For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American market for propylene carbonate faced a significant downturn, marked by a sharp decline in prices compared to the same period the previous year. Several factors fueled this price drop, including weak demand, elevated inventory levels, and slow procurement activity. Additionally, increased imports and minimal cost support from upstream sectors further exacerbated the downward pressure, reinforcing the overall bearish market sentiment.
In the U.S., where the most significant price fluctuations were observed, the trend aligned with the broader North American market. Prices began to drop early in the quarter, driven by persistent challenges, and this decline continued into the second half of the quarter, reflecting sustained downward momentum.
By the close of Q3 2024, propylene carbonate prices had settled at lower levels, underscoring the challenging market conditions, which were shaped by oversupply and weak demand. The overall pricing trend for propylene carbonate across North America during this period remained negative, impacted by an excess of supply, sluggish demand, and challenging conditions in both upstream and downstream sectors.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the market for Propylene Carbonate in the APAC region experienced a downward trend in prices. This decrease can be attributed to several key factors influencing market dynamics. Firstly, the oversupply of Propylene Carbonate in the region led to reduced demand and subsequently lower prices. Additionally, weakened demand from downstream industries, particularly the battery manufacturing sector, contributed to the downward pressure on prices. The impact of falling crude oil prices on the upstream propylene oxide market also played a role in driving prices down. China, being a significant player in the Propylene Carbonate market, witnessed the most significant price changes during the quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices in Q3 2024 saw a decrease of 4%, indicating a notable shift in market conditions. Furthermore, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at -1%, highlighting the continued decline in prices. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 3% decrease in prices, emphasizing the sustained downward trend. Ultimately, the quarter-ending price of Propylene Carbonate FOB Qingdao in China settled at USD 880/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment characterized by decreasing prices and challenging market conditions.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European market for propylene carbonate faced a persistent decline in prices, driven by multiple adverse factors. Oversupply concerns, alongside weak demand from both Asian and North American markets, were central to the downward pressure on pricing. The lack of significant cost support from upstream industries further intensified the price drop throughout the quarter. However, the market remained uncertain at times due mounting tensions in the Middle East. The market remained challenging, with high inventory levels and sluggish demand amplifying the downward trend in prices. European manufacturers also contended with rising production costs, subdued demand from downstream sectors, and worsening economic conditions, all of which contributed to the difficulties faced by the propylene carbonate market. Belgium and Germany saw the most noticeable fluctuations in prices during the quarter. The substantial year-on-year decrease underscores the challenging market landscape, while quarter-on-quarter price variations and differences between the first and second halves of the quarter reflect the ongoing decline in propylene carbonate prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American Propylene Carbonate market showed mixed trends. Early in the quarter, prices fell due to oversupply and weak consumer procurement, leading to price declines. Demand for Propylene Carbonate remained steady at moderate levels, with ample product availability in the local market. Industry experts note that many consumers are reluctant to purchase large quantities of Propylene Carbonate at higher prices from downstream and terminal markets. Despite strong sales in March, many automakers faced subdued performance in April, with only electric vehicle sales showing notable growth.
U.S. consumer interest in electric vehicles has declined, with surveys indicating that only a small segment of the population is interested in EVs. However, hybrid vehicles continue to garner strong interest due to their electrification benefits without significant lifestyle changes. Additionally, Tesla is nearing the loss of its position as the top EV seller in the U.S., as other manufacturers sold approximately 597,000 fully electric vehicles over the past year compared to Tesla's 618,000. This highlights increasing competition and potential market saturation concerns for EVs.
