For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Polyisobutylene prices have decreased in the US market throughout the second quarter of 2023, backed by weak feedstock prices and sufficient inventories. The cost pressure from feedstock Isobutylene was limited as its prices dropped, as reported by market participants. In addition, the impact of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades and the expected slowdown of the US economy all argue in favor of weak economic activity, slowing down the market growth of the manufacturing sector.
Furthermore, the fragile economic conditions in the Chinese market have also impacted the quotations for the importing countries, the USA. In addition, core inflation has consistently exceeded the targeted levels set by the US Federal Reserve and has been gradually decreasing at a slower pace, resulting in strained trade activities. Despite this, demand for Polyisobutylene from the downstream automotive and construction industries has continued to gain pace in the domestic market.
On the supply front, the availability of finished stocks of Polyisobutylene was sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand, which encouraged the traders or manufacturers to revise their negative quotations. Therefore, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Texas were assessed at USD 2352/MT during June 2023.
Asia-Pacific
Polyisobutylene prices have shown mixed sentiments in the South Korean market during the second quarter of 2023. During April, Polyisobutylene prices have inched lower, backed by limited demand and sufficient inventories in the domestic market. Although feedstock Isobutylene prices have increased, it had limited bearing over the prices of Polyisobutylene. The inquiries from the downstream construction and food additives industries were limited amidst global economic uncertainties, which weighed down the prices of Polyisobutylene. In addition, South Korea's manufacturing activity contracted in April, underlining the weak global demand conditions that continue to undercut the domestic economic recovery. On the other side, South Korean exports fell in April, driven by an extended slump in sales to China and suggesting persistent pressure on the economy from frail global demand. Although, Polyisobutylene prices rebounded during May on account of improved buying trends among the end-users. The demand from the downstream automotive industries has rebounded in the domestic market. As per the sources, South Korean automotive sales increased by over 9% in May. Thus, the offtake of Polyisobutylene has increased. However, due to high inflationary pressure rising interest rates, and weak domestic economic recovery, Polyisobutylene prices decreased in June. The oversupplies of feedstock Isobutylene have impacted the positive development of Polyisobutylene. Demand from downstream construction and other sectors has subdued, and market transactions were relatively flat in the domestic market. Therefore, prices of Polyisobutylene FOB Busan were settled at USD 1960/MT during June 2023.
Europe
Polyisobutylene prices have declined drastically in the German market during the second quarter of 2023, backed by weak cost pressure and sufficient inventories. The macroeconomic factor, including high inflationary pressure, rising interest rates by the European Central Bank, and weakened purchasing sentiments, have impacted the prices of Polyisobutylene in the domestic market. In addition, the cost pressure from the feedstock Isobutylene was limited as its prices progressed in a downward trend. On the input energy front, Natural gas prices have shown fluctuation throughout the quarter. Meanwhile, demand for Polyisobutylene from the downstream construction and food additives has remained soft, resulting in decreasing consumption rates, weighing down the prices of Polyisobutylene in the domestic market. Despite the economic slowdown, the demand from the automotive industries has rebounded, but it has not impacted the prices at a very broader level. The availability of finished stocks of Polyisobutylene was adequate to meet the existing downstream demand. Moreover, Germany's manufacturing Purchasing manager's index declined from 43.2 in May to 40.6 in June, indicating a contraction in both industrial and manufacturing activity. Thus, prices of Polyisobutylene FOB Hamburg were settled at USD 2249/MT during June 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Polyisobutylene prices have witnessed an upward trend in the USA market throughout the first quarter of 2023, backed by improved buying sentiments in the market. Imports from the Asian market have turned costly as prices increased in the Asian market. Additionally, overall demand for Polyisobutylene increased as consumers continued to place more new orders in the domestic market. Amidst the banking turmoil occurring in the US market, the prices of Polyisobutylene showcased positivity as end-use (automobile) operated on a modest level. Further, market sources have indicated that used electric vehicle sales in the US saw a 32% increase in the first three months of 2023. Hence, as a result, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Texas were settled at USD 2913/MT during March 2023.
