For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) prices in the North America region experienced a significant decline, driven by various factors. The market witnessed a substantial decrease from the same quarter last year, reflecting a challenging pricing environment. In the context of Q3 2024, the region saw a further 3% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a continued downward trend. The first and second half of the quarter also showed a notable decline in prices, emphasizing the sustained negative trajectory.
In the USA, where the most significant price changes were observed, MTBE prices plummeted to USD 910/MT FOB USGC by the end of the quarter. This decline was influenced by factors such as weak demand from downstream industries, oversupply in the market, and reduced consumption in the gasoline sector. Additionally, fluctuations in crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions added pressure to the pricing environment. Overall, the pricing environment for MTBE in Q3 2024 has been predominantly negative, characterized by a continuous decline in prices and challenging market conditions.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, the Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market in the APAC region experienced a significant decline in prices, with Singapore displaying the most notable changes. The market sentiment was predominantly negative, influenced by several key factors. Supply dynamics played a crucial role as the market grappled with oversupply issues, leading to downward pressure on prices. Decreased demand from the gasoline sector further exacerbated the price decline, as weak consumer interest and subdued market activity persisted. Additionally, global economic uncertainties and fluctuating crude oil prices contributed to the overall bearish trend in the MTBE market.
Singapore saw substantial price changes, reflecting the broader regional trend. The quarter recorded a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, highlighting the prolonged downward trajectory. Quarter-on-quarter, prices decreased by 3%, and with the second half of the quarter experiencing a drop compared to the first half. The quarter-ending price of USD 755/MT FOB Jurong in Singapore underscored the prevailing negative pricing environment for MTBE in the APAC region.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) market continued to witness low trading activity and falling prices. This decline was primarily attributed to an oversupply in the market and limited consumption from downstream sectors.
Although there were efforts to stimulate demand by lowering prices, the market struggled to find a balance between supply and demand. Traders exhibited reduced enthusiasm for bulk trading in the region, reflecting a prevailing sense of weakness in market sentiment.
The overall market conditions were characterized by a surplus of supply and a subdued appetite for purchases, which further exerted downward pressure on prices. These circumstances highlight the ongoing difficulties in the European MTBE market, where attempts to drive demand have proven insufficient amidst an oversupplied market and lacklustre downstream consumption.
MEA
Throughout Q3 2024, the Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market in the MEA region experienced a notable decline in prices, with Saudi Arabia showcasing the most significant changes. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including weakened demand from the gasoline sector, reduced consumption due to shifting energy preferences, and lower urgency for MTBE purchases amidst a transition to alternative energy sources.
Additionally, increased natural gas production and robust gasoline output added to the supply-side pressure, further dampening market prices. The quarter saw a substantial -21% decrease from the same period last year, reflecting long-term pricing challenges.
Comparing to the previous quarter in 2024, the region recorded a 5% decline, with a notable 7% difference between the first and second halves of the quarter. Ultimately, the quarter ended with a price of USD 880/MT of MTBE FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia, indicating a persistently negative pricing environment characterized by declining trends and subdued market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market in North America experienced a consistent decline in prices, driven predominantly by subdued demand from the gasoline sector and a reduction in production costs. Several macroeconomic factors influenced this downward pricing trend. The overall weakening of market demand and heightened inventories pressured suppliers to lower prices. Additionally, fluctuations in international crude oil prices added complexity to cost dynamics, with oil prices exhibiting a stagnant and apprehensive performance. The easing of geopolitical tensions further alleviated any potential risk premiums on crude oil, impacting MTBE costs indirectly.
Focusing on the USA, the region saw the most significant price changes. The overall trend for MTBE pricing was negative, reflecting a 12% decrease compared to the same quarter last year and a 4% drop from the previous quarter in 2024. Seasonality played a role as well, with the summer driving season traditionally boosting gasoline demand; however, this year saw a muted impact. The first half of the quarter experienced a 5% higher price than the latter half, reinforcing the declining sentiment.
The latest quarter-ending price for MTBE underscored the negative pricing environment. This decline can be attributed to high inventories, low purchasing activities, and cautious downstream enterprises. Despite some periods of stability, the overall market sentiment remained bearish, with limited signs of demand rebound.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market in the APAC region experienced considerable price reductions, driven by a confluence of market dynamics. Key factors influencing the declining prices included ample product inventories, subdued demand from downstream sectors, and weakening crude oil prices. The global economic outlook remained tepid, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment. Additionally, intermittent production cutbacks and operational inefficiencies within major MTBE-producing facilities contributed to an oversupply scenario, pressuring prices downward. Focusing on China, the country witnessed the most pronounced price fluctuations in the region. Throughout the quarter, the Chinese MTBE market was characterized by weak demand from the gasoline sector, a primary consumer of MTBE, coupled with a cautious approach from refineries toward restocking at higher price levels. Seasonal maintenance shutdowns in some production units also played a role in maintaining high inventory levels, suppressing prices. The overall trend was one of steady decline, with market participants anticipating a bearish outlook due to the persistent supply-demand imbalance. Compared to the same quarter last year, MTBE prices in China saw a significant decline of 14%, illustrating the stark contrast in market conditions. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices decreased by 5%, indicating a gradual but consistent downward trend. Additionally, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter noted a 4% decrease, further emphasizing the negative sentiment that pervaded the market. This persistent decrease underscores a negative pricing sentiment throughout the quarter, driven predominantly by excessive supply and lacklustre demand fundamentals.
