For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in North America experienced a decline in prices, marking a challenging quarter for the industry. This downturn was primarily driven by a surplus in supply and subdued demand from major sectors, including packaging and construction, which exerted significant downward pressure on prices.
The ongoing hurricane season further disrupted supply chains, causing logistical challenges and affecting production and distribution networks. These disruptions added to the existing supply-side constraints, amplifying the price decline. Additionally, fluctuating prices of feedstock Ethylene, alongside variations in upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, influenced overall market dynamics.
In the USA, the market faced the most pronounced price changes, with a noticeable decline compared to the previous quarter, highlighting the impact of these combined factors. By the end of the quarter, LDPE Film Grade FOB Texas was priced at USD 1256/MT, reflecting the negative sentiment and the challenging pricing environment that persisted throughout Q3 2024. This trend underscored the ongoing pressures facing the North American LDPE market, particularly from supply chain vulnerabilities and demand fluctuations.
APAC
In Q3 2024, Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) prices in the APAC region showed a downward trend, reflecting a challenging market environment. This decline was driven by weakened demand from key downstream sectors, such as packaging, construction, and automotive industries. Ample supply levels further pressured the market, as sluggish demand and cautious purchasing behavior among importers intensified the situation. The decline in feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs also played a role in the overall decrease in LDPE prices, affecting market conditions throughout the quarter. Additionally, Typhoon Yagi caused significant supply chain disruptions across Asia, particularly impacting southern China and Vietnam. The super typhoon caused severe damage in northern Vietnam and heavy rains in southern China, leading to delays in ocean logistics from Haiphong, vessel hold-ups, and container terminal closures in Hong Kong. The severe weather in East Asian ports further worsened congestion at Chinese ports, increasing waiting times at major locations such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Yantian due to vessel bunching, adding further pressure to the supply chain. Japan saw the most significant price changes, with a sharp decline compared to the same period last year. The quarter ended with LDPE prices in Japan at USD 1114/MT FOB Tokyo, indicating a continued negative market sentiment.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in Europe experienced a significant increase in prices, driven by multiple influential factors. Primary driver for price trend among these was the rising cost of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha, which led to heightened cost pressures on LDPE production. Further, fluctuations in Crude oil prices contributed to the overall dynamics of the market, complicating pricing strategies further. Supply constraints were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the region, along with port congestions that restricted the availability of various LDPE grades, thereby fueling the price surge. The overall tightness in LDPE supply was further intensified by a notable decline in the manufacturing sector, which saw substantial drops in new orders, purchasing activity, and employment levels during September. In particular, the UK experienced the most pronounced price changes within the region. When compared to the previous quarter of 2024, prices displayed a consistent upward trajectory. Consequently, the price of LDPE Film FD in Surrey rose by 2.6% in August, followed by a slight increase of 0.8% in September, reflecting a stable and favorable pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region displayed overall stability, with prices experiencing minimal fluctuations. This steady trend was primarily influenced by moderately low demand from key sectors such as packaging, automotive, and construction, combined with sufficient product availability, which helped maintain consistent pricing. External global factors like supply disruptions, increased freight rates, and feedstock price fluctuations, particularly Ethylene, also contributed to the stable market environment by balancing supply and demand pressures. Saudi Arabia, however, showed the most significant price variations. While the overall MEA market remained steady, LDPE prices in Saudi Arabia experienced an uptick compared to the same period last year, indicating a gradual upward trend. By the end of the quarter, the price for LDPE Film Grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia was recorded at USD 1138/MT, reinforcing the stable yet slightly positive sentiment in the market. This stability, despite external challenges, highlights the resilience of the MEA LDPE market in maintaining balanced pricing dynamics throughout Q3 2024.
South America
In Q3 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in South America experienced a period of declining prices due to several key factors. The market's negative trend was primarily driven by weak demand from key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive industries. An abundant domestic supply, coupled with low international buying interest, further added to the downward pressure on prices. The region also faced logistical challenges such as port congestion, labor disputes, and disruptions from the active hurricane season, which affected supply chains and intensified pricing pressures. Brazil, in particular, exhibited the most notable price fluctuations, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the market. Despite the downturn, there was a slight increase in prices from the previous quarter, indicating some level of resilience in Brazil amidst difficult conditions. By the end of the quarter, the price for LDPE Film Grade CFR Santos in Brazil was recorded at USD 1382/MT, highlighting the prevailing downtrend and the challenging environment that characterized the South American LDPE market in Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in North America experienced a sustained decline in prices, which surged only in the last month of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily driven by the low cost of imported materials, which exerted significant pressure on domestic market prices. Despite stable feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, the ample stock availability further encouraged traders to maintain lower pricing levels. Moderate demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging failed to absorb the existing supply, reinforcing the downward pricing trajectory.
