For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Q3 2024 saw limited price movements for DBP, with fluctuations contained within a narrow range due to several interacting factors. The U.S. economy sent mixed signals, balancing strength with inflation concerns and geopolitical risks.
Supply conditions were influenced by stable manufacturing output and evolving trade conditions. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufacturing fell slightly from 249.624 in Q2 to 248.383 in Q3, suggesting modest production cost relief. Rebuilding inventories, after earlier drawdowns, contributed to Q2 GDP growth of 3.0%, with 2.7% growth expected for the full year.
Consumer spending and business investments, bolstered by the CHIPS Act and other policies, remained key drivers of demand. Meanwhile, inflation eased, dipping below 3.0% by July. Yet, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with possible import tariffs, created risks for supply chains and trade flows. Although the Fed’s planned rate cuts aim to support spending, uncertainties in labor dynamics and trade policies could weigh on supply conditions into 2025.
Asia
In Q3 2024, DBP prices in India showed a moderate upward trend, driven by seasonal demand, economic recovery, and evolving market dynamics. Prices remained stable at USD 1550/MT (Ex-Mumbai) in both July and August, reflecting balanced supply-demand conditions amid mixed performance across key sectors. While automotive sales fluctuated—passenger vehicle sales declined but two-wheeler sales increased—steady demand from manufacturing, infrastructure, and textiles supported market stability. In September, DBP prices rose by 3%, fueled by peak procurement activities during the festive season. Economists noted that the surge in demand may ease in the coming months as seasonal factors wane, potentially normalizing prices. Global supply chains faced uncertainties from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing disruptions in shipping, though trade between China and India remained unaffected during the quarter. Despite challenges such as monsoon-related construction slowdowns and high inventory levels in certain sectors, Q3 ended on a positive note for DBP, with healthy market sentiment and robust demand across multiple industries. However, stakeholders anticipate potential price corrections post-festive season, given the possibility of cooling consumer sentiment and persisting geopolitical risks.
Europe
European DBP prices fluctuated narrowly throughout Q3 2024 due to lingering economic uncertainties, fueled by the ongoing conflict in West Asia and sluggish growth in the U.S. and Europe. Rising freight costs added to the challenges, with carriers like MSC and CMA CGM raising FAK rates to as high as $6,500 per container amid space constraints and operational fees. Additional disruptions from the Red Sea crisis and Singapore’s port congestion delayed shipments. Air freight rates from Northeast Asia to Europe also climbed sharply, boosted by rising e-commerce sales and semiconductor demand. Despite added capacity, imbalances between outbound and inbound shipments persisted. As geopolitical risks and seasonal demand intensify, freight market volatility is expected to continue into Q4. On the economic side, Germany—the eurozone's largest economy—struggled with weak industrial output, high energy costs, and declining exports, dragging down regional economic performance.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) prices in North America trended downward, driven largely by decreased demand from the construction sector. The housing market experienced a significant slowdown, with sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. dropping to their lowest level in seven months by June. High mortgage rates and rising home prices have dampened demand, impacting the consumption of DBP.
The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported a 0.6% decline in new home sales, adjusting to an annual rate of 617,000 units in June, the weakest performance since November. This downturn reflects broader challenges in the housing sector that contributed to reduced demand for construction materials. Throughout the quarter, inventory levels of DBP were adequate, as the market was well-supplied despite the lower demand. This equilibrium in supply and inventory further reinforced the bearish pricing trend.
In summary, the Q2 2024 market for Dibutyl Phthalate in North America remained bearish, influenced by the sluggish construction sector and sufficient inventory levels. The drop in new home sales and steady supply conditions were key factors in the continued decline of DBP prices during the quarter.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a steady decline in Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) prices. This downward trend was primarily due to an oversupply in the market that significantly exceeded moderate demand. Low upstream material prices and high inventory levels contributed to reduced domestic prices. Additionally, falling import prices from South Korea, driven by weak demand and decreased production costs, further supported the bearish pricing trend across the region.
