For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Melatonin market in North America showcased moderate stability during Q3 2024, with the United States retaining its status as the primary trading hub. Price levels followed a gradual downward trajectory, declining from $86000/MT to $81960/MT FOB New York from July to September 2024. This quarter's softening prices contrasted with the previous quarter's continued depreciation, as market gained momentum in the later in the quarter. The modest price depreciation reflected subtle shifts in industry dynamics amid steady broader economic indicators.
Despite the slight price erosion, consumption patterns from domestic nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained dependable, while efficient logistics management helped maintain supply-side balance. The market demonstrated resilience amid persistent operational challenges, including maritime congestion, shipping costs, and distribution network intricacies. The gentle price decline was partially influenced by competitive pricing in China's market, a key Melatonin supplier, creating a ripple effect across the American nutraceutical sector.
The measured price depreciation, occurring gradually across the quarter, indicates evolving market fundamentals while maintaining underlying stability. This trend aligns with broader regional patterns, showcasing the North American Melatonin market's ability to adapt despite ongoing supply chain complexities. The delicate balance between regional demand, global supply dynamics, and logistical factors has fostered a nuanced yet stable pricing environment.
APAC
The Melatonin market in Asia-Pacific displayed a slight downward pricing trend in Q3 2024, characterized by measured market adjustments. China's market experienced modest price softening quarter-over-quarter, while maintaining its position as the regional price benchmark. The market witnessed a gentle decline in price levels, with export values easing from $77700/MT to $73025/MT FOB Shanghai between July and September 2024.
This controlled price depreciation reflected well-managed operational factors and steady market fundamentals. Demand patterns maintained consistent procurement from nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries, both domestic and international, while supply elements remained abundant despite ongoing production costs and operational considerations. The interaction between production capacity and logistical frameworks facilitated a controlled market adjustment throughout the quarter.
Market stability, despite the price softening, was evident through steady buyer engagement and predictable order patterns. These consistent demand indicators, combined with efficient operational management including freight expenses and supply chain processes, allowed industry participants to maintain workable margins. China's domestic market continued to guide regional price trends, balancing international procurement patterns with domestic consumption dynamics. The coordination between production capabilities and logistical frameworks supported a controlled market adjustment.
Europe
The European Melatonin landscape experienced a gentle price decline mimicking the Asian markets during Q3 2024, with Germany's market dynamics serving as the key regional indicator. The quarterly performance showed consistent but slightly decreasing price levels between the first and second half, maintaining overall market balance. Despite historical volatility, the market demonstrated controlled adjustment with steady quarterly performance.
The measured price depreciation stemmed from well-managed supply capabilities and steady demand patterns amid high inventory levels. Manufacturing processes, particularly in Asian production centers, maintained optimal output levels influencing the gradual price adjustment in Germany. This was supported by reliable demand from pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors maintaining predictable procurement activities.
Germany's market trends continued to provide a benchmark for European pricing patterns, exhibiting consistent seasonal performance despite the modest price softening. Through operational challenges, the market maintained its fundamental equilibrium, underlining the European Melatonin market's inherent stability. The balance between supply capabilities, sectoral demand patterns, and regional market forces fostered a slightly declining but stable pricing environment, characterized by measured adjustment and market equilibrium across Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 has been marked by a notable decline in Melatonin prices across the North American region, driven by several intricate market dynamics. Supply chain disruptions and a decrease in demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals have played significant roles in this downward trend. Additionally, a surplus of inventory and increased price competition from Asian producers have further exerted pressure on prices.
In the USA, which has experienced the most substantial price fluctuations, the overall trend has been consistently negative. Seasonal factors and the interplay of supply and demand have resulted in a complex pricing environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, Melatonin prices have plummeted by 20%, reflecting a stark contrast with the previous quarter of 2024, which saw an 8% decrease.
The quarter-ending price settled at USD 90,000 per metric ton of Melatonin FOB New York, underscoring the ongoing depressive sentiment in the market. The pricing environment has been predominantly negative, influenced by abundant supply, diminishing demand, and import challenges. Overall, the second quarter of 2024 has underscored a challenging landscape for Melatonin prices in North America, particularly in the USA, with a consistent downward trajectory driven by multifaceted market factors.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a notable decline in Melatonin prices across the APAC region, driven by several critical factors. Market oversupply, coupled with subdued demand from both domestic and international end-users, has exerted downward pressure on prices. The Red Sea crisis has exacerbated shipping costs, disrupting purchasing strategies and intensifying cautious market sentiment. Consequently, producers have been compelled to lower prices to manage their inventories effectively. The increased production amidst declining demand has deepened the oversupply scenario, further pushing prices down.