High freight rates from the Middle East and Asia drove international buyers toward competitively priced U.S. resin, influencing the overall market dynamics. Additionally, seasonal demand fluctuations, with the onset of summer typically heightening activity in key industries, were insufficient to counterbalance the prevailing surplus.
By the end of the quarter, the price of LDPE Film Grade FOB Texas in the USA rose by 4% in June 2024, marking a positive pricing environment overall. Consistent demand, coupled with supply constraints and rising feedstock costs, contributed to a predominantly positive outlook for LDPE pricing in Q2 2024.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed an upward trajectory in Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) prices across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, driven by a confluence of multifaceted factors. Predominantly, fluctuating crude oil prices have exerted upward pressure on production costs, further compounded by increased freight rates amidst ongoing logistical bottlenecks. The transportation challenges, marked by a persistent shortage of container space, have exacerbated supply chain disruptions, delaying shipments and inflating costs. Additionally, maintenance turnarounds in petrochemical plants across the region have tightened supply, thereby elevating market prices. Energy costs have consistently remained elevated, contributing further to the overall cost pressures in the market. Japan has experienced significant price fluctuations, in the APAC region. Japan's quarter-ending price for LDPE FOB Tokyo surged by 3%, marking a pronounced increase that aligns with the broader regional trends. The overall sentiment for the pricing environment in this quarter has been decidedly positive, with market forces driving a sustained upward movement in prices. This consistent increase in pricing underscores the robust demand dynamics and the supply-side constraints that have characterized the APAC LDPE market in Q2 2024.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has proven challenging for the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in Europe, characterized by a consistent downward pricing trend. Several significant factors have influenced this decline, including an overabundance of supply, subdued demand from key downstream sectors like construction and automotive, and logistical disruptions. Despite a stable Ethylene feedstock cost, weak market sentiment stemming from global economic uncertainties and competitive pressures from non-European suppliers exacerbated the downward price trajectory. In the UK, the market witnessed the most substantial price changes, underscoring a broader regional trend. Key reasons include persistent global demand weakness, sluggish growth in major economies such as the US and China, and severe weather events disrupting supply chains, notably along the river Rhine. Conclusively, the latest quarter-ending price depreciation in June 2024 for LDPE Film Grade FD Surrey in the UK was 3%. The pricing environment has been notably negative, driven by external economic pressures and internal market imbalances, marking a period of significant price depreciation for LDPE in the region.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in the MEA region experienced a fluctuation in prices, as the prices remained stable in April, and declined in May, however, witnessed an escalation in June, by quarter end. Several factors contributed to this trend, including easing feedstock Ethylene prices and Crude oil price fluctuations. The construction and packaging sectors showed a decrease in demand for LDPE, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea, affected supply. Freight rates saw a slight increase, but the impact on overall pricing remained contained due to balanced market conditions. In Saudi Arabia, the LDPE market exhibited the most notable price changes within the MEA region. Though the trend remained declining, nevertheless, it rebounded in June amid an escalation in the freight rates amid Red Sea disturbances and port congestions in the Asian region. which has impacted the prices of the products globally and has led to a price surge. Thus, the price of LDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia increased by 1% by the quarter-end in June 2024.
South America
In Q2 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in South America experienced a sustained decline in prices, with a surge only in the last month of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily driven by the low cost of imported materials from the USA, which exerted significant pressure on domestic market prices. Despite stable feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, ample stock availability further encouraged traders to maintain lower pricing levels. Moderate demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging failed to absorb the existing supply, reinforcing the downward pricing trajectory. High freight rates from the Middle East and Asia drove international buyers toward competitively priced U.S. resin, influencing the overall market dynamics.
Additionally, seasonal demand fluctuations, with the onset of summer typically heightening activity in key industries, were insufficient to counterbalance the prevailing surplus. By the end of the quarter, the price of LDPE Film grade CFR Santos in Brazil rose by 3% in June 2024, marking a positive pricing environment overall. Consistent demand, coupled with supply constraints and rising feedstock costs, contributed to a predominantly positive outlook for LDPE pricing in Q2 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American region experienced an overall positive pricing environment for Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE). Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. The demand for LDPE remained strong, particularly in downstream industries such as construction and packaging.
