For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) pricing in North America oscillated and witnessed a reduction in the second half of the quarter, notably influenced by several key factors. Initially, the region faced challenges with feedstock Ammonia scarcity, impacting production capacities and hindering price stabilization efforts. The offtakes were moderate, and market players raised their quotations marginally, however the market dynamics remain stable.
However, the market saw a downturn in prices due to weakened demand in the agriculture sector, exacerbated by unstable operational rates at manufacturing units. Supply constraints, particularly in feedstock availability, further contributed to the declining prices. Additionally, the overall market sentiment was negative, with buyers cautiously navigating amid rising inflation and uncertain crop prices, leading to subdued purchasing patterns.
Compared to the previous quarter, prices remained stagnant, with a slight decline of 0%. The first half of the quarter saw a noticeable decrease of 1% in prices, highlighting a downward trend. The price difference remained constant between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a lack of significant fluctuations. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) DEL Illinois prices at USD 555/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing sentiment in the USA market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market showcased bullish sentiments in the APAC region and prices experienced a notable increase. This surge can be attributed to several key factors that influenced market dynamics. One significant driver of the price hike was the uptick in demand from buyers in preparation for the upcoming planting season, leading to heightened market offtakes. Additionally, the limited availability of supplies and increased procurement activities by regional buyers further fueled the price escalation. The cost support from feedstock Ammonia and Phosphoric Acid played a crucial role, with moderate to low availability affecting production costs. The market dynamics were further complicated by supply chain disruptions impacted by seasonal factors like monsoons and typhoons and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil imports, leading to variable feedstock availability and affliction in production rates. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter incline of 11% and the 6% price variance between the first and second half of the quarter underscored the volatility in the market. The latest recorded price of USD 697/MT of DAP CFR Tokyo in Japan signifies the culmination of a quarter marked by a consistently increasing pricing environment.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the pricing landscape for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) in the European region has been characterized by a fluctuating pricing environment predominantly positive, characterized by an incline in prices. Various factors have influenced these price hikes. The rise in production costs due to increased feedstock prices, especially for Ammonia, played a crucial role. Additionally, heightened demand from the agriculture sector, coupled with limited supply availability, contributed to the upward pricing trend. The seasonal nature of agricultural activities also impacted market dynamics, with the need for fertilizers like DAP peaking during this period. However, towards the end of the quarter, DAP prices witnessed an inconsiderable decrease as supply availability improved in the market post-summer holidays. Yet demand failed to match this increase, exacerbating inventory levels. Additionally, the quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% further emphasizes the ongoing price uptrend. Within the quarter, the first half saw a marginal price change compared to the second half, showcasing a steady escalation in prices. The latest quarter-ending price of USD 660/MT for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) FD Hamburg in Germany after a 1% increase in the previous quarter's prices.
Middle East
Like the Asian region, the third quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant uptrend in Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices across the Middle Eastern region, with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most pronounced price inclination. This surge was primarily influenced by a combination of factors, including robust demand from the agriculture sector, supply shortages due to disruptions in upstream raw material imports, and affliction in production costs stemming from rising feedstock prices. The quarter saw a substantial 16% increase from the same period last year, reflecting the overall bullish market sentiment. Moreover, compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 10%, indicating a continued upward trajectory in pricing. Within the quarter, the first half saw a notable price jump of 9%, further emphasizing the escalating trend in DAP prices. As the third quarter of 2024 ended, the latest price for Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) FOB Jeddah in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 618/MT, underscoring the prevailing positive pricing environment characterized by increasing price dynamics.
South America
In Q3 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) price trend fluctuated and pricing in the South America region experienced a downward trend. Several significant factors contributed to this decline. Firstly, there was a surplus in global supply, leading to increased competition among exporters. At the same time, reduced demand from the agriculture sector due to stable consumption of fertilizers negatively impacted the prices. The availability of feedstock materials such as Phosphoric Acid and Ammonia also played a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. In Brazil, the pricing environment reflected a consistent decrease throughout the quarter. This decline was influenced by various factors such as fluctuations in currency exchange rates, seasonal variations in agricultural activities, and changes in global fertilizer demand. The quarter saw a 5% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a gradual shift in market conditions. Moreover, the 1% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 highlighted a continuous downward trajectory. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a negative change of 1%, culminating in the quarter-ending price of USD 570/MT for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) Bulk CFR Manaus in Brazil. This consistent decrease signifies a challenging pricing environment with a negative sentiment prevailing in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in North America dropped significantly due to several factors. The primary cause was an oversupply resulting from relaxed export restrictions in major producing regions, which created a bearish market. Sluggish demand from the fertilizer sector, as agricultural producers had already secured ample supplies for the planting season, further intensified the price decline.
