For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Stainless Steel HR Coil market remained stable, with prices showing a marginal decline of 2% from the previous quarter. Various factors influenced market prices, including stable supply conditions, moderate demand levels, and global economic uncertainties. The correlation between nickel and iron markets played a significant role in price fluctuations, with challenges such as elevated inventory levels and sluggish demand impacting pricing dynamics.
The automotive sector experienced a decline in sales, while the construction industry displayed resilience, indicating diverse demand trends across sectors. Plant shutdowns were not reported during the quarter, contributing to supply stability. In the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market exhibited a similar stable trend.
Price comparisons between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant variation. Despite facing challenges such as reduced new orders and cautious selling price increments, the overall pricing environment remained steady. The quarter ended with the latest price of USD 3220/MT for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Albama Port, reflecting the prevailing stable sentiment in the US market.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a challenging period for Stainless Steel HR Coil pricing, marked by a notable decline. Several factors influenced market prices, including oversupply, weak demand, and global economic uncertainties. The market faced pressures from increased production capacities, particularly in China, leading to a surplus of stainless-steel products.
Demand remained subdued due to sluggish economic growth and uncertainties in key industries like construction and automotive. Additionally, external factors such as the ongoing global economic slowdown and trade tensions contributed to the negative pricing environment. Within China, the most significant price changes were observed, reflecting the overall trend in the region.
Prices experienced a consistent downward trajectory throughout the quarter, with a notable 1% decrease from the previous quarter. The second half of the quarter recorded a sharper decline of 3%, indicating a worsening pricing environment. As the quarter concluded, the price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) Ex Shandong in China stood at USD 1046/MT, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Stainless-Steel HR Coil market in Europe experienced a period of declining prices, with significant factors influencing this trend. The market was predominantly affected by weakened demand across various industries, particularly in construction and automotive sectors, leading to an oversupply situation.
The downturn in industrial activity has contributed to sharp declines in demand for SSHRC, as reflected in reduced output and new orders. Political uncertainty further exacerbates this fragile demand environment, making manufacturers cautious in their strategies. Although there is a slight improvement in business confidence linked to potential opportunities from upcoming elections, demand remains subdued. Manufacturers are focusing on stabilizing operations amid these challenges, adjusting inventory levels and purchasing activities to adapt to the changing market conditions.
High manufacturing cost inflation and fluctuating raw material prices added pressure on suppliers, impacting pricing strategies. The cautious supply dynamics, coupled with reduced delivery times, highlighted challenges in maintaining cost competitiveness. Plant shutdowns further disrupted the supply chain during this period. Germany, witnessing the most significant price changes, reflected the overall trend in the region, showcasing a 10% increase from the previous quarter. The second half of the quarter saw a notable 2% price decline compared to the first half. The quarter ended with Stainless Steel-HR Coil priced at USD 3206/MT Ex Ruhr in Germany, emphasizing the negative sentiment prevailing in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 showcased a relatively stable pricing environment for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil in the North American region, marked by minimal fluctuations. Several factors contributed to this stability. Raw material costs, particularly nickel and chromium, remained steady, providing a predictable cost structure for manufacturers. Supply chains also exhibited resilience, with no significant disruptions or plant shutdowns reported, ensuring consistent production levels. Additionally, the balanced interplay between supply and demand aided in maintaining price stability.
In the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the market dynamics reflected stable sentiment. The automotive and construction sectors continued to drive robust demand for value-added stainless steel products, offsetting any potential downturns from other manufacturing sectors. This sustained demand, coupled with a cautious yet steady supply from mills, prevented any drastic price escalations or drops.
Seasonal trends did not significantly impact pricing, and the correlation of price changes with broader economic indicators suggested a stable outlook. The overall trend displayed a negligible percentage change from the first to the second half of the quarter, underscoring market equilibrium. Compared to the previous quarter, there was a notable 8% increase, highlighting a gradual yet steady growth trajectory.
Concluding the quarter, the price for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Alabama Port stood at USD 3269/MT, reflecting a stable and positive pricing environment. This consistency underscores the market's resilience and balanced supply-demand dynamics throughout Q2 2024.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a pronounced increase in the price of Stainless Steel HR Coil across Europe, driven by several key factors. Market dynamics were heavily influenced by rising inflation, regulatory changes, and fluctuating energy costs. The implementation of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) played a pivotal role by mandating benchmarks for domestic production, processing, and recycling capacities, thereby reducing reliance on non-EU sources. Additionally, the European Central Bank's interest rate cut to 3.75% aimed to stimulate economic confidence, although rising alloy surcharges, particularly for nickel and molybdenum, significantly impacted stainless steel pricing.
