For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Cold Rolled Coil market experienced a period of decreasing prices, influenced by several significant factors. The market was primarily impacted by a supply and demand imbalance, with excess supply levels leading to downward pressure on prices. Weak demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction played a crucial role in driving prices lower. Additionally, global market dynamics, including increased imports and trade uncertainties, further contributed to the pricing decline.
In Mexico, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices dropping compared to the same quarter last year. The quarter-on-quarter charge recorded a decrease, highlighting the continued negative trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 2.6% decline, reflecting the sustained downward trajectory. Additionally, the excess supply, coupled with weakening demand, is contributing to the overall pricing decline in the CRC market.
The latest quarter-ending price for CR Coil (1 mm) CFR Manzanillo in Mexico stood at USD 1275/MT, signalling a persistently negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market witnessed a continued decline in prices, reflecting a challenging environment marked by weak demand and oversupply conditions. Several factors influenced market prices, including sluggish demand in key sectors like automotive and construction, leading to subdued consumption of Cold Rolled Coil. Moreover, the market faced headwinds from global economic uncertainties, ongoing conflicts, and regulatory challenges, all contributing to the negative price trends.
Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes in the region, saw a notable decrease in Cold rolled coil prices. Moreover, Overall trends indicated a negative change from the same quarter last year, with a further decline from the previous quarter in 2024.Additioanly, the correlation in price changes between the first and second half of the quarter remained at 2.5% decline, indicating a consistent downward trajectory.
The quarter-ending price in Germany stood at USD 850/MT of CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr, underscoring the prevailing negative sentiment and challenging market conditions.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 for Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) in the APAC region has been marked by a significant decrease in prices, driven by a multitude of factors. The market has experienced a decline from the same quarter last year, with a further decline from the previous quarter. Additionally, the overall trend has been negative, with a 4% decrease in pricing between the first and second half of the quarter.
China, as a key player in the region, has seen the maximum price changes, with prices declining consistently. Moreover, market dynamics have been influenced by a combination of increased supply, weakened demand, and global economic uncertainties. Additionally, the CRC market in China has faced challenges in logistics, raw material costs, and international trade dynamics. Furthermore, Seasonal factors, such as the off-season period and adverse weather conditions, have also played a role in the declining prices.
The latest quarter-ending price for CRC in China stands at USD 569 per metric ton, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2 2024, the Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market in North America experienced a downward trend in pricing, driven primarily by an oversupply and diminishing demand across various sectors. The quarter saw a consistent decrease in CRC prices, influenced predominantly by high inventory levels, reduced construction activity, and a sluggish manufacturing sector. Elevated interest rates continued to suppress purchasing activity, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties also contributed to a negative market sentiment, leading to cautious behaviour among buyers and restrained restocking efforts by service centres.
In the USA, the decline in Cold Rolled Coil prices was particularly pronounced. An overall bearish market sentiment prevailed throughout the quarter, accentuated by significant price adjustments from major steelmakers like Nucor. The construction sector's continued sluggishness, coupled with high interest rates, played a critical role in reducing demand. Moreover, the decrease in domestic crude steel production added to the extensive oversupply, further pushing prices downward. The correlation between reduced demand and high inventories was evident, leading to a 2% price drop in the latter half of the quarter compared to the first half.
The decreased pricing environment culminated in the latest quarter-ending price of USD 1245/MT for CR Coil (1 mm) DEL-Illinois, highlighting a generally negative pricing environment. The overall sentiment for Q2 2024 was undeniably negative, marked by continuous price declines and a challenging market landscape.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen stable pricing for Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) in the European region, shaped by various factors. The market has experienced balanced dynamics, with supply and demand remaining largely congruent. A steady influx of raw materials, coupled with moderate production levels, has contributed to maintaining equilibrium in prices. Additionally, the market has not been significantly impacted by external economic shocks or geopolitical tensions, allowing for a consistent pricing environment.
Throughout the quarter, prices remained consistent between the first and second halves, underscoring the stable market environment. This stability indicates a balanced market where supply meets demand without significant disruptions. The CRC price for FD-Ruhr (Germany) concluded the quarter at USD 894/MT, reflecting a stable pricing trend.