In the USA, where the most notable price changes occurred, the trend was markedly negative. Prices fell by 22% year-on-year and 7% from the previous quarter. Seasonal factors, such as the typical post-planting demand lull and increased inventory, contributed to the price drop. The first half of the quarter saw a 4% decline compared to the latter half, indicating persistent downward momentum.
By the end of the quarter, DAP DEL Illinois prices stabilized at USD 560/MT, reflecting the continued negative market sentiment. The Q2 2024 pricing environment remained challenging for DAP producers in North America, mirroring the broader global oversupply and weak demand conditions.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in the APAC region showed a notably bearish trend. Prices consistently declined due to an oversupply, worsened by a surge in imports from China following eased export restrictions. This influx of Chinese DAP outpaced global demand, creating a market glut that significantly depressed prices. Rising production costs, driven by higher feedstock prices like natural gas and ammonia, also impacted the market. Additionally, seasonal factors, such as the end of the planting season, contributed to reduced demand and further price drops. In Japan, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, DAP prices fell sharply. The market experienced a 14% year-over-year decrease and a 6% drop from the previous quarter. Prices in the first half of the quarter were 3% lower than in the second half, reflecting a steady downward trend. This decline was due to ample supply, stable but not growing demand, and rising production costs. By the end of the quarter, the DAP CFR Tokyo price settled at USD 630/MT, highlighting the persistent negative pricing environment. This decline underscores the market's sensitivity to supply shocks and the importance of balanced production and demand for price stability.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in Europe decreased notably due to several key factors. Increased product availability, coupled with stable demand that did not match the surge in supply, drove prices down. The resumption of production at EuroChem's Lifosa plant in Lithuania further boosted regional supply. Higher Phosphate rock prices and rising Natural Gas costs increased production expenses, despite moderate support from feedstock Ammonia. In Germany, the market mirrored the broader European trend with significant price adjustments. Seasonal planting and harvesting cycles influenced demand, leading to a 1% price drop from the first to the second half of the quarter, particularly towards the end of Q2. Simultaneously, manufacturing activities and procurement activities continued to remain sluggish during the period. Prices decreased by 15% year-over-year and remained unchanged from the previous quarter, reflecting a stable but negative trend. By the end of the quarter, DAP FD Hamburg prices were USD 626/MT, highlighting the ongoing negative market sentiment.
Middle East
In Q2 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in the MEA region fell significantly due to several factors. Eased export restrictions led to an oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. At the same time, lower feedstock ammonia and natural gas prices reduced production costs, contributing to the price drop. Saudi Arabia experienced the most notable fluctuations. During the mid-quarter, the cost support declined from feedstock Phosphoric Acid due to a reduction in upstream raw material Phosphorous yellow prices amid weak purchasing activities. At the same time, producers halted offers for June and July shipments, and exports remained tight. Meanwhile, the offtakes were moderate from the buyers amid the stable stocking practices from the buyers. Prices dropped 3% year-over-year and 9% from the previous quarter, reflecting a persistent bearish trend. Within the quarter, prices fell 7% from the first half to the second, highlighting a consistent downward trajectory. Seasonal factors, including the post-harvest period, further reduced demand, leading to price declines. By the end of Q2 2024, DAP prices in Saudi Arabia were USD 517/MT FOB Jeddah, underscoring a negative market environment. The combination of increased supply, low demand, and subdued market activity drove the overall decline in product prices.
South America
In Q2 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in South America fell, with Brazil experiencing the most significant decline. This trend was driven by several factors: global oversupply due to increased imports from the USA and eased export restrictions from China created a market surplus, leading to competitive pricing. Additionally, limited supply from key exporters and ongoing shipping challenges exacerbated the price drop. In the middle of quarter two of 2024, cost support from feedstock Phosphoric Acid decreased due to a drop in upstream Phosphorous yellow prices amid weak purchasing activity. Concurrently, producers suspended offers for June and July shipments, and exports remained limited. In Brazil, prices decreased by 7% from the previous quarter. The first half of the quarter saw a 4% price drop compared to the second half, reflecting a consistent downward trend. Year-over-year, prices fell by 21%, indicating a substantial shift in market conditions. By the end of the quarter, DAP Bulk CFR Manaus prices in Brazil were USD 575/MT, highlighting the overall negative pricing sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During the first quarter of 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in North America experienced a bullish price trend. This was driven by a combination of factors including limited supply and rising prices of raw materials.
