For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American m-xylene market experienced a bearish trend, driven by muted demand and declining prices. Throughout August and September, m-xylene prices remained stable to lower, primarily due to weak consumption from the downstream phthalic anhydride industry, particularly within the construction sector.
Economic headwinds, including rising mortgage rates and sluggish construction spending, exacerbated the already soft demand, leading to average market conditions. This downward pressure was compounded by falling feedstock naphtha prices, which further reduced production costs for m-xylene. Supply levels were characterized as moderate, with domestic production operating at low rates amid deteriorating manufacturing conditions. However, potential supply disruptions loomed due to labor negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association and port operators, with strike threats potentially impacting supply chains.
Overall, while there were indications of stabilizing factors, including a decrease in inflation rates, these did not translate into increased demand for m-xylene. The market sentiment remained cautious, reflecting the complexities of a landscape shaped by external economic challenges and sluggish growth within key end-user sectors.
APAC
From July to September 2024, m-xylene prices in APAC remained generally stable to lower, as market dynamics were influenced by soft buyer interest, abundant supply, and limited feedstock cost support due to declines in naphtha prices. Crude oil showed volatility due to geopolitical tensions, further affecting market sentiment. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream phthalic anhydride industry was sluggish, hindered by slower-than-expected construction activity amid China's property sector downturn. Throughout Q3, China’s economy faced challenges, including a weaker GDP growth rate and a three-month decline in manufacturing activity, despite government efforts to stimulate growth with policy rate cuts. Sufficient m-xylene supply was met with declining downstream demand, while production rates were lowered to align with demand levels. Import delays due to port congestion, typhoons, and supply chain disruptions added some pressure, yet inventory levels remained adequate. The real estate sector’s downturn continued to weigh on demand for m-xylene’s downstream applications, with new-home sales among top developers decreasing sharply year-over-year. This combination of high material availability and weak demand kept m-xylene prices low, and market sentiment is expected to remain subdued in the near term.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European m-xylene market has been experiencing significant challenges in 2024, marked by stable to declining prices driven by muted demand. The German market has been particularly affected, with prices under pressure due to weakened consumption from downstream sectors, especially in phthalic anhydride and PET industries. Despite a decrease in feedstock naphtha prices, which has lowered production costs, the overall market sentiment remains bearish as traders navigate a landscape characterized by sluggish activity and cautious purchasing behavior. Supply dynamics have also played a role, with adequate availability of m-xylene resulting from prior inventory restocking. However, production rates have been curtailed in response to the lack of downstream momentum. Import challenges from Asia, exacerbated by high freight costs and port congestion, have further constrained the supply chain, creating a delicate balance between available material and muted demand. The broader economic context in Europe, particularly Germany, has contributed to these market challenges. With the economy contracting unexpectedly and inflation rising, consumer and business sentiments have weakened. As key industries continue to face downturns, the outlook for the m-xylene market remains uncertain, with expectations of further price declines as demand stays low amid a struggling economy.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the US market, prices of m-xylene have witnessed renewed downward adjustments during the second quarter of 2024 in response to the weak market conditions. Despite the challenging landscape, signs of cautious optimism are emerging amid the recent rally in freight rates and container shortage.
The feedstock Naphtha prices declined throughout the quarter which resulted in the low manufacturing cost of m-xylene. In addition, the demand for m-xylene from the downstream Isophthalic acid industry has remained muted despite the traditional peak season. The consumption of Isophthalic acid from the key end-user PET resin and its derivative sector have remained sluggish which weighed down the prices of m-xylene in the domestic market. The spot market transactions were also flat with most buyers staying on the sidelines.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates high to manage elevated inflation has significantly slowed spending on manufactured goods and capital projects. This environment of reduced expenditure impacts the demand for m-xylene, as manufacturers and businesses face higher borrowing costs, leading to cutbacks in production and investment. The increased cost of financing makes it more expensive for companies to expand operations or invest in new projects, resulting in decreased overall demand for raw materials and intermediates like m-xylene, which is essential in various industrial processes and products. Furthermore, the availability of m-xylene was sufficient to meet the existing downstream demand, leading to a downward shift in the price realization of m-xylene in the domestic market.
Asia- Pacific
M-xylene prices have witnessed mixed sentiments across the Asian market during the second quarter of 2024. In the Indian market, m-xylene prices have declined during the initial Q2 of 2024 owing to a decrease in feedstock Naphtha prices. The demand for m-xylene from the downstream Isophthalic acid industry has subdued with limited instances of new orders reported by market players in the given time frame which weighed down the prices of m-xylene in the domestic market. Additionally, trading activity was limited, primarily due to a lull demand season and reduced-price expectations.