Asia- Pacific
Polyisobutylene prices have witnessed a mixed trend in China during the first quarter of 2023. During the first half of the quarter, Polyisobutylene prices decreased significantly on account of sufficient inventory and sluggish demand from the downstream automotive industry. Meanwhile, cheap imports from South Korea and other exporting countries have further weighed down the prices of Polyisobutylene. However, during the second half of the quarter, Polyisobutylene prices have risen significantly in the Chinese market, supported by the increased consumption from the downstream automotive industries. In addition, the automobile market continued to rebound as the country’s economic recovery from last year’s Covid lockdowns gathered pace. Additionally, feedstock Isobutylene prices increased, resulting in the high production cost of Polyisobutylene. Meanwhile, imports from the exporting countries have remained steady. Furthermore, as per the market participants, vehicle production and sales volume month-on-month and year-on-year have increased in February, compared with January 2023. Thus, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Qingdao were offered at USD 1998/MT during March 2023.
Europe
Polyisobutylene prices have increased in the European market throughout the first quarter of 2023 on account of improved buying trends in the regional market. In terms of domestic production, operating rates have improved due to increased consumption from the downstream industries. Feedstock Isobutylene prices have increased, resulting in the high production cost of Polyisobutylene in the regional market. In addition, demand for Polyisobutylene from the end-user automotive sector has increased in the domestic and overseas markets, thus accelerating the prices of Polyisobutylene in the region. Furthermore, market participants reported sentiment in the auto industry in Germany improved in March, with the ifo barometer rising from 7.6 to 23.7 points. According to market sources, new passenger car registration in March increased 16.6% over the previous year to 281,361 units. Thus, prices of Polyisobutylene FOB Hamburg were offered at USD 3218/MT during March 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Polyisobutylene prices declined continuously in the USA market throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 owing to sufficient inventory and weak demand dynamics. Consumer sentiment has declined in the region, which has been witnessed by the decline in the Manufacturing Purchasing Index, which dipped below 50 (i.e., 49.7) in November, signifying a contraction in both industrial and manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, cheap imports from Asia weighed down the prices of Polyisobutylene in the regional market. Furthermore, demand from the downstream automotive and allied industries has decreased amid seasonal dullness, supporting the decline in the price realizations of Polyisobutylene in the regional market. As a result, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Texas were settled at USD 2110/MT during December.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of Polyisobutylene declined consistently in China throughout the fourth quarter of 2022, backed by ample availability and weak demand. Furthermore, the ongoing lockdown measures in major cities amid rising pandemic cases lead to uncertainties in production, operation, and logistics activities. This exerted downward pressure on the end-user demand. Overall, offtake from downstream automotive and other competitive industries has continued to remain on the weak side in the domestic market. Most buyers take a side-line, and purchases were based on a need-to-need basis. Meanwhile, cheap imports from other Asian countries weighed down the prices of Polyisobutylene in the domestic market. According to the National Bureau for Statistics (NBS), manufacturing activity has witnessed a sharp decline, and Purchasing manufacturing index (PMI) dropped from 48 to 47in December, compared with the previous month. Thus, in conclusion, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Qingdao were offered at USD 1910/MT during December.
Europe
Polyisobutylene prices constantly dropped in the German market during the fourth quarter of 2022 as downstream demand remained weak while the material availability improved. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in the freight charges from Asia to Europe resulted in better-imported material available in the region. Natural gas prices stabilized in the European market after the upheaval in Q3, which softened the production cost for several commodities, including Polyisobutylene. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream automotive and other competitive industries remained subdued throughout the quarter owing to the sluggish consumer sentiment in the region. In addition, the inflation has eased during Q4. As per the data, inflation dropped from 10.1% to 9.1% in December, compared with the previous month. In conclusion, prices of Polyisobutylene FOB Hamburg were assessed at USD 1830/MT during December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third Quarter of 2022, Polyisobutylene prices showcased a fluctuation in the North American region. In the initial and mid of the third Quarter, the Polyisobutylene price gained upward momentum in the USA. High production costs amid soaring energy prices coupled with a high inflation rate contributed to the Polyisobutylene price increase across the regional market. However, the speculation of recession across the USA has slumped the demand from the downstream automotive and other allied industries towards the second half of the Quarter. Thus, Polyisobutylene prices shifted towards a downward trend during the end of Q3, bolstered by adequate inventories coupled with weak demand from the downstream industries. The automotive industry's performance has been underwhelming during Q3 of 2022; thus, the demand for Polyisobutylene has remained weak throughout the Quarter. Meanwhile, freight charges from the Asia Pacific region to US West Coast declined sharply. Hence, as of result, prices of Isobutylene CFR Texas were USD 2262/MT with a monthly decline of 2.5% during September.
