For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region witnessed a significant uptrend in Hexene prices QoQ, particularly in the USA, where the market experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations. The quarter was characterized by a multitude of factors influencing market dynamics. Supply constraints due to plant shutdowns, such as Chevron Phillips Olefins Unit closure, led to a reduction in Hexene availability, driving prices upwards. Strong overseas demand, notably from China, further contributed to the price surge as Chinese LLDPE and HDPE downstream sectors showed robust growth. Additionally, resilient domestic production in the USA played a role in maintaining price momentum.
Compared to the same quarter last year, Hexene prices ended 23% lower this year, reflecting a deflationary trend. The quarter-on-quarter comparison within 2024 revealed a 4% price hike, indicating a steady upward trajectory. The quarter concluded with Hexene FOB Texas in the USA priced at USD 1850/MT, marking a substantial appreciation.
Overall, the pricing environment for Hexene in Q3 2024 in North America, particularly the USA, can be described as significantly positive, driven by a combination of supply constraints, strong demand, and consistent production levels.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable decrease in Hexene prices, influenced by several key factors. Market conditions were primarily affected by oversupply, subdued demand, and lower trading activities. The decrease in prices was particularly pronounced in China, where the market saw significant fluctuations. The quarter recorded the ending price being 1.6% higher from the same period last year and a 4% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. Notably, the prices peaked in August and thereafter indicate a downward trend in pricing. The latest quarter-ending price for Hexene CFR Nanjing in China was USD 1810/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Seasonality and correlation in price changes played a significant role in shaping the market dynamics, with demand remaining subdued and supply levels outstripping consumption. Downstream LLDPE and HDPE plants in APAC saw multiple outages driven partially due to mechanical failures and partially due to higher stocks. The pricing environment in the region has been largely negative, driven by a combination of global economic factors and regional market conditions.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Hexene pricing landscape in Europe with a mixed sentiment, influenced by various factors. The market saw stability due to ample supply, moderate demand, and consistent feedstock prices. Hexene prices in Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes, reflected the overall market trends. The quarter ended with prices 24% lower from the same period last year, indicating deflationary pressure. Moreover, a 2% decline from the previous quarter ending price in 2024 demonstrated a slight decline in pricing dynamics. Throughout the quarter, prices remained consistent, with no significant fluctuations between the first and second halves. This stability was evident in the quarter-ending price of USD 2250/MT for Hexene CFR Hamburg in Germany. The quarter can also be characterized by mixed sentiment with prices peaking at USD 2320/MT CFR Hamburg basis in August’s assessment driven by high freight charges especially from Korean supply. The pricing environment for Hexene in Europe during Q3 2024 was characterized by stable sentiment, with market conditions supporting a balanced and predictable pricing structure.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Hexene pricing landscape in the MEA region witnessed a mixed trend. The market dynamics were influenced by robust demand from various sectors, including the petrochemical industry, coupled with tight supply conditions. This surge in demand was further accentuated by the stabilization of feedstock prices, particularly ethylene, which bolstered the overall pricing environment for Hexene. Additionally, the region experienced heightened trading activities and improved economic conditions, leading to a positive pricing sentiment. Within Saudi Arabia, the price fluctuations were most pronounced, with significant changes observed throughout the quarter. Despite a 27% decline in the ending prices for the quarter compared to the previous year, the quarter saw a notable recovery with a +1% change since the beginning of the quarter. Moreover, the second half of the quarter witnessed a 2% decline in prices, indicating a mixed trend. The quarter culminated with the latest price of USD 1690/MT for Hexene-1 FOB Al-Jubail in Saudi Arabia, reflecting a mixed trajectory. Overall, the pricing environment in Saudi Arabia exhibited a positive shift, aligning with the broader trend of increasing prices in the MEA region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Hexene market in North America demonstrated a notable upward pricing trajectory, with several critical factors driving this increase. The quarter was marked by heightened feedstock costs, particularly ethylene and ethane, which exerted substantial pressure on Hexene prices. This was compounded by supply constraints, as key production facilities experienced shutdowns, reducing overall availability. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and the anticipation of hurricane season further tightened the supply chain, exacerbating cost pressures. The market also saw significant forward purchasing and inventory build-up by downstream industries, such as HDPE and LLDPE producers, in response to high crude and natural gas prices.
Focusing on the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend for Hexene prices was bullish. Seasonal factors, such as the Memorial Day demand surge, combined with strategic stockpiling, drove prices upward. Despite a -25% decline compared to the same quarter last year due to previous market depressions, the current quarter saw a 12% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. This reflects a robust recovery and optimistic market sentiment. The price shift between the first and second half of the quarter was notable at 7%, underscoring the impact of mid-quarter supply disruptions and heightened demand.
