For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Palladium Price Index rose by 15.0% quarter-over-quarter, driven by stockpiling urgency.
• The average Palladium price for the quarter was approximately USD 1086.67/MT reflecting delivered cost pressures.
• Palladium Spot Price exhibited intra-month swings as import delays and localized stock releases altered availability.
• Palladium Price Forecast suggests moderated gains as inventories correct, balancing stockpiling with easing automotive demand.
• Palladium Production Cost Trend remained elevated, driven by high lease rates freight bottlenecks refinery premiums.
• Palladium Demand Outlook remains firm for automotive and defence, offset by electrification and substitution trends.
• Inventory dynamics influenced the Palladium Price Index as recycling improved yet import timing created volatility.
• Regional delivered premiums in Alabama reflected allocation shifts, tightening availability and supporting near-term Spot Price.
Why did the price of Palladium change in September 2025 in North America?
• Import disruptions from South Africa and Russia constrained supply, intensifying delivered cost pressures and urgency.
• Domestic buyers stockpiled palladium for automotive and defence, raising demand and pressuring local Price Index.
• High lease rates, freight bottlenecks, and constrained recycling kept the Palladium Production Cost Trend elevated.
APAC
• In Malaysia, the Palladium Price Index rose by 14.75% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, prompting buying.
• The average Palladium price for the quarter was approximately USD 1151.33/MT amid logistics and restocking.
• Palladium Spot Price tightened as port delays and higher freight forced refiners into urgent buying.
• Palladium Price Forecast shows near-term volatility with potential September moderation as pent-up shipments enter markets.
• Palladium Production Cost Trend pressured sellers as elevated lease rates and freight increased procurement expenses.
• Palladium Demand Outlook reflects automotive restocking supporting demand, partially offset by substitution and EV adoption.
• Palladium Price Index gains were supported by inventory draws, regional export orders and buyer restocking.
• Major supplier outages were limited, but bonded warehouse disruption and transshipment congestion sustained supply pressures.
Why did the price of Palladium change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Port congestion and bonded warehouse outages delayed shipments, creating supply tightness and upward price pressure.
• Rising freight costs and elevated lease rates raised procurement expenses, supporting higher regional offers locally.
• Automotive restocking increased immediate demand while substitution trends and EV adoption moderated medium-term palladium consumption.
Europe
• In Germany, the Palladium Price Index rose by 9.0% quarter-over-quarter, driven by supply squeeze and restocking.
• The average Palladium price for the quarter was approximately USD 1206/MT, Ruhr-delivered market reporting confirmed.
• Palladium Spot Price strengthened as restocking reduced lots, lifting the Ruhr Price Index among distributors.
• Palladium Price Forecast suggests short moderation as shipments normalize, seasonally supported restocking may lift offers.
• Palladium Production Cost Trend remains elevated because higher energy and logistics premiums sustain seller pricing.
• Palladium Demand Outlook is mixed as automotive registrations fluctuated, while industrial applications steady consumption levels.
• Inventory accumulation pressured the Palladium Price Index, prompting distributors to offer concessions on surplus metal.
• Ruhr merchants reported constrained sourcing from South Africa and Russia, tightening supplies influencing Price Index.
Why did the price of Palladium change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Customs delays and import shifts reduced delivered volumes, creating immediate supply tightness and premium bids.
• Automotive restocking and stable industrial demand intensified buying, depleting inventories and elevating Ruhr Price Index pressures.
• High energy costs suppressed recycling returns, reducing secondary supply while geopolitical risks maintained scarce market availability.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Palladium Price Index in the U.S. declined by 5.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflecting a structural demand shift driven by accelerating EV adoption and persistent weakness in ICE vehicle sales. Despite brief price gains in June, the broader quarterly trend remained bearish.
• The Palladium Production Cost Trend stayed relatively steady, with domestic refiners maintaining consistent output. However, import costs rose due to trade tensions and disruptions in sourcing from South Africa and Russia, pushing some buyers toward higher-cost, non-sanctioned alternatives.
• The Palladium Demand Outlook was pressured by lower ICE vehicle demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. While hybrid trucks and defence applications supported some demand pockets, most industrial and automotive segments reduced procurement amid surplus expectations.
Why did the Palladium Spot Price change in July 2025 in North America ?