In India, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, DBP pricing trends were notably negative. The market faced an oversupplied situation caused by increased imports and high inventory levels. Despite a strong demand from the construction sector, these factors exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, reduced production volumes due to limited working hours during a severe heatwave further impacted supply chains.
Seasonal procurement activities provided some support to demand, but overall market conditions remained bearish. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, prices declined by approximately 2%, reflecting seasonal influences on procurement and supply-demand dynamics. Prices also decreased by about 5% from the previous quarter, indicating a persistent negative trend.
By the end of the quarter, DBP prices in Delhi NCR stood at USD 1588/MT, highlighting the ongoing downward pricing environment. The overall sentiment for the quarter was negative, driven by high supply, moderate demand, and seasonal factors, with no significant plant shutdowns affecting the market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European market for Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) experienced a bearish pricing trend. The primary driver of this decline was the subdued downstream demand, particularly from the construction sector, which saw a noticeable drop-in activity during the first two months of the quarter, as reported by Eurostat. The reduced demand from this key end-use sector significantly impacted the overall market for DBP.
During this period, inventory levels remained adequate due to a moderate supply of DBP from the Asian market. Although there were logistical challenges, such as shipping delays and increased freight costs, these issues did not heavily disrupt the supply chain. The stable influx of DBP from Asia ensured that European markets had sufficient stock, which further contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
The combination of diminished demand and ample inventory led to a persistent decline in DBP prices throughout the quarter. In summary, Q2 2024 saw a continued bearish trend in Dibutyl Phthalate prices in Europe, driven by low demand from the construction industry and sufficient inventory levels. The moderate supply from Asia, despite logistical challenges, did not counteract the prevailing downward pricing pressures.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, prices of Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) in the North American region witnessed an upward trajectory. Various factors contributed to the fluctuations in market prices during this period. Firstly, there was a significant surge in demand from the downstream Plasticizer sector, fueled by ongoing infrastructure projects and increased manufacturing activity.
However, a major concern emerged with the collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, which raised issues regarding the efficient transportation of the product within the United States. This incident occurred during a challenging period when tank supplies in the region were already strained due to adverse weather conditions. Throughout the quarter, there was a notable focus on consumer inflation data in the United States, particularly following a robust payroll employment report indicating a healthy labor market.
Concurrently, interest rates were in a contractionary phase, aimed at moderating economic expansion. Additionally, the exported value of downstream PVC experienced a decline of 5.2% in January 2024, signaling a surge in downstream inventory levels and temporarily dampening DBP demand. Despite these obstacles, the pricing environment for DBP in the North American region during Q1 2024 remained favorable, with rising prices driven by heightened demand from the downstream Plasticizer industry and supply constraints.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has seen mixed trends for Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) prices in the APAC region. The regional market experienced significant price changes compared to other countries in the region. In India, DBP prices remained stable in February 2024, supported by a balanced demand-supply situation. However, in January, prices increased due to logistical challenges faced by the shipping industry caused by the Red Sea crisis. This led to supply chain disruptions and higher freight costs, resulting in a bullish market sentiment. The demand for DBP in India remained stable throughout the quarter, with expectations of a seasonal increase in demand from the downstream PVC manufacturers as summer arrived. However, the market faced challenges with low supply due to the disruptions in the global supply chain. Looking at the overall trends, DBP prices in the region declined at the end of this quarter due to a post-festive lull and low purchasing appetite. The market was bearish, with moderate supply and low demand. Supplies remained firm, but destocking activities affected pricing dynamics. In terms of price changes within the quarter, there was a decline of 3% in December 2023 compared to the previous month. However, prices increased by 1.5% in January 2024, driven by supply chain disruptions. The quarter-ending price for DBP in India was recorded at USD 1705/MT FOB JNPT during March 2024.
