For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region experienced a significant decline in Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) prices, driven by several key factors. A balance in supply, coupled with diminished demand from crucial sectors such as aerospace, particularly due to disruptions in Boeing’s production and airline safety concerns, exerted downward pressure on prices.
These issues negatively impacted both orders and deliveries during the period, resulting in reduced AEM consumption. Conversely, the automotive sector displayed moderate performance, providing some support to overall demand. In the USA, where the most notable price fluctuations occurred, the pricing landscape followed a broader decreasing trend. Seasonal fluctuations and the influence of global economic conditions contributed to these price movements.
The quarter saw a 0.5% increase from the previous quarter, continuing a consistent downward trajectory, while reflecting a 1.71% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. At the end of the quarter, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 FOB USGC in the USA was USD 13,350/MT, highlighting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
APAC
During Q3 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in the APAC region saw stable prices, with India reflecting the most notable price changes. Several factors influenced market prices, including balanced supply and demand dynamics and the overall importing price dynamics from the major exporter in the US market. Major economies in Asia, particularly China, Japan, and India, experienced positive demand from the downstream markets, especially in the automotive and aerospace sectors, which significantly supported overall AEM demand in the asian region. The market recorded a slight 0.64% increase compared to the previous quarter, alongside a 0.47% decrease from the same quarter last year, indicating a steady pricing environment. Seasonal trends and industry correlations helped maintain price stability throughout the quarter. Although notable plant shutdowns led to temporary supply chain disruptions, they did not significantly affect overall market stability. By the end of the quarter, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 CFR JNPT in India reached USD 1,176.68/MT, underscoring the prevailing stable pricing sentiment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the pricing environment for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) in Europe experienced a consistent decline of 0.70%. This decrease was mainly attributed to reduced demand in key sectors like automotive, coupled with ongoing global economic uncertainties. Despite this, positive demand from the aerospace sector continued to bolster overall AEM consumption which marked as the key factor in balancing the pricing dynamics of the AEM. Furthermore, supply chain disruptions—caused by tensions along shipping routes and lower supplier performance—added to the negative pricing trend. The Netherlands saw the most significant price changes during the quarter. Overall, the pricing trend displayed a negative correlation with earlier periods, underscoring the challenging market conditions. The quarter recorded a 0.47% price increase compared to the previous quarter, but a decrease of 0.82% when compared to the same quarter last year. By the end of the quarter, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) in the Netherlands reached USD 14,100/MT CFR Rotterdam, marking the culmination of the modest downward pricing sentiment throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in North America experienced a downward pricing trend, primarily driven by several critical factors. A significant surge in feedstock prices, notably Ethylene and Acrylic Acid, placed marked pressure on AEM production costs. This quarter saw an increased demand from the automotive sector, which exhibited robust growth despite some contractions in aerospace. Furthermore, supply constraints due to ongoing Long Buildup activities among suppliers exacerbated the price increases.
The Panama Canal's draught restrictions also contributed to supply chain disruptions, adding to the logistical challenges faced by the market. Seasonal factors played a role, with Q2 typically experiencing elevated demand due to increased manufacturing activities. The price trend for the quarter showed an overall increase when compared to the previous quarter, which had recorded a decline of 1.8%.
Notably, the quarter concluded with the price of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 FOB USGC in the USA reaching USD 13400/MT. This reflects a positive pricing environment throughout Q2 2024, marked by consistent increases influenced by feedstock costs, supply chain dynamics, and robust downstream demand, particularly from the automotive sector.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region experienced a marginal price decrease. The continuous climb in Ethylene prices, driven by Long Buildup activities, exacerbated production costs for AEM, thereby influencing the overall market pricing of AEM from April to June. The supply chain encountered disruptions due to tight inventories and supplier activities aimed at inventory accumulation, which also played a crucial role in driving prices higher. Focusing on India, the market witnessed the most significant price changes within the APAC region. The Indian market's pricing dynamics were heavily influenced by robust downstream demand from the automobile and aerospace sectors. The surge in manufacturing activities and positive business confidence contributed to the rising demand for AEM. The percentage change from the previous quarter was recorded at -2%, indicating a reversal trend in Q2, while the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 1% increase, underscoring the consistent upward trajectory. The overall trends in India were marked by a positive pricing environment, reflecting strong market fundamentals and heightened demand pressures. As of the quarter's end, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 CFR JNPT in India stood at USD 1175013/MT, indicating a robust market response to the prevailing economic conditions.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in Europe experienced notable price decreases, driven by several significant factors. The downward trend in AEM pricing was primarily influenced by lower demand from the automotive and other manufacturing sectors in the European market, coupled with increased freight charges and higher feedstock costs. Notably, the adequate supply conditions due to higher inventory availability and logistical bottlenecks further exacerbated the price fluctuations. The price of AEM in Germany saw a notable decrease compared to the first half of the quarter, evidencing a 2% decrease. In contrast with the lower economic performance the Aerospace sector demand has supported the price of the AEM to some extent from falling further. Furthermore, the market faced no disruptions due to occasional plant shutdowns in the respective period. Despite a -2% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024, the pricing sentiment remained largely positive throughout Q2. The quarter-ending price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 CFR Hamburg in Germany was USD 14190/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the USA, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market witnessed an upward price trend amidst sectoral shifts. The automotive sector displayed resilience, evidenced by the sale of 3,797,420 units, signaling 2.83% decline from previous quarter but increasing month on month growth. Conversely, the aerospace sector faced challenges, notably with Boeing's decision to limit 737 productions due to heightened regulatory scrutiny and safety concerns.