Focusing on China, the region that experienced the most significant price changes, the overall trend in Melatonin pricing has been distinctly negative. Seasonality and fluctuating international demand have played pivotal roles in shaping this trend. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices saw a modest decrease of 1%, reflecting the sustained bearish market sentiment. A comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter reveals a further price reduction of 3%, underscoring the persistent downward trajectory. The quarter ended with Melatonin priced at USD 80,000 per metric ton FOB Qingdao, highlighting the ongoing deflationary pressure.
In summary, the pricing environment for Melatonin in the APAC region during Q2 2024 has been predominantly negative, influenced by an oversupply situation, increased logistical costs, and tepid demand. The confluence of these factors has resulted in a consistent decline in prices, with China seeing the most pronounced impact.
Europe
The Melatonin market in Europe largely mirrored the dynamics of the Chinese domestic market in Q2 2024, experiencing a notable downtrend driven by several critical factors. The quarter was characterized by a confluence of declining demand from key sectors such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals, coupled with hampered supply chain conditions. The availability of Melatonin stockpiles, especially from major Asian exporters, led to competitive pricing pressures. Additionally, the easing of global trade disruptions and reduced freight costs this quarter contributed to the downward price adjustments. Economic factors, including a slight recovery in inflation and improved consumer confidence, partially offset the downward momentum but were not sufficient to reverse the overall trend.
Germany, the epicenter of the price volatility, saw a significant shift in its Melatonin market. Seasonal factors, such as reduced consumption during warmer months and ample inventory levels, exacerbated the price decrease. The pricing environment in Q2 2024 reflected a predominantly negative sentiment, driven by an overabundance of supply and stabilizing trade conditions, overshadowing any minor demand recovery.
This downturn was further influenced by the easing of supply chain bottlenecks that had previously constrained the market. As logistics improved and production capabilities expanded, the increased availability of Melatonin intensified competition among suppliers. The quarter also saw shifts in consumer behavior, with changing preferences and potentially reduced usage of sleep aids during the spring and early summer months contributing to the softer demand.
The market dynamics observed during this period had varying impacts across the industry. While challenging for Melatonin suppliers, the lower prices potentially benefited consumers and downstream industries relying on Melatonin as an input. However, the prolonged price pressure raised questions about its long-term impact on research and development investments in the Melatonin sector.
Overall, Q2 2024 marked a period of significant adjustment in the European Melatonin market, with the interplay of supply, demand, and broader economic factors resulting in a notably bearish quarter for the industry.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Melatonin market in North America experienced a significant decline. This downward trend in pricing was driven by multiple factors, leading to an overall decrease in price trends. The USA witnessed pronounced fluctuations in prices, with values declining considerably throughout the quarter. Specifically, the price of Melatonin supplements dropped from $109900/mt in January to $93560/mt FOB New Jersey by March, representing an approximate 15% decrease over the course. The market conditions were influenced by various factors, including fluctuating demand, abundant product availability, rising freight costs, and a reduction in imports from Asia. To address these challenges, U.S. authorities collaborated with industry stakeholders to enhance the real-time monitoring of freight movements, focusing particularly on nutraceutical shipments from China.
The conclusion of 2023 was characterized by disruptions in supply chains and trade due to security issues in the Red Sea, resulting in significant increases in freight charges. These disruptions affected trade routes, leading to congestion at U.S. ports and disruptions in the Panama Canal, thereby impacting commodity prices. During the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, shipments were temporarily suspended. Despite anticipating an increase in demand for nutraceuticals, including Melatonin, following the post-holiday market recovery in China, the expected uptick in the U.S. did not materialize as projected. Nevertheless, demand in the U.S. remained low throughout the quarter, supported by limited inquiries from local suppliers.
Furthermore, with excess of supply on hand, U.S. suppliers adjusted their price quotes and narrowed their profit margins in March. The additional price decline in March was driven by reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, coupled with declining freight charges. This reduced demand was further exacerbated by an oversupply of Melatonin from domestic sources, complicating the market dynamics.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Melatonin market in the APAC region remained relatively stable, characterized by stagnant pricing trends. The market exhibited resilience with steady demand from both domestic and international end-users in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. However, various challenges such as escalating freight costs, port congestions, and a decline in consumer confidence exerted pressure on the market dynamics.
