For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, Nonyl Phenol prices in North America showed a marked increase, particularly in the U.S., where the most significant fluctuations were observed. This upward price trend was primarily driven by a supply-demand imbalance in the Nonyl Phenol Ethoxylates market.
While demand from key downstream sectors, such as detergents and surfactants, remained moderate, production levels were constrained due to operational challenges and below-capacity facility utilization. The availability of upstream Phenol supported consistent production, but supply chain disruptions, particularly related to reduced oil production, further affected the market.
Hurricanes and maintenance activities in the oil sector contributed to a decline in crude oil output, which had a cascading effect on the petrochemical market, including Nonyl Phenol. This dynamic was exacerbated by the 0.7% drop in global oil production, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA), with OPEC's output decreasing by 650,000 barrels per day. These supply constraints, combined with moderate demand, resulted in a steady increase in Nonyl Phenol prices throughout Q3 2024.
Asia
In the third quarter of 2024, the Asian Nonyl Phenol market witnessed a steady rise in prices, driven primarily by consistent demand from downstream sectors, including the Nonyl Phenol Ethoxylates industry, which serves key applications in personal care and detergents. China emerged as a focal point, where prices showed the most significant upward trend. In India, the Nonyl Phenol market dynamics were stable, supported by moderate demand, though seasonal factors like the monsoon season slightly influenced consumption. Nonyl Phenol prices in India reflected a 2.1% increase from the previous quarter, with the quarter-ending price recorded at USD 2015/MT CFR JNPT. Overall, supply chain stability, particularly the availability of upstream raw materials like Phenol, allowed for uninterrupted production and contributed to the overall price momentum across the region. However, Notable disruptions during the quarter included port congestion and labor strikes, affecting supply chains, such as Mundra Port congestion, and Port and dock workers' hunger strikes. Overall, the supply side provided moderate support for the Nonyl Phenol prices throughout the quarter. The OPEC basket crude oil prices declined during September 2024 and were assessed at USD 73.59 per barrel further affecting the Nonyl Phenol upstream costs.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Nonyl Phenol pricing landscape in Europe, particularly within the Nonyl Ethoxylates sector, exhibited a significant upward trend, with Germany witnessing the most pronounced fluctuations. Several interrelated factors influenced this pricing environment. The consistent rise in crude oil prices has substantially impacted the manufacturing costs of Nonyl phenol, contributing to the overall price increase. This surge has been compounded by limited supplies of finished goods and robust demand from the cleaning sector, creating additional pressure on prices. Seasonal influences, including the upcoming holiday season and a reduction in manufacturing activities, also played a crucial role in shaping the pricing dynamics. Germany, as a pivotal player in this market, experienced substantial price changes throughout the quarter. The stabilization of demand from downstream industries at the termination of the quarter, coupled with ongoing supply chain disruptions and reduced production rates, resulted in a supply shortage that further pushed prices upward. Despite these price pressures, the euro area’s manufacturing sector contracted towards the end of the quarter, indicating broader economic challenges that could impact future demand for Nonyl Phenol and its derivatives. As manufacturers navigated these fluctuating conditions, the market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, with a focus on adapting to evolving supply and demand dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Nonyl Phenol market in North America exhibited notable stability, particularly in the latter half of the quarter. This stability was influenced by several significant factors shaping its pricing landscape. Balanced demand and supply chains played a crucial role in maintaining price stability during this period. The surfactant industry, a key downstream sector, showed moderate demand, contributing to the equilibrium in Nonyl Phenol pricing. Expected seasonal fluctuations, such as the Atlantic hurricane season, led downstream market participants to adopt cautious procurement strategies, ensuring their stockpiles were adequately padded against potential disruptions.
In the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price activities during this period, Nonyl Phenol prices remained fundamentally stable. This stability reflected a balanced sentiment in the market, indicating neither positive nor negative volatility but rather an equilibrium maintained by balanced supply-demand dynamics and prudent inventory management.
Hurricane Beryl halted industrial production in the USA in June 2024, with floods further disrupting downstream demand in the petroleum industry. Imports of US-origin Nonyl Phenol gained traction in the North American market, as US producers maintained strong pricing due to reduced domestic supplies and high local prices during this quarter.
