For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Ethanol Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 13.84% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger blending mandates.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 647/MT on Gulf Coast delivery.
- Ethanol Spot Price softness reflected inventory builds, muted export interest, and weaker refinery blending economics.
- Ethanol Price Forecast remains cautiously bearish near term as ample supply meets moderate blending demand.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend rose on higher maize and fertilizer, tightening margins yet supporting offers.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook supported by policy E15 prospects, but immediate blender uptake remained uneven seasonally.
- Ethanol Price Index showed weekly volatility, combining feedstock cost pushes and fluctuating export arbitrage effects.
- High utilisation and recent debottlenecks expanded output, elevating inventories and pressuring domestic offers during June.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in June 2026 in North America?
- Ample domestic production increased inventories, creating downward pressure despite seasonal gasoline-driven blending demand improvement short-term.
- Higher maize and fertilizer costs raised production expenses, supporting offers but squeezing margins for ethanol producers.
- Export nominations weakened while arbitrage narrowed, reducing overseas demand and increasing competition among domestic suppliers.
Ethanol Prices in APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 17.68% quarter-over-quarter, amid tighter energy logistics.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 809.67/MT, reflecting landed costs pressure.
- Ethanol Spot Price weakened as abundant US and Brazilian parcels swelled Ulsan tanks, pressuring offers.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend rose from firmer maize and freight, offset partly by weaker won.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains firm for electronics and coatings while fuel-blending demand remains modest, however.
- Ethanol Price Forecast shows near-term softness then range-bound behaviour as imports counter feedstock cost rises.
- Ethanol Price Index moderated as anti-dumping measures restrained exports, adding domestic availability and lengthening inventories.
- Coatings, pharma and emerging SAF demand supported buying while traders maintained cautious procurement and inventory.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in June 2026 in APAC?
- Abundant US and Brazilian imports raised port inventory levels, exerting downward pressure on spot offers.
- Lower freight-risk premiums after Gulf reassurance reduced landed costs, easing import-related price pressures in June.
- Subdued fuel-blending and industrial offtake left buyers covering only minimal requirements, limiting demand-driven price support.
China
- In China, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 6.24% quarter-over-quarter, supported by E10 blending volumes.
- Ethanol Spot Price showed subdued movement as inventories rose and coastal blenders maintained cautious buying.
India
- In India, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 1.60% quarter-over-quarter, driven by blending demand and policy.
- Ethanol Spot Price held range-bound as coastal inventories rose and OMC tenders tempered buying interest.
Ethanol Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 12.81% quarter-over-quarter, supported by stronger blending demand and energy costs.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 769.33/MT, reflecting averages and active export flows.
- Ethanol Spot Price weakened as the Price Index drifted lower amid ample imports and subdued domestic buying.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates moderate softening near term given persistent supply surpluses and cautious buyer behaviour.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend eased as corn and energy costs declined, reducing upward pressure on producer margins.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains muted with blenders largely filled, limiting spot purchases despite policy E20 considerations.
- Ethanol Price Index reflects comfortable inventories, import flows and limited freight disruption, keeping spot offers under pressure.
- Port throughput and export arbitrage maintained steady supply into Germany, constraining upward price momentum across spot markets.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in June 2026 in Europe?
- Ample imports and smooth vessel operations increased port stocks, creating supply surplus across Germany and pressuring prices.
- Blenders largely met quotas and reduced spot buying, weakening demand pull for fuel-grade ethanol during June.
- Softening corn and energy costs lowered production expenses, allowing sellers to trim offers and ease spot Ethanol pricing.
Netherlands
- In the Netherlands, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 12.35% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, driven by energy-cost inflation.
- Ethanol Spot Price volatility reflected steady imports and tank congestion, pressuring Rotterdam Price Index and seller margins.
UK (United Kingdom)
- In the UK (United Kingdom), the Ethanol Price Index rose by 13.15% quarter-over-quarter, driven by E10 blending and energy costs.
- Ethanol Spot Price weakened amid ample imports; the Price Index softened as arrivals exceeded blending demand, pressuring offers.
Ethanol Prices in South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 5.28% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, reflecting seasonal supply.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 759/MT amid steady blending demand.
- Ethanol Spot Price weakened amid large harvest flows and port stocks pressuring coastal export availability.