MEA
In Q2 2024, Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) pricing in the MEA region experienced a nuanced trajectory influenced by a confluence of significant factors. The quarter was marked by fluctuating crude oil prices, logistical constraints, and varying demand from the gasoline sector. The commitment of major oil-producing nations to production cuts, coupled with heightened market anticipation of interest rate adjustments, contributed to an initial uptick in international oil prices. However, the overall MTBE market remained bearish due to ample supply and moderated trading activity, despite sporadic increases in crude prices. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the region witnessed the most pronounced price changes. The overall trend in Saudi Arabia's MTBE market was relatively stable, with only a minimal percentage change from the previous quarter, recorded at 0%. The price comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter noted a slight increase of 1%. This stability is attributed to persistent high inventories, cautious downstream operations, and a balanced supply-demand dynamic. Despite these challenges, the prices remained firm. Moreover, when compared to the same quarter last year, there was an 11% decline in prices, reflecting a less robust pricing environment. Seasonality played a significant role, with the early peak season and capacity constraints due to Red Sea diversions further tightening supply chains, thereby influencing MTBE prices. The pricing environment in Saudi Arabia, while stable on a quarter-to-quarter basis, demonstrated a consistent increasing sentiment driven by complex market dynamics, although the overall annual performance indicates a negative trend.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European market for Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) experienced subdued trading activity and declining prices. This was primarily due to an oversupply situation and limited consumption from downstream sectors. Despite efforts to stimulate demand through lower costs, the market faced significant challenges in balancing supply and demand.
Traders showed diminishing enthusiasm for bulk trading ventures within the region, reflecting a weak market sentiment. The overall market dynamics were characterized by ample supply and a lacklustre buying appetite, which further contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
These conditions highlight the ongoing difficulties in the European MTBE market, with efforts to boost demand proving insufficient against the backdrop of an oversupplied market and weak downstream consumption.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market in North America experienced a downward trend in prices. Several factors contributed to this decline. Weak demand and surplus supply were major factors that influenced market prices.
The decreased trading activity and limited buying interest from downstream purchasers led to a decrease in prices. Additionally, the weak Methanol demand and deteriorating market sentiments further impacted the MTBE market. In the USA, the price of MTBE saw significant decreases throughout the quarter. The overall trend in prices was negative, with a decrease of 24% compared to the previous quarter.
The price change from the same quarter last year was also negative, with a decline of 3%. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a decrease of 12%. The quarter-ending price of MTBE in the USA was recorded at USD 1075/MT FOB USGC. This price reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market. Overall, the pricing environment for MTBE in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices experiencing significant declines. Weak demand, surplus supply, and deteriorating market sentiments were the key factors influencing the downward trend in prices.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a downward trend in Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) pricing in the APAC region. Several factors have influenced market prices, leading to a decrease in overall prices. The market has experienced a negative sentiment due to weak demand and oversupply. The reduced purchasing activity and sluggish market conditions have contributed to the declining prices of MTBE. Additionally, the decreased availability of export offers, and low trading volumes have further impacted on the market dynamics. China, in particular, has witnessed the maximum price changes in the APAC region. The overall trend in China has been negative, with prices declining by 2% compared to the same quarter last year. Furthermore, there has been a significant decrease of 16% in prices from the previous quarter in 2024. However, there has been a slight improvement in the second half of the quarter, with prices increasing by 8% compared to the first half. As of the end of the quarter, the price of MTBE in China stands at USD 925/MT EX Jiangsu. The pricing environment in the APAC region for MTBE has been predominantly negative, with decreasing prices and a bearish sentiment prevailing.
Europe
In the European market for Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether (MTBE), the landscape witnessed a notable shift characterized by subdued trading activity and waning buyer interest amid a weak MTBE market. Traders displayed diminishing enthusiasm for bulk trading ventures within the region, spurred by low buying appetite and lackluster market conditions. Throughout January, the spot price of MTBE experienced a decline, lacking adequate cost support, thus dampening market sentiments. During this quarter, the region did not experience any significant inventory pressure, and product availability remained sufficient. One notable trend observed was the ample supply of MTBE within the region, driven by surging production rates and low operating prices among manufacturing units. This resulted in an oversupply of products, contributing to the prevailing market dynamics. Despite the sufficient supply, demand for MTBE from downstream fuel additives experienced a sharp decline, particularly in the context of limited consumption from gasoline blending activities. Overall, the European MTBE market during this period was characterized by subdued trading activity, declining prices, and ample supply. Despite efforts to stimulate demand through lower costs, the oversupply situation and limited consumption from downstream sectors posed significant challenges to market dynamics.
