For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, North America's rapeseed oil market faced a complex set of challenges shaped by global and regional dynamics. While the European market saw a notable price surge, North America experienced a more moderate trend. Supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs, and logistical delays impacted the market, but stable domestic production helped mitigate the effects.
Early in the quarter, rapeseed oil prices rose sharply due to heightened demand from end-user sectors and global supply chain issues, which increased shipping costs and extended lead times. Suppliers, benefiting from moderate inventories, raised prices to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities. Currency fluctuations, particularly the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, further fueled this upward trend through August.
However, by September, a significant price drop occurred, marking an overall downward trend for the quarter. Weakened global demand for U.S. rapeseed oil, combined with increased competition from alternative oils like soybean and palm oil, contributed to the decline. Economic uncertainties and inflation in key importing regions further dampened demand, with buyers opting for more competitively priced alternatives. By the end of the quarter, North American rapeseed oil prices stabilized at around USD 1,187 per metric ton, reflecting a modest decline from the previous quarter.
Asia Pacific
Moving forward toward the third quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed a notable surge in Rapeseed Oil prices, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. The market dynamics were primarily influenced by supply constraints, heightened demand from key industries, and increased import costs due to currency devaluation. The tight supply conditions, coupled with robust demand, led to aggressive inventory building by stockists, further exacerbating price pressures. Additionally, factors such as rising energy costs impacting production, delays in processing, and escalating freight expenses contributed to the overall price escalations. However, the agricultural sector's inability to immediately match the sudden spike in demand created a short-term supply crunch. As a result, the impact of these market dynamics ultimately trickled down to consumers. Manufacturers, faced with higher procurement costs and limited import options, were forced to pass on these expenses to end-users. As a result, retail prices for Rapeseed oil saw a significant increase. This price rise was a clear manifestation of the supply-demand imbalance that favored domestic production, a direct consequence of the government's policy decision to hike import duties on edible oils. Overall, the quarter recorded a substantial 13% increase from the previous quarter. Ending the quarter on a high note, the latest price stood at USD 1634.69/MT of Rapeseed Oil Ex Jaipur in India, reflecting a continuously positive pricing trend throughout the period.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European rapeseed oil market experienced a notable downturn due to several interconnected factors. Initially, July saw a surge in prices, particularly in Germany, driven by heightened purchasing activity and increased export demand. However, weather disruptions in key producing regions such as France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine negatively affected winter rapeseed crops, reducing yields and market availability, which contributed to the price rise. As August commenced, the market shifted towards a significant downward trend, which persisted until the latter weeks of September. This decline was driven by weakened demand from end-users, who adopted a more cautious approach to procurement amid ongoing market uncertainties. Despite adequate global supply levels, trading activity diminished, and preferences among manufacturers and suppliers began to shift towards alternative edible oils, further exerting downward pressure on rapeseed oil prices. By the end of the quarter, prices had dropped significantly, closing at USD 1,030 per metric ton (FOB Hamburg). This trend highlighted the complex interplay of economic dynamics, currency fluctuations, and agricultural conditions, creating challenges for the rapeseed oil supply chain. The overall sentiment in Germany reflected a bearish pricing environment, with continuous price declines throughout the quarter. This period underscored the need for adaptive strategies to navigate the volatile market landscape.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the U.S., the Rapeseed oil market is poised for significant shifts, mirroring trends observed in the European, particularly the German market. The second quarter of 2024 reveals a dynamic landscape characterized by pronounced price volatility and distinct market behaviors. April 2024 began with robust momentum, marked by rising prices due to insufficient inventory and heightened regional demand. Suppliers grappled with product availability issues, though reduced freight costs provided some relief, enabling higher import quotes despite the persistent appreciation of the dollar against other currencies.
While May 2024 experienced a substantial price decline, attributed to waning international demand and heightened competition from alternative edible oils. Economic uncertainties and evolving consumer preferences posed challenges, leading to low to moderate downstream consumption in end-users such as food, and other industrial sectors. Consequently, procurement activities diminished, resulting in a general higher stocking up of inventory levels among merchants.
