For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the pricing environment for Liquid Carbon Dioxide in North America witnessed a consistent decrease, with the USA experiencing the most significant price changes. Various factors influenced market prices, including disruptions in the petroleum markets due to hurricanes, impacting crude oil production and refining operations.
The global freight industry also saw a surge in rates, affecting the transportation of goods and leading to higher prices. The demand from carbonated drinks manufacturers and sellers remained moderate, with some companies reporting revenue that exceeded expectations.
In the USA specifically, the pricing trends followed a decreasing sentiment, with prices declining by 1% from the previous quarter. Since over 75% of U.S. gas production came from large inland shale formations, analysts believed that hurricanes were more likely to lower gas prices by reducing demand through power outages and temporarily halting LNG export operations. The plant modernization efforts aimed to boost the supply of molecules within the network and reduce CO2 emissions at the facility, thereby supporting sustainability goals.
APAC
Liquid carbon dioxide prices in the Asian market had continued to follow a declining trend due to falling natural gas prices, which impacted the overall production costs of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, the demand outlook for carbonated drinks remained moderate and well-balanced, with sufficient inventories to meet the needs of both domestic and international markets. Additionally, the Mid-Autumn Festival and plant shutdowns in the domestic market had influenced the final price quotations of liquid carbon dioxide. In a significant shift, the U.S. had overtaken Qatar as the leading global LNG exporter, facilitated by technological advancements that allowed shale producers to access vast reserves. Both countries were pursuing major LNG expansion projects, solidifying their influence in international markets across Europe and Asia. Global beverage companies had faced slower-than-expected sales growth in China for various reasons. In contrast, Thailand's beverage industry, particularly the carbonated soft drinks segment, had witnessed remarkable growth in product variety, driven by the hot and humid climate. This trend had led key industry players to introduce a diverse range of new brands and flavors, boosting demand from international markets, especially in China.
Europe
Liquid Carbon Dioxide pricing in the Europe region for Q3 2024 experienced a downward trend, particularly in France, where the market saw significant price declines. During the quarter, this was marked by disruptions and plant shutdowns at MOL Petrochemicals Plc in Hungary and Air Liquide in the Netherlands due to force majeure events like floods and power outages. These interruptions impacted the supply chain and contributed to a negative pricing environment. Overall, tightening supplies and reduced demand led to a -1% price change from the previous quarter and a -2% difference between the first and second halves. Northern European terminals faced congestion due to adverse weather, holiday-related port closures, and service disruptions, although major ports like Bremerhaven and Rotterdam continued to perform well. Severe weather conditions at South African ports were expected to delay cargo destined for Europe. An oversupply of naphtha in Europe also led to a significant price drop, affecting commodity production costs. Air Liquide in Rotterdam faced a brief disruption due to a power outage, impacting the supply chain slightly. Market players noted that unfavourable weather and cool temperatures created a challenging start to the final quarter, with beer and wine sales showing only fractional growth.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Liquid Carbon Dioxide market in North America experienced a notable increase in prices driven by several critical factors. The most significant influences included robust demand from the carbonated drinks and beverage industries, which surged due to seasonal trends and increased consumer consumption. Additionally, supply chain interruptions exacerbated by global logistics disruptions and higher freight rates added upward pressure on prices. Natural gas price hikes also played a crucial role, as they directly impacted production costs for Liquid Carbon Dioxide.
Focusing on the USA, which saw the most pronounced price changes, the market maintained a bullish sentiment throughout the quarter. The US faced several operational disruptions, including the shutdown of Air Liquide Industrial US LP in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, due to floods. These events constrained supply further, fueling price increases. The overall trend was characterized by consistent upward movements, reflecting a positive pricing environment, despite some fluctuations attributed to weather-related disturbances and logistical challenges.
