For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North America melamine market experienced significant fluctuations in pricing trends. After a dip in July, prices began to rise steadily through August and September, supported by strong cost pressures from feedstock urea and increasing energy prices. Compared to the same period in 2023, melamine prices fell by 7.1%, in the USA market while they also recorded a 12.3% decline from Q2 2024. Despite these year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter drops, the market displayed signs of recovery toward the end of Q3.
Key drivers of this recovery included supply chain disruptions caused by Hurricane Beryl, which tightened supply, and a gradual rebound in downstream demand from sectors such as laminates, coatings, and adhesives. These factors helped strengthen market sentiment. On the supply side, continued tightness added upward pressure on prices.
The USA, a crucial market player, saw significant price increases, with melamine prices reaching USD 1,675/MT FOB Texas by the close of the quarter, signaling the market's recovery after earlier challenges.
APAC
Throughout the Q3 2024, the melamine market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline in prices. Several key factors contributed to this downward trend. Weak demand from downstream sectors, such as laminate, coating, played a significant role in the pricing dynamics. Seasonal factors, such as heavy rainfall, further impacted the melamine market by hampering construction activities, which affected the downstream industries. Additionally, limited cost support from feedstocks urea further weakened market confidence. The market sentiment remained negative due to sluggish global demand, new capacity additions during the quarter. Oversupply in the market, coupled with the declining urea prices, contributed to the negative pricing environment. In China, the market experienced the most significant price changes, with factors such as further restrictions on fertilizer exports impacting urea prices and subsequently melamine prices. The overall trend in China reflected a 18% decrease from the same quarter last year, with a 7.3% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. As the quarter ended, the spot price of melamine in China stood at USD 815/MT FOB Qingdao, reflecting the bearish sentiment throughout Q3.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European melamine market experienced a shift in pricing trends, with notable fluctuations across the quarter. After a slight decline in July, prices began to rise steadily through August and September, driven by strong cost support from feedstock urea and rising energy prices. The quarter saw a 14.1% drop compared to the same period last year and a 7.6% decrease from Q2 2024. Despite these year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines, the melamine market showed signs of recovery toward the end of Q3. Key factors contributing to this upward trend included supply chain disruptions, tightening supply, and a gradual rebound in downstream demand, particularly from the laminates, coatings, and adhesives sectors. The flooding across central and eastern Europe, coupled with logistical challenges, further limited supply, adding pressure to prices. On the supply side, the melamine market continued to experience tightness. Germany, a key player in the market, witnessed significant price increases, with melamine prices reaching USD 1,553/MT FOB Hamburg by the end of the quarter.
South America
In Q3 2024, the South American region witnessed a notable decline in Melamine prices, primarily driven by high inventory levels and subdued demand from key downstream sectors such as laminates and coatings. The market was characterized by sluggish procurement activities, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm for fresh purchases amidst weak market sentiment. Additionally, factors like ample supply, low demand, and reduced momentum in end-use industries contributed to the bearish pricing environment. Brazil, experiencing the most significant price changes, saw a consistent downward trend throughout the quarter. However, the -11.7% change from the same quarter last year indicated a challenging market scenario, further exacerbated by the 9.9% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The second half of the quarter recorded a substantial drop in prices compared to the first half, underscoring the persistent downward pressure on Melamine prices. The quarter ending price of USD 1104/MT CFR Santos in Brazil marked the culmination of a consistently negative pricing trend, highlighting a challenging period for the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2 2024, the melamine market in North America experienced a pronounced decline, marked by consistent negative sentiment. Market dynamics were influenced by multiple factors, including subdued demand from downstream sectors, rising production costs, and ample inventory levels. The primary drivers for falling prices stemmed from reduced activity in downstream industries such as laminate, furniture, and coatings, which were adversely affected by economic uncertainties and rising interest rates. Additionally, fluctuations in feedstock urea prices, coupled with seasonal demand variations, further exacerbated the market downturn.