- Ethanol Price Forecast projects near-term softness as mills keep high runs and export nominations ease.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend remained benign as maize FOB eased, trimming variable costs inland distilleries.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook modest; domestic blending mandates support baseline consumption despite sluggish export pull activity.
- Ethanol Price Index shows downward pressure amid abundant stocks and cautious buying across coastal terminals.
- Operational updates noted mills diverting feedstock to sugar, influencing spot availability and tightening export parcels.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in June 2026 in South America?
- Abundant sugarcane crushing increased ethanol output, swelling port stocks and pressuring coastal FOB offers thereby.
- Domestic blending demand remained steady but insufficient to absorb rising supplies, limiting prompt physical uptake.
- Freight and berth availability improved, easing logistics costs; export nominations varied amid global buyer caution.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Ethanol Prices in North America
- In USA, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 5.38% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger supply and softer demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 568.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
- Ethanol Spot Price action tightened late March as inventories declined and export loadings increased materially.
- Ethanol Price Forecast signals modest near-term firmness supported by blending economics and higher feedstock costs.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend shows upward pressure from rising corn prices and elevated energy and logistics expenses.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook improved for gasoline blending while industrial consumption remained steady, supporting balanced offtake.
- Ethanol Price Index movements reflected mixed weekly volatility, with record run rates offset by inventory drawdowns recently.
- Supply interruptions and regional export demand tightened FOB hubs, reinforcing U.S. Ethanol Price Index strength into month end.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in North America?
- Corn feedstock increased, lifting production cash costs and translating to higher delivered ethanol values domestically.
- Inventory draws combined with stronger export loadings tightened physical availability and supported spot improvements recently.
- Higher crude and gasoline futures improved blending economics, incentivising aggressive procurement and underpinning price gains.
Ethanol Prices in APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 0.91% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting steady imports only.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 688.00/MT, per CFR Ulsan assessments.
- Ethanol Spot Price tightened in late March as merchant availability reduced and technical-grade demand increased.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend firmed as maize import costs rose and currency weakness raised costs.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook improved with stronger semiconductor cleaning needs, coatings production and fuel blending increases.
- Ethanol Price Forecast edged higher due to tightening supply, regulatory blending signals and industrial buying.
- Ethanol Price Index turned bullish after Yeochun cracker closure and downstream demand squeezed availability regionally.
- Inventory levels tightened at key ports prompting just-in-time buyers to compete for limited cargo parcels.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Yeochun NCC cracker shutdown reduced synthetic output, tightening supply and prompting importers to seek cargoes.
- Maize feedstock increases and weaker Korean won raised landed costs, supporting import offers in March.
- Stronger semiconductor and coatings demand, plus aviation blending signals, increased offtake and tightened merchant availability.
Ethanol Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 2.80% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer import competition and margins.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 682.00/MT, reflecting weighted spot and contract benchmarks.
- Ethanol Spot Price dynamics showed rangebound trading amid steady imports and normal domestic distillery run rates.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates modest upside risk as blending mandates and geopolitical freight premiums persist.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend remains elevated due to high regional energy tariffs and persistent freight surcharges.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook strengthened because E10 blending mandates and quota timing accelerated merchant purchases and restocking.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility increased as Black Sea constraints raised grain costs, elongating shipping leadtimes and pressure.
- Ethanol Spot Price liquidity tightened late quarter supported by proactive buying while inventories moved toward lower ranges.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Freight surcharges from Black Sea detours tightened feedstock availability and raised delivered ethanol production costs.
- Stricter blending mandates and quota timing accelerated demand, prompting frontloading by refiners and spot purchasing activities.
- Stable domestic plant operations and balanced import flows limited supply shocks despite higher energy and shipping cost pressures.
Ethanol Prices in South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 4.98% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightened export and domestic demand dynamics.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 801.33/MT, reflecting sustained export interest and seasonal supply constraints.
- Ethanol Spot Price movements tightened mid-quarter as corn-ethanol output ramped, reducing immediate spot availability and bids.
- Ethanol Price Forecast for Q2 indicates mixed seasonal pressure, with export demand potentially countering softer domestic blending demand.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend showed upward feedstock influence as maize prices ticked higher, pressuring producer margins modestly.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains supportive from domestic E27 mandate and resilient flex-fuel transport, underpinning baseline offtake.
- Ethanol Price Index showed intra-month volatility, influenced by mills retaining cargoes and intermittent export enquiries.
- Tight inland trucking flows to Santos and steady terminal inventories balanced export liftings, shaping near-term supplier negotiation strength.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in South America?
