For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 has been marked by a significant uptrend in Insoluble Sulphur prices in North America, with the USA experiencing the most notable price changes. This increase can be attributed to various factors influencing the market dynamics.
Firstly, ongoing supply chain disruptions, such as labor strikes and natural disasters, have constrained the availability of Insoluble Sulphur, leading to a tightening of supply. Secondly, heightened demand from the downstream automobile sector. Additionally, rising production costs, driven by increased crude oil prices and operational challenges, have added upward pressure on Insoluble Sulphur prices.
In the USA specifically, the Insoluble Sulphur market has shown consistent price growth, with a from the same quarter last year. The quarter-on-quarter change highlights the continuous upward trajectory. Moreover, the substantial variance between the first and second half of the quarter underscores the significant price fluctuations within the period. As of the latest quarter ending, Insoluble Sulphur prices stand, reflecting a sustained positive pricing environment characterized by increasing trends and bullish sentiments.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Insoluble Sulphur market in the APAC region witnessed a notable uptrend in prices, driven by various factors influencing market dynamics. The quarter was characterized by increasing prices, primarily attributed to rising production costs stemming from a surge in Crude Oil prices. Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in key oil-producing regions added uncertainty, further pushing Crude Oil prices upwards. This, in turn, impacted the production costs of Insoluble Sulphur, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the market. China's passenger vehicle sales increased by 4.3% in September 2024 compared to the previous year, ending a five-month decline, thanks to a government subsidy aimed at encouraging trade-ins as part of a broader stimulus initiative. The growth was driven entirely by battery-powered vehicles, which saw a boost after subsidies for consumers were doubled in July. Meanwhile, sales of gasoline-powered cars, once dominated by foreign brands, continued to decline. In total, 2.13 million vehicles were sold in September, up from 2.04 million a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2024, sales rose by 1.9% compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The market in Singapore exhibited seasonality trends, with fluctuations driven by factors such as supply-demand imbalances and inventory levels. Despite the negative price change from the previous quarter, the quarter-on-quarter comparison showed an increase, highlighting the volatility and dynamics within the market. The quarter-ending price in Singapore reflected a consistent increasing sentiment, with the overall pricing environment remaining positive.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Insoluble Sulphur market in Europe experienced a strong uptrend in prices, marked by a considerable increase in market value. This growth was largely driven by limited supply due to maintenance rounds and unexpected outages at Western European refineries, tightening availability and pushing prices higher. The widening price spread between Insoluble Sulphur and crude oil further underscored bullish market sentiments. Car sales saw a significant drop in the third quarter of 2024, with only 10,805 cars registered, marking a 14% decline compared to the previous quarter. This downward trend is not limited to Luxembourg, as new car sales across the European Union fell by 18.3% in August, reaching their lowest level in three years. Major markets like Germany, France, and Italy experienced double-digit declines, and sales of electric vehicles also decreased. However, in contrast to the broader European trend, the share of electric cars in Luxembourg continues to rise, albeit slowly. Germany saw notable price movements, with a dip from the prior quarter but an overall quarterly rise, indicating a positive price trend. Despite a year-over-year decrease, the quarter-ending price of Insoluble Sulphur in Germany capped a period of rising prices and a positive pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Insoluble Sulphur market in North America experienced a predominantly negative pricing environment. This decline was driven by several key factors. Stable production levels amidst muted demand from key downstream industries, particularly automotive, contributed to downward price pressures. Additionally, lower feedstock Sulphur prices, a result of declining crude oil costs, exacerbated the decline in Insoluble Sulphur prices. The weak economic recovery across global markets further dampened demand, leading to high inventory levels and prompting sellers to offload stocks at reduced rates.
In the USA, the most significant market within North America, the trend was particularly pronounced. The automotive sector, a major consumer of Insoluble Sulphur, showed mixed demand dynamics, with a notable shift towards need-based purchasing due to affordability challenges and elevated financing costs. Seasonal factors also played a role, with the end of the heating season in Europe contributing to lower Natural Gas prices and subsequently reducing production costs for Insoluble Sulphur.