However, as June 2024 commenced, it marked a resurgence in the market, concluding the quarter on a high note. Rapeseed oil prices saw a steady rise, driven by increased global demand from end-users and limited availability from key producing nations. Seasonal factors, adverse weather conditions, and geopolitical uncertainties exacerbated supply constraints, leading to price volatility. The robust demand from the food and biodiesel industries further pushed prices higher. Market dynamics throughout the quarter were shaped by decreased rapeseed production in the Philippines, ongoing production and supply delays, and strategic adjustments by market participants to mitigate risk and sustain stability. As a result, the quarter culminated with traders actively offloading stocked inventories at higher costs, reflecting a generally positive market sentiment despite the mid-quarter dip.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant upward trajectory in Rapeseed Oil prices across the APAC region, driven by a confluence of critical factors, including adverse weather conditions and tightening supply chains. Production challenges were notable, with unseasonal rainfall and heatwaves severely disrupting crop yields and reducing output. Concurrently, heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly the biodiesel and food industries, sustained the upward pressure on prices. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in international trade further constrained the availability of rapeseed oil, leading to significant supply bottlenecks. This trend was particularly acute in India, which experienced the most pronounced price changes. The Indian rapeseed oil market saw substantial price increases during Q2, driven by increased domestic consumption and reduced output. Seasonal factors played a significant role, with summer heat intensifying stress on rapeseed crops and impacting yields. Overall, the prices in Q2 2024 surged by 9% from the previous quarter, reflecting an accelerated demand against a backdrop of constrained supply. The latest quarter-ending price for Rapeseed Oil in India stands at USD 1415.47/MT. The pricing environment throughout this quarter has been distinctly positive from a market perspective, driven by sustained demand and constrained supply dynamics, without any reported plant shutdowns affecting market stability.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, rapeseed oil prices in Europe experienced a distinct upward trajectory, driven by several notable factors. Focusing on Germany, the nation witnessed the most pronounced price changes within the region. Seasonal factors, including the onset of harvesting and intermittent disruptions in planting activities due to unfavorable weather, contributed to significant price volatility. The overall sentiment in Germany was one of sustained increase, reflecting an optimistic pricing environment. A price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial 5% rise, underscoring the persistent upward momentum. Overall, the quarter was marked by tightening supply dynamics, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions in key production regions, which led to lower-than-expected yields and subsequent price increases. This supply constraint was further amplified by geopolitical uncertainties, which complicated trade logistics and heightened freight charges. Supporting to this further, the robust demand from both the food and biodiesel industries also played a significant role in pushing prices higher, as end-users increasingly sought rapeseed oil to meet their production needs. Additionally, the continuous appreciation of other vegetable oils provided ancillary support, creating a ripple effect across the market. As a result, compared to the previous quarter, prices climbed by an additional 1%, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1038/MT FOB Hamburg. Overall, the pricing environment for rapeseed oil in Germany during Q2 2024 was decidedly positive, driven by a confluence of supply-side constraints, heightened demand, and external market influences.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Rapeseed Oil pricing in the North American region mirrored the market trajectory of European regions, showing an overall pessimistic outlook but a steady rise towards the end of the period. In January, the notable drop in Rapeseed Oil prices resulted from reduced downstream demand and higher inventories held by market participants. Responding to oversupply, downstream processing enterprises adjusted procurement strategies, further lowering prices, aided by the consistent appreciation of the dollar against major producing nations' currencies.
However, traders continued to exhibit reluctance amid weakened purchasing observed in end-user biofuel and food industries. Moving into February, significant price declines were influenced by exporting nations' provinces, particularly Germany, reducing prices, enabling US market players to adjust strategies to remain competitive. Additionally, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 120.9 points in February, down 1.6 points (1.3 percent) from January and standing 15.0 points (11.0 percent) below its year-ago level. The decline mainly reflected lower world prices of soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oils, more than offsetting marginally higher palm oil quotations.