- Seasonal cane intercrop reduced sugarcane-derived flows, while corn-ethanol partially offset supply shortfall, keeping availability adequate.
- Export enquiries softened in March, weakening overseas offtake even as domestic mandated blending sustained baseline demand.
- Maize feedstock costs rose slightly and shipping considerations modestly increased logistics cost, compressing margins for exporters.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
- In USA, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 1.80% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger domestic supply over demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 635.67/MT, reflecting muted winter blending demand.
- Inventory builds and record plant throughput pressured the Ethanol Spot Price despite pockets of export-driven strength.
- Near-term Ethanol Price Forecast shows modest weakness driven by ample feedstock and seasonal blending demand softness.
- Lower corn costs influenced the Ethanol Production Cost Trend, enabling sustained run rates and marginal producer margins.
- Domestic blending dynamics underpin the Ethanol Demand Outlook, with weaker winter transport activity reducing discretionary offtake.
- Regional logistics improvements limited basis volatility, while Ethanol Price Index volatility reflected changing export flows and inventory swings.
- High export volumes intermittently supported bids, but persistent oversupply and cautious buying kept market participants on sidelines.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in North America?
- Record domestic production increased marketed supply, outpacing winter blending demand and pressuring spot assessments materially.
- Softer corn values reduced production costs slightly, yet RIN credits decline and export uncertainty weighed on buying.
- Improved logistics and unit-train availability eased deliverability issues, enabling inventory builds and dampening price rallies.
APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 1.7% quarter-over-quarter, supply relief outweighed demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 694.33/MT, reflecting import parity levels.
- Ethanol Spot Price softened as ample imports and smoother logistics pressured offers despite semiconductor demand.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates limited near-term downside constrained by operational hydration units and chipmaking requirements.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend eased; cheaper ethane feed and lower freight reduced synthetic production expenses.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains mixed with steady semiconductor uptake but weak beverage and fuel blending.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility reflected alternating import fluxes, cracker feedstock shifts, and stocking by traders.
- Inventory builds at Ulsan terminals and shipments reduced urgency, while exports remained opportunistic amid arbitrage.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Domestic hydration feed restoration and steady imports increased volumes, exerting downward pressure on spot offers.
- Freight moderations and weaker FOB values reduced landed costs despite occasional spikes from origin rotations.
- Off-season beverage consumption and solvent substitution curtailed demand, while semiconductor steady demand partially offset losses.
Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 2.77% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer import competition pressures.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 701.67/MT, reflecting subdued year-end liquidity and balanced inventories.
- Ethanol Spot Price weakness reflected abundant imports and contributed to a lower Price Index amid subdued blending activity.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains muted with discretionary blending curtailed and industrial procurement focusing on short-term needs.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend was stable as feedstock and energy costs remained flat, limiting immediate upward Price Index pressure.
- Ethanol Price Forecast suggests modest range-bound movement as imports rebuild inventories and export demand stays lacklustre.
- Large domestic distilleries operated normally, while Hamburg terminal logistics intermittently influenced the Ethanol Price Index across supply hubs.
- Policy shifts raising GHG quotas and carbon certificate values supported precautionary buying, providing intermittent support to Ethanol Price Index.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Improved import arrivals from US and ARA rebuilt inventories, exerting downward pressure on domestic spot Ethanol availability.
- Year-end discretionary buying slowed, while distributors delayed quota top-ups, reducing immediate demand and softening Price Index.
- Stable feedstock and energy costs removed cost-driven upside, while terminal congestion intermittently constrained regional flows.
South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, supported by stronger blending mandates.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 763.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply and firm demand.
- Ethanol Spot Price volatility eased as harvest logistics improved, coastal FOB offers responded to terminal inventories.
- Ethanol Price Forecast points to mild softening near-term as steady harvest volumes and elevated carryover stocks weigh.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend improved as corn prices moderated and lower domestic freight and energy costs trimmed margins.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains constructive driven by higher blend mandates and surging export nominations to multiple markets.
- Domestic mills including Raízen and BP bioenergy ran at high utilisation, keeping the Ethanol Price Index sensitive.
- Export demand spikes and distributor restocking influenced FOB availability, while port turnarounds moderated short-term Ethanol Spot Price movements.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in South America?
- In December, prices eased as steady cane and corn-ethanol production increased supply, pressuring FOB offers.