The overall sentiment in the USA was negative, with a marked -3% decline from the previous quarter and a further -2% reduction between the first and second halves of Q2. No major plant shutdowns or disruptions were reported during this period. The quarter concluded with Insoluble Sulphur prices at USD 1668/MT DEL Texas, reflecting the overarching theme of decreasing prices driven by high inventories, subdued demand, and lower feedstock costs.
APAC
The prices of insoluble Sulphur have shown an increasing market trends this quarter due to firm demand from the downstream automobile industry and rise in the prices of feedstock Sulphur. The second half of quarter of 2024 has been challenging for Insoluble Sulphur in the APAC region, with a consistent decline in prices driven by multiple factors. The primary contributors to the bearish trend included weak cost support from feedstock Sulphur, ample inventory levels, and subdued demand from downstream industries, particularly the automotive sector. Additionally, production costs were kept in check by low coal prices, further contributing to declining market prices. Several plant shutdowns, including the notable closure of facilities in the Shandong region, exacerbated the supply scenario, leading to an oversupply and further downward pressure on prices.
In China, the most significant price fluctuations were observed, with Insoluble Sulphur prices reflecting a marked decrease due to similar factors of ample supply and weak demand. Despite active downstream procurement and robust market trading, the overall sentiment remained negative. Seasonal factors and government policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence did little to offset the declining trend.
As the quarter concluded, the price of Insoluble Sulphur FOB Qingdao stood at USD 958/MT. The overall pricing environment in China was decidedly negative, reflecting broader regional trends of declining costs and oversupply amidst tepid demand.”
Europe
In Q2 2024, Insoluble Sulphur prices in Germany showed an upward trend in April due to low inventory levels in the market. However, demand from the downstream automobile sector remained weak. Despite this, supply constraints and rising upstream crude oil prices contributed to higher inventory costs. The Insoluble Sulphur market in Germany experienced bearish sentiments starting in April 2024, but stabilized at the beginning of July 2024. Although upstream crude oil prices rose by 1.43%, increasing Insoluble Sulphur production costs, commodity prices remained steady. Moderate demand from downstream agrochemical enterprises, supported by the agricultural sector's cyclical nature, contributed to market equilibrium.
Additionally, the European market has been dealing with high inflation, which has led to a decline in consumer confidence and a downward trend in the Insoluble Sulphur market. To address this and boost consumer confidence, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented its first rate cut of 0.25% since 2019. This monetary policy adjustment helped halt the market's decline, contributing to the stability observed since mid-June. The combined effects of moderate demand, cyclical agricultural activities, and the ECB's intervention played crucial roles in balancing the Insoluble Sulphur market amidst rising production costs and broader economic challenges.
In terms of economic indicators, Germany's Manufacturing PMI declined in June compared to the previous month, remaining below the threshold level. This decline highlighted the weak performance of the manufacturing sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American region witnessed a significant decrease in Insoluble Sulphur prices. This decline can be attributed to several factors that influenced the market. Weak cost support from feedstock Sulphur played a crucial role in driving down prices. Additionally, the market was affected by elevated inventory levels, which further subdued the growth of the Insoluble Sulphur market. This led to inventories being offered at discounted rates, contributing to the overall decrease in prices.
The USA experienced the maximum price changes in the North American region. Overall trends in the USA market indicated a decreasing sentiment. The quarter saw a negative correlation in price changes, with a recorded percentage change of -4% from the previous quarter in 2024. Furthermore, there was a 3% decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter.
The quarter-ending price for Insoluble Sulphur in the USA market was reported at USD 1690/MT Ex-Mumbai. This reflects the overall downward trend in prices throughout the quarter. The pricing environment for Insoluble Sulphur in the North American region, specifically the USA market, has been pessimistic in Q1 2024.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the APAC region witnessed a consistent decrease in the prices of Insoluble Sulphur. This decline can be attributed to various factors that influenced market prices. Weak cost support from feedstock Sulphur and decreased demand from the downstream industry were the main drivers behind the decreasing prices. Additionally, destocking activities and reduced demand from the international market further contributed to the downward trend.
China experienced the maximum price changes in the region. The overall trend for Insoluble Sulphur prices in China was negative, reflecting a 26% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. The decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 3%, while the price change between the first and second half of the quarter was -4%.
The latest quarter-ending price for Insoluble Sulphur in China was reported at USD 965 per metric ton FOB Qingdao. This price reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market.