In the USA, the melamine market saw significant price volatility, with the most dramatic alterations recorded. The declining trend was underscored by a 9.2% drop compared from the previous quarter in 2024. This persistent downward movement culminated in the quarter ending with melamine prices at USD 1510/MT DEL Louisiana.
Overall, the pricing environment for melamine in the USA during Q2 2024 has been decidedly negative. The market's inability to recover from high inventory levels, coupled with weak demand and rising costs, has perpetuated a consistent decline in prices, reflecting an overarching bearish sentiment throughout the quarter.
APAC
In Q2 2024, Melamine prices in the APAC region witnessed significant fluctuations, driven by a myriad of factors that collectively influenced the market landscape. One of the primary reasons for this volatility was the subdued demand from downstream industries such as laminate and coatings, exacerbated by a slowdown in construction activities. Despite the Chinese market stabilizing post its earlier downturn, the overall market sentiment remained cautious due to persistent oversupply issues and reduced export orders. Additionally, fluctuating feedstock prices, particularly urea and natural gas, played a crucial role in shaping the production costs, thereby influencing the final prices of melamine. Focusing on South Korea, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the market exhibited a clear trend of declining prices. This was largely attributed to the severe downturn in the construction industry, which not only dampened demand for construction-related products like melamine but also resulted in excess supply and inventory pressures. The seasonality factor also contributed to this trend, with lower construction activity during certain periods exacerbating the market's bearish sentiment. From the same quarter last year, melamine prices in South Korea declined by 2.1%, while a 7.3% decrease was observed from the previous quarter in 2024. The quarter-ending price for melamine in South Korea stood at USD 909/MT FOB- Busan, underscoring a negative pricing environment.
South America
In Q2 2024, the South American melamine market faced a notable decline, marked by a consistently negative sentiment. Key factors influencing this downturn included weak demand from downstream sectors, such as laminate, furniture, and coatings, driven by economic uncertainties and rising interest rates. Additionally, low import prices and high inventory levels compounded the downward pressure on prices. Fluctuations in feedstock urea prices and seasonal demand variations further exacerbated the market's struggles. In Brazil, the melamine market experienced a significant price drop, with prices falling by 2% compared to the previous quarter and 2.1% year-over-year. This persistent decline led to a quarter-end price of USD 1445/MT CFR Santos.
Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for melamine in Brazil has been decidedly bearish. The market's inability to recover from elevated inventory levels, coupled with subdued demand and rising costs, has resulted in a sustained downward trend in prices, reflecting a broadly negative market sentiment. The lack of significant improvements in demand or pricing support underscores the challenges facing the market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the melamine market in Europe experienced a notable decrease in prices, driven primarily by a confluence of factors that exerted downward pressure on the market. Key influences included subdued demand from downstream industries, a surplus in supply, and lower production costs due to decreased natural gas prices. The macroeconomic environment was also a significant contributor, with rising interest rates, higher inflation, and overall economic stagnation curbing purchasing power and reducing construction activities, which are critical for melamine consumption.
Germany saw the most pronounced price changes within the region. The market trends in Germany highlighted a bearish sentiment, reflecting the broader European market dynamics. Seasonality played a role, with the second half of the quarter showing a sharper price decline compared to the first half, underscoring the persistent weakness in demand and high inventory levels. The price of melamine in Germany for Q2 2024 ended at USD 1333/MT FOB Hamburg, marking a significant 8.2% drop, compared to the previous quarter in 2024.
These figures underscore the consistent and steep downward trajectory of melamine prices. The overall pricing environment has been decidedly negative, with market participants navigating through a period of significant price erosion, driven by an imbalance between supply and demand and exacerbated by broader economic pressures.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North America, Melamine market experienced an overall increase in prices. Several factors influenced this upward trend, including strong demand from downstream industries, particularly in the construction sector. The surge in construction activity, driven by robust job growth and increased spending, led to heightened demand for melamine in applications such as laminate and wood adhesives. The stability of feedstock prices, such as urea, also contributed to the positive pricing environment.