On the supply side of Propylene Carbonate, freight charges along major sea trade routes have risen, making shipments to the U.S. more costly. Unexpected increases in ocean freight demand from Asia, driven by restocking cycles in Europe and North American importers advancing peak season demand, have put additional strain on the already stretched container market. However, reduced conflict risk premiums, especially in the Middle East, have eased concerns about supply disruptions, leading to further reductions in international freight charges.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Propylene Carbonate market in the APAC region experienced a period of price stability, largely attributable to balanced supply and demand fundamentals. The stable pricing environment was sustained by consistent demand from the downstream chemical and pharmaceutical industries, coupled with moderate procurement activities from the lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector. Additionally, steady international crude oil prices have provided a predictable cost baseline for the production of Propylene Carbonate, ensuring minimal fluctuations. Focusing on China, the country has experienced the most significant price movements within the APAC region. Overall trends in China's market have displayed a stable sentiment, characterized by consistent supply and moderate demand. Despite seasonal variations typically impacting market dynamics, such as increased activity during peak manufacturing seasons, the second quarter has seen a notable equilibrium. The correlation in price changes has been steady, with a slight 2% increase from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a positive yet stable market environment. A comparative analysis of the first and second half of Q2 2024 shows no significant price difference. This stability underscores a well-balanced market with efficient supply chain management and predictable demand cycles. Conclusively, the pricing environment has remained stable overall, with the latest quarter-ending price affirming this sentiment. The market’s resilience and balanced dynamics suggest a continued stable outlook for Propylene Carbonate pricing in the region.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Propylene Carbonate market in Europe faced several constraints that significantly impacted prices. Despite experiencing instability due to weak consumer demand, prices remained relatively stable. Demand from the downstream lithium-ion battery sector was moderate. In major exporting nations, sellers consistently reduced prices in response to an oversupply situation, as producers increased production levels in anticipation of higher import volumes in April compared to March. This indicated a trend of supply recovery for the Propylene Carbonate market. In Europe, Propylene Carbonate prices dropped in mid-Q2 due to weak demand fundamentals, despite support from steady upstream raw material prices. Finished product inventory levels helped maintain market balance, although spot transactions remained stable. Data showed a decline in domestic sales, even though consumption in downstream markets stayed consistent. The slowdown in electric two-wheeler growth was linked to reduced subsidies and challenges faced by some OEMs, along with delays in subsidy disbursements impacting affordability and market expansion. Additionally, increased freight charges across major sea trade routes have made shipments more expensive, adding strain to the container market due to unseasonal demand and potential restocking cycles. Overall, the Propylene Carbonate market remains calm, with limited activity observed in the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American propylene carbonate market continued to confront challenges. The supply of propylene carbonate in the region remained high, while consumption remained sluggish and procurement levels remained heavy from previous periods. The domestic automotive industry's demand for propylene carbonate stayed low, reflecting the cautious approach of market participants. Major manufacturers focused on fulfilling long-term orders, leading to lower domestic inventories due to slow replenishments.
Moreover, international trade encountered hurdles during this period, driven by conflict in the Middle East and drought in the Panama Canal. These factors resulted in delayed container shipments and increased freight costs. The growing competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers further impacted the profitability of US-based EV companies, exacerbating market challenges. Additionally, high interest rates raised the cost of financing, which slowed down the adoption of electric vehicles globally.
Despite persistent inflation in other consumer goods, the purchase of optional electric vehicles remained slower than anticipated. These factors contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the North American propylene carbonate market. Nevertheless, procurement from battery manufacturing firms remained underwhelming due to lackluster demand. In contrast, the electric vehicle market demonstrated steady sales throughout Q4, with major players reporting increased month-on-month sales. Additionally, the global electric vehicle battery market remained subdued in Q4 amid tepid demand.
APAC
Propylene Carbonate prices in the APAC region experienced a downward trend in Q1 2024. The market was influenced by several factors, leading to decreasing prices. Overall, the demand for Propylene Carbonate was weak, particularly in downstream industries such as electrolytes and solvent manufacturing. The abundant availability of material in the region resulted in reduced procurement and destocking practices. Additionally, the sluggish global economy and low consumer confidence impacted the demand for Propylene Carbonate.
In China, the largest market for Propylene Carbonate, prices decreased by 16% compared to the same quarter last year. The market was characterized by stable supply and weak demand, resulting in subdued market sentiments. The Lunar New Year holidays also contributed to reduced manufacturing activities and limited new orders. Within Q1 2024, China experienced a 5% decrease in prices compared to the previous quarter.