Overall, the pricing environment for CRC in Germany and Europe has been stable, supported by balanced supply-demand dynamics and strategic market behaviour. This equilibrium has fostered a consistent market sentiment that is neither overly positive nor negative, ensuring a predictable and steady pricing trajectory.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the cold rolled coil (CRC) market in the APAC region experienced a stable pricing environment, largely influenced by balanced supply and demand dynamics. Despite facing various challenges, such as fluctuations in raw material costs and moderate global economic growth, the region managed to maintain consistent pricing. Key factors driving market stability included steady production rates among major manufacturers, robust demand from the automotive and construction sectors, and cautious inventory management practices. The quarter saw minimal volatility in supply chains, contributing to the overall stability in CRC prices. Focusing on South Korea, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market trends were marked by seasonality and correlation in price fluctuations. The pricing remained relatively stable, with the second half of the quarter maintaining the same level as the first half. The consistency in pricing throughout the quarter, with no significant variation between the first and second halves, underscored a stable sentiment in the market. The latest quarter-ending price for CRC (SPCC-1 mm) Ex-Busan in South Korea settled at USD 987/MT. This stable pricing environment suggests that while the market faced pressures from international competition and local economic factors, it managed to maintain a balanced outlook, neither drifting significantly upwards nor downwards. Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for CRC in South Korea reflected a stable yet cautiously optimistic stance.
South America
In Q2 2024, the Cold Rolled Coil pricing in the South America region remained stable amidst various influencing factors. The market experienced a balanced equilibrium, with prices holding steady throughout the quarter. Several significant factors contributed to this stability. Firstly, consistent demand from various industries maintained a healthy market balance. Secondly, strategic supply chain management and efficient production processes ensured a steady supply of Cold Rolled Coil in the region. Additionally, regulatory measures and trade policies played a crucial role in stabilizing prices and preventing extreme fluctuations.
In Brazil, where the most significant price changes were observed, the overall trends mirrored the regional stability. Despite facing some fluctuations, the market in Brazil largely mirrored the stable pricing environment of the region. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price deviation, further reinforcing the stable pricing environment.
As the quarter ended, the latest price for Cold Rolled Coil (SPCC-1 mm) CFR Santos in Brazil stood at USD 743/MT, underscoring the consistent and stable pricing landscape that characterized the Cold Rolled Coil market in Q2 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Cold Rolled Coil in the North America region. Several significant factors have influenced market prices during this period. These include supply chain disruptions, trade disruptions, and fluctuations in raw material costs. These factors have contributed to a tightening of supply and increased production costs, leading to upward pressure on prices.
In the USA, which has experienced the maximum price changes, overall trends was positive for Cold Rolled Coil prices. There has been a correlation between the tightening of supply and the price increases observed in the market. Additionally, seasonality has played a role, with demand typically picking up in the first quarter as construction activity resumes after the winter months.
The quarter ending price for Cold Rolled Coil in the USA stands at USD 1275/MT for CR Coil (1 mm) DEL-Illinois. This reflects the overall positive sentiment in the pricing environment for Cold Rolled Coil in the North America region during Q1 2024.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Cold Rolled Coil market in the APAC region experienced a significant decrease in prices. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including oversupply, reduced demand, and disruptions in trade routes. The overall trend in the region was negative, with prices declining by 16% compared to the same quarter last year. China saw the maximum price changes in the region. The market in China exhibited a stable to negative sentiment, with prices declining throughout the quarter. The decrease in demand from the downstream construction sector, adverse weather conditions, and disruptions in trade routes all contributed to the downward price trend in China. The quarter-ending price for Cold Rolled Coil in China was USD 621/MT for CR Coil (SPCC-1 mm) Ex Tianjin. This price reflects the overall negative sentiment in the market. Overall, the Cold Rolled Coil pricing environment in the APAC region for Q1 2024 was characterized by negative trends, with prices experiencing a significant decline.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the European region witnessed an overall positive pricing environment for Cold Rolled Coil. The market experienced an increase in prices, driven by several significant factors. These factors included strong demand from downstream industries such as construction, infrastructure, and automotive sectors. Additionally, limited supply and reduced inventory levels further contributed to the upward price trend. Germany saw significant price changes during this quarter. The market in Germany followed the overall European trend, with prices showing a positive trajectory. The country experienced a seasonal increase in demand, as construction activities picked up and the automotive sector showed signs of recovery. The price changes in Germany correlated with the overall market trends in Europe. The quarter-ending price for Cold Rolled Coil in Germany was USD 896/MT of CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr. This reflected the overall positive sentiment in the pricing environment for Cold Rolled Coil in Germany. Overall, Q1 2024 was a period of increasing prices for Cold Rolled Coil in Europe, with Germany experiencing similar upward trends. The market was influenced by strong demand, limited supply, and seasonal factors, contributing to the positive pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American region witnessed a declining quarter for Cold Rolled Coil pricing in Q4 2023 due to the impact of various global macroeconomic factors. In early October, Cold Rolled Coil prices in the United States remained stable amid global macroeconomic pressures, including rising inflation and concerns about China's construction industry. The Inflation Reduction Act had little impact on boosting demand. LME warehouse stocks increased, signaling a supply surplus.
