For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, N-methyl aniline prices in the U.S. market experienced volatility, driven by disruptions in the petroleum industry and global oil supply dynamics. As a key component in fuel additives, N-Methyl Aniline's demand is closely tied to the fluctuations within the petroleum sector. Throughout Q3, supply chain disruptions, primarily caused by reduced oil production due to hurricanes and maintenance activities, influenced the pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline.
Oil production declines, particularly within OPEC, led to a constrained supply of petroleum products, directly impacting demand for fuel additives such as N-Methyl Aniline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a 0.7% reduction in global oil production, with OPEC output dropping by 650,000 barrels per day (bpd).
This tightening in the oil market indirectly affected N-Methyl Aniline availability, contributing to price stability despite weakening demand in the downstream petroleum industry. While the market saw reduced activity due to lower production rates, maintenance activities in non-OPEC regions, along with seasonal influences, led to moderate price increases for N-Methyl Aniline.
Asia
In the quarter ending September 2024, the APAC region witnessed stable prices for N-methyl aniline, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. The regional market was influenced by various factors, including stable demand from the petroleum sector, limited supplies, and fluctuating import costs. Additionally, disruptions such as port congestion and labor strikes impacted the supply chain, adding pressure on prices. The overall trend in the region showed consistency, with minor fluctuations in pricing. Seasonal factors like the festive season and winter demand played a role in price movements, while correlations with global oil prices and economic activities influenced market dynamics. Despite a 5.2% increase from the previous quarter, the pricing environment remained stable throughout Q3 2024. Notable disruptions during the quarter included port congestion and labor strikes, affecting supply chains, such as Mundra Port congestion, and Port and dock workers' hunger strikes. The quarter ended with a price of USD 2712/MT of n-Methyl Aniline CFR JNPT in India, reflecting a stable pricing environment overall during the third quarter of 2024.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 was a period of significant price increases for N-methyl Aniline in the European region, driven by a combination of factors. Market dynamics were largely influenced by stabilized demand from downstream industries such as the Petroleum industry, along with supply chain disruptions and reduced production rates across the region. These challenges created a supply shortage, pushing prices upwards. The Netherlands experienced the most substantial price changes during this period, reflecting the overall trend in the European market. The euro area’s manufacturing sector contracted further at the close of the third quarter. Moreover, global refining margins are narrowing, signaling a decrease in profitability for converting crude oil into petroleum products. This decline is primarily attributed to relatively weak demand for petroleum products, even as global refining capacity continues to expand, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The oversupply of refined products, combined with sluggish demand, has put downward pressure on margins across the N-methyl Aniline market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the N-methyl Aniline market in North America demonstrated notable stability, particularly in the latter half of the quarter, influenced by several significant factors shaping its pricing landscape. During this period, balanced demand and supply chains played a crucial role in maintaining price stability. The petroleum industry, a key downstream sector, exhibited moderate demand, contributing to the equilibrium in N-methyl Aniline pricing. Expected seasonal fluctuations, such as the Atlantic hurricane season, led downstream market participants to adopt cautious procurement strategies, ensuring their stockpiles were sufficiently padded against potential disruptions.
In the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price activities during this period, N-methyl Aniline prices remained fundamentally stable. This reflected a stable sentiment in the N-methyl Aniline market, indicating neither positive nor negative volatility but rather an equilibrium maintained by balanced supply-demand dynamics and prudent inventory management.
Hurricane Beryl halted industrial production in the USA in June 2024, and floods further disrupted downstream demand in the petroleum industry. Imports of US-origin N-methyl Aniline gained traction in the North American market, with US producers maintaining strong pricing due to reduced domestic supplies and high local prices during this quarter.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the N-methyl aniline market in the APAC region exhibited an upward trend in pricing, driven by a blend of critical factors. The overall market sentiment was notably positive, underpinned by increased demand from the downstream petroleum and textile sectors. The surge in prices was further exacerbated by limited stock availability and escalating freight and raw material costs. The geopolitical tensions in key exporting regions and erratic weather conditions also contributed to the price hikes, as these factors disrupted regular supply chains and inflated operational costs. Compounded by high energy prices and input costs, these dynamics created a robust environment for price increases. In India, the N-methyl aniline market experienced the most significant price changes within the APAC region. The Indian market defied typical seasonal trends this monsoon season, with heightened demand from the petroleum and textile industries. The downstream demand recovery, combined with low inventory levels, drove prices higher. The correlation between supply constraints and demand resurgence was evident, as new export orders surged and the real estate sector hit a decade-high peak, further bolstering demand. The overall pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline in Q2 2024 has been resulted as positive, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 2634/MT CFR JNPT in India. This sustained increase, coupled with strategic supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors, underscores the bullish market conditions prevalent throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the n-methyl Aniline market in Europe exhibited a persistent yet moderate upward trend, largely influenced by a combination of supply constraints, heightened production costs, and fluctuating feedstock prices. The prevailing disruptions in supply chains, coupled with strategic production cutbacks by the manufacturers, have exacerbated the scarcity of the material. Additionally, increased operational expenses and stable demand from the petroleum sector have collectively driven the n-methyl Aniline pricing environment upward. Focusing on Germany, the market has experienced the most pronounced price changes within the region. The seasonality factor played a crucial role, with increased demand from the Petroleum sector, consistent with typical seasonal cycles. This incremental yet consistent rise is reflective of a balanced market condition, where slight demand improvements are met with constrained supply, fostering a stable to positive pricing environment. Concluding Q2 2024, the prices of n-methyl Aniline, marked a steady culmination of the quarter’s upward trend and affirmed the positive pricing momentum despite underlying volatility. Additionally, port operations were affected by a workers’ strike impacting ports such as Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Brake, and Emden in June 2024. The dispute over the collective agreement has led to strikes at German container ports and halted activities at the Port of Hamburg for two days before a fourth round of negotiations began. The strikes later affected Wilhelmshaven, Bremen, and Emden, causing operational disruptions at container terminals. A prolonged strike could delay operations at Hamburg and Bremerhaven ports in August, severely impacting German exports, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the North American N-Methyl Aniline market sustained an upward price trajectory. The market remained bullish with limited inventories and moderate demand. However, the industry encountered challenges such as disruptions in logistics and rising freight rates due to ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea region.