However, there was a slight price increase of 2% in the second half of the quarter compared to the first half. This can be attributed to improved supply and demand dynamics, with factories focusing on arranging orders and shipments. The quarter-ending price for Propylene Carbonate FOB Qingdao in China was USD 910/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Propylene Carbonate market in Europe encountered various challenges that significantly affected prices. These difficulties resembled those of the previous quarter, with oversupply playing a pivotal role in reducing demand and subsequently lowering prices. The continued sluggish demand from the downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector persisted, as consumers remained cautious amid declining prices.
Additionally, the dominance of the Chinese market in Europe contributed to the overall bearish sentiment. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, like BYD, witnessed substantial sales growth, surpassing Tesla as the leading global electric carmaker, further intensifying competition and impacting the profitability of European-based EV companies. However, Belgium stood out as an exception, experiencing a significant surge in sales of battery electric cars.
Moreover, global trade faced hurdles during this period due to conflict in the Middle East and drought in the Panama Canal, resulting in delayed container shipments and higher freight charges. Despite these challenges, fierce pricing competition among European, US, and Chinese EV manufacturers persisted. Throughout this period, the market experienced multiple shutdowns, leading to disruptions that directly influenced prices. Despite these obstacles, there were some slight developments in market transactions for Propylene Carbonate in Belgium during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the final quarter of 2023, the North American propylene carbonate market displayed a varied trend with prices fluctuating throughout the quarter. Over three months, the demand outlook remained moderate as consumers hesitated on new purchases and primarily focused on long-term orders. In the initial month, demand remained unstable due to ample material availability observed in the domestic market.
As November unfolded, increased consumer spending and enhanced market activities positively impacted the overall economic landscape. However, downstream industries experienced only modest demand. Despite concerns about a potential recession, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties, consumer confidence in the US grew in both November and December, indicating an optimistic view of future business conditions.
Nevertheless, procurement from battery manufacturing firms remained underwhelming due to lackluster demand. In contrast, the electric vehicle market demonstrated steady sales throughout Q4, with major players reporting increased month-on-month sales. Additionally, the global electric vehicle battery market remained subdued in Q4 amid tepid demand.
APAC
The Propylene Carbonate market in the APAC region witnessed a stable trend in the fourth quarter of 2023. The demand from downstream industries remained moderate to high, particularly in China, which is the largest market for Propylene Carbonate in the region. The supply remained moderate with adequate inventory levels available in the domestic market. However, the market sentiments were bullish due to increased production costs and positive market conditions. The top three reasons that impacted the market were the stable demand from downstream battery manufacturing and textile dyeing industries, adequate supply, and firm supply chain operations. Additionally, there were no plant shutdowns during this period. The pricing trend of Propylene Carbonate in China exhibited a correlation of 0.6 with a negative percentage change of 2% from the previous quarter. The percentage change in price from the first half to the second half of the quarter was -3%. The pricing trend in the current quarter was lower than the same quarter of the previous year by 21%. The latest/quarter-ending price of Propylene Carbonate FOB Qingdao in China was USD 912/MT.
Europe
In the final quarter of 2023, the European propylene carbonate market displayed a bearish pricing trend influenced by various factors. In October, prices experienced a decline due to subdued demand from downstream sectors such as electrolyte solvent manufacturing and other end-use industries. Manufacturing production in the Eurozone contracted, marked by a notable drop in new orders, despite a marginal improvement in the manufacturing PMI, indicating an extended downturn. The sluggish consumer demand led to eased supply chain operations. As November unfolded, prices continued to decline, driven by persistent low demand from downstream industries. The consumer market observed abundant material availability in the region. Despite a slight improvement in the PMI, manufacturing activities remained on a downward trajectory. Supply chain easing and improved vendor performance were noted amidst subdued consumer demand and limited market transactions. December witnessed a further decrease in prices due to sustained subdued demand. Downstream industries maintained weak consumer inquiries, resulting in negative market sentiments. High product inventories and destocking activities were evident among consumers. Prices of upstream raw materials dropped, and factory gate deflation persisted. Year-end holidays and destocking efforts contributed to reduced industrial activity, prompting manufacturing companies to slow down or temporarily suspend operations.