However, towards the end of Q2 of 2024, m-xylene prices have gained an upward pace in the domestic market supported by strong downstream demand and tight supply. However, feedstock Naphtha prices have decreased but it was insufficient to drive the price realization of m-xylene at the lower end in the domestic market. Additionally, demand for m-xylene from the downstream Isophthalic acid industry was gradually picking up and was currently higher than demand in April which lifted the prices of m-xylene in the domestic market. Market player report, consumption of Isophthalic acid from the end-user PET resin and its derivative sector has increased amid seasonal demand. This has led to expectations that demand may increase further in the coming months. In the meantime, shipments of m-xylene from the South Korean and China markets have been delayed owing to severe congestion at the Key Asian ports which resulted in a supply shortage in the Indian domestic market.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, m-xylene prices have remained on a soft note across the German market, reflecting muted market fundamentals. The cost support from feedstock Naphtha was limited to m-xylene as its prices settled on the lower end in the domestic market, supporting the prices to follow a downward trend in the domestic market. In addition, domestic operating rates have remained under pressure in the wake of economic uncertainties. Additionally, heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg did not significantly impact the m-xylene market, with trading activity remaining subdued. Meanwhile, Asian imports have faced logistical challenges, including cargo delays and disruptions in the Red Sea, although expectations suggest improved flow by the second half of July. Despite this, current material availability in the domestic market has been adequate to meet weak spot and contractual demand levels which weighed down the prices of m-xylene in the domestic market. On the demand front, inquiries from the downstream Isophthalic acid remained average as consumption from the key end-user PET resin and its derivative industry was below seasonal expectations which further put a strain on the m-xylene prices. In addition, the spot market transactions were also flat amid divergent supply and demand fundamentals with market players anticipating prices to fluctuate further.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the m-xylene market in the US experienced a sustained increase, driven primarily by surging crude oil futures and production disruptions, fuelled by relentless hikes throughout the quarter. In addition, the feedstock Mixed Xylene prices have persistently increased which in turn led to high production costs of Mixed Xylene in the domestic market, supporting the prices to follow an uptrend. On the other side, upstream crude oil prices settled higher as hostilities continued in the Red Sea with Iran-aligned Houthis stepping up attacks near Yemen and reports of falling inventories assisting prices to edge higher.
The ongoing rally in the energy market has raised the overall production costs, primarily contributing to the firmness of the m-xylene market. Additionally, reduced manufacturing activity during the winter season led to lower material availability, further driving up prices. Apart from this, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, along with traffic constraints in the Panama Canal and deep-freezing temperatures in the US, caused delays in supply.
These delays, coupled with increased shipping costs, have led to transportation cost increases, further supporting the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market. Furthermore, persistent inflation and high interest rates have deteriorated the purchasing power of consumers. Meanwhile, on the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream Isophthalic acid were relatively average in the domestic market as consumption from the end-user PET resin has slowed down amid off-season dullness. Nonetheless, it had a limited bearing on the prices of m-xylene.
Asia- Pacific
m-xylene prices have witnessed a mixed trend in the Asia-Pacific region during the first quarter of 2024. During the first half of 2024, m-xylene prices have increased in the Indian market as market players restocked the inventories in the domestic market. The cost support from feedstock Mixed Xylene was sufficient on m-xylene as its prices settled on the higher end in the domestic market. Additionally, overseas crude oil prices have also increased by more than 1% on 25th January 2024, sustained by a larger-than-expected US crude draw, Chinese stimulus, and continual attacks by the Houthis in and near the Red Sea. These all factors lead to bullish market sentiments of m-xylene among the manufacturers. Apart from this, imports from the Chinese market have turned costly which in turn led to high imported prices of m-xylene. However, m-xylene prices have started to decline towards the second half of 2024. The consumption from the downstream Isophthalic acid was average in the domestic market which weighed down the prices of m-xylene in the domestic market. Most market transactions were mainly based on small orders. Furthermore, m-xylene players have reported adequate material availability in the domestic market, which was keeping them away from committing to fresh import offers. The previous quarter witnessed an uptick in offers from China, but buyers mostly ignored the higher levels resulting in high-end prices disappearing in March.
