculture remained steady due to heatwaves and a need to maximize crop yields.
Why did the price of UAN change in July 2025 in the US?
• The Price Index of imported UAN in the United States rose in July 2025, driven by a combination of tight supply, delayed shipments, and shifting demand dynamics.
• Key exporters like Trinidad and Russia faced production and export constraints. In Trinidad, natural gas curtailments reduced nitrogen fertilizer output, while in Russia, sanctions and internal disruptions from geopolitical conflicts limited outbound shipments. This squeezed the flow of UAN into the U.S. market, leading to reduced import volumes at a time of consistent downstream demand.
• While UAN application typically peaks in spring, residual and late-season nitrogen application continued across parts of the Midwest and the Southern U.S. in July. Wet weather in late Q2 had delayed some spring fieldwork, resulting in deferred fertilizer applications spilling into early Q3. This created pockets of active demand, particularly for top-dressing corn and cotton crops.
APAC
• The Chinese Urea Ammonium Nitrate market experienced mixed price trend during q2 2025.
• Price Index of UAN in China witnessed a significant upward trend in April 2025, continuing the momentum from March 2025.
• Despite a decline in feedstock prices such as Ammonia and Nitric Acid, their downward influence on UAN pricing was limited.
• Price Index of UAN in China declined slightly, marking a contrast to the sharp upward trend observed in April.
• Domestic supply was stable, with adequate availability of feedstocks like Ammonium Nitrate.
• Logistical bottlenecks at major ports (Ningbo, Shanghai, Qingdao) led to delays and increased domestic inventory buildup.
• Demand remained modest, with early-month restocking by farmers during the rice and cotton planting season, followed by cautious procurement as buyers awaited the onset of summer demand.
• International exports were stable but limited, mostly based on long-term contracts with countries like Indonesia, Japan, and Vietnam.
• Price Index of UAN in China stabilized, following the marginal decline in May.
• The stability in pricing was supported by a gradual recovery in fertilizer demand and a strategic move by traders to maintain pricing to attract international buyers amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
• Domestic production remained stable, with facilities like Shijiazhuang Zhongji ZhengRMB Chemical Co., Ltd. operating without disruptions.
• However, port congestion intensified due to shipping volume, tariff adjustments, and adverse weather—resulting in distribution delays and further inventory buildup.
• Domestic demand remained modest but consistent, aligned with seasonal fertilizer application for crops like rice and cotton.
• Export demand improved, partly driven by geopolitical factors (Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions), prompting international buyers to diversify supply chains and increasing reliance on China.
Why the prices change of UAN change during July 2025 in Asia?
• The UAN Price Index in Asia rose in July 2025, driven by a mix of tight global supply, strong seasonal demand, and cost-side pressures.
• July coincided with the kharif season in India and the peak wet-season planting period in much of Southeast Asia. This surge in demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, including UAN, created supply-side strain, especially as many buyers had deferred earlier procurement in anticipation of softer prices. The urgent in-season need led to spot market tightness and elevated pricing.
• With the expectation of continued supply constraints and no immediate price relief, several importers and government-backed agencies in Asia opted for aggressive short-term procurement, even at premium prices. This created a feedback loop where rising prices triggered faster buying, which in turn pushed prices higher.
Europe
• Price Index of imported UAN in the European market declined modestly in April 2025, reversing the price increase observed in March.
• However, as the quarter progressed the prices began to increase and sustained the upward trajectory throughout the quarter.
• The price index from May to June increased by 3.3% in France.
• Year-on-year increase of 18,000–19,000 tonnes in UAN import volumes between January–May 2025.
• France’s UAN supply chain remained highly exposed to external developments.
• Trinidad’s natural gas curtailments led to reduced production and exports.
• A drone attack in Russia disrupted nitrate production facilities.
• The Netherlands emerged as France’s top UAN supplier, followed by Trinidad and Russia.
• Additional U.S. cargoes were committed for upcoming deliveries as buyers sought more reliable sources.
• Purchasing activity remained muted as farmers prioritized the ongoing harvest season.
• Forward buying was limited, with growers waiting for post-harvest evaluations.
• Despite subdued demand, suppliers held firm pricing positions, buoyed by strong fundamentals and supply concerns.
• Buyers displayed caution in committing to forward contracts, especially amid trade uncertainties with Russia and fluctuating freight rates.
Why the prices of UAN change in July 2025 in Europe?
• The Price Index of imported UAN in Europe rose in July 2025, driven by a combination of persistent supply-side disruptions, geopolitical trade shifts, and tightening inventory levels, despite traditionally subdued demand during this period.
• European buyers continued to face import challenges due to delayed cargoes, congested ports, and inland transport disruptions. Critically low water levels in the Rhine River hindered barge movement, creating backlogs in UAN distribution from ports to inland markets like Germany, France, and the Netherlands. These constraints slowed the flow of already limited volumes, pushing import prices higher.
• In Europe, demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained firm during July, driven by delayed fertilizer applications from a wetter-than-expected spring. Growers were applying catch-up doses of nitrogen to support cereal and oilseed crops, leading to increased short-term procurement.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025, the North American Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market recorded a modest yet consistent price increase, primarily driven by seasonal demand and new tariff measures. In January, prices edged up despite muted demand and low freight rates, as strong import flows and expectations of high tariffs spurred early market activity. The tariff imposition in early February reduced import volumes and raised costs, tightening overall supply.