Europe
The recent increase in Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) prices in the European market during the quarter ending March 2024 can be attributed to a combination of moderate demand and a shortage of suppliers. Challenges within the European DBP supply chain, such as disruptions in logistics linked to the turmoil in the Red Sea, played a role in shaping the prevailing pricing trend. Decreases in downstream production rates, caused by supply disruptions, led market participants to exercise caution regarding potential further changes. Despite indications of low demand in the downstream Plasticizer industry amid slowed construction activities, limited supplies were evident in the German domestic market. Global crude oil prices surged, exceeding USD 87 per barrel, driven by factors such as tighter physical markets, the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, and geopolitical tensions. However, DBP prices in the German market remained steady, with a reduced demand-supply gap and limited stock availability amidst rising input costs in the middle of the quarter. Supply concerns emerged in March 2024 as the Easter holidays approached, particularly focusing on German ports facing closures during weeks 13 and 14 due to the holidays. Additionally, the export value in the downstream Plasticizer industry witnessed an increase in January 2024, indicating a shortage of inventories amid production rate cuts, further contributing to the escalation of DBP prices during this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
NORTH AMERICA
The price of Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) in the US market expresses a bullish trend in the fourth quarter of the year.
Behind the bullish market behavior supply and product demand dynamics played a major role as the downstream industry responding fairly towards the products, construction sector was at a rising stage during the entire timeframe driven by the recovering economic condition of the country. Further, n-Butanol, primary feedstock had the key impact on the overall market breakthrough of the DBP.
In November 2023, a global price hike for the several chemicals was observed, which started affecting the price of primary feedstock, despite the demand from the downstream market witnessed the overall moderate trend including the downstream Plasticizer and the elastomers manufacturing companies. This upward trajectory in US prices stems from a confluence of factors, primarily driven by upward feedstock costs. Key raw materials, n-Butanol and Phthalic Anhydride, used in Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) production, have witnessed significant price increases during this timeframe. This directly translates to higher production costs for US manufacturers to offset the margins. This kept global prices on an upward trajectory, with the US market naturally following suit to remain competitive in the face of global competition.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a tumultuous period for Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) in the APAC region. Supply and demand dynamics were greatly influenced by several key factors. Firstly, the market experienced a surge in raw material costs, particularly for phthalic anhydride and n-butanol, which significantly impacted DBP production costs. Further, the downstream industries, such as plasticizers and construction, witnessed varying levels of demand, leading to fluctuations in overall DBP consumption. Finally, the presence of raw material dumping from countries like China, South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand further intensified competition among DBP manufacturers in the region. Among the APAC countries, India experienced the most significant changes in DBP prices. The country witnessed a bullish market with moderate supply and high demand. The increased demand from downstream industries, coupled with rising raw material costs, contributed to the upward trend in DBP prices. The quarter ended with a price of USD 1469/MT for DBP Ex-Delhi NCR in India. Overall, the Asian DBP market in Q4 2023 was marked by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, raw material costs, and competition. India emerged as a key player experiencing price fluctuations and strong demand, despite the challenges faced by the industry.
EUROPE
In the fourth quarter of the year, the price trend of Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) in the European market witnessed a downward trajectory, driven by the narrow supply and demand gap as well as the overall low production cost of the product. Further, the fourth quarter of the year reported a highly volatile period for the major feedstock of Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) i.e. n-butanol and phthalic anhydride. Noticeably, In Germany, n-Butanol got a price surge of around 2% in November 2023 resulting to maintain high production cost the Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) hitting the spending sentiments in the domestic market of downstream household products. Adding to the complexity, dwindling demand from the downstream construction sector had a high impact. The Germany construction sector was stumbling during the defined timeframe, as higher interest rates drive up mortgage costs, house prices increased significantly in Germany and in most other European countries. On the other hand, In the third quarter, many chemical companies in Europe had started maintenance shutdown or production cut because of ongoing soft market in key economies like Germany, Belgium, UK and other parts of the Europe. Weak demand of the chemicals derived companies to close manufacturing plants across the Europe. Going forward, the chemical sector is expected to get a boost from the first quarter of 2024 as freezing cold overs and public outlay interest rates starts.