Overall, the pricing environment for Insoluble Sulphur in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was characterized by a negative trend, with prices consistently declining. Factors such as weak cost support, reduced demand, and destocking activities influenced market prices, leading to a decrease in Insoluble Sulphur prices.
Europe
This Quarter, the European market reported the prices of Insoluble Sulphur, while the Sulphur market experienced tightening supply chains and increased demand from downstream agrochemical enterprises towards the end of the first quarter of 2024. However, disruptions in the supply chain occurred in the German market due to ongoing Farmer’s Protests and a Nationwide Rail Strike at the beginning of March 2024. These events have exacerbated the challenges faced by Europe's largest economy, already struggling with surging energy costs and rising borrowing costs amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite positive trends in industrial production, construction, and foreign trade earlier in the year, a noticeable economic recovery has yet to materialize due to continued weak domestic demand, high financing costs, and subdued sentiment among private households and companies. Moreover, the German manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase in March 2024 compared to February 2024. However, the reading still indicates a significant deterioration in manufacturing conditions, the most significant in five months, marked by faster declines in employment and stocks of purchases, as well as a steep improvement in supplier delivery times. Although new orders and output experienced slower decreases, the rate of decline in average purchasing costs eased for the fourth consecutive month to the weakest level since March of the previous year. Conversely, average factory gate charges fell at a faster rate, reflecting strong competition for new work in the manufacturing sector.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American region faced a challenging quarter for Insoluble Sulphur in Q4 of 2023. The market was primarily impacted by the high level of inventories, leading to sluggish market growth. Moreover, demand from the downstream tire industry remained subdued, leading to a negative market sentiment.
The procurement of new orders from downstream industries was only on demand basis, leading to limited demand from the international market. The USA, being the primary market for Insoluble Sulphur. The heavy destocking market activity and year-end lower demand from the downstream industry led to a decrease in the prices of Insoluble Sulphur in the USA. The production costs also increased due to rising coal prices, adding to the downward pressure on prices.
The quarter saw moderate to high supply, and the market situation remained stable. The latest/quarter ending price of Insoluble Sulphur in DEL Texas was USD 1712/MT in the USA. Despite the challenging quarter, the sustained demand from downstream markets, particularly the rubber industry, is expected to continue to exert pressure on overall demand in the upcoming period.
APAC
The APAC region's Insoluble Sulphur market remained stable in Q4 2023, with adequate inventory levels in the market. Heavy destocking market activity led to lower prices for Insoluble Sulphur. The manufacturing sector's contraction in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November in Malaysia and India resulted in low to moderate demand. China witnessed a decline in prices due to a decrease in demand from the downstream industry and elevated inventory levels in the market. Moreover, the increasing prices of feedstock sulphur in China led to higher import prices of Insoluble Sulphur. The Chinese automotive industry's positive developments and increased international investment contributed to improved downstream procurement and smooth shipping processes. The quarter witnessed no plant shutdowns. In China, the trend, seasonality, and correlation price percentage in Q4 2023 were -3%, with a -21% percentage change from the last year's same quarter and a -8% percentage change from the previous quarter. The price percentage comparison of the first and second half of the quarter in China was -4%. The latest price of Insoluble Sulphur FOB Qingdao in China in Q4 2023 was USD 982/MT.
Europe
Insoluble sulphur prices in Europe experienced a mixed and volatile Q4 2023, ultimately ending flat to slightly lower compared to Q3. The main drivers included weakening demand from key user industries like rubber and tire manufacturing, leading to downward pressure on prices. Ample supply, with sufficient inventory levels and stable production capacity, contributed to overall price stability. Despite fluctuating seaborne oil prices, a key factor, remaining in a moderate range limited significant cost-driven price changes. Global economic uncertainty and potential recessionary fears added to market volatility. Regional variations were observed, with Western & Central Europe seeing generally stable to slightly higher prices due to higher transportation costs and concentrated demand. Eastern Europe, in contrast, had generally lower to flat prices due to closer proximity to production facilities and less concentrated demand. The impact on downstream industries resulted in stable or slightly lower prices, benefiting users like rubber and tire manufacturers, particularly those facing cost pressures. For insoluble sulphur producers, mixed price movements likely influenced profitability, contingent on production costs and hedging strategies.