MEA
The Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a mixed pricing environment in the first quarter of 2024. Overall, market sentiment was negative, with prices fluctuating and influenced by various factors. In Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the region, MTBE prices saw weak market trading fundamentals. Prices started the quarter at USD 1000/MT and experienced a decline of 2.5% to USD 975/MT in February. However, prices rebounded in March, increasing by 5% to USD 1030/MT. These price changes were mainly driven by a decline in feedstock crude oil prices, subdued buying interest, and reduced export offers to international suppliers. The market dynamics in Saudi Arabia were also influenced by a lull in the Gasoline blending market downstream, resulting in a decline in demand for MTBE. Furthermore, the region witnessed low inventories and cautious operating downstream enterprises, which further impacted the price trend. Compared to the same quarter last year, MTBE prices in Saudi Arabia have seen an overall increase. However, in the first quarter of 2024, prices declined by 3.88% compared to the previous quarter. In terms of seasonality, the market experienced a decline in prices in February, which is in line with historical trends. However, prices rebounded in March, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In Q4 2023, feeble trading fundamentals and sufficient product availability in the region forced the producers to keep MTBE prices on the lower end. Slow market offtakes and weak trading activities also affected the profit margin and revenue of the major enterprises.
Since buyers have turned to low-priced materials as an alternative for margin protection, MTBE offers have reduced overall market levels and increased competitiveness in the regional marketplaces. In North American market, the price of MTBE declined to USD 928/ton FOB USGC during Dec 2023. Regarding the upstream market, the rise in finished oil stockpiles in the US was more than anticipated, particularly the spike in gasoline inventories, which made the market's pessimistic view of fuel demand even more pronounced.
Furthermore, contrary to market expectations, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have not strengthened their output restrictions. The price of oil has been pressured by the prospect of a loose supply. Local inventories remain adequate in the region and the supply of MTBE remains abundant.
APAC region
In Q4 2023, MTBE market in China remain weak mainly attributed by weak cost support from the upstream market and limited purchases from suppliers to buyers. Since buyers have turned to low-priced materials as an alternative for margin protection, MTBE offers have reduced overall market levels and increased competitiveness in the regional marketplaces. Recently, purchasers have favored purchasing Chinese materials since Chinese bids are significantly lower than those from other origins. International crude oil futures had shown a slightly negative trend in terms of gasoline demand, while the refined oil market has ceased increasing and declined. In order to encourage sales, some refineries have correctly lowered their pricing, while downstream retailers are making on-demand purchases while using up inventories. Completing large orders on the market is difficult. The MTBE market has received some mild assistance from the downturn in the gasoline market. In China, the price of MTBE declined to USD 968/ton FOB Dalian during Dec 2023. Manufacturers like Qingzhou Tian'an and Debao Road have seen varied degrees of reduced operating loads, which has led to a decline in output. On the supply side, facilities like Shenyang Waxing and Dongying Qifa are still closed.
Europe
Muted trading activities and no firmer bids and offers were served from the suppliers and distributors to the buyers, which capped the prices to increase further in Q4 2023. MTBE markets continued to follow a declining price trend this quarter as feeble costs, the spillover impact from European markets, and surging stock pressure on import sellers underpinned markets. Fueling the bearish scene were additional price low from the local producer, declined the price trend in Germany. As we look at market fundamentals, trading fundamentals are hit doubly hard this time because we’ve seen a fall-off in economic activities coupled with one of the most aggressive de-inventorying phases. Market players remain hesitant to increase the product prices in fear of a decline in sales and revenue among the significant production units. The fundamentals of MTBE demand from the downstream Gasoline market remain weak, notwithstanding strong trade volume with the European region. Spain's suppliers have remained solid in their offerings as a result of feeble demand from import markets, continuous decline in the improvements in the country's domestic markets and slow market offtakes.
MEA
In Q4 2023, MTBE prices in Saudi Arabia witnessed a bearish price trend due to limited cost support from the upstream crude oil. While the refined oil market has ceased expanding and is now tumbling down, international crude oil has begun to demonstrate signs of weakness. In order to promote sales, some refineries have correctly lowered their pricing, while downstream retailers are making on-demand purchases while using up inventories. The supply of MTBE in the Saudi Arabian market remains adequate to fulfill the demand from the downstream enterprises. MTBE market faced challenges due to an imbalance in supply and demand, resulting in lower prices with limited cost support from the downstream Gasoline market. Current demand remains sluggish, particularly as the year-end approaches, leading to reduced purchases. Following significant losses caused by demand destruction in October, regional MTBE supply increased noticeably during the escalating war between Israel and Gaza. Domestic Middle Eastern markets maintained a low pace this month, while export prices fell owing to market liquidity, resulting in ample stocks. The supply of MTBE was abundant, and spot purchase activity declined as the price trend changed.