However, in the domestic market, Cleaveland Cliffs' price hike announcement, coupled with reduced production due to a UAW strike and increasing input costs, led to a subsequent price increase. Downstream construction and infrastructure demand showed promise. The Chinese government's stimulus measures globally contributed to rising prices. Interest rate hikes in the USA also played a role.
By December, Cold Rolled Coil prices stabilized due to reduced supply, increased order fulfillment, and positive market sentiments. Major manufacturers announced price increases, instilling hope for the upcoming months. However, trade disruptions in the Red Sea, EU tariff extensions, and a declining consumption rate during holidays affected the market, and the overall situation remained dynamic. The latest quarter-ending price of Cold Rolled Coil (1 mm) DEL-Illinois in the USA was USD 1170/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region's Cold Rolled Coil market witnessed a considerable hike in the price trend in Q4 2023. In the Chinese Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market, the second week of September saw stagnancy in prices amid increased output and sluggish terminal demand caused by price slips and the impact of a typhoon in South China. Inventory buildup was reported in various regions, with limited room for iron ore prices to drop. Despite positive policies in real estate and manufacturing, their impact on the CRC market was expected to take time. By the last week of September, CRC prices remained stable as local downstream demand stayed low amidst decreasing inventories. In October, weakening demand from consumer goods and the construction sector, along with stable production and declining real estate activity, contributed to a static price trend. In the third week of October, CRC prices decreased due to lower iron ore feedstock costs, reduced downstream product demand, and market instability from stable interest rates. Industry participants adopted a "wait-and-see" strategy. Later it was observed that CRC prices in China showed stability, supported by a global production rate increase, improved profit and export rates, and healthy orders from local and overseas buyers, prompting mills to maintain stable costs during the recovery phase in the Chinese Steel Market. No plant shutdown was observed in the Chinese spot market during this quarter. The quarter-ending price of Cold Rolled Coil (SPCC-1 mm) Ex Tianjin in China was USD 660/MT.
Europe
The Cold Rolled Coil market in Europe during Q4 of 2023 observed a plunging price trend in the German spot market. In October, the German Cold Rolled Coil market faced stability with weakened demand from the automotive and construction sectors, attributed to intense competition and reduced market share for German automotive companies. Higher inflation and cautious government spending contributed to sluggish sales. Despite support for solar energy, economic uncertainty led to a "wait and see" approach, affecting demand for Cold Rolled Coil. In November, the market remained stable amid slow purchasing activity and temporary closures due to public holidays. Overseas competition and the potential increase in the European Federal Reserve interest rate impacted consumer behavior. Rising energy costs benefited major steel makers but posed challenges for small-scale fabricators. December saw low demand, maintenance shutdowns at major Italian manufacturer Acciaierie d’Italia, and disruptions in international shipping routes. The market ended the year with a slight upward trend in prices, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing due to uncertain market conditions and geopolitical factors. The Cold Rolled Coil price in Germany during Q4 of 2023 increased by 1.1%, with the quarter-ending price of USD 910/MT for CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr in Germany.
