For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Urea Price Index fell by 4.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting demand weakness, ample supply.
• The average Urea price for the quarter was approximately USD 539.33/MT, reflecting muted buyer activity.
• Weak Urea Spot Price liquidity reflected limited seasonal buying and export offers pressuring domestic values.
• Urea Price Forecast indicates modest recovery risks if winter planting demand strengthens and supplies tighten.
• Urea Production Cost Trend showed modest upward pressure as natural gas costs remained elevated recently.
• Urea Demand Outlook remains subdued through autumn, with record inventories and muted farmer procurement activity.
• Urea Price Index movements were moderated by balanced river logistics, plant runs and competitive imports.
• Export demand weakness and Gulf Coast operating rates expanded inland stocks, constraining near-term recovery prospects.
Why did the price of Urea change in September 2025 in North America?
• Uninterrupted Gulf Coast production and steady gas flows increased domestic availability, amplifying downward price pressure.
• Late-summer seasonal demand lull and subdued farmer purchasing reduced offtake despite stable manufacturing and logistics.
• Competitive exports and elevated inland stocks pressured FOB values, with high input costs limiting declines.
APAC
• In Japan, the Urea Price Index rose by 12.66% quarter-over-quarter, driven by restocking, agricultural demand.
• The average Urea price for the quarter was approximately USD 477.67/MT, reflecting elevated freight costs.
• Urea Spot Price eased as import availability rose while the regional Urea Price Index moderated.
• Urea Price Forecast signals modest near-term weakness as the Price Index adjusts to seasonal lull.
• Urea Demand Outlook remains mixed; restocking supports volumes while seasonal lull broadly suppresses spot buying.
• Port congestion tightened short-term inventories, yet ample regional exports and weak demand pressured Price Index.
• Major regional producers resuming output increased offers, weighing on Urea Spot Price and near-term competitiveness.
Why did the price of Urea change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Resumption of full-scale regional exports increased import availability, creating downward pressure on Japanese urea pricing.
• Seasonal post-planting trough and rural depopulation reduced agricultural purchases, weakening domestic Urea Price Index momentum.
• Elevated freight rates and port congestion raised landed costs intermittently, though inventories remained relatively comfortable.
Europe
• In Germany, the Urea Price Index rose by 14.49% quarter-over-quarter, driven by import tariff front-loading.
• The average Urea price for the quarter was approximately USD 555.67/MT, reflecting front-loaded imports and logistics.
• Urea Spot Price remained stable as domestic inventories absorbed export-related tightness and seasonal buying paused.
• Urea Production Cost Trend rose with higher ammonia and natural gas costs, pressuring producer margins.
• Urea Demand Outlook remained subdued post-harvest, with distributors delaying purchases pending seasonal and policy signals.
• Urea Price Forecast indicates short-term weakness before seasonal recovery, contingent on inventories and export flows.
• Export demand from India and Brazil redirected volumes, tightening availability while German inventories provided cover.
• Major German producers ran steady, supporting local supply while logistics constraints and freight affected delivery.
Why did the price of Urea change in September 2025 in Europe?
• EU tariffs and sanctions reduced Russian and Belarusian supplies, prompting import front-loading and availability tightening.
• Low Rhine water levels constrained inland barging, increasing costs and delaying German fertilizer deliveries regionally.
• Strong procurement from India and Brazil diverted volumes, while domestic demand softened, weighing on prices.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Urea Price Index rose by 18.47% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export tightness.
• The average Urea price for the quarter was approximately USD 444.67/MT according to reported data.
• Urea Spot Price softened while regional Price Index eased as Saudi plants ran full rates.
• Urea Price Forecast signals range-bound movement as stable feedstock and rising production cost trend persist.
• Urea Demand Outlook remains firm from India procurement despite subdued regional domestic consumption and buyers.
• Inventory levels and export demand dynamics pressured Price Index amid shipping detours and higher insurance.
• Major Saudi producers operated at near full utilisation supporting steady exports and constraining Price Index upside.