APAC
In the quarter ending June 2024, the price of Nonyl Phenol in Asia remained on a slight surge due to an unchanged downstream market and a pause in demand from the surfactant sector amid the monsoon season. In April 2024, Nonyl Phenol prices in the market surged, driven by increased activity in the downstream surfactant sector, coupled with low inventory levels. India's current downstream sector reflects the most favorable conditions witnessed in the past decade, boosting confidence among homebuyers and investors nationwide and prompting heightened production in the surfactant industry due to a rise in the seasonal inclination. Furthermore, demand consistently outpaced supply, suggesting that Nonyl Phenol prices would rise whenever new inventory entered the market. However, In May and June 2024, the Nonyl Phenol market experienced a downward price trend, driven by unchanged downstream demand and increased regional supplies. The surfactant segment and other primary downstream industries showed little interest in stocking, influenced by reduced production activities and a seasonal lull. Market strategies focused on purchasing during price declines and managing existing inventory. The export market remained subdued, with Chinese buyers focused on domestic replenishment and early order execution. As the quarter concluded, the price of Nonyl Phenol CFR JNPT in India stood at USD 1957/MT, underlining a negative pricing environment at the end of Q2 2024.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Nonyl Phenol market in Europe exhibited a persistent yet moderate upward trend, primarily driven by supply constraints, heightened production costs, and fluctuating feedstock prices. Supply chain disruptions and strategic production cutbacks by manufacturers exacerbated the material's scarcity. Additionally, increased operational expenses and stable demand from the surfactant sector collectively contributed to the rising Nonyl Phenol pricing environment. In Germany, the market experienced the most pronounced price changes within the region. Seasonal factors played a crucial role, with increased demand from the surfactant sector consistent with typical seasonal cycles. This incremental yet consistent rise reflected a balanced market condition, where slight demand improvements were met with constrained supply, fostering a stable to positive pricing environment. By the end of Q2 2024, Nonyl Phenol prices marked a steady culmination of the quarter’s upward trend, affirming the positive pricing momentum despite underlying volatility. Additionally, port operations were affected by a workers’ strike in June 2024, impacting ports such as Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Brake, and Emden. The dispute over the collective agreement led to strikes at German container ports, halting activities at the Port of Hamburg for two days before a fourth round of negotiations began. The strikes later affected Wilhelmshaven, Bremen, and Emden, causing operational disruptions at container terminals. A prolonged strike could delay operations at Hamburg and Bremerhaven ports in August, severely impacting German exports, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the North American Nonyl Phenol market experienced a continuous upward price trend. The market remained bullish, characterized by limited inventories and moderate demand.
However, the industry faced challenges such as disruptions in logistics and escalating freight rates due to ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea region. Efforts to address potential disruptions to shipping supply routes through Baltimore included the expansion of storage capacity in nearby areas like Philadelphia. Nevertheless, even minor logistical challenges could affect pricing in the region. The closure of the Port of Baltimore coincided with increased production rates in Europe, potentially resulting in surplus Nonyl Phenol that could be directed to the US East Coast.
Concerns persisted about low inventory levels in northeastern US tanks, although there has been slight improvement recently, allowing for more consistent price increases compared to regions with better supply and logistics. This trend was primarily driven by constrained production volumes and increased demand from the downstream sector.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 was a mixed period for Nonyl Phenol pricing in the APAC region. Overall, market prices were influenced by various factors, resulting in both positive and negative trends. In terms of India, which experienced the most significant price changes, the market saw a notable increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year. Several factors contributed to the price changes in India. Limited regional supplies and stock shortages drove up prices, as reduced production rates in major exporting countries affected imports. Additionally, delays in cargo movement due to the ongoing situation in the Red Sea contributed to increased costs and low stock availability. Sellers raised prices in response to these limited supplies and low imports from regional suppliers. In terms of overall trends, the market was bullish, with low supply and moderate demand. Downstream orders were limited, further pushing up prices due to supply disruptions and tight stock availability. However, demand was moderate, with improved production rates in the downstream manufacturing industry. Looking at the price changes within the quarter, there was an 8.4% increase in Nonyl Phenol prices in India. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 2034/MT. It is important to note that there was no significant price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. In conclusion, the Nonyl Phenol pricing environment in the APAC region, particularly in India, was positive overall, with prices increasing compared to the same quarter last year. Limited supplies, low imports, and tight stock availability drove up prices, despite moderate demand.