Within the North American region, the USA witnessed the most significant price changes. The market saw a 39% increase in prices compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Additionally, there was a 5% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. These price fluctuations were largely driven by the strong demand from the construction industry and the stable supply of melamine. The latest quarter-ending price for melamine in the USA was recorded at USD 1968/MT DEL Louisiana. This price reflects the overall increasing sentiment in the market, with prices consistently on the rise throughout the quarter.
Overall, the pricing environment for melamine in the North American region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with strong demand and stable supply contributing to the upward trend in prices.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Melamine market in the APAC region experienced mixed pricing trends. Overall, the market was stable, with prices remaining relatively unchanged over the quarter. However, South Korea saw significant price changes compared to other countries in the region. Several factors influenced market prices during this period.
In China, the largest exporter of melamine, stable feedstock urea prices and consistent demand from downstream industries supported price stability. However, subdued demand from the construction sector and oversupply in the domestic market limited price increases. In India, melamine prices remained steady, supported by robust demand from the downstream laminate and automobile sectors. The government's focus on infrastructure and affordable housing projects contributed to a positive market sentiment. However, the market faced downward pressure due to increased competition from Chinese exports. South Korea experienced a bearish market sentiment, with melamine prices declining due to reduced demand from the construction industry. The downturn in the housing market and decreased contract values in the sector contributed to lower procurement activities and a slump in melamine prices.
Overall, the pricing environment for melamine in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was stable, with South Korea experiencing a negative trend. The correlation between melamine prices and factors such as feedstock prices, demand from downstream industries, and the overall economic outlook played a significant role in determining market dynamics. The quarter-ending price for melamine in South Korea was USD 933/MT FOB-Busan.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Europe Melamine market experienced an overall increase in prices. Prices have been influenced by various factors, including disruptions in the supply chain, reduced demand from domestic while the exports improve that keeps the price healthy, and fluctuations in feedstock prices. These factors have contributed to a bullish market sentiment, with prices experiencing an upward trend.
In Germany, the largest market for melamine, prices have seen significant changes. The ban on urea exports from China until April 2024 has led to disruptions in the supply chain, resulting in reduced availability and increased demand. This imbalance between supply and demand has intensified, driving melamine prices higher. Additionally, the reliance on Asian and US imports for raw materials, coupled with delays in shipping routes, has further exacerbated supply chain uncertainties. The demand for melamine in Germany has remained moderate, with some fluctuations due to disruptions in the urea feedstock supply chain. The surge in wood prices and increased demand for softwood lumber exports to India have helped support melamine prices in the domestic market. Further the shutdown of several melamine plants particularly in the exporting Asian region due to Lunar New Year holidays, disrupted the supply chain and caused the scarcity globally. To fill the gap Germany firms were Operating at higher run rates. The existing supply of melamine proved insufficient to meet the growing demand, resulting in a decrease in inventory levels.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for melamine in the Europe region, particularly in Germany, has been positive in the first quarter of 2024. Supply chain disruptions, increased demand, and higher feedstock prices have all contributed to higher prices. The latest quarter-ending price for melamine FOB-Hamburg in Germany is USD 1724/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In Q4FY23, Melamine prices in the North American market exhibited mixed sentiment, rising in October, declining in November and December. In October, the US market saw minor price fluctuations with a focus on sectors like coating, lamination, and other end-use industries. The construction industry showed moderate activity, and although there was an uptick in investment for certain structures, reduced spending in other areas offset growth.
Urea price variations impacted the US market. November witnessed an increase in US Melamine prices driven by expanding demand in the construction and lamination sectors. In December, Melamine prices in the US surged due to supply constraints and heightened demand from downstream industries, particularly in anticipation of Christmas and New Year festivities, stimulating robust demand.