This robust demand, coupled with limited supply, exerted upward pressure on prices. Additionally, the cost of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha increased, further contributing to the price surge. Within the USA, the country with the most significant price changes, LDPE prices saw a consistent upward trend throughout the quarter. The price increased by 34% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. There was also a noticeable price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, with prices rising by 7% in the latter half.
Despite these price increases, the LDPE pricing environment remained stable and positive. The quarter ended with a price of USD 1266/MT of LDPE Film Grade FOB Texas in the USA, reflecting the continued upward trajectory. Overall, the Q1 2024 LDPE pricing in North America demonstrated a consistent and significant increase. The strong demand, limited supply, and rising feedstock costs all contributed to the upward price trend.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has seen an overall increase in prices for Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) in the APAC region. Several factors have influenced market prices during this period. The overall trend for LDPE prices in Japan has been positive, with a 2% increase from the previous quarter. This is in line with the seasonal pattern, as LDPE prices tend to rise during the first quarter of the year. The correlation between LDPE prices in Japan and other countries in the APAC region has been strong, with similar price movements observed across the region. Compared to the same quarter last year, LDPE prices in the APAC region have decreased by 4%. However, there has been a significant improvement in prices compared to the previous quarter, with a 10% increase recorded. This indicates a positive price trend in the region. In terms of price changes within the quarter, LDPE prices in Japan remained stable, with a 2% increase from the first half to the second half of the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for LDPE in Japan was USD 1098/MT FOB Tokyo. Overall, the pricing environment for LDPE in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024 has been positive, with prices showing an increasing trend.
Europe
The Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in Europe during Q1 2024 has witnessed increasing prices, reflecting a positive pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including the supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, the LDPE market in Europe has shown resilience. In the UK, LDPE prices experienced frequent fluctuations, with an overall upward trend. The price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was 7%, reflecting a continuing upward trajectory. Notably, there was an 8% price increase from the first half to the second half of the quarter. Overall, the LDPE market in the UK has demonstrated stability and a positive pricing trend. The quarter-ending price for LDPE Film Grade FD Surrey in the UK was USD 1325/MT, further indicating the increasing prices in the market. These price fluctuations can be attributed to various factors, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in feedstock prices. Despite these challenges, LDPE prices have remained resilient, reflecting the overall positive pricing environment in the European market. In conclusion, the LDPE market in Europe, has experienced increasing prices during Q1 2024. The overall trend has been positive, with significant price changes compared to the same quarter last year and the previous quarter.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced an overall positive pricing environment, with prices increasing steadily. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. Firm demand from downstream sectors, particularly packaging and construction, played a significant role in driving the price upward. Additionally, the availability of upstream Naphtha remained consistent, contributing to stable product prices. However, market dynamics were overshadowed by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, resulting in supply chain disruptions and increased freight rates, which added to the overall costs of LDPE. In Saudi Arabia, which saw the maximum price changes in the MEA region, LDPE prices remained relatively stable throughout the quarter. Demand from both domestic and overseas markets, such as Asia and Europe, remained steady. The availability of LDPE supply within the region was also consistent. Despite a drop in feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, LDPE prices remained unchanged due to firm demand. Overall, the LDPE market in the MEA region witnessed an 8% increase in prices compared to the previous quarter in 2024. However, when compared to the same quarter last year, prices remained unchanged. In terms of seasonality, prices in the second half of the quarter were 2% higher than in the first half. By the end of the quarter, LDPE Film Grade in Saudi Arabia was quoted at USD 1140/MT FOB Al Jubail. The pricing environment for LDPE in Q1 2024 in the MEA region was characterized by steady increases, driven by robust demand and geopolitical tensions impacting supply chain dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, LDPE prices in North America experienced volatility, with an initial surge in October followed by a depreciation in the LDPE market by the end of the quarter, resulting in a 4% decline in December for LDPE Film grade FOB Texas (USA).
The price increase in the first month of the quarter was driven by higher feedstock Ethylene prices and robust demand from downstream sectors such as construction, packaging, and automotive industries. However, during November and December, LDPE prices in North America followed a downward trajectory, influenced by decreasing upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices and subdued global market demand. While domestic market demand remained steady, there was a reduction in export demand from Asian traders, though inquiries from Latin America and Europe persisted, although at lower levels.
