For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Methanol market in North America witnessed a significant upward trajectory in prices, driven by a confluence of key factors. The region experienced a surge in Methanol prices due to tightening supply chains, heightened demand from downstream industries, and rising raw material costs.
Supply constraints stemming from plant shutdowns and disruptions in global supply chains contributed to the scarcity of Methanol, exerting upward pressure on prices. Moreover, robust demand from various sectors such as formaldehyde production and chemical manufacturing further fueled the price escalation.
Within the USA specifically, the market saw the most pronounced price changes, with a 38% increase from the same quarter last year. Notably, the quarter recorded an 8% price hike from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 4% price increase, highlighting consistent growth. The quarter culminated with Methanol Contract prices reaching USD 722/MT DEL Louisiana, underscoring the prevailing positive pricing environment in the USA market.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing Methanol prices across the APAC region, driven by a combination of factors influencing market dynamics. Demand remained steady from various downstream industries, such as formaldehyde and acetic acid production, while supply constraints and import volumes contributed to the price uptrend. Japan experienced the most significant price changes during this period, reflecting broader trends in the region. This positive outlook was further bolstered by a notable increase in demand from the formaldehyde and formalin sectors, which experienced significant growth due to the expansion of several production units. The quarter saw a notable 18% increase in Methanol prices compared to the same period last year, indicating a substantial shift in pricing dynamics. Additionally, there was a 7% price increase from the previous quarter in 2024, showcasing consistent upward momentum. The second half of the quarter recorded a 4% price increase compared to the first half, highlighting a sustained growth trajectory. Ultimately, the quarter-ending price of Methanol stood at USD 345/MT CFR Nagoya in Japan, reflecting the overall positive and increasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Methanol market in Europe experienced a notable uptick in prices, driven by various factors. Significant influences included a surge in demand from downstream industries, particularly in the formaldehyde and acetic acid sectors, leading to a tightening of supply levels. Additionally, rising energy costs and logistical challenges in shipping contributed to the overall bullish market sentiment. The Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, reflecting the broader trends in the region. The feedstock natural gas prices have increased in August 2024 as surge was primarily due to geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions at the Russian-Ukrainian border. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, with the quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% and a substantial 50% increase from the same quarter last year highlighting the market's positive trajectory. The second half of the quarter saw a 5% price increase compared to the first half, indicating sustained growth. The quarter concluded with Methanol priced at USD 366/MT FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands, reflecting a consistently increasing pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
MEA
The Methanol pricing landscape in the MEA region for Q3 2024 has been characterized by a notable uptrend, with several factors contributing to the price escalation. Various significant elements influenced market dynamics, including robust demand from key industries, supply chain disruptions, and elevated production costs. The quarter witnessed a 29% increase from the same period last year, indicating a substantial price surge driven by evolving market conditions. Notably, the previous quarter in 2024 saw a 6% price hike, reflecting a consistent upward trajectory. Within Saudi Arabia, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Methanol market displayed a clear trend of increasing prices. Market trends were influenced by seasonal patterns and correlations in price changes, with a distinct 5% difference observed between the first and second half of the quarter. Despite fluctuating conditions, the quarter concluded with Methanol Contract prices reaching USD 305/MT FOB Al Jubail. This consistent price growth underscores a positive pricing environment, highlighting stability and optimism in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Methanol pricing in North America has experienced significant upward momentum, driven by a confluence of market factors. The quarter was marked by heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly Formaldehyde and adhesives, coupled with restrained global supply due to production halts and logistical challenges during June 2024.
A pivotal factor was Methanex's strategic decision to increase Methanol prices, reflecting robust purchasing activity and higher contract agreements. This decision was substantiated by the announcement of supply disruptions, notably the idling of key production plants due to restricted gas supplies, which further strained the market.
Focusing on the USA, the Methanol market exhibited the most pronounced price changes. The overall trend was bullish, bolstered by seasonal increases in demand for construction materials and industrial applications. The interplay of high market fundamentals and consistent consumption patterns from the upstream coal market reinforced the price hike. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices surged by 25%, indicating a significant rebound and positive market sentiment. From the previous quarter in 2024, the prices recorded a 10% increase, underscoring the persistent upward trajectory of Methanol values. Ending Q2 2024, the Methanol price in the USA stood at USD 662/MT DEL Louisiana.