In China, each subtype of Melatonin experienced distinct movements, prompting manufacturers to reassess their pricing strategies to capitalize on fluctuating global demand. The Chinese market grappled with issues including diminishing consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and reduced exports, contributing to a slowdown in market momentum.
An imbalance between supply and demand was observed, with reduced demand in January resulting in elevated inventory levels. Consequently, suppliers were compelled to significantly lower their price quotations. Specifically, Melatonin prices in China declined from $86400/mt in January to $85560/mt by March, illustrating the downward trajectory of pricing movements during the quarter. This decline underscores the challenges encountered by market participants in adapting to shifting demand dynamics and underscores the necessity for strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness in a volatile market environment. Despite some positive data indicators, caution is advised to investors due to hindered economic progress resulting from sluggish international trade, declining domestic investment, and escalating local government debt. These multiple disruptions in the market warrant careful consideration when evaluating investment opportunities.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Melatonin market in Europe, especially in Germany, displayed pricing trends that closely paralleled those observed in both the US and China, with prices declining consistently throughout the quarter.
The European economy grappled with various uncertainties during this period, including volatile energy costs and the implementation of interest rate hikes, which created a delicate market environment for Melatonin. These factors added complexity to efforts aimed at stabilizing prices within the region. Until mid-February, several elements influenced Melatonin prices in Germany. The rising import costs from China, exacerbated by disruptions in the Red Sea and the Chinese New Year celebrations, placed downward pressure on prices and resulted in reduced demand. Additionally, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, such as the depreciation of the Euro against the USD, further exacerbated the financial difficulties encountered by German importers.
In summary, the Melatonin market in Germany was influenced by a combination of factors, including inflationary pressures, federal taxes, supply chain disruptions, and escalating energy costs. These complex challenges contributed to the overall decline in Melatonin prices and created a challenging operational landscape for market participants in the region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American region experienced a notable decline in Melatonin prices, attributed to various factors. Firstly, the market faced instability and subdued demand, particularly from end-users in the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors. This low demand trend persisted throughout the quarter. Secondly, an oversupply of Melatonin coupled with reduced manufacturing output contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Lastly, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates for an extended period raised concerns about future consumer confidence in the country.
The United States witnessed the most significant fluctuations in Melatonin prices during the quarter. The trend and seasonality of Melatonin prices in the USA remained negative, showing a correlation price percentage of -4% compared to the same quarter the previous year. Despite positive indicators such as job growth and a decline in unemployment rates, rising interest rates and inflationary pressures dampened consumer sentiment, impacting the dietary supplement industry. Melatonin prices began the quarter at $130,400/MT and concluded at $122,340/MT FOB New Jersey, indicating an overall decline.
APAC:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Melatonin market in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated a downward trend. This declining trend was attributed to a market imbalance caused by reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries, particularly evident in November. In China, despite the increased production, the nation experienced notable price decreases attributed to sluggish demand both locally and globally. The decline in Melatonin demand in China's pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors was further indicated by the absence of fresh inquiries from overseas markets in the initial half of the quarter. From October to December, Melatonin prices in China declined from $91,700/MT to $88,140/MT FOB-Shanghai. In December, attention shifted to China's economy with improvements in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and increased consumer confidence, accompanied by a gradual price uptick. Throughout the year, China's nutraceutical market encountered mixed outcomes, with certain product categories experiencing declines while others showed signs of recovery. Due to the fact of the upcoming Chinese lunar new year, local suppliers started restocking their shelves with fresh supplies, resulting in enhanced industrial output and high prices, whose trend will be visible from the next month.
Europe:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, there was a mixed trend in the European Melatonin market. At first, the market had difficulties due to high levels of supply, which forced domestic companies to hold large amounts of inventory ahead of the December holiday season. In the first part of the quarter, price reductions were facilitated by a surplus supply of melatonin, a decrease in end-user demand, and an abundance of the substance on the domestic market. Even if there were not many changes in the fundamentals of the market, large inventories owned by domestic enterprises contributed to the decline in prices in Germany’s domestic market. China, a significant exporter, played a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics by reducing the price of Melatonin. Consequently, German importers benefited from lower prices when sourcing Melatonin supplements, leading to price decreases within the local market. Additionally, the absence of fresh inquiries from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals prompted local sellers to offer the product at relatively reduced prices. However, towards the latter part of the quarter, prices experienced subtle increases due to higher prices in China and increased demand in Germany. This shift in market conditions reflected evolving dynamics and demand patterns within the European Melatonin market.
