For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American phosphonate market experienced a consistent decline in prices, driven by several key factors. Reduced demand from downstream sectors such as textiles and paper, coupled with ample material availability and weak consumption, contributed significantly to the downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the market faced challenges due to ongoing disruptions and periodic plant shutdowns, including issues at major facilities.
In the U.S., where the most significant price fluctuations occurred, additional factors further exacerbated the market challenges. Consumer spending and industrial activities in the country saw a notable decline, which directly impacted the consumption of phosphonates, particularly in sectors like water treatment, detergents, and industrial cleaning. This reduction in demand was compounded by global disruptions, as the ongoing conflict in Middle Eastern regions led to interruptions in trade routes and supply chains, further influencing the availability and cost of key raw materials.
The price drop became more pronounced in the latter half of the quarter, signaling a strong downward trend. By the end of Q3 2024, phosphonate prices had settled at lower lavels, highlighting the negative market sentiment shaped by persistent price declines and challenging market dynamics throughout the period.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Phosphonate market in the APAC region has experienced stable pricing dynamics. The overall stability can be attributed to various factors influencing market prices. Demand from downstream industries like water treatment, paper, and pulp has played a significant role in maintaining price consistency. However, challenges in the upstream markets, such as yellow phosphorus and phosphorus trichloride, have added pressure on prices. Despite steady consumption patterns and production levels, the market has struggled with weak consumer inquiries and subdued demand in certain sectors. Specifically focusing on China, the market has witnessed the most significant price changes within the region. The quarter recorded a -6.1% decrease compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing market challenges. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter change of -7.4% highlights the continuous downward trend in pricing. Notably, the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant fluctuations, indicating a stable pricing environment. The quarter-ending price of USD 890/MT for Phosphonate ATMP 50%-FOB Shanghai in China underscores the prevailing stability in prices despite internal and external market influences.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Phosphonate market in Europe experienced a downturn in prices, with Germany notably affected by significant fluctuations. The decrease in prices can be attributed to various factors, including weakening demand from downstream sectors such as textiles, water treatment, and paper industries, coupled with reduced consumer spending and sluggish economic growth. Moreover, high material availability in the region further contributed to the downward pressure on prices. The overall trend in the market indicated a negative sentiment, with a notable -6% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices saw a decline of -1%, reflecting the challenging market conditions faced by Phosphonate producers and distributors. However, there was a slight 1% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. The quarter-ending price of USD 1050/MT of Phosphonate ATMP-CFR Hamburg in Germany underscored the stable yet downward pricing environment prevalent throughout Q3. The consistent decrease in prices underscores the overall challenging market dynamics and subdued demand in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Phosphonate market in North America experienced an upward trend. Prices increased in the initial weeks due to heightened consumer demand, particularly in the industrial, household, and water treatment sectors, as summer approached. The quarter was marked by heightened manufacturing costs, propelled by increased prices of upstream Yellow Phosphorus and sustained demand from downstream industries.
By mid-Q2 2024, Phosphonate prices continued to rise because of increased demand and supply constraints. Although the textile and paper industries showed limited demand, the influence of upstream raw materials was significant. While business confidence improved slightly during the quarter, consumer demand in sectors other than the water treatment industry remained lackluster. Although Q1 GDP was weaker than expected, this was primarily due to softer net exports and inventory investment, which offset stronger domestic economic activity.