The Palladium Spot Price held broadly stable in July, following steep declines earlier in the quarter. Adequate inventories and continued hesitancy among buyers capped price movements. The Palladium Price Forecast remains flat in the near term, with limited upside unless restocking or export demand improves.
Europe
• The Palladium Price Index in Germany declined by 5.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, extending April and May’s consecutive drops. Weak automotive sector offtake, coupled with rising EV and hybrid sales, led to reduced reliance on palladium-based catalytic converters.
• The Palladium Production Cost Trend was stable, with no significant supply chain disruptions reported. Domestic inventories remained well-stocked, and FD Ruhr deliveries continued uninterrupted despite global logistics volatility.
• The Palladium Demand Outlook stayed muted due to Germany’s rapid transition toward electrified transport. New car registrations showed growing EV and hybrid shares, further eroding demand for palladium in ICE drivetrain applications.
Why did the Palladium Spot Price change in July 2025 in Europe?
The Palladium Spot Price in Germany edged slightly lower in July, driven by weak automotive demand and steady local inventories. The Palladium Price Forecast remains bearish, as continued EV momentum and lacklustre industrial offtake weigh on pricing dynamics.
Asia Pacific
• The Palladium Price Index in Malaysia declined by 5.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, impacted by weak regional demand and rising EV adoption. While June saw a brief uptick in spot pricing, it was insufficient to reverse the quarterly trend.
• The Palladium Production Cost Trend rose slightly due to higher freight charges and congestion at transshipment ports like Port Klang. Importers faced inconsistent delivery schedules and increased premiums amid tighter spot availability.
• The Palladium Demand Outlook remained cautious. Modest restocking from auto parts suppliers and regulatory-driven catalyst demand supported June activity, but longer-term fundamentals were undermined by declining ICE vehicle relevance.
Why did the Palladium Spot Price change in July 2025 in Asia?
The Palladium Spot Price in Malaysia stabilized in July after June’s brief rally, with supply chains catching up to earlier delays. However, subdued demand and elevated inventories prevented further gains. The Palladium Price Forecast stays neutral to bearish as structural shifts in mobility and weak global demand cap market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• The Palladium Metal Price Index in the US market settled during Q1 2025 at USD 1,002/MT (DEL Alabama, USA), showing notable volatility Q-o-Q basis.
• Why did the price of Palladium Metal change in April 2025?
Palladium metal Prices increased marginally in the early week of April, influenced by strengthening demand from automotive and anticipated tariff impacts on imports.
• In January, prices rose 3.8%, driven by stable Palladium Metal Spot Price levels, moderate inventory, and strong demand in the electric vehicle and light truck segments.
• February recorded a 2% decline, attributed to a modest rise in inventory and slowing auto sales—particularly in the passenger car segment.
• March saw a 1% price uptick on the back of rising auto unit sales (+9.1%) and speculation around new tariffs affecting imports.
• The Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend in the U.S. remained sensitive to global supply factors, especially Russia and South Africa, as well as local market conditions.
• The Palladium Metal Demand Outlook in North America remains positive, bolstered by automotive sector resilience and procurement urgency amid regulatory shifts.
• The Palladium Metal Price Forecast suggests continued mild upward pressure in Q2 2025 as the U.S. market adapts to policy and demand-side dynamics.
Europe
• The Palladium Metal Price Index for Europe ended Q1 2025 at USD 1,173/MT (FD Ruhr, Germany), showing a volatile but net positive quarterly performance.
• Why did the price of Palladium Metal change in April 2025?
Palladium metal prices increased slightly in early April, driven by tightening global supply and uncertainty over auto trade tariffs.
• January saw a 3.8% price increase due to moderate inventory and a strong rise in automotive sales (+58.77% MoM in passenger vehicles).
• In February, prices declined 2% as Nornickel’s anticipated production uptick elevated inventory levels; car sales dipped by 6.4%, reflecting EV market expansion.
• March prices grew 1%, influenced by a 5.8% drop in South African production, reinforcing global supply tightness.
• Geopolitical risks, including U.S. tariffs, have affected the Palladium Metal Spot Price and contributed to market uncertainty.
• The Palladium Metal Demand Outlook is mixed, with ICE vehicle demand pressured by growing EV adoption.
• The Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend was affected by refining costs, energy prices, and global supply chain realignments.