As the quarter concluded, Hexene prices in the USA reached USD 1800/MT FOB Louisiana, a clear indicator of the market's upward momentum. The pricing environment has been predominantly positive, driven by strong demand, constrained supply, and escalating feedstock costs, all contributing to an increasingly bullish market sentiment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Hexene market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline, influenced by multiple factors that significantly impacted market prices. This quarter has seen a considerable decrease in Hexene prices, primarily driven by an oversupply of key feedstocks such as ethylene and naphtha. The abundant supply has put downward pressure on prices, exacerbated by reduced inventory levels as producers aim to cut costs. Additionally, the global economic environment has contributed to declining prices, with inflationary pressures and fluctuating crude oil prices playing crucial roles. A slowdown in downstream demand from sectors such as consumer and industrial electronics, as well as construction, has further dampened market sentiment. Focusing on South Korea, the country has witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Overall trends indicate a persistent decrease, aligned with seasonal variations and a correlation with broader economic indicators. The Hexene market in South Korea has seen a -12% change compared to the same quarter last year, and a -6% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. There is also a -4% price difference between the first and second halves of the quarter, reflecting a continuous downward trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for Hexene FOB Busan is assessed at USD 2030/MT. The pricing environment has been predominantly negative throughout the quarter, influenced by the oversupply and weakened demand, leading to a consistent decrease in Hexene prices. This negative sentiment is reflected in the substantial percentage changes, underscoring the challenging market conditions for producers and suppliers in the APAC region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Hexene market in Europe experienced a marked downturn, primarily driven by a confluence of supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand patterns. The persistent high freight charges, compounded by port congestions and geopolitical tensions, notably internal supply chain disruption due to flooding in Rhine valley region led to decline in consumption of Hexene and other intermediate, leading to an overall bearish sentiment. Shipping constraints and elevated transportation costs from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers further exacerbated this scenario. Additionally, the European market faced internal pressures from weak downstream demand, particularly in sectors such as construction and consumer electronics, which traditionally bolster Hexene consumption. In Germany, the Hexene pricing scenario reflected these broader regional trends but manifested more acutely. The country's market saw significant price declines, influenced heavily by seasonal fluctuations and demand dynamics. The summer season typically sees a construction boom, but flooding and adverse weather conditions in key areas like the Rhine Valley disrupted this trend, leading to decreased demand and operational challenges for downstream LLDPE and HDPE producers. The resulting oversupply in the market led to an overall negative pricing environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, Hexene prices plummeted by 22%, indicating a substantial year-over-year decline. This trend persisted from the previous quarter of 2024, with a 6% decrease in prices, underscoring the ongoing market weakness. The first half of Q2 witnessed a 5% price drop compared to the second half, further highlighting the consistent downward pressure. The quarter-ending price for Hexene CFR Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 2300/MT, a stark indicator of the negative pricing trend. Overall, the Hexene market in Q2 2024 was characterized by a predominantly negative pricing environment, driven by extensive supply-side constraints and weak downstream demand.
MEA
In Q2 2024, Hexene pricing in the MEA Region experienced a decline, driven primarily by an oversupply situation and geopolitical tensions impacting logistical routes. The quarter was characterized by bearish market sentiment, with higher production levels outstripping demand. Key factors contributing to this price erosion included a deflation in upstream ethylene prices due to a glut in production and a marked increase in freight charges that added cost pressures. Additionally, the market's cautious trading activities and the ongoing geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf further exacerbated the situation, leading to hesitancy among shipping companies and a consequential rise in lead times for deliveries. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, which witnessed the most significant price adjustments, the overall trend for Hexene prices was decidedly negative. The seasonality factor played a crucial role, with the impending Hajj pilgrimage expected to ease production hours, thereby reducing inventory levels. This period also saw a correlation with higher costs of crude and gas in the preceding months, maintaining elevated feedstock prices. Compared to the same quarter last year, Hexene prices have plummeted by a staggering 32%, and compared to the previous quarter in 2024, there was a 4% reduction. The first half of Q2 exhibited a 5% price drop when juxtaposed with the latter half, indicative of a continuous downward trajectory. The quarter concluded with the price of Hexene-1 FOB Al-Jubail in Saudi Arabia settling at USD 1670/MT. This consistent decrease underscores a predominantly negative pricing environment, reflecting the complex interplay of supply overhang, logistical issues, and seasonal production adjustments, all contributing to the downward trend in Hexene prices in the MEA Region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Hexene market in the North America region, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Several factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been a decline in demand for Hexene, particularly in the polyethylene sector, due to oversupply and reduced consumption in industries such as construction, automotive, and electronics manufacturing. Additionally, the market has been impacted by supply tightening, with suppliers reducing their stockpiles to meet lower demand.