In the final month of the quarter, Phosphonate prices increased further due to persistent supply stress and strong domestic demand. Upstream prices continued to have an impact, while higher freight charges due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns also exerted pressure on the Phosphonate market. The U.S. economy showed positive signs, with projections of high inbound cargo volumes despite ongoing supply chain challenges, leading to optimism among industry participants about the future.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the Phosphonate market in the APAC region experienced a marked downturn, driven by several pivotal factors. Firstly, increased inventories due to expanded manufacturing activities led to an oversupply situation, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the cost support from upstream phosphorus trichloride was stable, but not strong enough to counterbalance the weak demand from downstream sectors, particularly fertilizers, which saw sluggish procurement. Focusing on China, the region with the most significant price fluctuation, the decreasing trend in Phosphonate prices was even more pronounced. Seasonality played a crucial role, with lower consumption rates during the off-peak season contributing to the price decline. Correlation with upstream markets showed that steady prices in raw materials like phosphorus trichloride could not mitigate the overall weakening demand. The prices of Phosphonate ATMP 50% FOB Shanghai dropped by 18% compared to the same quarter last year and saw a 5% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. Additionally, a comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 6% decline, underscoring a progressively negative trend. The quarter concluded with the price settling at USD 895/MT, reflecting a negative pricing environment throughout the period. Overall, the pricing dynamics in this quarter have been negative, driven by a confluence of high inventories, weak downstream demand, and stable but insufficient cost support from upstream markets. This has created an overwhelmingly bearish sentiment in the APAC Phosphonate market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Phosphonate market experienced a notable uptick in prices driven by several key factors. This quarter saw heightened competition and an influx of low-cost imports creating a challenging landscape for domestic producers. However, consistent supply and strategic restocking ahead of the summer holidays bolstered market sentiment. The chemical industry's confidence began to rebound, supported by improved demand fundamentals across various downstream sectors such as textiles, water treatment, and paper and pulp. Despite persistent high energy and raw material costs, the market dynamics leaned towards a gradual price escalation. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trends displayed a clear seasonal effect, with an uptick in consumer inquiries and demand correlating with pre-holiday restocking activities. The price changes in Germany showed a substantial 9.5% decrease from the same quarter last year, reflecting a further slump after economic downturns previously. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices rose by 2.5%, underscoring a consistent growth trajectory. The first half of the quarter saw slightly lower prices compared to the second half, with a 2% increase as market conditions tightened and demand solidified. Conclusively, the quarter-ending price for Phosphonate ATMP-CFR Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1160/MT. This steady rise in prices throughout Q2 2024 underscores a positive pricing environment, marked by moderate to high supply and a resurgence in demand, indicating a stable yet bullish market sentiment. Overall, this quarter has been characterized by a strong recovery in the phosphate market, with Germany at the forefront of this upward trend.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing of Phosphonate in the North American region was a tale of mixed sentiments. In the USA, the overall trend leaned towards bearish, witnessing price declines over the quarter. Initially, Phosphonate prices dipped due to subdued demand, notably in water treatment and paper-making sectors. Operations were disrupted by severe weather, leading to temporary shutdowns.
Paper demand saw a 2% decrease, reflecting a broader slowdown in packaging. Supply chain interruptions in the Middle East caused delays in shipping, impacting Phosphonate trade. However, the last two months saw a slight price increase. Primarily, the uptick was influenced by increased costs of upstream materials like Phosphorus, driving up production expenses and consequently affecting Phosphonate pricing.
Moreover, elevated freight charges, stemming from supply disruptions in the Middle East and potential issues in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, continued to exert upward pressure on product prices. Overall, the demand in downstream water treatment and paper-making sectors remained subdued, resulting in reduced consumption and weaker market conditions. The downturn in the paper-making sector, coupled with declining packaging demand, further dampened the overall demand outlook in the region.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by mixed trends in the pricing of Phosphonate in the APAC region. China experienced significant price changes during this period due to several factors. One key factor is the level of demand from downstream industries such as water treatment and cleaning. The demand has been moderate to high, driven by increased consumption and restocking activities. However, the overall demand has been tempered by the Lunar New Year holidays, which led to reduced industrial activities and limited market transactions.
In China, the pricing trends have been more pronounced compared to other countries in the region. The market has experienced a bearish sentiment, with prices declining due to weak consumer demand and high inventories. The Lunar New Year holidays and destocking activities have contributed to lower industrial activities and reduced demand for raw materials. Looking at the quarterly price changes, Phosphonate prices in Q1 2024 have remained relatively stable compared to the same quarter last year.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for Phosphonate in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was bearish overall, with China experiencing significant price declines. Factors such as demand, supply, and seasonality have influenced the market prices, leading to varying price trends in different countries. The latest quarter-ending price for Phosphonate ATMP 50%-FOB Shanghai in China was recorded at USD 960/MT.