• Urea Spot Price volatility reflected Indian tender timing and currency swings reducing Brazilian buying power.
Why did the price of Urea change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Full Saudi gas supplies, run rates swelled export volumes, increasing spot availability and pressuring prices.
• Indian procurement cycles absorbed prompt tonnage, tightening regional availability and sustaining short-term upward price pressure.
• Red Sea incidents forced longer voyage routings, inflating freight and insurance costs, underpinning FOB values.
South America
• In Brazil, the Urea Price Index rose by 12.00% quarter-over-quarter, driven by pre-planting procurement, logistics.
• The average Urea price for the quarter was approximately USD 441.67/MT across imported granular and prilled grades.
• Urea Spot Price firmed, softened as the Price Index reflected rising port inventories and offers.
• Urea Price Forecast indicates range-bound near-term movement as global tenders and logistics shape available supply.
• Urea Production Cost Trend eased slightly with lower upstream benchmarks, moderating import landed cost pressure.
• Urea Demand Outlook remains subdued post-planting, though low grower coverage could spur selective restocking later.
• Urea Price Index weakness mirrored abundant port stocks and subdued domestic buying, offsetting export-driven support.
• Operational outages and Middle East tensions intermittently constrained supply while redirected Russian volumes increased delivered availability.
Why did the price of Urea change in September 2025 in South America?
• Import saturation from July–August elevated port inventories, reducing buying urgency and pressuring Urea Price Index.
• Freight volatility and cyclone-related delays increased landed costs and intermittently tightened physical availability in Brazil.
• Global tenders, India, diverted shipments and altered seaborne flows, changing spot demand and local pricing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Urea Price in North America have increased quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a strong Price Index.
• Production disruptions at key facilities, including Coffeyville Resources (force majeure from June 3–6) and Koch Industries’ Dodge City plant, reduced regional availability, amplifying upward price pressure.
• Weather-related outages at Nutrien’s Augusta, Georgia plant and widespread spring storms impacted supply chains and further strained domestic inventories.
• In mid to late Q2 2025, Urea prices in the U.S. climbed sharply due to compounding supply disruptions, including facility outages and logistical delays linked to extreme weather events.
• Geopolitical tensions, notably the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and the introduction of "Liberation Day" tariffs (10% on most imported urea), intensified market uncertainty and constrained international trade flows.
• Demand received a seasonal boost from spring corn planting across the U.S. Midwest, along with a shift toward granular urea amid a shortfall in UAN (urea ammonium nitrate), reinforcing bullish sentiment.
• The announcement of new U.S. import tariffs contributed to reshuffling global procurement strategies, increasing demand for domestically produced urea.
Why did the price of Urea change in July in USA?
• Urea prices in North America experienced a modest decline in July 2025, extending the downward trend from the previous week, despite concurrent increases in ammonia feedstock costs.
• The price softening was driven primarily by demand-side pressures, with adverse weather conditions—notably widespread heatwaves—disrupting planting activities across key agricultural regions and delaying seasonal fertilizer application.
• On the supply front, while urea production has largely stabilized following earlier logistical challenges, the fragility of upstream ammonia availability and stress on the national power grid—particularly in industrial hubs—pose ongoing risks to production continuity.
• The heatwave’s impact on energy-intensive fertilizer manufacturing further complicated operations, although no major shutdowns were reported during the period.
• Despite these supply-side concerns, the seasonal demand lull and cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring 2026 planting season have capped upward price movement.
• In the global context, attention is now turning to India’s upcoming urea tender, which could reshape trade flows and influence North American pricing strategies in the coming months.
• While domestic demand remains sluggish, structural drivers such as government incentives for fertilizer production and steady industrial consumption (e.g., in mining and construction) are expected to support long-term market fundamentals.
APAC
• The Urea Spot Price (FOB Tanjung Priok, Indonesia) followed a volatile trajectory in Q2 2025, with a sharp rise in April, a moderate decline in May, and a significant rebound in June, culminating in a price of USD 445.00/MT by June 27, 2025—up 12.66% from the previous week and extending a robust 12-week uptrend.