Europe
m-xylene prices have witnessed a bullish rally in the German market during the first quarter of 2024. Supply constraints were the primary factor driving the price increase, despite ongoing economic challenges putting pressure on demand from the downstream Isophthalic acid sector. Additionally, cost support from feedstock Mixed Xylene was sufficient for m-xylene as its prices settled on the higher end in the domestic market. These supported the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market. On the upstream front, crude oil prices surged by more than $3/barrel with Brent crude crossing above $90/barrel amid heightened fears of supply disruptions following unofficial reports of explosions in the Middle East. In addition, the oil rally has further fuelled a strong trend in several commodities including m-xylene. However, the demand for m-xylene from the downstream Isophthalic acid was yet to provide full support for the ongoing upswing in m-xylene prices. Market players report, that higher prices indeed result in more active buying activity, but it remained at replenishment rather than stockpiling amid underperforming downstream sectors. Moreover, the series of holidays across the region has also dampened the market trading atmosphere. Meanwhile, imports from the Asian market were higher amid elevated freight rates, disrupted supply chains, and firming in other major global markets, further supported the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
m-xylene prices have continued to decrease in the US market during the fourth quarter of 2023. The cost pressure from feedstock Mixed Xylene was inadequate on m-xylene as its prices settled on the lower end in the domestic market. These supported the prices to follow a downtrend in the domestic market. Furthermore, macroeconomic challenges such as ongoing inflationary pressure and elevated interest rates diminished the purchasing power of end-users. While the Federal Reserve aimed for a 2% annual inflation target, achieving this goal was not anticipated for several years. Market indicators suggested that the central bank was likely concluding its rate hikes in the current cycle, even though officials had one more increase planned before the year's end.
On the demand side, inquiries from the downstream Isophthalic acid industry have remained lukewarm in the domestic market due to weak consumption from the end-user PET resin and its derivative sector. This weak demand continued to place pressure on sellers, with buyers either making limited purchases when necessary or adopting a cautious stance in anticipation of potential further declines. The fall in downstream demand could be attributed to underperforming end businesses and global economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, demand from the overseas market has also soft as buyers refrained from actively stocking up on the material, further contributing to the downward pressure on m-xylene prices.
Despite disruptions in the supply chain caused by turmoil in the Red Sea and prolonged drought in the Panama Canal, material availability was sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand which further deteriorated the prices of m-xylene in the domestic market.
Asia- Pacific
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, the South Korean market witnessed a consistent decline in m-xylene prices, mirroring challenging conditions in the nation's chemical industry. Factors such as decelerating economic growth, diminished demand, and an oversupply in the domestic market contributed to these unfavourable circumstances. Despite the volatile fluctuations in crude oil markets caused by geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, feedstock Mixed Xylene prices recorded monthly losses, leading to reduced cost support for m-xylene within the domestic market. On the demand side, inquiries from the downstream Isophthalic acid industry remained subdued, reflecting persistent sluggishness in off-take from the end-user PET resin and its derivative sector in the domestic market. There is an anticipation that demand may witness improvement in the latter part of Q1 2024. Notably, market transactions were predominantly characterized by small orders. Meanwhile, inquiries from the Chinese market showed a negative trend, influenced by economic uncertainties, with China-bound shipments experiencing a 9.5% drop in October, indicating weakened demand. In terms of domestic production, manufacturing firms maintained steady rates, indicating a lack of improvement in demand from the downstream industry. Additionally, South Korea's manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index slightly improved from 49.8 in October to 50.0 in November, indicating stable operating conditions midway through the final quarter of 2023. Despite this stability, existing inventory levels were considered sufficient, prompting manufacturers to clear out their current inventories at discounted prices.
Europe
The European chemical industry grappled with significant challenges due to heightened tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict, ongoing Russia-Ukraine geopolitical issues, and shifts in the global energy market. These geopolitical events led to continuous fluctuations in chemical raw material prices, impacting terminal demand on a broader scale. During the last quarter of 2023, the German market witnessed a decline in m-xylene prices, driven by a deepening economic downturn linked to weakened domestic demand. Factory production downstream continued at reduced levels during this period. Within the domestic market, the demand from the downstream Isophthalic acid industry remained dull influenced by slow consumption from end-user sectors. This contributed to a downward pressure on m-xylene prices. The spot market transactions were also average as the enthusiasm of terminal firms to enter the market was not strong. Apart from this, macroeconomic headwinds notably firm inflationary pressure and high interest rates have further eroded the purchasing power of end-users. Market participants observed that the deteriorating demand outlook accelerated destocking activities toward the end of the year. Moreover, the decrease in feedstock Mixed Xylene prices resulted in a lower production cost for m-xylene in the domestic market. Simultaneously, competitively priced offers from the Asian market further weighed down m-xylene prices in the German domestic market. Additionally, manufacturing firms operated at reduced rates since Q3 of 2023, reflecting the lack of improvement in demand from the downstream industry. In addition, Federal statistics revealed an unexpected 0.7% drop in German industrial production in November compared to the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing and industrial activity. However, inventory levels were sufficient to meet overall downstream demand, contributing to bearish market sentiments for m-xylene.
