For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Liquid Chlorine market witnessed a significant decrease in prices, with the USA experiencing the most notable changes. Various factors influenced the market dynamics, including disruptions like plant shutdowns due to hurricanes and power failures.
These disruptions impacted supply chains, leading to temporary closures and affecting the overall availability of Liquid Chlorine. The quarter saw a -12% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a challenging pricing environment. Additionally, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a -3% decline, reflecting a consistent downward trend.
The USA market specifically faced multiple plant shutdowns, exacerbating supply constraints and contributing to the negative price trajectory. Despite seasonality and disruptions, the quarter-ending price for Liquid Chlorine (Contract) DEL Texas in the USA settled at USD 685/MT, marking a culmination of the decreasing pricing sentiment observed throughout the quarter. The correlation between disruptions, supply chain challenges, and pricing trends underscored the overall bearish outlook for Liquid Chlorine in North America during Q3 2024.
Asia
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a significant decline in Liquid Chlorine prices, influenced by a multitude of factors. The market experienced a negative trend due to oversupply and weakened demand across various sectors. Challenges such as reduced industrial output, sluggish economic growth, and supply chain disruptions contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and logistical issues further exacerbated the pricing decline. China, in particular, saw the most pronounced price changes, with a substantial -14% decrease from the previous quarter. The second half of the quarter recorded a notable -9% drop compared to the first half. This sharp decline reflects the challenging market conditions and the impact of global economic uncertainties on chemical pricing dynamics. The quarter-ending price of USD 31/MT for Liquid Chlorine in China highlights the prevailing negative sentiment in the market, indicating a bearish outlook for the chemical sector. Disruptions and plant shutdowns like [insert names here] also added to the pricing challenges faced during the quarter, underscoring the overall unfavorable pricing environment in the APAC region.
Europe
As per the data, Liquid Chlorine prices kept on fluctuating in a narrow range in the European market during the third quarter of 2024. The key factor behind these fluctuations were uncertainties hovering around the economy due to ongoing war in the west Asia coupled with prolonged dullness in economic momentum of not Europe but also USA. Europe’s freight market in Q3 2024 was marked by rising costs, container shortages, and logistical challenges. Major carriers like MSC and CMA CGM raised FAK rates to as high as $6,500 per container due to space constraints and operational surcharges. Red Sea disruptions and port congestion in Singapore further delayed shipments. Air freight rates from Northeast Asia to Europe surged due to e-commerce growth and semiconductor demand, with spot rates up 40% year-on-year. Despite increased capacity, imbalances between outbound and return loads persist, complicating logistics. As geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand rise, freight markets are expected to remain volatile into Q4 2024. On the economic perspective, Europe’s economic landscape in Q3 2024 was marked by stagnation and challenges, with Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, grappling with a prolonged industrial recession. The Bundesbank reported weak industrial output, high energy costs, and declining export demand. Germany’s economy showed little to no growth and might contract again this quarter, negatively impacting the broader eurozone.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American Liquid Chlorine market experienced price stability driven by several key factors. One pivotal reason was the lower output of chlor-alkali chemicals, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions, notably the force majeure incidents at HF Chlor-Alkali LLC and Westlake Chemical Corporation in Kentucky due to power outages. Additionally, heightened logistical challenges, particularly in shipping routes from Asia, contributed to supply tightness, placing upward pressure on prices since April 2024.
Focusing on the USA, the country observed substantial price hikes, reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The USA saw a continuous increase in Liquid Chlorine prices throughout Q2, primarily influenced by seasonally high demand coupled with fluctuating performance in downstream industries, such as construction, which exhibited a mixed trend. Furthermore, the market was impacted by external economic factors like high interest rates and reduced consumer spending, adding complexity to the demand-supply dynamics.