• This escalation was driven by robust regional demand, particularly from rice-planting activities in Indonesia and Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, where seasonal consumption rose by 10,000 tons from May.
• A wartime premium of $50–$60/ton tightened ASEAN supply chains, while state fertilizer deliveries totaling 1.55 million tons in June continued to absorb domestic output.
• In April 2025, prices also climbed due to increased export enquiries from India, the Philippines, and Thailand, where favorable weather and planting preparations supported fertilizer demand.
• May 2025 saw a brief downturn, as the region moved beyond its peak application window. Buyer caution, reduced trading activity, and market anticipation of clearer pricing trends led to a temporary pullback.
• In June 2025, the market rebounded significantly, fueled by active rice-planting demand, tight logistics due to geopolitical tensions, and increased international buying interest.
• The Urea Production Cost Trend remained stable, supported by high plant utilization rates and consistent input costs.
• The Urea Demand Outlook remains strong in the near term, particularly in Southeast Asia, though price volatility may be moderated by ample inventory levels and planned export volumes.
Why the prices of Urea change in July 2025 in Asia?
• Urea prices in Asia continued their upward trajectory in early July 2025, driven by a blend of strong seasonal demand, logistical constraints, and shifting global trade dynamics.
• On the domestic front, ongoing rice and maize planting sustained robust fertilizer demand, with farmers actively restocking to support nutrient application throughout the season.
• Export demand also remained firm, particularly from regional markets like India—spurred by the RCF tender—and select ASEAN buyers seeking reliable supply amid tightening global availability.
• Supply-side pressures emerged from logistical challenges, including port congestion and vessel delays, which disrupted distribution flows and contributed to price inflation.
• Additionally, Indonesia’s 32% import duty on exports to the U.S. discouraged Western shipments, keeping more supply within the region and amplifying local pricing pressure.
• These combined factors—strong planting activity, freight inefficiencies, and strategic trade realignments—reinforced bullish market sentiment, suggesting that urea prices will likely remain elevated in the short term.
Europe
• The European Urea market followed a bearish trajectory during April and May 2025, marked by soft demand, steady supply, and falling feedstock (ammonia) prices, before shifting to a bullish trend in June amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed buying activity.
• Early in the quarter, prices declined amid ample inventories, stable production, and reduced ammonia costs, while dry weather and delayed nitrogen applications weakened seasonal demand.
• Supply-side challenges emerged in June, with maintenance at key facilities, power outages, and low water levels on the Rhine affecting distribution.
• A drone strike on Russian fertilizer plants, ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle East tensions added significant war-risk premiums, increasing freight costs and disrupting trade routes.
• These supply disruptions and fears of a global shortage led European buyers to accelerate purchases, shifting the market sentiment from cautious to bullish.
Why did the prices of Urea change in Europe in July 2025?
• Urea prices in Germany remained stable in July 2025, maintaining the same levels seen in recent weeks despite upward pressure from rising ammonia feedstock costs. This pricing resilience suggests that existing cost buffers and subdued market demand helped absorb the increased input costs.
• On the demand side, activity remained muted following the conclusion of the peak agricultural season. With harvesting underway, buying interest waned, as most end-users had already covered their seasonal needs.
• A significant market development was the EU’s implementation of new tariffs on fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus, effective July 1. These include a €40–€45/tonne surcharge in addition to the existing 6.5% duty on urea, marking the first phase of a multi-year policy to reduce dependence on politically sensitive regions.
• Despite the potential for longer-term supply tightening, the short-term impact has been limited, as local inventories remain sufficient and domestic production continues at stable rates.
South America
• The South American Urea market, led by Brazil, followed a two-phase trend in Q2 2025, with declining prices in April and early May, followed by a moderate to firm rebound toward the end of May and into June.
• The early-quarter decline was driven by ample inventories, subdued seasonal demand, and adverse weather delaying planting activity.