In Germany, the pricing environment was particularly dynamic, with the country experiencing the most substantial price changes within the region. The quarter exhibited a steady upward trend in prices, influenced by increased freight charges and robust demand, especially from the automotive sector, which saw a notable recovery evidenced by a surge in new car registrations. The relationship between seasonal demand patterns and price changes was notable, with prices in the second quarter rising by 22% compared to the first quarter.
The quarter also faced disruptions, including plant shutdowns at Thyssenkrupp's Duisburg site, which further constricted supply and drove prices up. The overall market sentiment remained positive, reflecting confidence in a continuing bullish trend. Concluding Q2 2024, the price of Stainless Steel-HR Coil (5 mm) Ex Ruhr in Germany reached USD 3207/MT, underscoring a robust and resilient pricing environment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable uptick in Stainless Steel HR Coil prices, driven primarily by robust market dynamics and external pressures. The quarter saw significant factors such as rising production costs, constrained supply chains, and increased raw material prices, particularly nickel and iron ore. These elements collectively pushed prices upward, with market sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic despite some operational disruptions.
China, the linchpin of the APAC stainless steel market, exhibited the most substantial price changes. The country grappled with high nickel ore costs and tight nickel pig iron (NPI) supply, exacerbating production expenses. Despite weak downstream demand, Chinese mills maintained high production rates to safeguard market share, leading to a stable yet pressured pricing environment. Seasonal slowdowns and weaker manufacturing activity further influenced market dynamics, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reflecting contraction.
Although the market in the second quarter showed resilience, prices in this quarter fell by 3%, highlighting the market's vulnerability. The quarter-end price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) in China was USD 1089/MT, marking a decrease as compared to the previous quarter. Despite these fluctuations, the overall pricing environment remained stable with an upward trajectory, showcasing the market's adaptability and resilience in the face of persistent challenges.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American market for Stainless Steel HR Coil in Q1 2024 experienced a stable pricing environment with moderate supply and demand dynamics. The region saw a minor downturn in prices compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to decreased demand from downstream industries and a decline in nickel prices. Despite expectations of production growth from domestic mills, weak demand from international markets weighed on Stainless Steel HR Coil prices. The US market showed more resilience compared to Europe amid economic challenges.
In the US spot market, there was a slight increase in the availability of Stainless-Steel HR Coils, coupled with a decrease in downstream demand. This high supplies of Nickel, a crucial raw material, contributed to the slight decline in prices. However, Canada Nickel's strategic initiatives to establish nickel and stainless-steel processing facilities aimed to strengthen the North American electric vehicle supply chain with sustainable technologies.
Overall, the pricing environment for Stainless Steel HR Coil in the North American market during Q1 2024 was negative, with prices experiencing a minor decline. The US market was more resilient compared to Europe, but weak demand from downstream industries and international markets weighed on prices. The stable supply and moderate demand dynamics contributed to the overall stability in the market. The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Alabama Port in the USA was USD 3049/MT.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Stainless-Steel HR Coil market in the APAC region experienced a mixed pricing environment. Overall, market prices remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations observed in China. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. One significant factor was the decreased demand from downstream industries, particularly the automotive sector. Sluggish economic recovery and geopolitical instability in developed nations like Europe and the United States led to a shift in consumer spending preferences from goods to services, resulting in decreased imports and alterations in trade dynamics. This reduced demand for Stainless Steel HR Coil, leading to cautious behaviour among buyers in the Chinese spot market. Another factor impacting prices was the rise in domestic inventory levels. Reduced consumption both domestically and internationally in China, coupled with a surge in the influx of Stainless-Steel products during the Chinese New Year holiday, led to a notable increase in inventory levels. This increase in supply contributed to the bearish market sentiment. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Stainless Steel HR Coil in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be described as negative to stable. While there were fluctuations in prices, overall market conditions remained challenging due to reduced demand and increased supply. The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) Ex Shandong in China was USD 1070/MT.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Stainless-Steel HR Coil market in Europe experienced a mixed pricing environment, with Germany being the most affected. The overall trend for Stainless Steel HR Coil prices slight increases, with some fluctuations influenced by various factors. One of the factors that influenced market prices was the supply disruption in Europe. Operational issues and prolonged industrial disputes at key manufacturing plants, such as Acerinox's Los Barrios and Outokumpu's Tornio sites, led to reduced production rates across European mills. This tightened supply constraints and strained inventory levels and extended lead times, resulting in price increases. In Germany specifically, Infrastructure projects and construction activities drove the demand for Stainless Steel HR Coils. However, the increased demand exacerbated supply-demand imbalances, intensifying competition for available supply, and putting pressure on prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Stainless Steel HR Coils in Europe (Germany) increases. The market faced challenges in supply disruptions and increased demand, leading to supply-demand imbalances. Looking ahead, addressing supply chain disruptions, and boosting production capabilities will be crucial to stabilize the market and ensure its resilience. The latest quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-HR Coil (5 mm) Ex Ruhr in Germany was USD 2477/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American market for Stainless Steel HR Coil experienced a stable trend amidst several macroeconomic factors resulting in uncertain sentiments in the US spot market. In October 2023, US stainless-steel HR Coil prices were elevated due to increased demand from the chemical and automotive sectors, compounded by limited upstream material supplies. Factors such as rising US bond yields, a robust ISM industrial index, and failed negotiations between the EU and the US in a steel dispute influenced the market.