Seasonality also played a role, with increased temperatures boosting demand for carbonated beverages. There was a 5% increase in prices compared to the previous quarter, indicating a stable yet escalating pricing trend. The first half of the quarter saw slightly lower price increments compared to the second half, recording a 1% difference. By the end of Q2 2024, the price of Liquid Carbon Dioxide DEL Illinois was USD 710/MT, consolidating the quarter's trend of rising prices amidst a constrained supply and heightened demand scenario.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Liquid Carbon Dioxide (CO2) market in the APAC region exhibited a predominantly positive pricing environment, driven by a confluence of factors. Notable among these were the rising global demand for carbonated beverages and industrial applications, amplified by higher temperatures across the region, which spurred increased consumption. Additionally, supply chain disruptions, including delays and logistical challenges, further tightened the market, contributing to the upward price trend. The inclining prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a key feedstock for liquid CO2 production, also played a critical role in elevating production costs and, consequently, market prices. Seasonal spikes in demand associated with summer heatwaves and festivals created additional upward pressure on prices.
Japan experienced the most significant price changes within the region, reflecting a robust demand surge and constrained supply. The quarter showcased a clear trend of price escalation, with notable increases in the latter half driven by intensified consumer demand for beverages and industrial uses. This seasonality effect, coupled with continued supply chain interruptions, underscored the consistent upward trajectory in prices. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 2%, indicating a steady rise. Furthermore, comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, a 2% price increase was observed, reinforcing the trend of escalating prices. The quarter concluded with Liquid CO2 prices in Japan reaching USD 256/MT FOB Tokyo.
Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing landscape for Liquid CO2 in the APAC region was marked by positive sentiment, reflecting strong market fundamentals and external factors driving prices higher.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen a consistent upward trend in liquid carbon dioxide prices across the European market. This quarter has been marked by a confluence of factors driving prices higher, including robust demand from downstream sectors such as carbonated beverages and food processing. Investment funds have shown heightened confidence in European natural gas, with net-long positions in benchmark Dutch gas futures rising, indicating concerns over tightening supplies despite the onset of summer. Additionally, proposed sanctions on Russia's LNG sector aim to limit the growth of its LNG capacity, further influencing market dynamics. Significant supply chain disruptions, including adverse weather conditions and terminal congestion in Northern Europe, have added to the upward price pressures. Additionally, the oversupply of naphtha has caused a ripple effect on production costs, further influencing liquid CO2 prices.
In Germany, the pricing environment has been particularly dynamic, experiencing the most substantial price changes within the region. The German market has been impacted by a combination of seasonal demand spikes, particularly from the carbonated drinks sector, and supply chain interruptions. The latest quarter-ending price for liquid carbon dioxide in Germany stands at USD 221/MT FD Hamburg, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous quarter.
The first half of the quarter witnessed a 4% price rise compared to the second half, underscoring the consistent upward momentum. Plant shutdowns and operational halts, such as those experienced at major production units, have further exacerbated supply constraints. The overall trend indicates a bullish market sentiment driven by firm demand, limited inventories, and increased production costs, contributing to a positive pricing environment for liquid CO2 in Germany for Q2 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of liquid carbon dioxide in the North American region, particularly in the USA, showed a upward trend. The increased demand from carbonated beverage manufacturers provided opportunities for producers to maintain profit margins, despite the ample supply keeping prices on the positive note.
However, the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and production costs put pressure on consumers' budgets. The consistent demand for fizzy drinks indicated a stable or potentially down turning future for CO2, presenting challenges for producers. Plant shutdowns were not reported during this period.
Looking at the broader context, the pricing trend in the first quarter of 2024 can be seen in correlation with the overall market situation and the demand from downstream sectors. While a year-over-year comparison and a comparison with the previous quarter were not provided, it can be inferred that prices remained relatively stable or experienced slight fluctuations. The final quarter's price for Liquid Carbon Dioxide DEL Illinois in the USA was mentioned as USD 690/MT.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Liquid Carbon Dioxide in the APAC region exhibited a mixed trend, with notable fluctuations observed in the Japanese market. Beyond the conventional factors, several key influences shaped the pricing dynamics. The decline in natural gas prices and subdued demand outlook from end-use manufacturing units, such as carbonated drink producers, impacted the prices negatively in the first half of the quarter.
Additionally, the Asian LNG spot market experienced a significant drop in prices due to high inventories and subdued demand in both Asian and European markets. The Japanese market, in particular, experienced pronounced price fluctuations. While the overall trend was bearish, with prices declining, there were factors contributing to short-term price increases in the second half of the quarter.