• In April 2025, Urea prices declined due to proactive stockpiling ahead of newly announced tariffs, resulting in ample inventories. Simultaneously, demand weakened as agricultural activity slowed and weather uncertainties—such as cold spells and storms—delayed planting
• Prices began to firm in mid-to-late May, supported by higher freight costs, rising geopolitical risks, and limited spot availability, especially for shipments from the U.S.
• The rebound was reinforced by the safrinha corn cycle, expectations of over 8 million tonnes of imports in 2025, and strategic inventory buildup by cooperatives and fintech-led early procurement efforts.
• The Urea Production Cost Trend remained balanced due to high natural gas utilization and stable energy inputs, but external supply risks (including Chinese export curbs and Iranian bans) tightened global availability.
Why did the prices of Urea change in South America in July 2025?
• Urea prices in Brazil continued to decline through July 2025, extending the downward momentum seen in previous weeks. The key driver behind this trend was a seasonal contraction in demand, as Brazil entered a post-harvest phase, reducing the immediate need for fertilizers—particularly urea used in NPK blends.
• With the coffee harvest largely complete and other agricultural activity slowing, domestic buyers have shifted to a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, avoiding bulk procurement amid price uncertainty and slowing consumption.
• On the supply side, Brazil remained well-stocked despite global headwinds. Importers had pre-secured volumes earlier in the year to hedge against disruptions from geopolitical tensions and Red Sea–related risks, helping prevent domestic shortages.
Middle East
• The Middle Eastern Urea market in Q2 2025 displayed a mildly bearish tone in April and June, with a modest price rebound in May, largely supported by domestic restocking amid supply concerns.
• The early-quarter price decline was driven by steady production, ample inventories, and limited spot demand as producers focused on fulfilling long-term contracts rather than engaging in speculative trades.
• In May, prices rose slightly due to domestic restocking efforts ahead of a planned seven-week maintenance shutdown at a major Ma’aden ammonia facility, prompting concerns over feedstock availability.
• Despite rising domestic sentiment, international demand remained soft, with overseas buyers showing limited spot interest amid geopolitical and logistical uncertainties.
• By June, prices trended downward again as spot activity remained weak, and producers reverted to contract-based supply strategies, while available volumes exceeded current demand, reinforcing a bearish market sentiment.
Why the prices of Urea change in July 2025 in Middle east?
• In July 2025, Urea prices in the Middle East surged sustaining an upward movement through late May and June. This price stagnancy was largely strategic, as regional traders paused further hikes to encourage fresh enquiries following earlier buyer hesitation caused by sharp increases.
• A slight rise in ammonia feedstock prices, urea pricing exerted upward pressure, further traders adopted a wait-and-see approach, anticipating the impact of India’s upcoming RCF tender for August shipments.
• Supply conditions improved, supported by the resumption of operations at Ma’aden, a key regional producer, which helped ease concerns over shortfalls and reinforced regional supply confidence.
• On the demand side, spot market activity remained limited, with buyers refraining from bulk purchases amid lingering global uncertainties. However, steady inquiries and freight bookings (including a reported 45,000-tonne shipment to Brazil) signaled underlying demand stability, especially from Latin America.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Urea prices in the USA saw a steady upward trend, driven by tight supply and strong seasonal demand. Despite volatility in Ammonia feedstock costs, prices stayed elevated due to production cuts from extreme winter weather. Force majeure declarations by key producers like OCI Beaumont LLC and CF Industries, along with freight disruptions, limited domestic availability. Agricultural demand also picked up as farmers stockpiled ahead of spring planting, especially for crops such as rice and sorghum.
However, irregular weather patterns, including drought concerns and planting delays, led to cautious buying later in the quarter. On the global front, reduced output from Europe and China, coupled with speculation over potential fertilizer tariffs, added to the market’s uncertainty.