- Compressed natural gas discounts and fleet fuel switching reduced ethanol demand, weakening seasonal distributor procurement and spot bids.
- Adequate terminal inventories and eased port congestion allowed producers to lower offers, dampening short-term export arbitrage incentives.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the USA, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 6.07% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting inventory draws nationwide.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 611.67/MT, based on FOB Houston.
- Ethanol Spot Price strengthened in summer as the Ethanol Price Index signaled tighter export-adjusted balances.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates rangebound movement, with upside risk from stronger seasonal blending and exports.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend was lower as abundant corn reduced feedstock-driven cost pressures for producers.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook supportive due to blending mandates and resilient gasoline consumption in driving season.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility was driven by shipment timing, plant outages, and shifting export competitiveness.
- Inventory draws into September tightened availability, amplifying export-related support and limiting domestic downward price pressure.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in North America?
- Seasonal inventory draws and stronger exports tightened domestic availability, lifting Ethanol Price Index in September.
- Ample corn harvest eased production costs, lowering Ethanol Production Cost Trend despite logistical delivery constraints.
- Blending mandates and domestic demand maintained baseline offtake, offsetting inventory builds and moderating price declines.
APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 3.52% quarter-over-quarter, driven by import costs.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 706.67/MT, reflecting import dependency seasonality.
- Ethanol Spot Price volatility reflected freight and feedstock swings, moving the domestic Ethanol Price Index.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook stayed firm thanks to SAF policy, gasoline blending, solvents and pharmaceutical consumption.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend increased as corn prices and naphtha-derived feedstock elevated synthetic, fermentation costs.
- Ethanol Price Forecast expects near-term rangebound action as inventories, imports and freight intermittently influence values.
- Ethanol Price Index upside was capped by inventories and downward arbitrage from abundant U.S. supplies.
- Operational continuity limited disruptions, but intermittent cargo shortages lifted Ethanol Spot Price and softened buying
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Ample U.S. corn supplies reduced feedstock costs, lowering import parity and pressuring landed ethanol values.
- Muted beverage offtake and seasonal slowdown weakened spot demand while baseline fuel blending sustained procurement.
- Freight rate volatility and intermittent cargo shortfalls elevated landed costs, producing episodic upward price pressure.
Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 7.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting logistics-driven supply tightening and strong blending demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 721.67/MT, reflecting terminal differentials and seasonal blending effects.
- Ethanol Spot Price firmed at inland hubs amid berth delays, sustaining a tightening Ethanol Price Index narrative.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend rose as corn costs firmed, pressuring margins and supporting Price Index strength.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains robust from fuel blending and industrial solvents, underpinning spot tightness domestically.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness given logistics constraints and summer blending, though seasonal correction risks persist.
- Elevated yard occupancy and rail disruptions limited exports, reducing available volumes and amplifying Ethanol Spot Price sensitivity.
- Domestic facilities operated with steady runs, while trade measures altered import flows, shaping Ethanol Price Index.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Rail and port bottlenecks constrained inland distribution, raising short-term scarcity and upward pressure on Ethanol Price Index.
- Tighter feedstock availability and higher energy costs increased production costs, lifting the Ethanol Production Cost Trend materially.
- Sustained blending demand and precautionary buying amid import uncertainty strengthened domestic offtake, supporting Ethanol Spot Price resilience.
South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 2.68% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger mandate-driven domestic demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 741.67/MT, reflecting domestic wholesale parity.
- Ethanol Spot Price strengthened as distributors replenished tanks after the E30 blend mandate increased gasoline substitution.
- Ethanol Price Forecast remains cautiously bullish amid sustained domestic uptake and tightening cane-based anhydrous availability.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend showed downward pressure from corn ethanol efficiency gains but cane shortages increased costs.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook improved sharply due to the 30% blending mandate adding substantial incremental annual consumption.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility moderated as inventories fluctuated and logistics remained uninterrupted in export corridors and ports.
- Ethanol market participants cited strengthening domestic procurement and ongoing strategic investments supporting Price Index resilience.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in South America?
- Mandated E30 injected over one billion liters of incremental domestic demand, driving distributor restocking.
- Centre-South cane disruptions tightened anhydrous availability while corn ethanol partly mitigated short-term supply.
- Export nominations and inventory draws tightened spot availability despite uninterrupted logistics, supporting firmer domestic prices.