In the USA, which has seen the most significant price changes, Hexene prices have decreased by 36% compared to the previous quarter. This decline is consistent with the overall trend in the market, as prices have been decreasing throughout the quarter. The percentage change from the same quarter last year is even more significant, standing at -37%, indicating a substantial drop in prices over the past year. Looking at the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, there has been a 3% decrease, further highlighting the downward trend in Hexene prices. The latest quarter-ending price for Hexene FOB Louisiana in the USA is USD 1520/MT, reflecting the negative pricing environment.
Overall, the Hexene market in the North America region, and specifically in the USA, has experienced a significant decrease in prices during the first quarter of 2024. The market has been negatively impacted by lower demand, oversupply, and supply tightening, leading to a downward price trend.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Hexene market in Europe, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Several factors have influenced the market prices, including strong stockpiling and limited supply. The Red Sea traffic disruptions and the observance of Ramadan in the Middle East have contributed to the supply constraints. Additionally, the European demand for Hexene has been strong, particularly in industries such as automotive and electronics. However, overall demand has remained subpar in the Asian market.
In Germany, the price changes have been more pronounced. Hexene prices have decreased by 14% compared to the previous quarter and by 4% compared to the same quarter last year. The country has been facing supply challenges due to shipping container shortages and rail strikes. The construction and automotive sectors, which are major consumers of Hexene-derived products, have been affected by high interest rates and reduced subsidies for energy-efficient transitions. Despite these challenges, the quarter-ending price of Hexene CFR Hamburg in Germany was recorded at USD 2500/MT.
Overall, the pricing environment for Hexene in Europe during the first quarter of 2024 has been negative, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. The market has been affected by supply constraints, weak demand in certain sectors, and external factors such as shipping disruptions and global inflation concerns.
Asia Pacific
Hexene prices in the APAC region witnessed a downward trend in Q1 2024. Several factors contributed to the decrease in market prices. Export demand from Europe and Asia decreased, leading to lower prices. Additionally, there was an increase in the supply of ethylene and naphtha, key feedstocks for Hexene production. Challenges such as limited tanker availability and container shortages at Chinese ports also impacted pricing.
South Korea, in particular, experienced significant price changes during this period. The market saw a decrease of 2% compared to the same quarter last year and a decline of 5% from the previous quarter in 2024. There was a slight increase of 2% in prices between the first and second half of the quarter.
Overall, the pricing environment for Hexene in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices decreasing throughout the quarter. The latest price recorded at the end of the quarter was USD 2220/MT of Hexene FOB Busan in South Korea. The decrease in prices can be attributed to various factors, including decreased export demand, increased supply, and logistical challenges. The market sentiment remained bearish, with limited procurement activities and subdued demand.
Middle East and Africa
Hexene prices in the MEA region experienced a downward trend in Q1 2024. This decrease can be attributed to various factors that influenced market prices. In Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the region, prices saw significant changes. Overall, the trend in prices was negative, reflecting a decrease of 19% compared to the same quarter last year. In comparison to the previous quarter in 2024, prices declined by 16%.
Several factors contributed to this decline in prices. One significant factor was the seasonal slowdown in demand, particularly in Europe and Asia, where festivities dampened procurement activities. Additionally, the shipping industry faced challenges, with shipping companies avoiding the Red Sea due to conflicts, leading to longer shipping routes and increased costs. This situation impacted on the CIF prices and further discouraged buyers. A jump in secured contracts over volatile spot markets was observed, forcing suppliers to secure future supply from Middle East. The price changes within the quarter also showed a clear trend. Prices in the first half of the quarter were higher than in the second half, indicating a decrease in market sentiment. The overall sentiment in the pricing environment was negative, with prices experiencing a stable to decreasing trend.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Hexene-1 FOB Al-Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 1890/MT. This price reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market and the challenges faced by the industry during this period.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Prices of hexene showed a bearish sentiment in Q4 FY2023. Feedstock ethylene and energy prices followed bearish sentiment in the given timeframe amidst strong US crude and gas production. Supply of hexene largely remained domestic with oversupply sentiments. Ethylene markets remained bearish largely due to oversupply and negative feedstock pressures.