This combination of factors—weather-related supply constraints, logistical hurdles, and shifting agricultural sentiment—shaped a price environment marked by upward pressure and cautious optimism throughout the quarter. The overall market reflected a delicate balance between demand recovery and supply limitations
APAC
The Asian Urea market exhibited price volatility during Q1 2025, with China experiencing the most notable fluctuations. In the early part of the quarter, Chinese Urea prices witnessed a modest decline, primarily due to improved supply conditions. Production gradually recovered as several domestic manufacturers resumed operations following scheduled maintenance shutdowns, leading to higher operating rates and increased Urea availability. This supply expansion, however, was met with weak demand, particularly from key downstream sectors such as fertilizers and chemicals, resulting in excess inventory and downward price pressure. Toward the end of the quarter, prices in China rebounded, driven by a rise in restocking activity from domestic consumers amid growing demand for downstream derivatives, especially UAN, ahead of the spring application season. In contrast, importing countries in Asia, such as Japan, recorded a consistent decline in Urea prices throughout the quarter. This trend was largely supported by reduced freight costs, which eased overall import expenses and contributed to sustained downward pressure on prices.
Europe
During Q1 2025, the European Urea market saw a steady rise in prices, mainly due to persistent supply constraints and seasonal demand. Production was limited as major manufacturers like SKW Piesteritz faced operational challenges, while labor strikes, port closures, and delayed cargoes further tightened availability. In January, demand remained low amid harsh winter weather and limited agricultural activity. However, by February and March, restocking began as buyers prepared for the spring planting season, supporting a recovery in consumption. International demand, especially from Latin America, added further momentum to the price rally. Geopolitical tensions and the European Commission’s proposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers heightened uncertainty, making procurement more complex. Even though port operations started to normalize by mid-March, Urea supply remained constrained, keeping prices elevated. Overall, the market was shaped by a blend of logistical disruptions, tight production, and growing seasonal demand, resulting in a bullish trend that persisted throughout the quarter across the European region.
South America
During Q1 2025, the South American Urea market exhibited notable volatility. Prices climbed steadily through January and February, largely driven by supply constraints in the United States—one of Brazil’s primary suppliers. Severe winter weather across key U.S. production regions disrupted manufacturing and logistics operations, leading to significant delays and a reduction in export volumes. This disruption coincided with robust domestic demand in Brazil, particularly from the agricultural sector, which depends heavily on Urea during the peak planting season. The combination of reduced import availability and sustained consumption led to tightened market conditions and upward price momentum. However, as the quarter progressed into March, market sentiment shifted. Seasonal demand began to taper off following the completion of primary fertilizer applications, while persistent unfavorable weather conditions in parts of Brazil further dampened agricultural activity and fertilizer use. These developments eased pressure on Urea prices, leading to stabilization and slight correction toward the end of the quarter, as both demand and import constraints began to moderate.
MEA
During Q1 2025, the Middle Easterns Urea market witnessed pronounced price fluctuations. Prices climbed steadily through January and February, supported by strong international demand for Middle Eastern Urea. Anticipated procurement activity from India, which issued a tender for over 1 million tonnes, further contributed to bullish sentiment. Supply disruptions in the United States due to extreme winter weather compounded the tightening of global supply, supporting the upward trajectory in Middle Eastern prices. However, as the quarter progressed into March, the market reversed course. A notable easing in feedstock Ammonia prices led to reduced production rates in some regions, adding downward pressure to Urea values. Domestically, the conclusion of the peak agricultural season in Saudi and UAE resulted in a natural tapering of fertilizer demand. Severe rainfall across parts of Saudi Arabia disrupted logistics and field applications, prompting buyers to defer purchases. This cautious procurement approach was reinforced by reduced demand from key export markets, where fertilizer imports slowed following the end of its planting season.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Urea market demonstrated fluctuating price trends during Q4 2024, reflecting stability in November and December after experiencing a marginal surge in October. The price remained stagnant initially, despite fluctuating feedstock costs for Ammonia, Nitric Acid and Ammonia. Subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector contributed to the lack of price movement, with agricultural activities declining as the planting season faded. However, demand for industrial applications, particularly in mining and explosives, remained steady, supporting market resilience. On the supply side, logistical challenges such as adverse weather, hurricanes, and low Mississippi River water levels constrained production and imports. Persistent bottlenecks, including a labour strike in Canada, further limited supply availability, though effective inventory management mitigated severe shortages.