Europe
The European Phosphonate market in Q1 2024 experienced a decline in prices, primarily influenced by factors such as increased imports of low-priced goods, lackluster consumer demand, and reduced manufacturing costs. Inquiries from downstream industries, including water treatment and cleansing, remained limited, leading to a decrease in market transactions. The majority of phosphonates in the region are sourced from neighboring countries.
Manufacturers adjusted their prices in response to lower manufacturing costs resulting from the decreased prices of upstream Phosphorus Trichloride. The overall market sentiment was bearish, with industrial activities remaining subdued and limited international demand. Overall, the Phosphonate pricing environment in Europe during Q1 2024 was negative, with prices experiencing a notable decline.
The market was influenced by factors such as increased imports, limited demand, and reduced manufacturing costs. The trend of lower prices was consistent throughout the quarter. In Germany, the price of Phosphonate ATMP-CFR Hamburg decreased by USD 30/MT (-2.7%) in Q1 2024, reaching a quarter-ending price of USD 1050/MT. The German economy continued to struggle, with poor demand across various segments.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Phosphonate market in the USA demonstrated mixed sentiments and the prices fluctuated throughout this period. In October, Phosphonate prices in the US surged due to elevated import costs, but by November, inflation subsided, bringing about improved business conditions. This positive trend persisted into December as inflationary pressures continued to ease. The heightened demand from water treatment and associated industries played a role in enhancing business conditions, while major exporting nations adjusted selling prices upward owing to increased production costs.
In November, heightened consumer spending and improved market activities bolstered overall economic conditions. Nevertheless, downstream industries faced only moderate demand. Despite apprehensions regarding a potential recession, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties, consumer confidence in the US grew in both November and December, indicating optimism about future business conditions.
Overall, the Phosphonate market in North America was stable, and steady product procurement was observed overall. Throughout this quarter, high inflation, higher interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical tensions with China also influenced the market sentiments in the region.
APAC
The APAC region phosphonate market in Q4 2023 witnessed a stable market situation with a moderate supply. Domestic manufacturers operated at a moderate pace due to low purchase orders, resulting in sufficient inventory levels to meet consumer demand. However, production costs continued to increase as the cost support from upstream Yellow Phosphorus rose. One of the primary factors impacting the market was the moderate production rates in domestic manufacturing facilities, as indicated by the manufacturing PMI data. This, coupled with low purchase orders, contributed to the stable market situation. In terms of pricing, China experienced a bullish market with moderate supply. The prices of phosphonates, specifically DTPMP and ATMP, saw an increase of 2.1% and 2.8% respectively compared to the previous quarter. This upward trend can be attributed to the increased cost support from upstream Yellow Phosphorus. Overall, the APAC phosphonate market remained stable in Q4 2023, with moderate supply and production rates. The prices in China experienced a bullish trend due to increased production costs. The latest price of Phosphonate ATMP 50%-FOB Shanghai in China for this quarter is USD 995/MT.
Europe
The Phosphonate market in Europe during the fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by a bearish sentiment and low demand from the detergent, cleaning, and water treatment industries. The market witnessed a decrease in prices due to imports of low-priced goods and a poor demand outlook. In Germany, the largest market for Phosphonate in the region, prices dropped further as consumer inquiries remained subdued and inflation fell to its lowest level since the Ukraine crisis. The overall market sentiments were weak, and market transactions were limited, leading to moderate supply and inventory levels. Looking at the price trends, there was a 4% decrease in prices compared to the previous quarter, indicating a decline in the market. However, the price in the current quarter remained stable at USD 1050/MT of Phosphonate ATMP-CFR Hamburg in Germany. The factors influencing the market included imports of low-priced goods, sluggish consumer demand, and fluctuations in energy prices. Overall, the market outlook for Phosphonate in the Europe region during the fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by low demand and bearish pricing trends.
