For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 for Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) in North America witnessed a challenging market environment characterized by decreasing prices. Several significant factors influenced market prices during this period. Supply pressure due to lower demand from downstream industries, particularly the packaging sector, led to a global oversupply of EVOH. Weak consumer spending sentiment, high borrowing rates, and decreased production costs further contributed to the declining prices.
Despite previous market expectations of a demand pickup in September, driven by buyers preparing for the winter holidays, demand has remained consistently slow. This has put sustained pressure on the EVOH market, with overall market transactions remaining low which led producers to lower their offer levels, further contributing to the price slump during September 2024.
In the USA, the market experienced the most significant price changes, with a notable -4% decrease from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with EVOH priced at USD 8100/MT FOB Texas in the USA, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment in the pricing environment.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) market in the APAC region, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Various factors have contributed to this trend, including oversupply in the market and reduced demand from downstream industries. These challenges have led to a bearish market sentiment, impacting pricing dynamics. In Japan, the market has seen the most significant price changes, reflecting the overall downward trend in the region. Japan's EVOH prices have been influenced by similar factors, with lower production costs due to low priced feedstock ethylene vinyl acetate and weak demand contributing to the price decline. The correlation between these factors and the price changes has been evident throughout the quarter, showcasing a consistent negative trend. Additionally, the price change from the previous quarter in 2024 recorded at -5% highlights the ongoing downward trajectory. The quarter-ending price of USD 7950/MT of Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer FOB Osaka in Japan reflects the overall decreasing pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) market in Europe experienced a significant downtrend due to reduced purchasing power amid high energy costs and economic slump. Despite certain logistical challenges, the price of ethyl vinyl alcohol copolymer (EVOH) in France showed a declining trend in July 2024. Overproduction of EVOH occurred globally during this period due to lower production costs from an excess of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and weak demand from the downstream packaging sector led to price slump. The summer holiday season and the poor economic conditions throughout Europe severely reduced demand in August as the recovery of demand in September has not gone as smoothly as anticipated. The global ease in freight charges has provided some respite to the supply chain further impacting the EVOH market. Additionally, the buying appetite for import material has also been minimal, as there is no arbitrage from Asia registered despite storms and Typhoon during September 2024. European EVOH makers remain well-supplied domestically, further limiting the need for imports during this timeframe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) exhibited a mixed trend, from bullishness toward bearishness. Previously, due to the market's booming cosmetics sector, the EVOH market saw a significant demand for cosmetic packaging. According to Circana, U.S. beauty sales increased by $600 million in Q1 2024. Mass sales grew by 2%, whereas prestige sales increased by 9%.
In the meantime, the market encountered a moderate level of stock availability, which was brought on by the moderate operating rates at production facilities. This was mainly because there was a restricted supply of feedstock and steady offtakes from importers and buyers. As a ripple effect, several manufacturers have raised their offerings which led to a strong price trend for EVOH during April 2024.
However, the market declined during June 2024 amidst a low demand from the downstream packaging sector. Despite the typical seasonal uptick in demand for packaging applications, prices remained low due to ample stockpiles and muted consumer demand. Inflationary pressures further dampened buying interest, while consistent supply chain disruptions prevented any significant price drops.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) market in the APAC region exhibited a mixed sentiment leading to a downward pricing trend. Previously, the Asian market's booming downstream cosmetics industry drove significant demand for cosmetic packaging in the EVOH market. In Q1, 2024, L'Oréal reported a 6.2% increase in sales. The market, on the other hand, saw intermediate stock availability due to moderate operating rates at manufacturing facilities, which were mostly driven by a shortage of vinyl alcohol feedstock and steady offtakes from importers and buyers. Japan's Producer Price Inflation reached its highest level in four months in April 2024, rising from 0.20% in March to 0.30%. Henceforth, several producers have raised the offered quotations for EVOH during May 2024. However, the quarter's price decline was attributed to subdued demand from the downstream packaging industry, lingering supply chain disruptions, and unanticipatedly high inventory levels during June 2024. Weakening demand was exacerbated by falling ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) spot prices, a crucial feedstock for EVOH production, which subsequently lowered production costs. Persistent logistical issues, such as port congestion and increased freight charges due to the Red Sea situation, further hampered market dynamics, though they were insufficient to offset the overall negative sentiment.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) market in Europe experienced a mixed market sentiment. Previously, the EVOH market in France exhibited a bullish sentiment from the downstream cosmetic sector. However, the trend was lowered in June 2024 due to the ample availability of stocks. The European market's booming cosmetics sector drove significant demand for cosmetic packaging in the EVOH market. With a 7.3% increase in revenue in Q1 2024, Beiersdorf demonstrated impressive growth at the end of April. A provisional agreement has been reached by the European Parliament and Council on legislation aimed at addressing packaging waste and promoting the circular economy. The suggested actions center on enforcing refill rules, establishing reuse targets, boosting the usage of recycled materials in packaging, and establishing sustainability standards. These programs seek to lessen packaging waste and encourage Europe's packaging sector to be more ecologically friendly. However, in June 2024, a primary reason for the downward pressure on prices was the sluggish demand from key downstream industries, including the packaging and bottling sectors. Rising inflation and cautious consumer spending due to economic uncertainties further dampened market sentiment. Additionally, ample stock availability and lower production costs, attributed to decreased ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) feedstock prices, contributed to the negative pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the price trend of Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) fluctuated in the North American region. At the beginning of the first quarter, prices rose marginally due to firm demand from buyers for stocking purposes, driven by increased consumption of food packaging amid rising food demand in the region.