APAC
The Methanol market in the APAC region for Q2 2024 experienced notable fluctuations from bearishness toward bullishness. Aggressive spot offers and intense sales competition among regional sellers indicated an oversupplied market in April 2024, while the seasonal dip in demand, particularly due to the anticipated monsoon affecting industries like plywood and laminates, contributed to cautious buying behavior. Additionally, planned maintenance shutdowns of several chemical plants and the steady resumption of others created a volatile supply environment, further declining the market prices during May 2024. The quarter was marked by a complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics, high freight rates, and market sentiment. The rising transportation costs from the Middle East and fluctuating feedstock prices contributed significantly to higher imported Methanol prices across the region during June 2024. Japan, in particular, experienced the maximum price changes within the APAC region, reflecting a significant shift in its Methanol market. By the end of the quarter, Methanol prices in Japan reached USD 318/MT CFR Nagoya, reinforcing a positive pricing environment.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen methanol prices in the Europe region remain remarkably stable to bullish, influenced by several significant factors. Key among these was the balanced interplay between supply and demand, driven by ample inventories and cautious purchasing behaviors during April 2024. Data indicated that methanol supplies in key countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and France were sufficient to meet downstream demand. This comfortable supply situation allowed buyers to replenish their stocks without urgency, yet there was a notable hesitance to commit to large-volume purchases due to ongoing uncertainties in the market. This cautious approach from buyers stemmed from the prevailing market conditions, where the supply was adequate during May 2024. However, Methanol prices saw a remarkable 61% increase from the same quarter last year, driven primarily by post-pandemic recovery and subsequent demand resurgence. The high price in the feedstock market, particularly for thermal coal and natural gas, further contributed to a bullish price for Methanol amidst an increase in production cost during June 2024.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2024, the methanol market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a mixed market sentiment followed by a significant downtrend in prices. In April 2024, the Middle East sellers were mostly away due to the Eid holidays with limited deals concluded in that period which declined the trend. However, focusing on Saudi Arabia, which has seen the most pronounced changes, the overall methanol market exhibited an overall upward trend this quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, methanol prices in Saudi Arabia have declined by 2%. Nevertheless, when compared to the previous quarter of 2024, prices surged by 10%, revealing a robust recovery. This price escalation in June 2024 was largely attributable to various dynamic factors, including heightened freight rates to Southeast Asia and South Korea, robust bidding activities, and steady purchasing interest, particularly from India and Southeast Asian markets. Additionally, the methanol market has been influenced by global market disruptions, such as rising production costs driven by increased feedstock prices, including coal and natural gas. These elements collectively contributed to a bullish pricing environment, reflecting a positive trend in regional market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North America Methanol market experienced a surge in demand and price trends in Q1 2024. The elevated demand was driven by steady downstream demand and elevation in market purchases. Additionally, the delay in the start of Methanex Corporation's new plant in Louisiana dampened expectations of ample spot supply to South Korea and China.
However, spot Methanol prices still increased due to an increase in spot market purchases. The downstream derivative market, including Formic Acid and Formaldehyde, remained stable with moderate demand from end-users. The USA continued to dominate the Methanol market, with contract prices following a series of stability towards the mid quarter in the wake of consistent market trades from the US to other American countries. Several shutdowns in January 2024 impacted the North America Methanol market.
These included Praxair in Geismar, Louisiana; Pampa Fuels LLC in Pampa, Texas; LyondellBasell Industries BV in Deer Park, Texas; and OCI Beaumont in Beaumont, Texas. While these disruptions had a short-term impact on the market, Methanol prices in North America continued to increase. Overall, the North America Methanol market in Q1 2024 saw a strong demand, price surge, and temporary disruptions due to weather-related shutdowns.
Asia Pacific
The Methanol market in the APAC region continued to witness a fluctuating trend in the first quarter of 2024. Several factors, including limited supply, moderate demand, and currency fluctuations, contributed to this trend. The market also experienced multiple plant shutdowns, which further impacted its dynamics. One of the key factors affecting the market was the limited supply of Methanol. Several plants in the APAC region faced shutdowns, resulting in a decrease in overall availability. Among the countries affected, South Korea experienced a bullish trend due to strong market trading fundamentals and increase in demand from the downstream derivative market. The price trend for Methanol in the APAC region remained bullish, as there was a slight increase of 7% in prices during the first half of the quarter, overall demand remained healthy. The price of Methanol CFR Busan in South Korea at the end of the quarter was recorded at USD 342/MT.The fluctuating trend in the Methanol market is attributed to the combination of limited supply and moderate demand throughout the quarter. In addition, multiple disruptions, such as a short supply of natural gas resulting in a force majeure event in China, a plant trip causing a force majeure event in Malaysia, and a plant trip with short-term impact also in Malaysia, further impacted the market dynamics. In conclusion, the Methanol market in the APAC region continued to experience a fluctuating trend in Q1 2024. Limited supply, moderate demand, and currency fluctuations were the primary factors affecting the market. The market was also influenced by multiple plant shutdowns, which contributed to the fluctuating prices.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Methanol market in Europe faced several challenges. The demand from downstream sectors, especially in the Formaldehyde and MTBE industries, was sluggish. These industries are major consumers of Methanol, and the reduced demand worsened the already difficult market conditions. Additionally, high inventories and weak trading environments further contributed to the decline in prices. Among European countries, France experienced the most significant changes in Methanol prices. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the Methanol FD Le Havre price dropped by 39%. The price trend for Methanol in France was influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. While the sluggish demand in the regional market and low purchasing activities pulled the prices down. Moreover, sufficient product availability also contributed to the decline in prices. Overall, the market situation remained moderate, with an adequate to moderate supply and low to moderate demand. There were no plant shutdowns observed during the quarter. The quarter concluded with the Methanol FD Le Havre price at USD 337/MT in France.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Methanol pricing dynamics in the MEA region were influenced by a range of factors. Overall, the market situation in Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the price fluctuations, with the country experiencing pronounced changes. The pricing trend in the region was influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, plant shutdowns, and market sentiment. In terms of supply, the Middle East saw low levels, with supply constraints due to crippling product availability. In terms of demand, the market experienced of high demand from downstream derivative markets such as Formic Acid and Formaldehyde. Additionally, market sentiment and economic conditions in the region played a role in shaping the pricing dynamics. However, the Methanol Contract FOB Al Jubail price in Saudi Arabia for March 2024 was USD 290/MT. In March 2024, Saudi Arabia witnessed a notable supply crunch, exacerbating the constrained supply already experienced in major importing regions, particularly India and China. This scarcity was further compounded by increased production costs within the vicinity, contributing to a challenging operating environment for methanol producers.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Methanol market in Q4 2023 remained healthy with elevation in market situations and elevated demand from downstream derivative businesses. The market dynamics were affected by strong market sentiments, low-level inventories, and high trading fundamentals in the region.