Potential disruptions to shipping supply routes through Baltimore were partly mitigated by additional storage capacity in nearby areas like Philadelphia. Nonetheless, even minor logistical challenges could impact pricing in the region. The closure of the Port of Baltimore coincided with increased production rates in Europe, potentially resulting in surplus N-Methyl Aniline that could be sold to the US East Coast.
Concerns persisted about low inventory levels in northeastern US tanks, although there was slight improvement recently, allowing for more consistent price increases compared to regions with better supply and logistics. This was primarily driven by constrained production volumes and increased demand from the downstream sector. Despite these challenges, no plant shutdowns were reported during the first quarter of 2024.
APAC
The pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was marked by various factors that influenced market prices. Overall, there was a positive trend in prices, with the most significant increase occurring in the Indian market. Limited supplies and stock shortages played a crucial role in driving up prices. Reduced production rates in major exporting countries led to low imports and limited availability of the product in India. Additionally, delays in cargo movement caused by the ongoing situation in the Red Sea further contributed to increased costs and tight stock availability. Demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the downstream manufacturing industry was moderate, with improved production rates driving growth in the Indian market. However, downstream orders were limited, leading to further price increases due to supply disruptions and low stock availability. Looking at the price trend, there was a significant surge in prices for N-Methyl Aniline in India during Q1 2024. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 2465/MT of N-Methyl Aniline CFR JNPT in India. This represented a positive change compared to the previous quarter and a significant increase from the same quarter last year. In conclusion, the pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was positive, with limited supplies and high demand driving up prices, particularly in the Indian market. The trend was stable, with prices increasing from the previous quarter and showing significant year-on-year growth.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European N-Methyl Aniline market faced significant challenges, including restricted supplies, due to weak downstream demand. Despite these disruptions, N-Methyl Aniline prices surged in the German market due to increased downstream petroleum industry demand. The downstream Petroleum and agrochemical industry showed signs of recovery, driven by anticipated global demand increases, though challenges arose from projected decreases in Russian exports to the European Union due to trade sanctions. However, the U.S industry continued to grow despite a slowdown in GDP, highlighting complex global economic dynamics. The resurgence of consumption in Europe played a key role in the industrial revival. Consequently, N-Methyl Aniline prices reflected positive indications of recovery in downstream orders, while challenges such as disruptions in logistics and the need to reroute paths due to turmoil in the Red Sea persisted in the German market. Overall, the quarter underscored the interconnectedness of global economic factors impacting the N-Methyl Aniline market in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, n-methyl Aniline prices were relatively stable in the North American region. Meanwhile, the American n-Methyl Aniline market situation remained balanced during December 2023, and prices experienced stagnancy, with no marked shift in the purchasing sentiments from the downstream Fertilizer industry.
N-Methyl Aniline buyers had paused purchasing activities in anticipation of further discounts in the prices as the downstream market faced challenges due to various factors, including logistics and hampered production rates. According to the analysis, the export prices for US n-Methyl Aniline showed no variation in the middle of December and were also likely to be influenced by the uncertain downstream market dynamics in January 2024.
From the supply perspective, globally, freight markets had experienced elevated demurrage costs and extended transit voyage times due to congestion in major international waterways in the preceding months. The crucial Panama Canal route had been affected by low water levels, leading to restrictions on vessel hull drafts and reduced transit volumes throughout the quarter ending December 2023.
APAC
The APAC region experienced a mixed quarter for n-methyl Aniline pricing in Q4 2023. While some countries saw stability in prices, others faced downward pressure due to weak demand and abundant stocks. One of the primary factors affecting the market was the limited supplied market, which led to price increases in some regions. Additionally, the slow increase in downstream demand in certain countries, such as India, contributed to stable prices. However, the overall market sentiment remained cautious, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach. There were no reported plant shutdowns during this quarter. In Asia, the prices of n-methyl Aniline remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter, as the market saw a slow increase in domestic demand in the fertilizer industry. The regional market experienced a balanced market situation, with moderate to high demand. Looking ahead, stability in the downstream demand and potential restocking activities are expected to influence the price trend in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, supplier stocks were elevated, leading to the availability of some lower-priced deals as the year-end approached in November 2023. Due to these demand-related factors, profit margins for Nonyl Phenol players in the Asian market were being squeezed for December 2023 as well.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, n-Methyl Aniline prices in the European market experienced a decline amid sluggish downstream demand momentum. European traders and manufacturers were primarily concerned about reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer industry, resulting in only modest price fluctuations despite concerns about freight disruptions towards the end of the quarter. The notable factor of extended transit times for imports was highlighted by a producer. Additionally, the ample availability of inventories had negatively impacted the n-methyl Aniline prices. Germany witnessed the most significant price changes, following a bearish trend for most of 2023. Efforts to reduce operating rates as a strategy to protect profit margins for producers and traders proved ineffective, given the competitive pressures from the import market. Despite production cutbacks, n-methyl Aniline supplies continued to face challenges due to low demand in Q4 of 2023. In conclusion, the n-Methyl Aniline market in the region witnessed stable demand, and moderate to low supply. European downstream markets demonstrated stability in purchasing confidence with a slight decline compared to the previous quarter weighing on the supply-related price change factors.