The consistent price escalation, despite moderate demand fluctuations, underscored the prevailing supply constraints and the overall firmness in market sentiment. By the end of Q2 2024, Liquid Chlorine prices in the USA reached USD 760/MT (Contract) DEL Texas, reflecting the ongoing challenges and tight supply conditions that characterized this period, resulting in a largely positive pricing environment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Liquid Chlorine market in the APAC Region experienced a phase of price surge, driven by consistent demand from downstream industries, including PVC and construction, alongside steady production rates. Notably, intermittent supply disruptions due to temporary plant shutdowns, such as those announced by Tata Chemicals Ltd for production optimization, played a role in maintaining price levels. The fluctuations in global freight rates and regional logistical challenges led to the availability of Liquid Chlorine remaining insufficient to meet market needs. Focusing on China, the country witnessed the maximum price changes during this quarter. The Chinese market reflected overall stability, shaped by a blend of seasonality and strategic production adjustments. The onset of scheduled maintenance by key producers meant that while there was a temporary strain on supply, it did not significantly disrupt the market due to pre-existing stockpiles. This period saw China’s trend towards cautious procurement, aligning with a slower recovery in downstream sectors such as PVC, which had a direct impact on maintaining price equilibrium. Conclusively, the latest quarter-ending price for Liquid Chlorine in China stood at USD 36/MT, reflecting a surge in the pricing environment. Overall, the pricing environment for Liquid Chlorine in Q2 2024 has been marked by stability, underpinned by balanced supply-demand conditions and strategic production management, indicating a neutral to positive market sentiment.
Europe
In Q2 2024, European Liquid Chlorine prices rose due to supply chain challenges, including logistics disruptions and rerouted paths resulting from the Red Sea turmoil. The industry faced decreased production rates and supply interruptions, leading to significant reductions in the availability in Germany. Fluctuations in global upstream Natural Gas prices over the first half of Q2 have increased operational costs, further pressuring prices. Contributing factors include tighter physical markets, prolonged production cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Inflation across German states also impacted short-term pricing, while Germany’s push for tighter global energy cooperation positively influenced prices. Consequently, market players raised prices to sustain margins in the European market. European Liquid Chlorine Suppliers faced challenges, resulting in reduced stock availability. Additionally, port operations were disrupted as the Verdi trade union initiated a warning strike affecting major ports, including Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Brake, and Emden, starting in June 2024. Workers at HHLA and Eurogate terminals in Hamburg ceased operations amid stalled wage negotiations for a new collective labor agreement, causing significant port activity disruptions as reported by German media. As the high season approaches, market players are closely monitoring demand trends. However, minimal inventory procurement sentiments in the Eurozone could hinder significant margin recovery efforts, complicating price hikes to offset upstream cost pressures.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 came out to be a dynamic period for the Liquid Chlorine market in North America, characterized by fluctuating prices driven by several factors. First and foremost, demand dynamics played a pivotal role in influencing market prices. While some downstream industries maintained a steady demand for Liquid Chlorine, the onset of summer ushered in a shift in demand patterns. Typically, the summer season triggers heightened demand for various chemicals, including Liquid Chlorine, possibly due to increased usage in water treatment and sanitation processes. This seasonal variation in demand exerted additional pressure on prices during the quarter.
Moreover, supply conditions remained relatively stable throughout the period. However, concerns arose regarding production levels, primarily attributable to production cuts implemented by Chlor Alkali manufacturers. The repercussions of the winter storm, which initially disrupted supply chains, gradually subsided, enabling supplies to recover over time.
The United States emerged as a focal point for significant price fluctuations within the region. The market witnessed notable price increases throughout the quarter. In summary, the pricing environment for Liquid Chlorine in North America during the first quarter of 2024 was characterized by an upward trend, influenced by seasonal demand variations, stable yet cautious supply conditions, and specific market dynamics within the USA. The quarter-ending price for Liquid Chlorine in the USA stood at USD 765/MT.