The market remained optimistic throughout the quarter due to a shortage of DAP inventory from the previous season, leading to higher prices. The expected resumption of government restrictions on DAP exports from China during March also contributed to increased purchasing activity from overseas markets. Limited phosphate shipments arrived via the Mississippi River, as their late arrival wouldn't benefit growers who were already finalizing dry product applications.
The United States played a crucial role in the North American DAP market, with prices witnessing an overall increase of 19% compared to the previous quarter. The domestic market displayed strong demand as growers anticipated favorable spring weather conditions for planting and made early fertilizer purchases. In the USA, DAP prices settled at a 6% increase during the second half of the quarter, compared to the first half.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) pricing for the APAC region continued to remain stable. Similar to the previous quarter, the demand from the agriculture sector remained weak, resulting in a balanced market situation. Additionally, moderate supply levels were observed as government regulations continued to restrict the export of fertilizers like DAP, leading to more products being available domestically in China, which is the largest producer of DAP. China, being a crucial player in the DAP market, experienced unchanged prices at USD 560/MT FOB Qingdao during February 2024. There were no significant changes in market conditions or policy updates that affected the pricing. The domestic demand for DAP in China remained steady due to the restrictions on exports. Nevertheless, concerns over these export limitations have prompted Asian fertilizer purchasers to explore alternatives to Chinese suppliers. However, at the end of March, Chinese producers began strategically entering the processed phosphate market, offering DAP at competitive prices as RCF of India received DAP quotes with a significant decrease from just a few weeks ago.
Europe
The European Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in Quarter 1, 2024 witnessed bullish price fluctuations due to several factors. During January 2024, the war undoubtedly presented significant hardships for European farmers as DAP prices within the country experienced low demand and no significant upward pressure due to the off-season for upstream ammonia purchases in Germany leading to relatively muted overall business activity. However, in the latter half, the scarcity of foreign DAP imports, particularly from China and the USA, caused by disruptions in the supply chain and logistical hurdles, played a crucial role in these dynamics during February 2024. This scarcity led to limited availability of DAP in the market, resulting in a notable price surge. Furthermore, the soaring freight costs also contributed to the pricing dynamics during this period.
In addition, major manufacturers like Yara adopted cautious production strategies, temporarily halting ammonia production, which raised concerns about the supply of DAP and further pushed the prices higher within Germany.
MEA
The first quarter of 2024 saw a bearish to a balanced market for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) in the MEA region. In the latter half, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in the MEA region experienced moderate demand and a balanced market situation with lower agricultural activity globally, a well-stocked international market, and high freight charges. In terms of production, Saudi Arabia saw declining prices during January after Ma'aden resumed production at its Ammonia and Phosphate facility. This unusual stability was attributed to a balanced demand and supply as the continuous state-run Indian enterprises have been actively purchasing DAP from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Russia which kept the steady flow of cargo. The Houthi rebel strikes in the past have successfully redirected shipping lanes from the Red Sea, posing logistical difficulties for Saudi Arabia's exports of DAP. Inversely, this leads to an oversupply within Saudi Arabia even as it makes it more difficult for the country to access the global market. The price percentage change from Q3 2023 to Q4 2023 was 1%, and the price percentage comparison between the first and second half of the quarter in Saudi Arabia remained the same.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in South America experienced international supply bottlenecks that influenced prices which admitted a bullish trend. The overseas market faced delays due to global shipping issues, tightening DAP flow into Brazil. Moreover, the Chinese manufacturers held onto stocks, forcing buyers to pay premiums for immediate availability. Panama Canal bottleneck which increased freight costs impacted shipments to South America, including Brazil. During March, the US market for DAP commanded a premium over other markets worldwide. This creates a situation where DAP prices in Brazil, while already high, were even higher compared to other regions. Moreover, the export capabilities at a key Russian port, Ust-Luga faced some technical pressure which created supply pressure to export DAP to Brazil in the meantime. The country has observed a moderate demand trend for DAP particularly driven by the downstream fertilizer industry. With the continuing cotton and sorghum growing operations, demand from important fertilizer markets was hampered by the unpredictable weather.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The current quarter of 2023 for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) in North America witnessed an overall bullish market situation, with the scarcity of key feedstock materials, such as natural gas and phosphoric acid, putting upward pressure on DAP prices.