The decline in Boeing's 737 MAX jetliner production adversely affected the aerospace industry, exacerbated by the Federal Aviation Administration's production cap and ongoing safety issues. However, the construction sector continued to outperform in the respective quarter. Despite these challenges, the AEM Rubber market in the USA experienced a price uptick, reaching 9660 USD/MT FOB-USGC, marking a significant 0.11% increment in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023.
This price incline is attributed to various factors, including steady demand from the automotive sector and in the other manufacturing sector, highlighting the market's resilience amidst sectoral challenges in the aerospace market. Additionally, support from overseas markets like Mexico, Brazil, and Canada further bolstered the price trend of AEM Rubber in the respective quarter, highlighting the market's resilience amidst sectoral challenges.
APAC
The AEM Rubber market in the APAC region witnessed an inclining phase in the current quarter of 2024 (Q1) from January to March. The overall market situation was positive, with adequate supply in the downstream market. However, the Indian market notably outperformed during this period, indicating regional disparities in demand dynamics. In the Automobile market total 1187081 Units of Automobile manufactured in this Quarter marking a robust sale in this respective period. Nevertheless the Chinese market also witnessed positive economic activities after the Lunar Year holidays which has counterbalanced the decline demand for the Holidays sessions. Totally 6717000 Units of Automobile sold in this quarter in the Chinese market which is comparatively lower as compared to the previous quarter. However the aerospace market is also underperforming in the Chinese market. However in the Indian market, the activeness in the Indian government witnessed in the Aerospace sector. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd the Indian Aerospace company as of March 31, 2024, has huge order books, with additional major orders expected during FY 2024-25. Japan on the other hand replicated the overall Asian market scenario being the major exporter of the AEM Rubber in the Asian market. As of this quarter ending the price of the AEM Rubber halted at 17060 USD/MT CFR-JNPT marking an increment of 0.10% in this quarter.
Europe
In the European market the price of the AEM Rubber witnessed a challenging scenario in Q1 2024. From the previous quarter the price has shown drastic fall which has resulted into a retracement from the supplier’s end. The suppliers managed the inventories levels with respect to the witnessed demands from the core sectors which has not impacted majorly in the price trend in this quarter. However, amidst these factors, the downstream automobile market demonstrates resilience with a total of 694,825 units sold, albeit marking a 1.66% decline from the previous quarter's 706,543 units in Q3 2023. Despite challenges, this positive performance underscores the steady demand for automobiles in the region. Nevertheless, in the Aerospace sector market total 142 deliveries to 45 customers given from the major Aircraft maker Airbus in this quarter. The safety issue in the USA Aircraft maker Boeing’s aircraft has significantly impacted positively on the European aircraft maker Airbus market which has thereby influenced the demand for the various commodities including AEM Rubber in the European market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market witnessed an upward trend. Despite overall market stability, various factors influenced pricing dynamics. Notably, the US automotive industry displayed signs of recovery, marked by robust new vehicle sales and a rebound in the construction sector.
This generated a moderate to high demand for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer in the US market. Conversely, challenges faced by the European automotive and construction industries resulted in comparatively lower to moderate demand for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer in that region. The US automobile sector experienced a notable month-on-month increase, reaching 15.8 million units (annualized), and the Construction sector, with implications for Electrical Wire and Cable, demonstrated robust performance.
Despite the mixed demand from major importing countries and disruptions in the supply and demand chain, prices surged. Throughout the quarter, the supply of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer remained at a moderate level. Additionally, the market encountered vessel draft limitations in the Panama Canal, leading to congestion and shipping delays. In the US market, the price of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer concluded at USD 16680/MT FOB USGC, marking an increase of 1.70%.
APAC
As the fourth quarter of 2023 concluded, Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) prices in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region demonstrated a bullish trend, primarily influenced by a moderate supply despite substantial demand from the automotive sector across Asian countries. The limited number of producers in the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer market has consistently made the supply chain a focal point for discussions, contributing to the continuous rise in prices. In APAC, particularly in the Indian market, robust sales were experienced in this quarter, with the construction sector outperforming, especially in December. Suppliers concurrently increased their ex-quotation prices this month, leading to the upsurge in the price of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer. The supply of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer in the market consistently remained at a low to moderate level, influenced by lower industrial production and a reduced number of exporters, contributing to the ongoing accumulation of inventories. This strategic accumulation aims to meet anticipated future demands. Disruptions in overall shipping routes have affected the supply and demand ratio in the market. As of this quarter's conclusion, the price of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer stood at 14432 USD/MT CFR-JNPT, marking an incline of 4.27%.
Europe
As the fourth quarter of 2023 concluded, Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) prices in Europe displayed a bullish trend, primarily driven by low supply and subdued demand from the automotive sector. The continuous decline in crude oil prices aided in managing production costs from major producing countries. However, heightened geopolitical tensions across the Red Sea significantly contributed to increased importing costs during the period. Major shipping companies rerouting their routes led to port congestion this quarter, adding to the challenges. Despite maintaining a well-balanced supply and demand, resulting in limited material availability, the market experienced minimal price fluctuations throughout the quarter. Germany's long-term interest rates declined to stabilize retailer consumption, impacting not only the automotive sector but also various other industries. The anticipated rise in energy and other utilities costs globally during the winter, coupled with the overall economic contraction in Europe and lower inventory stockpiles, resulted in a price increase this quarter. The Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer price at the end of this quarter stood at 17270 USD/MT CFR-Hamburg, marking an incline of 1.64%.