However, in November, prices declined as production rates rose, and downstream consumption decreased. Outokumpu's expansion plans increased supply, and surpluses in feedstock persisted. In December, US spot market prices declined due to increased inventory levels and reduced demand from downstream sectors during the winter holidays. Despite challenges, the global Nickel mining industry grew, with the Minnesota Copper-Nickel Mining project playing a significant role.
US Stainless Steel HR Coil industries redirected investments from Brazil to China to enhance international competitiveness. Winter weather and uncertainty about government policies, interest rates, and the electric vehicle sector contributed to subdued demand in the US spot market. The price of Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Alabama Port in the USA for this quarter is USD 3046/MT. Please note that no plant shutdown was observed during this quarter.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region's Stainless Steel HR Coil market experienced a plunging trend throughout the last quarter of 2023, amidst various factors influencing prices. Firstly, In October, the Chinese spot market experienced a decline in Stainless-Steel HR Coil prices, influenced by a shift in international demand towards the southern direction. Anti-dumping duties in the US and European markets, uncertainty about steel scrap and Nickel availability in Chinese warehouses, and a scarcity of steel scrap led to decreased prices. The US imposed duties contributed to a decreasing price trend, and a generally pessimistic sentiment reduced Stainless-Steel HR Coil prices across Chinese provinces. Later in the quarter, a decline in prices was attributed to increased Nickel supply, reduced consumption, and the cost-effectiveness of using recycled materials in manufacturing Stainless Steel HR Coils. In December 2023, the Chinese spot market demonstrated price stability despite decreased demand globally. Adverse weather conditions and increased global Nickel supply impacted Stainless Steel HR Coil prices. The IPO of Tsingshan Holding Group's battery subsidiary and concerns among Chinese miners in Indonesia further influenced Nickel prices. Disruptions on the Red Sea route and lowered demand during holidays affected US and European orders in the fourth quarter. The latest price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) Ex Shandong in China for the last quarter is USD 1109/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the European stainless steel HR coil market experienced stability in the price trend. In October 2023, the German spot market experienced an uptick in prices for Stainless Steel HR Coil, attributed to increased demand from the automotive and chemical sectors. This rise in demand, coupled with a decrease in raw material supply, became apparent as production rates declined. Consequently, global and domestic inventory levels for steel scrap and Nickel pig iron saw a reduction. The EU Carbon Border Tax, launched on October 1, faced initial challenges, leading EU steelmakers to advocate for strengthening the export ban on EU ferrous scrap. Concerns about the future availability of ferrous scrap were raised by EUROFER. Efforts to promote large-scale green Direct Reduced Iron production were halted, while consumer stocks in the UK remained resilient. Despite a recent market slowdown, UK companies in consumer-related sectors, such as retailers, construction firms, and travel and leisure, demonstrated resilience. Claims of circumvention against stainless steel products from Turkey, Taiwan, and Vietnam were deemed weak, signaling concerns about self-interest among EU steel producers amid uncertainties surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in the German spot market. The latest price of stainless-steel HR coil (5 mm) ex Ruhr in Germany for the last quarter is USD 2359/MT.