However, in October, slight supply tightness coupled with a modest rise in feedstock prices led to a gradual price increase for Urea. Despite consistent industrial demand, purchasing activity for fertilizers remained cautious, with buyers delaying significant commitments in anticipation of more favourable pricing during winter fill and spring prepay periods.
Overall, Q4 showcased a balanced interplay of demand and supply, with steady industrial consumption offsetting seasonal agricultural weakness and supply chain constraints.
Asia-Pacific
Asian Urea prices exhibited pronounced volatility throughout the final quarter of 2024. Prices escalated during the initial two months, driven by robust international demand, particularly from India, which placed significant pressure on regional supply levels. In China, logistical challenges such as severe port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, coupled with heavy rainfall and rising freight costs, further exacerbated the price surge. Supply chain disruptions were intensified by vessel bunching and prolonged waiting times, compounding market tightness. Adverse weather conditions across the southern Asia-Pacific region, including typhoons in China and Japan, led to substantial production disruptions. Excessive rainfall forced several manufacturing facilities to declare force majeure, resulting in reduced production output and a notable Urea shortage in the region. Despite these challenges, prices declined toward the end of the quarter due to subdued year-end purchasing activities. India, a key fertilizer consumer, had fulfilled most of its requirements through contractual tenders, leaving minimal spot market demand. This drops in purchasing activity eased price pressures, stabilizing the market.
Europe
European Urea prices have experienced a decline due to weak demand from key sectors such as agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical disruptions. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply constraints, including the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production levels have been curtailed. However, ample inventories continue to exert downward pressure on prices. In the UK, a notable price surge occurred in December 2024, primarily driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from significant European suppliers. Despite this, buyer interest remained inconsistent, with fluctuating weather conditions playing a role in shaping demand patterns. In both Europe and the UK, demand has remained weak, with the agricultural sector showing cautious purchasing behavior. This is further exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply is outpacing demand, and economic factors like high input costs and unpredictable weather continue to influence future price trends.
South America
The South American Urea market, particularly in Brazil, has recently seen a notable price surge during Q4. This upward trend is largely attributed to a widening gap between supply and demand, driven by the El Niño phenomenon, which brought milder weather and prompted increased fertilizer purchasing activity. The agricultural sector's preparations for planting seasons have further sustained demand for Urea, essential for fertilizers and industrial applications. On the supply side, global challenges have significantly tightened Urea availability. Reduced exports from North America, particularly Canada, due to logistical disruptions, and modest contributions from the U.S., have exacerbated the constrained supply outlook. Additionally, elevated natural gas and Ammonia prices, critical Urea feedstocks, have increased production costs globally, with these expenses reflected in Brazilian import prices. Logistical issues, including shipping delays and rising freight costs, have further amplified the cost burden for Brazilian buyers. Given Brazil's heavy reliance on imports, Urea prices are expected to remain elevated unless supply conditions improve or feedstock prices stabilize.
MEA
The price of Middle Eastern Urea exhibited volatility during Q4 2024, with notable price increases observed in the first two months of the quarter. This surge was driven by volatile freight charges, reduced availability of imported material, and steady yet moderate downstream demand. Maintenance activities at Ma’aden, both planned and unplanned, significantly impacted export availability, reducing output by approximately 96,000 tons. This prompted a revision of the company’s 2024 production target to 3.0–3.2 million tons of nitrogen based fertilizers slightly down from the previous forecast. This adjustment, reflecting a 6% - 7%% supply decline, underscored the impact of these disruptions on Urea availability across domestic and export markets. Firm demand from key importing markets, particularly India, further supported the need for sustained exports. Major producers in Saudi Arabia, including Sabic Agri-Nutrients and Ma’aden, were projected to load a combined 250,000 tonnes during the quarter’s initial months. However, prices declined towards the quarter's end as subdued year-end purchasing activities eased market pressure. India, having secured most of its fertilizer needs via contractual tenders, contributed to the reduced spot demand, stabilizing prices.