Asia- Pacific
Polyisobutylene prices have shown a see-saw trend in the Asia- Pacific region throughout the third Quarter of 2022. During July and August, prices of Polyisobutylene have witnessed an upward trajectory in the Chinese market, backed by a reduced rate of supplies and a disrupted supply chain. In addition, the inventory level was average as the rate of supplies was reduced from the exporting countries, mainly South Korea. Also, Chinese ports were congested, berths were delayed, and vessels were clustering, which resulted in the limited availability of the product across the regional market. In contrast, demand from the downstream automotive industries has been stable to weak amid the slowdown in China's economy. Towards the end of Q3, prices dropped by 4.3%, supported by sufficient stockpiles in the region. Besides, limited queries from the downstream automotive industries have further led to the price drop of Polyisobutylene. As a result, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Qingdao were assessed at USD 2148/MT during September.
Europe
Prices of Polyisobutylene have shown mixed sentiments in the European market during the third Quarter of 2022. During the initial and mid of Q3, Polyisobutylene prices have increased, supported by the limited availability of the product. In addition, the domestic cost of production remains elevated due to soaring energy and operating costs, resulting in weak output rates. Although, demand from the downstream automotive and other allied industries has slumped amid high inflation rates. However, during the end of Q3, Polyisobutylene prices dropped by 3.2% owing to the sufficient inventory level and weak demand from the downstream industries. Furthermore, cheap imports from the Asian and North American regions have led to the price drop in Polyisobutylene. In contrast, port congestions in several European ports amid labor unrest and low Rhine river water level have worsened the supply chain hampering regional and international trade. Hence, as a result, prices of Polyisobutylene FOB Hamburg were assessed at USD 2004/MT during September 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The overall market outlook of Polyisobutylene showed an upward trend in Q2 of 2022 across the North American region. In the USA market, the prices of Polyisobutylene have continued to rise due to the rising raw material coupled with Supply disruption. In addition, Demand fundamentals have been buoyant throughout the region as downstream tire industries strive to maintain the balance. However, supply dynamics in the country were disturbed due to high input costs, which led the manufacturer to raise the price of materials for domestic and international converters. Furthermore, global inflation has caused Polyisobutylene prices to rise further. Since the USA majorly imported Polyisobutylene, high freight charges and transportation fuel have further supported the domestic market's price increase. As a result, prices of Polyisobutylene CFR Texas were quoted at USD 2240/MT with a month-on-month inclination of around 1.4%, compared with the previous month.
Asia-Pacific
During Q2 of 2022, Polyisobutylene showed positive market sentiments in the Asia- Pacific region on the back of the limited availability and high demand. On the raw material front, high Isobutylene cost has the other facts for the price rise across the regional market. Additionally, China's manufacturing activity grew faster, maintained by a strong output rebound as pandemic restrictions were lifted, sending factories racing to meet recovering demand. Despite this, high inflationary pressure further aided the enhanced prices of Polyisobutylene. The manufacturer had restricted choice, and consumers must pay inflated prices to secure the material. Overall, demand from the downstream tire industries has remained robust in Q2. Hence as of June 2022, Polyisobutylene prices CFR Qingdao are assessed at more than USD 2180 per MT in China.