Global sunflower and rapeseed oil prices decreased, reflecting ample global export availabilities. As March 2024 began, the market witnessed a steady rise in downstream consumption of rapeseed oil, supported by improved demand from end-user sectors. Overall, the market sentiment in North America regarding rapeseed oil remained negative, with a steady rise towards the end of the quarter supporting a balanced supply-demand outlook.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2024, Rapeseed Oil prices in the APAC region showed a predominantly positive trend, starting with a steady decline attributed to a robust harvest in the previous season. Initially, favorable weather conditions likely boosted yields, reducing import dependence and shaping a pessimistic market outlook. Local market participants strategically utilized destocking tactics to protect their inventories and prepare for new supplies. Despite the continued depreciation of the INR against the dollar, buying sentiments in the market remained subdued, leading to reluctance among traders to procure goods as inquiries from oil mills stayed low. However, in February 2024, there was a slight uptick in downstream rapeseed oil consumption, initially supported by sufficient inventories provided by traders. Additionally, the HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 56.9 from January's 56.5, surpassing a preliminary estimate of 56.7. This indicates strong production growth, supported by both domestic and external demand from various sectors, including downstream agriculture and food industries. In the meantime, driven by buoyant demand, the output and new orders sub-indexes rose to five-month highs. Additionally, with a significant rise in biodiesel consumption, the off-takes for its feedstock, particularly vegetable oil, surged.
The limited availability of palm oil in the region, coupled with reduced production in major producing countries, kept demand for alternative oils high. This led to higher prices for rapeseed oil due to its similar use in biofuel industries. This trend persisted until late March, with market participants managing their inventories strategically, trading at higher costs to maximize profits. The devaluation of the INR against the dollar further increased imported costs for traders and buyers across the region. As a result, the quarter-ending price for Rapeseed Oil in India stood at USD 1247/MT Ex Jaipur, depicting an overall positive trajectory.
Europe
The European Rapeseed Oil market faced significant challenges during the first quarter of 2024, witnessing a notable decline in prices. Several factors contributed to this downward trend, including global market conditions such as decreasing prices of alternative edible oils like soybean oil. The intricate relationship between soybean oil and rapeseed oil, acting as substitutes in various applications from culinary to biofuel production, played a significant role in shaping market dynamics. Abundant inventories of soybean oil, coupled with a noticeable price reduction compared to rapeseed oil, attracted discerning buyers towards the former, exerting downward pressure on rapeseed oil prices. Additionally, weakened demand in the biodiesel sector further dampened the market's performance. Market analysts and experts grappled with a higher global oversupply of rapeseed oil, affecting supply-demand dynamics. The depreciation of the euro against the dollar made trading rapeseed oil relatively expensive in the regional market, leading market players in neighboring nations to resist placing new quotations from Germany. Meanwhile, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 120.9 points in February, down 1.6 points (1.3 percent) from January and standing 15.0 points (11.0 percent) below its year-ago level. This decline primarily reflected lower world prices of soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oils, with global sunflower and rapeseed oil prices decreasing due to ample export availabilities. However, as March concludes, German rapeseed oil exports surged due to a modest regional consumption rebound, maintaining steady inventory levels among market participants and meeting overall demand. However, to support this rebound in demand, buyers and downstream purchasers adjusted quotations, facilitated by favorable freight costs. Nonetheless, this was counteracted by currency factors, with importing regions accepting the product at higher euro rates, benefiting suppliers and allowing them to regain previous profits. Overall, in Q1 2024, Rapeseed Oil prices in Germany saw a negative trend, declining consistently due to global market factors and weakened demand, with a steady rise at the end of the quarter settling at USD 1244/MT FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America:
During the entire Q4 2023 across North America, Rapeseed oil prices underwent a dynamic trajectory following the market trend of the European region. Initially, starting from October 2023, prices exhibited a decline because of weakened purchasing activity with ample availability within the domestic market. Despite being a cost-effective option drop in other edible oil prices such as Sunflower oil resulted in further competition, keeping the prices on the south side. This trend persisted until the final weeks of December, with prices experiencing a moderate rebound in the middle of the fourth quarter. This rebound was supported by a sudden rise in regional offtakes, balanced with sufficient stocks among merchants coupled with higher costs of fuel and port disruptions.