Concurrently, severe winter storms disrupt transportation networks and curtail production due to freezing conditions and operational halts, especially in key manufacturing regions. These disruptions coincided with the onset of spring fertilizer procurement, further straining availability.
By March, prices remained firm, supported by tight supply and a gradual rebound in agricultural demand as planting season neared. Ice buildup along export routes and delayed planting activity initially limited demand but picked up toward the end of the quarter. Overall, constrained logistics, production issues, and growing seasonal demand upheld a bullish trend across the North American UAN market throughout the quarter.
APAC
During Q1 2025, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market in the APAC region, particularly in India and China, witnessed a consistent downward trend in prices. In both countries, the decline was primarily driven by falling feedstock ammonia prices due to global oversupply and subdued demand from major industrial hubs. In India, prices fell sharply in January and continued a modest downward trajectory through March, supported by stable inventories, cautious procurement, and limited spot trading. Similarly, in China, UAN prices weakened amid tepid domestic demand and reduced export opportunities, with oversupply conditions and adequate stockpiles further weighing on the market. The presence of ample inventories, steady domestic production, and subdued downstream inquiries across both nations contributed to muted market activity. Additionally, above-normal temperatures in India raised concerns over rabi crop yields, leading to conservative purchasing behavior. Overall, the interplay of low feedstock costs, balanced supply-demand fundamentals, and weak seasonal demand maintained bearish sentiment in the APAC UAN market.
Europe
During Q1 2025, the European Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market saw a steady rise in prices, mainly due to persistent supply constraints and seasonal demand. Production was limited as major manufacturers like SKW Piesteritz faced operational challenges, while labor strikes, port closures, and delayed cargoes further tightened availability. In January, demand remained low amid harsh winter weather and limited agricultural activity. However, by February and March, restocking began as buyers prepared for the spring planting season, supporting a recovery in consumption. International demand, especially from Latin America, added further momentum to the price rally. Geopolitical tensions and the European Commission’s proposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers heightened uncertainty, making procurement more complex. Even though port operations started to normalize by mid-March, UAN supply remained constrained, keeping prices elevated. Overall, the market was shaped by a blend of logistical disruptions, tight production, and growing seasonal demand, resulting in a bullish trend that persisted throughout the quarter across the European region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) prices in North America followed a mixed trajectory, heavily influenced by supply constraints, demand fluctuations, and seasonal factors. October witnessed a significant price surge, largely driven by supply shortages resulting from logistical disruptions, adverse weather, and reduced production capacity. Labor strikes in Canada, hurricanes in the U.S., and technical issues at key facilities such as CF Industries’ Woodward plant intensified supply challenges, further pushing prices upward.
Although Ammonium Nitrate feedstock prices remained relatively stable, the limited supply and strong industrial demand continued to support upward pressure on UAN prices.
In contrast, November and December saw more stability in UAN prices, driven by proactive inventory management and more balanced demand-supply dynamics. Imports from Trinidad, a key supplier of UAN, were initially impacted by curtailments in natural gas supply but gradually recovered as supply constraints eased. Demand from the agricultural sector remained subdued due to unfavorable weather conditions and seasonal downturns, while industrial consumption continued at steady levels.
Asia-Pacific
In Q4 2024, Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) prices in the Asia-Pacific region exhibited a mixed trajectory, reflecting complex market dynamics. The Indian market saw a notable decline in UAN prices during December, marking a shift from earlier stability. This dip was primarily due to balanced demand-supply dynamics, with ample inventories from both domestic production and imports meeting the requirements of the agricultural sector, particularly for the Rabi planting season. Manufacturers effectively mitigated rising feedstock costs, such as Ammonia and Natural Gas, ensuring stable supply. Demand remained steady, driven by institutional tenders and preparations for peak planting seasons. However, logistical challenges, including delays at ports like Kattupalli in India and fears of dockworker strikes, disrupted supply chains, increasing freight costs and influencing procurement strategies. Subdued spot market activity also contributed to stable pricing across the region. Despite these disruptions, robust domestic production, well-managed inventories, and cautious procurement ensured market stability. Looking forward, the interplay of logistical challenges, feedstock costs, and seasonal demand will continue to shape UAN pricing in the Asia-Pacific region.
Europe
From October to December 2024, the European UAN market saw significant price fluctuations driven by a mix of supply disruptions, seasonal demand changes, and logistical challenges. In October, UAN prices surged due to a widening gap between supply and demand. Import restrictions, delayed shipments, and domestic rail strikes contributed to the shortage of UAN, while agricultural stakeholders rushed to stockpile supplies for the 2025 planting season. This increased demand, coupled with reduced imports, pushed prices upward. However, in November, prices stabilized as demand remained subdued, especially with buyers prioritizing existing contracts over spot purchases. Reduced production by LAT Nitrogen further limited supply, but the lack of significant market activity dampened price increases. By December, UAN prices rebounded sharply due to persistent supply constraints, including high raw material costs and geopolitical uncertainties, along with delayed shipments from key exporting countries. Despite low demand from the agricultural sector due to adverse weather and the holiday season slowdown, supply-side challenges continued to push prices higher.