During the mid-quarter, production rates remained steady among producers. However, demand for EVOH decreased in the international market due to cautious buying activities from buyers, leading producers to lower their quotations amid increased stock availability.
The international air cargo market witnessed increased demand for the third consecutive month in March, fuelled by e-commerce expansion and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, impacting air freight rates and supplies to the international market. Towards the end of the first quarter of 2024, the food sector saw a surge in demand for EVOH sheets for packaging purposes, driven by increased consumer orders for the Easter festival in the region. Consequently, suppliers raised their prices to improve their profit margins. At the end of Q1, Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer FOB Texas quotations in the USA were assessed at USD 8670/MT.
APAC
The Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) market displayed mixed sentiments in the APAC region during Q1 2024. At the quarter's outset, prices rose as demand remained strong from buyers for stocking purposes, driven by increased consumption of food packaging ahead of the Lunar New Year and spring festivals in the Asian region, alongside a rise in food prices. Concurrently, production was affected by the limited availability of Ethylene feedstock and upstream supplies. The heightened risks of supply chain disruptions arose amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East following a missile attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Yemen. This incident led to increased ship traffic on ocean routes and impacted Crude Oil supplies by OPEC+. Midway through the quarter, supply availability improved in the regional market due to reduced offtakes from regional buyers like China, as the market was closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. Additionally, the MHLW (Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare) in Japan revised the positive list of substances for use in Food Contact Materials (FCMs). Towards the quarter's end, the food sector demonstrated stable demand for EVOH packing sheets amidst rising temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. In conclusion, Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer FOB Osaka quotations witnessed USD 8630/MT at the end of Q1 2024.
Europe
In the European market, the Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) price trend fluctuated during the first quarter of 2024. Initially, prices rose marginally as demand remained strong from buyers for stocking purposes. Meanwhile, disruptions in production and supply chain activities due to ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties stressed the availability of supplies. Midway through the quarter, orders for EVOH food packaging sheets remained slightly weak in the food sector amid a rise in food inflation. Additionally, the region's new PPWR Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation draft was slated to be finalized by the end of April 2024 and was in the final stages of negotiations. The second and concluding political trilogue regarding PPWR was held in Brussels on March 4, 2024, during which the co-legislators reached a provisional political agreement on the text. In the meeting, EUROPEN's Secretary General expressed appreciation for the efforts made by EU co-legislators to find a balance between ambitious environmental objectives and the pragmatic considerations of implementation within the packaging industry. There was a growing demand for barrier materials that do not impede the circular use of resins like Polyethylene, commonly used as packaging material in commercial applications. Towards the end of the quarter, the food sector exhibited strong demand for EVOH packing sheets amid rising temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and increased consumer orders for the Easter festival in the country. Ultimately, at the end of Q1, Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer FOB Antwerp in Belgium was priced at USD 8720/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American market for Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) witnessed a bearish to stable trend in the fourth quarter of 2023. The price of EVOH decreased by almost 4% in Q4, 2023, compared to the previous quarter. Initially, the demand for EVOH remained low to moderate for the food packaging purposes due to moderate orders for packaged food amid an increase in food inflation in the region.
Additionally, the shift in buyers’ interest towards recyclable materials and reductions in the use of petrochemical based EVOH for food packaging negatively impacted the offtakes. During the mid-quarter, the demand improved slightly from the buyers during due to increased orders for packaged food during the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Meanwhile, the cost support declined from the feedstock Ethylene amid a reduction in the upstream Naphtha and Crude Oil prices after the resumed refinery operations and increased refining capacity in the region. Toward the end of the quarter, demand remained moderate amid stressed supply rates through the Mississippi River. At the end of fourth quarter of 2023, the EVOH FOB Texas prices in the USA hovered at USD 8730/MT.
Asia
In the Asian region, the prices witnessed a decrease of almost 5% during the final quarter compared to the previous quarter of the year. At the beginning of the quarter, the inventories were adequately available in the market, while the cost support declined from the feedstock Ethylene during the month due to reduced offtakes from Glycol industries. This decline was mainly driven by increased inventory levels and declined demand from packaging industries amid switching buyer interest toward recyclable materials and reductions in the use of petrochemical based EVOH for food packaging purposes. In the mid-quarter, the supply of EVOH remained low to moderate during the mid-quarter, as production rates were affected due to the stressed availability of feedstock Ethylene amid the plant shutdown at Eneos Corp. Towards the end of the quarter, demand continued to remain low amid the affected supplies to the buyers due to supply chain disruptions after the Red Sea attacks in the Middle East region. At the end of the quarter, the price for EVOH FOB Osaka in Japan hovered at USD 8660/MT.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by a bearish market for Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) in the European region. The price of EVOH decreased by almost 11% during the quarter compared to the previous quarter of the year. Several factors contributed to this decline in prices. Firstly, there was a decrease in demand from the regional packaging industries amid switching buyer interest toward recyclable materials and reductions in the use of petrochemical based EVOH for food packaging purposes. which led to lower offtakes. Additionally, the cost support from the feedstock Ethylene decreased due to reduced offtakes from Glycol industries and increased availability of inventory. Simultaneously, the decline in prices of the feedstock Vinyl Alcohol also impacted the production costs of EVOH. Towards the end of the quarter, the orders for EVOH sheets were stable from the food sector as the EU council agreed on the PPWR- Packaging and Plastic Waste Regulation commitment to reduce and prevent plastic waste and meet targets for 2030 and 2040. At the end of the Q4, 2023 the EVOH FOB Antwerp in Belgium witnessed at USD 8660/MT.