Demand from downstream Polyethylene grades remained muted due to weak consumption triggered by rising interest rates by US Federal reserve leading to high inventory stocks across the value chain of PE products. Retail consumption continued to show resilience despite high interest rates while October mortgage rates further slowed down demand. Winter situation arrived late in December with requirements for hexene/ethylene copolymer built heating systems remaining on the lower end. As inflation soared again in December, major suppliers have been reducing their inventory stocks further as US Federal Reserve signaled late rate.
Construction market is showing gradual signs of recovery in USA with mortgage rates falling and consumers showing willingness for newer houses. By the end of December, demand for hexene slowed down further amidst rising uncertainty as Suez Crisis deepened forcing downstream polyethylene producers to reduce operating volumes as supply tightened coupled with slowing of demand as interest rates and fear of inflation dominated the market players tactical buying strategies.
Europe
Prices of hexene showed a bearish sentiment in Q4 FY2023. Feedstock pressures continued to remain negative largely due to US and Chinese overproduction keeping up the supply of hexene. INEOS and LyondellBasell oligomers continue to run at lower operating capacities as downstream demand for hexene/ethylene copolymer slowed down largely on the back of lower automobile and construction demand in the given timeframe. In the given quarter, feedstock ethylene began their bearish trend by falling down by 8% in the given timeframe since the beginning of the quarter. Supply of Ethylene was largely domestic with substantial imports from US and Middle East to stabilize the pricing. Till December, the market players observed weaker demand due to high inventories of hexene/ethylene copolymer due to lower heating demand. HCOB Germany construction PMI index continues to show contraction in the entire quarter. Similar contractions occurred in Italy, Belgium, Netherlands in construction sector. hexene demand from energy efficient and renewable renovations fell drastically amidst as major Eurozone countries reduced subsidies for transitioning into energy efficient construction sector. Furthermore, Natural gas volumes in Europe remained on the higher end to satisfy the quarter demand forcing destocking of Natural gas by Europe pulling down feedstock prices. Major crackers across Europe underwent downturn maintenance in the given week which balanced falling demand significantly pulling down the market prices. In December, supply chain started tightening globally due to Suez Canal crisis and lower navigability of riverine logistics further slowing down Europe’s capacities for Q4FY24. Consumer demand remained lower on a Q-o-Q basis. With European nations reducing subsidies for transition comes to an end on January 1 FY24, elevated temperatures for the winter season till December, demand for hexene is anticipated to remain subdued till the first half of FY24.
Asia Pacific
Prices of hexene turned bearish sentiment in Q4 FY2023. Prices declined by 8% from the beginning of quarter till 29th December 2023. Feedstock ethylene prices showed mixed sentiment with prices remaining stable in the months of October and November with prices declining in the month of December. Chinese demand for downstream polyethylene viz-a-viz hexene/ethylene copolymers remained on the lower end on the back of lower demand sentiment as construction demand, lower demand for conventional passenger vehicles due to higher fuel prices in APAC region kept demand for hexene low. Chinese continued to expand hexene volumes with PetroChina’s plant 500,000 tons/year into the global output of hexene. South Korean, Japan’s domestic market continued for hexene largely driven by automotive demand which remained subdued due to lower global exports. APAC North America trade for hexene showed marginal improvements largely driven by improvement in US markets due to improved sales of automobiles as fuels prices deflated significantly in North America. APAC regions continue to show improvement in the volumes. In the South Korean markets, domestic demand for hexene remained low largely due to subdued construction and lower automobile demand as interest rates remained on the higher end. Export orders of hexene derived goods to European markets remained on the lower end due to seasonal slump with the quarter ending with supply disruptions and further falling export demand due to high CIF charges.
Middle East Asia
The Q4 2023 for Hexene has witnessed a bearish trend due to oversupply and weak demand sentiments in the global market, leading to a decrement in prices by 3.8%. The supply side remained moderate, and no plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter. Saudi Arabia has shown the most significant changes in prices, with a decline of 4% in the first week of November 2023. The trend of Hexene prices in Saudi Arabia is bearish, with low to moderate supply levels, and the latest price is USD 1666/MT FOB Al-Jubail. The main reasons for the decline in prices were oversupply, weak economic recovery of China, deglobalization in Europe and Americas, steady inflationary pressure, and lower festive demand sentiments in India. The Israel Hamas conflict has also provided headwinds, leading to weaker demand sentiments for 1-hexene. The demand situation for Hexene is expected to remain muted as companies hold for Q4 estimates, and the feedstock market is anticipated to turn bullish as restocking operations are anticipated with major corporations declaring major results. In conclusion, the Hexene market has been bearish in Q4 2023 due to oversupply and weak demand sentiments, with Saudi Arabia showing the most significant price changes.