These factors included firm demand from downstream sectors, disruptions in the supply chain due to the Red Sea conflict, and increased shipping charges. However, it is worth noting that the pricing dynamics in the first quarter of 2024 exhibited a bearish trend compared to the provided final price of USD 250/MT for Liquid Carbon Dioxide FOB Tokyo in Japan. Overall, the analysis highlights the complex interplay of various factors and events, such as plant shutdowns and supply chain disruptions, in shaping the pricing dynamics of Liquid Carbon Dioxide in the APAC region during Q1 2024.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Liquid Carbon Dioxide in the Europe region were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. While the market situation in Belgium experienced pronounced price fluctuations, it is important to analyse the overall trend, seasonality, and correlation in pricing rather than focusing on month-by-month comparisons. The year-over-year price change from the same quarter last year and the change from the last quarter of 2023 were significant contributors to the pricing dynamics. North European container hub ports appeared to have managed the arrival of a fleet of ships from Asia, which had been redirected around the African coast, causing delays. According to Hapag-Lloyd's terminal operations report for North Europe, hub ports such as Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Southampton saw a substantial rise in yard utilization levels last week, reaching between 85% and 90%. This surge contrasted with previous weeks, when utilization levels were only around 55%, suggesting the arrival of the delayed vessels. However, specific details regarding plant shutdowns were not provided in the given information. Overall, the pricing for Liquid Carbon Dioxide FD Antwerp in Belgium concluded at USD 220/MT for the final quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Liquid Carbon Dioxide market in North America experienced a mixed trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Oct-Dec). The prices of Liquid Carbon Dioxide continued to rise due to elevated natural gas prices in the first half of the quarter. The increased demand from the carbonated drinks and food packaging sectors significantly impacted the overall price dynamics.
Despite the moderate production cost in the domestic market, the demand outlook remained moderate. However, the market faced challenges due to limited inventories to cater to the domestic demand. There were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. However, consumer sentiment remained under pressure, and there were expectations of a decline in demand.
Towards the quarter the rising rate had a notable impact on the production cost, placing a burden on consumers. Although external factors indicated a market softening, the consistent demand for carbonated beverages suggests a promising future for carbon dioxide, resembling the effervescence of a freshly opened soda. This outlook provides stability and even the potential for an upward trend, presenting opportunities for producers who are optimistic about ongoing demand. The quarter ended with a price of USD 670/MT for Liquid Carbon Dioxide DEL Illinois in the USA.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the liquid carbon dioxide market in the APAC region exhibited a southwards performance. A significant factor influencing the market was the moderate state of the supply chain, characterized by a slowdown in export volumes due to subdued demand both domestically and internationally. Concurrently, the demand for liquid carbon dioxide from the packaging industry and other downstream sectors remained at a moderate level throughout the quarter. A noteworthy development during this period was the reduction in natural gas prices, contributing to a decline in liquid carbon dioxide prices towards the quarter's end. This, combined with a less optimistic demand outlook from end-use manufacturing units involved in the production of carbonated drinks and beverages, played a role in the overall downward price trend. In a detailed analysis of specific countries, Japan observed a decrease in liquid carbon dioxide prices during the quarter. Prices in Japan declined by 6% compared to the previous quarter, settling at USD 250 per metric ton, Free on Board (FOB) Tokyo. In summary, the liquid carbon dioxide market in the APAC region encountered challenges during the fourth quarter of 2023, characterized by subdued demand and declining prices.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the European market for liquid carbon dioxide experienced several significant factors that impacted prices. Firstly, the overall operational rate in the region declined, leading to a reduction in production costs. This decrease in replenishing storage facilities reduced the risk of capacity constraints during the winter heating season. Another contributing factor was the ongoing destocking trend in the Eurozone, which led to a substantial decline in manufacturing activity. Recent data from exchanges has shown that hedge funds and other financial entities had a net short position in Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, which functions as Europe's gas trading benchmark. This shift was influenced by factors such as abundant inventories, eased concerns regarding supply shortages, reduced demand, and a growing belief that Europe could successfully navigate the winter without encountering substantial supply disruptions. In terms of pricing trends, the current quarter's price of liquid carbon dioxide FD Antwerp in Belgium is USD 215/MT.