Europe
The Nonyl Phenol market in Europe faced a challenging Q1 in 2024, with various factors impacting the industry. Prices surged in the regional market due to an increase in downstream chemical industry demand and constrained supplies. The increase in prices in the European market during the quarter ending March 2024 reflected moderate demand and a scarcity of suppliers. Challenges faced by the European supply chain, including logistics disruptions linked to the Red Sea turmoil, contributed to the current Nonyl Phenol pricing trend. Downstream production rates decreased due to supply disruptions, leading market participants to take a cautious stance on further changes. Limited supplies in the regional market were notable despite low demand fundamentals amidst slowed construction activities. Global crude oil prices surged, surpassing USD 87 per barrel, driven by factors like tighter physical markets, OPEC+ production cuts extension, and geopolitical tensions. However, prices in the German market remained stagnant, with a narrowed demand-supply gap and limited stock availability amid rising input costs in the middle of the quarter. Supply concerns emerged in March 2024 as the Easter holidays approached, particularly focusing on German ports facing closures during weeks 13 and 14 due to the holidays.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Nonyl Phenol prices were relatively stable in the fourth quarter of 2023 in the North American region. Meanwhile, the American Nonyl Phenol market situation remained balanced during December 2023, and prices experienced stagnancy, with no marked shift in the purchasing sentiments from the downstream Ethoxylates and surfactant industry.
Nonyl Phenol buyers had paused purchasing activities in anticipation of further discounts in the prices as the downstream market faced challenges due to various factors, including logistics and hampered production rates. According to the analysis, the export prices for US Nonyl Phenol showed no variation in the middle of December and were also likely to be influenced by the uncertain downstream market dynamics in January 2024.
From the supply perspective, globally, freight markets experienced elevated demurrage costs and extended transit voyage times due to congestion in major international waterways in the preceding months. The crucial Panama Canal route had been affected by low water levels, leading to restrictions on vessel hull drafts and reduced transit volumes throughout the quarter ending December 2023.
APAC
In the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2023, the Nonyl Phenol market faced several challenges. The factor affecting the market was the limited stock availability, leading to an increase in the prices in the first half of the quarter. Further, the Nonyl Phenol prices had consolidated southward in the middle of December 2023 in the Asian market, as the downstream market situation showed no signs of resilience. In Asia, the Nonyl Phenol prices exhibited a relatively stable trend in December 2023 as the demand from the downstream surfactant industry saw no improvement, and producers restricted production rates to survive their margins in the year-end destocking period. Meanwhile, in the Asian Ethoxylates market, there was a tendency towards weakened demand, similar to the situation in the surfactant supply chain. Supplier stocks were elevated, leading to the availability of some lower-priced deals as the year-end approached. Due to these demand-related factors, profit margins for Nonyl Phenol players in the Asian market were being squeezed for December 2023.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Nonyl Phenol prices in the European market experienced a decline amidst slow downstream demand momentum. European traders and manufacturers were mainly concerned about reduced demand from the downstream surfactant industry, resulting in only modest price fluctuations despite worries about freight disruptions towards the end of the quarter. The notable factor of extended transit times for imports was highlighted by a producer. Additionally, the ample availability of inventories had a negative impact on prices. Germany witnessed the most significant price changes, following a bearish trend for most of 2023. Efforts to reduce operating rates as a strategy to protect profit margins for producers and traders proved ineffective, given the competitive pressures from the import market. Despite production cutbacks, Nonyl Phenol supplies continued to face challenges due to low demand in Q4 of 2023. In conclusion, the Nonyl Phenol market in the region witnessed stable demand, and moderate to low supply. European downstream markets demonstrated stability in purchasing confidence with a slight decline compared to the previous quarter weighing on the supply-related price change factors.