Europe
Continuing the Russia and Ukraine crisis has been unable to relent, resulting in rising commodities prices across several European regions. The petrochemical market has been volatile since the beginning of the geopolitical tension between Russia- Ukraine. In addition, upstream Crude oil prices have been significantly volatile, resulting in uncertainty in the downstream derivatives, including raw materials. Polyisobutylene prices have been gaining continuously in the German market on the back of the limited supply across the regional market. On the raw material front, Isobutylene prices have increased the cost pressure on Polyisobutylene. Meanwhile, the demand for Polyisobutylene has slowed as uncertainty around the ongoing conflict in Europe grows further. As a ripple effect, prices of Polyisobutylene FOB Hamburg were assessed at around USD 2000per MT throughout June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Polyisobutylene witnessed strong market sentiments in the United States during Q1 2022, in contrast to the last quarter of 2021. Polyisobutylene price showed an upward trend owing to increased demand for Polyisobutylene in the manufacture of inner tubes of a tire. High upstream Naphtha prices, backed by the rise in the prices of feedstock Isobutylene and a scarcity of supply in the region because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, had a considerable influence on production rates and operational costs. Furthermore, South Korea, a significant exporter, faced scarcity in the domestic market due to covid cases' resurgence in the last quarter. As a result, high freight charges interrupted supply chains, resulted in supply shortages in the region. Polyisobutylene CFR Texas (USA) prices were assessed at USD 2145/MT during March 2022.
Asia-Pacific
Prices of Polyisobutylene showed an upward trend in the Asia-Pacific region during the first quarter of 2022. Firming upstream Naphtha prices and the feedstock Isobutylene prices, coupled with the supply scarcity in the region on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, had a significant impact on the production costs and rates. Demand from the tire industry remained robust throughout the first quarter of 2022. Increase in raw material and high port congestion in South Korea hampered the supplies in the other parts of the region. Additionally, supply chains were affected by high freight charges because of the container shortage, resulting in the supply shortfall in the region. Polyisobutylene CFR Qingdao (China) prices were estimated at USD 2050/MT during March 2022.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, Polyisobutylene prices in Europe continued to increase due to the crippling availability of the product in the region. Demand from the downstream tire industry increased and remained stable throughout Q1 2022. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict had affected the upstream Naphtha prices, followed by the rise in feedstock Isobutylene prices, which impacted the market dynamics and resulted in the increased costs of Polyisobutylene in the region. Polyisobutylene FOB Hamburg (Germany) prices were settled at USD 1955/MT in the last month of the first quarter 2022, up 4% from the previous quarter. Furthermore, certain production units reduced their running rates due to high energy prices in the European region.
For the quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In North America, the prices of Polyisobutylene remained strong throughout the quarter with little deflection towards the last week of December. Feedstock Isobutylene and Naphtha prices were also strong. Naphtha prices have stabilized in the US market on the back of stagnant demand for heavy naphtha as a reformer feedstock on the US Gulf coast. While the domestic demand picture has been little changed, naphtha prices have surged by a slight margin along with the underlying pricing basis, Gulf coast conventional gasoline. Heavy naphtha prices for US FOB Texas in December are reported to be USD650 per metric tonne. Downstream Automobile and Adhesive industries were heard to be operated strongly in this quarter with increase in demand from the consumer’s end.
Asia Pacific
In Q4, the demand and prices remained robust towards the first half of quarter. Upstream Naphtha and Isobutylene prices robust with increase in consumption from the downstream automobile industries. Asian naphtha market is scheduled to see ebbing demand from olefin market with the beginning of year-end occasions, but the new upturn in the reforming spread had attracted gasoline blending demand. Demand for naphtha as a steam cracker feedstock is relied upon to endure a shot as the key CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and C+F Japan naphtha spread narrowed $5/MT day on day to $308/MT at the Asian close Dec. 24. Increased demand for polyisobutylene from key industries, including automotive, construction, cosmetics, and aerospace, in emerging economies such as China and India had kept the market operated.
Europe
In Q4, the market was vigorous with expansion in crude prices compared with Q2 and Q3. The inventory all through the region was impeded on account of logistics issues with shortage of carriers and port and appropriation centre workers which impacted the PolyIsobutylene market. Feedstock Isobutylene prices in Germany maxed in November where prices were hovering around $1086/ton FD Hamburg-$ 1148/ton FD Hamburg. The downstream Construction and Automobile market was operated stably in this quarter with increase in sales and revenue of the major end user enterprises. However, towards December, the expenses started to slip due to Sufficient stock and frail market demand which pushed the value pattern downwards.