The price trend was robust due to inadequate product stocks and an increase in spot market purchases. The increase in production cost, strong upstream market, and elevation in demand from the downstream markets affected the price trend. The USA experienced a surge in contract Methanol prices due to low-level inventories and high market fundamentals. The price trend was steady due to tepid market fundamentals and moderate purchasing activities.
The price of Methanol DEL Louisiana in the USA for Q4 2023 was USD 575/MT during Dec 2023. The Methanol market in the USA was stable with moderate demand and sufficient product inventories. The Methanol pricing in the North American region was affected by limited supplies and strong market sentiments of the product. Methanex, a supplier, distributor of Methanol raised their non discounted quotations of Methanol for US market after understanding the consumption of Methanol from its downstream derivative market.
Asia Pacific region
The APAC Methanol market witnessed a bullish trend in Q4 2023 due to low supply and strong demand from downstream derivative enterprises, resulting in a elevation in prices. Nevertheless, the market showed signs of recovery throughout the quarter, driven by a rise in market trades and demand recovery in Q4 2023.
South Korea was the most affected country in the region, with a 3.0% increase in Methanol prices in Dec. The increase was due to healthy acetic acid and formaldehyde requirements, low inventories, and higher trading in the regional market. The price trend was also affected by the low availability of the product in the region, which increased the demand and led to a surge in bulk trading.
The price trend for Methanol in South Korea decreased by 18% compared to the same quarter last year, while it increased by 17% compared to the previous quarter. The quarter ending price of Methanol CFR Busan in South Korea was USD 319/MT during Dec 2023.
Europe
The current quarter of 2023 (Q4) for Methanol in the European region was marked by a bearish market trend with weak demand fundamentals and inadequate supplier cost support. The sluggish market trend and weak cost support from the downstream derivative market caused a decline in new orders, leading to a decrease in manufacturers' quotes for the domestic market.
The negative market trend was accompanied by a lackluster demand recovery, which further plunged the prices. In the Netherlands, Methanol prices declined by 4.65% to USD 338/ton FD Rotterdam with weak demand fundamentals and dullness in demand recovery. The market situation in the Netherlands was sluggish with high supply, low demand, and sufficient Methanol supplies. However, the major driver of price decrease is continued to be the downstream industries' low rate of product consumption.
The price trend for Methanol in the Netherlands showed a correlation with the overall market trend, with a price percentage comparison of 17% between the first and second half of the quarter. The price change percentage from the current to the previous quarter was declined by 12%, while the percentage change from the last year same quarter was declined by 30%. The current quarter ending price of Methanol FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands is USD 338/MT in Dec 2023.
MEA
The Methanol market in the MEA region during Q4 2023 witnessed several significant factors that impacted prices. Firstly, there was a bearish market sentiment due to weaker demand fundamentals from downstream markets. The consumption of Methanol in the region remained low, leading to limited self-consumption and fewer exports. This imbalance in supply and demand exerted pressure on prices, resulting in a downward price trend.
Additionally, the challenging economic conditions and liquidity issues in the region further dampened market activity and purchasing power. In Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the region, Methanol prices remained on the lower end due to limited exports and sluggish domestic demand. The suppliers were not willing to negotiate price discounts on bulk purchases, reflecting the weak market sentiment.
The country experienced a decline in Methanol prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a percentage change of -27%. Furthermore, there was a decrease in prices from the previous quarter, with a percentage change of -6%. Although no plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter, the market was primarily influenced by the imbalance between supply and demand. The oversupply of Methanol and slow market offtakes contributed to the bearish market situation. The latest price of Methanol Contract FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia for the current quarter is USD 227/MT during Q4 2023.