Congestion at major ports led to delays and substantial increases in transportation costs, rendering the export of Rapeseed oil more expensive. This, combined with other factors, contributed to a spike in prices for consumers. The uncertain global economic situation and concerns about future supply shortages fueled speculation and heightened price volatility in the Rapeseed oil market, further contributing to the overall price surge.
However, navigating the dynamic market dynamics of Rapeseed Oil's downstream end-products, which exhibited a blend of organization and fluctuation, the supply of downstream products proved to be ample. This accommodated the overarching influx of inquiries and resulted in a noticeable decline in transaction volume within the market as December ended.
Asia Pacific:
Throughout Q4 2023 in the APAC region, a multitude of factors played a crucial role in shaping the Rapeseed Oil market and influencing price dynamics. In October 2023, Rapeseed Oil prices experienced an upward trend in the Indian market, driven by heightened demand during the festival season, which typically runs from September to November. This surge in demand, common during festivals, contributed to increased downstream purchasing activity from retailers and suppliers to manufacturers. Various factors, such as inflation and disruptions in the supply chain, have led to escalated production costs, encompassing higher expenditures on labor, energy, and seeds. High energy prices have further contributed to the rising cost of rapeseed. Manufacturers continued to face challenges in meeting the surging demand, resulting in potential shortages and price hikes in the Indian market until the final weeks of November 2023. However, as the fourth quarter approached its conclusion, prices experienced a considerable decline due to decreased downstream demand for terminal oil, reinforcing a pessimistic outlook for the Rapeseed oil market characterized by substantial fluctuations. This decline can be attributed to the increased availability of rapeseed seed for processing into Rapeseed Oil, driven by higher yields of Heavy rapeseed/canola globally in recent seasons. This surge in supplies has led to augmented exportable surpluses of rapeseed/canola oil in the regional market. Furthermore, the reduced prices of Rapeseed Oil have enhanced its competitiveness against other vegetable oils like Palm, Soybean, and Sunflower, resulting in an expansion of its market share and a subsequent decline in prices. The affordability of Rapeseed oil has positioned it as a preferred choice for cost-conscious consumers, particularly in a market sensitive to fluctuations in edible oil prices.
Europe:
Rapeseed Oil pricing in the European region displayed volatility throughout Q4 2023, influenced by several factors. Initially, Germany witnessed a significant price drop, mainly due to decreased regional consumption. The hesitation of domestic consumers to pay higher prices was fueled by the euro's appreciation against the USD. Economic factors and increased availability of alternative edible oils affected Rapeseed oil demand from key importers. In contrast, November 2023 saw a substantial increase in Rapeseed oil prices, marked by a complex situation involving input cost inflation slowing, stabilization in exchange rates, easing output cost inflation, and optimistic sentiment amid rising new orders. This analysis explores the fundamental reasons and potential consequences of this market shift. To counter this sudden rise and prevent the further shortage industry stakeholders collaboratively took steps to reduce surplus inventories and align production with current market requirements by clearing stocks at a high rate. However, By December 2023, Rapeseed Oil prices in Europe experienced a significant downward trajectory, aligning with global market dynamics, including other edible oil markets. The prevailing anticipation was anchored in the expectation of an increased influx of inquiries from the downstream sector, prompting proactive stockpiling in previous months. However, as December approached, the market took an unexpected turn, requiring merchants to recalibrate their inventory levels in response to the evolving landscape.