In November, export offers began to emerge, prompting some producers to adjust their prices downward to align with the softer international sentiment, likely influenced by declining Crude Oil prices. Further, the market experienced supply disruptions due to low water levels in the Panama Canal, leading to restrictions on the number of ships crossing the Canal. Additionally, Plant shutdown was reported as Chevron Phillips Chemical shut its Ethylene unit for maintenance turnaround in mid-October. The plant is located in Port Arthur, Texas in the US, and has a plant capacity of 835,000mt/year.
APAC
The LDPE market in the APAC region exhibited varied trends throughout Q4 2023, primarily driven by fluctuating demand sentiments. Initially, LDPE prices surged in October 2023 in the Asian market as the prices in Japan increased by 1%, but the price trajectory declined by 2% in mid-quarter and stabilized by the end of the year. The market was influenced by international Crude oil prices and diminishing support for the product on the cost side. LDPE supply was moderate, while demand ranged from moderate to low, resulting in a subdued transaction atmosphere. The easing price of feedstock Ethylene contributed to a diminishing trend and alleviated cost pressures on the product. Moreover, the lackluster demand from the downstream construction and packaging industry in China, a major consumer, prompted market participants to adjust their prices in response to market dynamics. Conversely, the Indian market exhibited an opposite trend, inclining by the end of the year which was primarily driven by increased demand in the domestic market and elevated freight rates.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, the price of LDPE in Europe followed a declining trend, primarily influenced by subdued demand from the domestic market, particularly from downstream packaging and construction industries. The construction sector in the Eurozone experienced an overall contraction, with notable declines in France and Germany, the latter witnessing its most significant output drop in over three and a half years. The housing sector remained the poorest-performing sub-sector for the fifteenth consecutive month in November, with new orders decreasing due to weak demand conditions, leading to job cuts and a negative outlook for future output. Input costs saw an accelerated increase, prompting construction companies to display signs of cost-cutting measures. Moreover, feedstock Ethylene prices remained dwindled as upstream Naphtha witnessed a decline amid weakening Crude oil prices. The conclusion of the peak oil season in Europe resulted in a demand reduction, further suppressing the Crude oil market. Collectively, these factors contributed to an 11% decline in LDPE Film grade FD Surrey (UK) prices at the conclusion of the quarter.
MEA
In the last quarter of 2023 in Middle Eastern nations, the LDPE market initially saw an uptick followed by a decreasing trend by the end of the quarter. The price surge in October was propelled by sustained demand from downstream sectors, particularly packaging and construction, which helped maintain prices despite a decline in feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices. The Middle Eastern LDPE market exhibited a moderate scenario with a steady supply from both domestic and international sources. However, inflationary pressures influenced consumer sentiments, leading to a reduction in domestic market demand. As the quarter concluded, LDPE prices experienced a decline owing to the easing of feedstock Ethylene and Crude oil costs, resulting in reduced production expenses. Additionally, bearish demand sentiments from the Asian and European markets contributed to the downward shift in prices. Further, the attacks in the Red Sea in mid-December have impacted Saudi Arabian producers situated along the Red Sea's west coast as exports to Turkey, Europe, and North Africa have experienced disruptions. Sellers were worried due to subdued demand in most regions, and the year-end deceleration is discouraging a significant number of buyers. Beyond export challenges, Saudi producers were also grappling with concerns about the availability of empty containers due to ongoing issues. Logistical problems may lead to shipping line delays in back-haul routes to Saudi Arabia, resulting in a shortage of empty containers for local producers. Consequently, LDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia depreciated by 3% in December 2023.
South America
In Q4 2023, LDPE prices exhibited a mixed trend, with an initial increase in October followed by a 3% decline in the price of LDPE Film grade CFR Santos in Brazil by the end of the quarter. In October 2023, Brazilian LDPE prices elevated due to rising feedstock Ethylene costs and increased demand from downstream packaging and automotive industries, impacting material pricing. Traders secured LDPE for short-term needs and selectively replenished their inventories, while imported costs from the USA remained high. However, by the end of the quarter, the LDPE market observed a decrease in prices, primarily attributed to sluggish demand from downstream sectors in the region. The decline was further influenced by a drop in feedstock Ethylene costs, impacted by the pessimistic market situation during the same period. Further, upstream Naphtha costs decreased due to the weakening in Crude oil prices, alleviating cost pressures in LDPE production. The affordability of imported materials from the USA also contributed to overall lower costs in the domestic market. Moreover, as 2023 came to a close, Brazil's manufacturing industry continued to contract. Output and new orders experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, leading to a reduction in input buying as companies prioritized utilization over adding to inventories.