The positive trend in the December PMI suggested sustained demand from various industrial segments, contributing to the upward price movement. The surge was linked to a supply-demand imbalance, with Melamine inventory levels dropping, exerting upward pressure on prices, while the feedstock Urea price remained moderate. The increased spending on home renovation projects and strong demand from the laminate and automobile sectors contributed to the overall rise in Melamine prices, reflecting market tightness. As of December, Melamine prices in USA were assessed at USD 1856/MT FOB-Texas.
APAC
In Q4FY23, Melamine prices in the South Korean market exhibited mixed sentiment. October and December saw a decline due to factors like reduced feedstock urea and lower natural gas prices, impacting orders from the manufacturing sector. Concerns arose from a significant drop in contracts in the civilian and public sectors, reflecting a challenging scenario in the South Korean construction industry, leading to reduced demand in the downstream laminate sector. Persistent challenges in the housing market marked a four-quarter reduction in contract values. Oversupply and ongoing destocking processes contributed to a downward price trend, intensified by decreased crude oil and feedstock urea prices. Manufacturers strategically engaged in destocking, reducing inventories. In November, Melamine prices rose due to increased feedstock (Urea) costs and disruptions in supply from China. Surging demand in the housing and automotive sectors, along with a sudden halt in feedstock urea shipments, created a supply constraint, driving prices higher. This surge was characterized by increased new orders, underlining the growing demand for Melamine in various industries. The imbalance between supply and demand, influenced by disruptions in feedstock shipments, contributed to supply chain issues and increased prices. The rise in Melamine prices was fueled by robust demand from the downstream automobile and laminate industry, creating a competitive market. As of December, Melamine prices in South Korea were assessed at USD 1034/MT FOB-Busan.
Europe
In Q4FY23, Melamine prices in the European market showed mixed sentiment. In October, German Melamine prices increased due to operational costs and a moderate demand outlook, influenced by ongoing challenges in Germany's real estate sector. The Association of German Pfandbrief Banks reported a 1.7% decline in property prices, impacting construction firms. In November, Melamine prices dropped amid weak demand, with the market reacting negatively to October's sales record, destocking inventories. The German market observed declining demand, reflected in reduced stock sizes and new orders, with traders showing pessimistic enthusiasm. December saw a decline in Melamine prices in Germany due to decreased feedstock urea and lower natural gas prices. The wood furniture market adversity and challenges in the German chemicals industry contributed to reduced orders, impacting melamine consumption. Manufacturing in Germany continued to contract in December, with a PMI indicating declines in output and employment further, Manufacturers strategically destocked, lowering inventories, exerting downward pressure on prices. Oversupply decreased crude oil and feedstock urea, and weakened procurement contributed to reduced production costs, prompting manufacturers to adjust prices. Diminished demand from the construction industry led to a market-wide reduction in melamine, mirroring weakened global demand, ultimately contributing to a decline in prices in Germany. As of December, Melamine prices in South Korea were assessed at USD 1539/MT FOB Hamburg.
South America
The Melamine market in South America during the fourth quarter of 2023 was influenced by several key factors. Firstly, there was an increase in import volumes, particularly from major exporters like China and the USA, which drove up prices in the region. Additionally, the Brazilian economy showed signs of improvement, with better-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter leading to an upward revision in the forecast for 2023. However, the market faced challenges such as reduced demand, declining exports, and higher production costs due to increased interest rates. In Brazil, which experienced the most significant price changes in the region, the market was characterized by moderate supply and demand levels. The construction, coating, and furnishing sectors showed excess supply, leading to a slowdown in demand. The increased import prices, driven by rising prices in exporting countries, further pushed up the prices of Melamine in Brazil. The trend for Melamine prices in Brazil during the fourth quarter of 2023 was bearish, with a price decrease of -35% compared to the previous quarter. The prices remained stable throughout the quarter, with no significant fluctuations observed. The price at the end of the quarter was USD 1143/MT CFR Santos in Brazil.