Secondly, transportation lines in the US remained constrained due to low water levels in the Mississippi River and short supplies of railcars and truck availability. Thirdly, buyers' resistance to making bulk purchases led to a decline in import prices. However, November witnessed a moderate surge, as the cost pressure of essential feedstock Ammonia and Phosphoric Acid prices was limited during this timeframe.
The USA market witnessed a bullish trend during this quarter. The trend was mainly attributed to the elevated price of essential feedstock ammonia and phosphoric acid, coupled with a shortage of supplies within the regional market. Additionally, an anticipated increase in the price of ammonia and phosphoric acid within the country may lead to increased DAP prices. The quarter-ending price of DAP DEL Illinois in the USA was USD 563/MT.
APAC
The Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in the APAC region exhibited a bullish trend throughout the current quarter of 2023 (Q4) from October to December. Moreover, as compared to the previous quarter, DAP in the Chinese market rebounded with a hike of 4.36% amid supply constraints and high demand. During October, the rising prices of the vital raw material, phosphate rock, exerted upward pressure on the price of Diammonium Phosphate within the Chinese market. Further, the delayed resumption of production activities by some manufacturing units following the Golden Week holidays contributed to a material shortage in the Chinese market. However, the market situation in China was more volatile in November, and the prices of DAP fluctuated due to the limited availability of products in the global market, factory equipment malfunctions, and partial sales stoppages. Further, Diammonium Phosphate imports to the international market increased marginally during this timeframe which exerted upward cost pressure on Diammonium Phosphate prices. The latest/quarter-ending price of DAP FOB Qingdao in China for the current quarter was USD 568/MT.
Europe
The Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in Europe during the fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a continued uptrend. Firstly, there was a scarcity of imported DAP, mainly due to a temporary halt in Ammonia production by Yara and decreased exports from European nations. This constrained supply, combined with escalated freight charges, led to a robust bullish sentiment in the market. Secondly, domestic demand for DAP in Germany remained moderate to low as end-user consumers in the fertilizer market maintained a reserved stance. The cautious approach taken by producers, influenced by mounting costs and logistical hurdles, contributed to the nuanced dynamics characterizing the German DAP market. Additionally, the closure of energy-intensive facilities, including Ammonia plants, by BASF further impacted supply. Moreover, the European gas hubs experienced a bullish trend, leading to restricted production of Ammonia and its derivatives, including DAP. This situation was exacerbated by the earthquake in Morocco, which damaged a major Phosphoric Acid producer, resulting in a scarcity of supplies in the regional market. Overall, these factors created a low supply and moderate demand environment in the European DAP market, particularly in Germany. The latest price of DAP in Germany for the quarter ending was USD 670/MT.
MEA
The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a bullish to balanced market for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) in the MEA region, with a continued uptrend throughout November while maintaining stability during December. The demand from the international fertilizer market, particularly India and Brazil, remained strong throughout the quarter, with no notable price fluctuations in the Urea market. The limited availability of spot DAP in November and the resumption of production activities in the leading ammonia and phosphate plant in Saudi Arabia led to a moderate to low supply situation in the country, exerting upward pressure on DAP prices. The increase in essential feedstock Ammonia and Phosphoric acid prices within the country also contributed to the increased DAP prices. However, the declining feedstock Ammonia prices and ample availability of DAP in the global market led to a marginal stable market of DAP in December. The FOB price of DAP at Jeddah port in Saudi Arabia was assessed at USD 590/MT for the quarter ending in December, exhibiting an 18% increase from the previous quarter.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in South America experienced various factors that influenced prices which admitted a bullish trend throughout October and December. Firstly, imported DAP supplies were scarce due to prolonged drought conditions in the Panama Canal, leading to limited exports to the region. Additionally, demand from the end-user fertilizer market remained subdued, as farmers were concerned about crop damage caused by the El Niño-related drought. This combination of reduced supply and weakened demand exerted upward pressure on DAP prices. In Brazil, which witnessed the most significant price changes in the region, DAP prices increased due to global market conditions. The emphasis on soybean and corn cultivation in the country led to a higher demand for fertilizers, including DAP. However, costly imports from the USA, coupled with the suspension of DAP exports from China, contributed to the rising prices. Furthermore, the depreciation of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar added to the cost of imports and further supported the upward trend of DAP prices in Brazil.