APAC
The pricing dynamics surrounding Liquid Chlorine in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024 have presented a varied outlook. The pricing trajectory exhibited fluctuations, with the initial and final months witnessing a decline, while the middle phase experienced an upward trend. Overall, demand for Liquid Chlorine across the region has been moderate. The construction material segement, a significant consumer of Liquid Chlorine, experienced a slowdown during the winter season, contributing to reduced demand. However, this decline was mitigated by steady product supplies. China notably experienced significant price fluctuations for Liquid Chlorine during this quarter. Domestic market demand remained subdued, primarily due to the construction industry's slowdown, exerting downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, plant shutdowns for maintenance further impacted supply levels. A noticeable correlation exists between seasonal demand shifts and corresponding price changes for Liquid Chlorine. As the winter season progressed, demand tapered off, leading to a slight dip in prices. However, these fluctuations had a relatively minor impact, and overall prices-maintained stability. In summary, the pricing environment for Liquid Chlorine in the APAC region during Q1 2024 reflects mixed sentiments. While prices experienced a 2% decline compared to the previous quarter.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 was characterized by dynamic shifts in the European Liquid Chlorine market. Price fluctuations stemmed from various factors, with demand dynamics playing a central role. While certain downstream industries maintained steady demand for Liquid Chlorine, the transition into spring triggered shifts in demand patterns. This seasonal adjustment typically leads to heightened demand for various chemicals, including Liquid Chlorine, particularly in water treatment, thereby exerting upward pressure on prices. Supply conditions remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, despite concerns over production levels due to production cuts by the manufacturers. The aftermath of the winter storm, which initially disrupted supply chains, gradually eased, facilitating a gradual recovery in supplies over the period. Germany, as a significant player in the European market, witnessed notable price fluctuations mirroring broader regional trends. In summary, the pricing landscape for Liquid Chlorine in Europe during the first quarter of 2024 depicted an upward trajectory, with prices for Liquid Chlorine in Germany rising by 5% compared to the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The fourth quarter of 2023 expresses the skyrocketing trend of liquid chlorine price primarily driven by the tight supply from the source and rising demand from the downstream industries including pool and packed distilled water companies. The price of liquid chlorine in the USA increased by 11% in October compared to the previous month, and further increased by 13.5% in November. This upward price trend was driven by high energy prices, high production cost, inflationary pressure in midst of the labour shortage and the optimistic market sentiment brought about by the festive holiday season. In terms of year-on-year comparison, the price of liquid chlorine in the USA during the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 37% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Additionally, there was a 23% price increase when comparing the first and second halves of the quarter. Key point is the persistently high input cost including high labour cost amidst of shortage of labour in the USA and the economic inflation in the USA domestic market.
Adding to the complexity, Mississippi river megadrought of the October 2023 also created high impact on the overall commodity cost by addition of extra shipment charge driven by the reduction on cargo shipment weight forced traders to accelerate the price. To conclude, the latest price of liquid chlorine in the USA for the current quarter is USD 595/MT (Contract) DEL Texas.
APAC
The APAC region's Liquid Chlorine market during Q4 2023 witnessed mixed performance, with various factors impacting the market and prices. First, the market experienced stable supplies, supported by consistent production activities. Second, demand remained low, both domestically and internationally, which put downward pressure on prices. Third, the Chinese market played a significant role in the region, with its struggling economy affecting the overall market sentiment. China's economy has been struggling for months, despite government policies aimed at boosting optimism. While some sectors have received assistance, it has not been enough to sustain a long-term rebound. Prices have fluctuated based on availability and international demand. The latest price for Liquid Chlorine (Pipeline) Contract EXW-Xinjiang in China at the end of Q4 2023 is USD 33/MT. Whereas Indian market noticed a slight price surge in the October 2023 amidst of the festival season owing to lavish expense sentiments of the populate resulting in progressive in price. However, in November Indian market reflected the slight depreciation in the liquid chlorine price post festivities and low demand from the downstream industries which noticeably remained same till the end of end of the quarter. Conclusively, quarter end price of Liquid Chlorine was USD 123.73/MT (Retail) Ex-Mumbai (India).
Europe
European market witnessed downward trend for the liquid chlorine price in Fourth quarter of the year 2023. As per the data, overall chemical production in Europe decreased with 1.1% in the November month combinedly affecting the liquid chlorine production in Europe. According to European chlor-alkali industry association Euro Chlor, Production of chlorine has remained down since the mid of the 2023, But comparatively risen market has been seen compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. It has been also reported that some chlorine plants were shut down in Europe in the third quarter of the year due to low marginal cost, working as a reason in this market unbalance condition.
Adding to the complexity, Downstream industry performance also remain dull throughout this timeframe, But High demand is expected from downstream FMCG soap and detergent industries will be a key driver in the price surge in the liquid chlorine, decline of price of liquid chlorine also affected by price breakdown of hydrochloric acid due to low demand from construction industry. As per the analysis, prediction is to ascend the construction industry right after the monsoon, PVC (polyvinyl chloride) pipes demand will rise used in the construction industry will contribute in the cost add on in liquid chlorine.