• Looking forward, the Palladium Metal Price Forecast reflects short-term volatility with long-term demand risk due to structural shifts toward EVs.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The Palladium Metal Price Index in APAC closed Q1 2025 at USD 1,064/MT (Ex-Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia), reflecting a quarter of fluctuations amid regional market pressures.
• Why did the price of Palladium Metal change in April 2025?
Prices increased in early April, spurred by rising local vehicle production and global supply concerns.
• January began with a 3.8% increase despite a dramatic 36.1% fall in vehicle registrations, driven by speculative buying post-US Fed interest rate signals.
• February experienced a 2% decline as inventory levels rose and demand from gasoline vehicles remained under pressure; EV and hybrid growth was present but insufficient.
• March posted a 1% price uptick, aided by reduced palladium supply from South Africa and a 23.9% MoM increase in sales from local carmaker Proton.
• The Palladium Metal Spot Price responded to regional supply adjustments and purchasing behavior among industrial consumers.
• The Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend in APAC reflected logistical challenges, energy cost swings, and reliance on imports for refined palladium.
• The Palladium Metal Demand Outlook remains cautious, with future consumption influenced by EV adoption rates and emissions regulation updates.
• The Palladium Metal Price Forecast indicates potential mild gains in Q2 2025, contingent on the automotive recovery and supply-side tightness.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in North America experienced notable fluctuations influenced by supply constraints and demand shifts in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Prices increased by 7% in October due to tight supply and geopolitical tensions surrounding potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports. However, by November, the market stabilized amidst supply fluctuations, despite new export orders decreasing at an accelerated rate due to international demand challenges. Finally, in December, palladium prices fell by 4% as trading activity slowed during the holiday season, and a weaker dollar impacted market sentiment.
Key factors affecting the market included elevated palladium inventories stemming from earlier restocking efforts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russian supplier Norilsk Nickel, which controls a significant portion of global palladium supply. Despite a marginal uptick in automotive demand—reflected by a 2.8% increase in vehicle sales—the overall palladium demand faced pressures from the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs).
The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal DEL Alabama stood at USD 975/oz. Overall, Q4 pricing trends showed initial increases followed by stabilization and subsequent declines, illustrating the interplay of supply chain dynamics, consumer trends, and geopolitical influences that market participants must navigate.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in Europe exhibited significant volatility, driven by a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Prices rose by 7% in October due to tight supply amid potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports, which created uncertainty in market access to this vital resource, particularly from MMC Norilsk Nickel, the largest global producer. However, by November, prices stabilized as the automotive sector maintained its reliance on palladium, though the inventory levels remained slightly elevated due to earlier restocking efforts. The environment turned more challenging in December, with palladium prices falling by 4%, primarily influenced by seasonal trading slowdowns during the holidays and a weakening dollar. Demand from the gasoline-powered vehicle segment remained tepid, as indicated by a 7.1% decline in new passenger car registrations in December, exacerbating concerns over future palladium demand amid the industry's transition to electric vehicles. The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal FD Ruhr was USD 1,142/oz. Q4 pricing trends reflected a mix of initial increases, stabilization, and eventual declines, illustrating the complexities of supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting consumer preferences that market participants must navigate moving forward.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in the APAC region experienced notable fluctuations, primarily driven by geopolitical factors and shifting demand dynamics, particularly in the automotive sector. Palladium prices surged by 7% in October, fuelled by tight supply amid potential U.S. sanctions against Russian exports, notably from Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer. However, the momentum shifted, leading to price stabilization in November due to consistent demand from the automotive industry, despite concerns over electric vehicle (EV) adoption impacting traditional gasoline-powered vehicle sales. By December, palladium prices fell by 4%, influenced by decreased trading activity during the holiday season and a weaker dollar. The Chinese market, fundamental to palladium demand, showed robust performance with nearly 1.27 million new-energy vehicles sold in November, reflecting strong year-on-year growth. Despite this, overall demand for palladium waned as EV sales surged, indicating a critical transition within the automotive sector. The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal Ex-Shanghai was USD 1,142/oz. Throughout Q4, prices displayed a trend of initial increases followed by stabilization and subsequent declines, illustrating the complexities faced by market participants amid geopolitical uncertainties and evolving demand landscapes.
