For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American carbon black market witnessed a decline in prices from the beginning of the quarter, with significant factors influencing this trend. Market conditions were primarily influenced by lower crude oil prices, reduced demand in the automotive sector, and heightened competition from imports, particularly from Asia. The decrease in tire demand domestically, coupled with higher inventory levels, led to a downward pressure on prices.
In the USA specifically, price changes were most pronounced, reflecting overall trends in the region. Notably, there was an 8% drop in the quarter’s ending prices compared to the same quarter last year, while the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 showed a decline of 4.5%. The prices peaked in the middle driven by higher freight as well as import prices, while the second half observed gradual decline in prices and stabilization. The quarter ended with Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 FOB Texas priced at USD 1850/MT, underscoring the negative pricing environment prevalent throughout Q3 2024.
Cabot faced technical difficulties in the month of September and several plant outages and lower refinery runs has kept the cost pressures up for the next quarter. US will be facing a general election due in Q4 which has kept the suppliers holding on to the present prices.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed increasing prices for Carbon Black, driven by a combination of factors. The market was influenced by ample supply, stable production costs due to lower coal tar and crude prices, and sluggish demand from tire and rubber manufacturers. These factors created an oversupply situation, leading to stable prices. However, Japan experienced the most significant price changes in the region. A 10% drop of the quarter ending price compared with last year reflect, price deflationary pressure persists in APAC due to weaker demand and easing RFO, coal tar and other feedstock prices and 1.5% gains in carbon black N220 grade prices from the previous quarter’s ending price in 2024. Japan saw a price drop in the first half of the quarter, followed by a bullish rally in the second half. This trend indicates a mixed sentiment driven largely by plant outages and Autumn festivities celebration in the latter half. The latest quarter-ending price for Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 CFR Tokyo in Japan stood at USD 1380/MT, reflecting a positive sentiment towards increasing prices in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a decline in the prices in the third quarter driven by lower import prices, especially from India and Thailand. Several factors influenced this downward trend. Slowing demand for tires, reduced car sales, and easing crude and naphtha prices were key drivers. In this context, the market in Netherlands saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% decrease from the previous quarter. While the 24% increment in the quarter end price compared to previous year. Elevated Carbon black N220 grade prices were driven largely by EU sanctions on Russia and longer lead times for imports from APAC Seasonality played a role, with the second half of the quarter showing a decline of 8%. The first half remained relatively stable with price bullishness of 1.2% at the peak trading season in August. This overall trend of decreasing prices in the Carbon Black market in Europe reflected a negative sentiment. The latest quarter-ending price for Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 FD Rotterdam in Netherlands stood at USD 1440/MT, indicating supply stabilization. The market outlook suggests continued moderation in prices as demand softens and supply stabilizes, leading to a challenging pricing environment for Carbon Black in the region.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the MEA region witnessed a decline in the prices in the third quarter driven by lower import prices, especially from India and Thailand. Several factors influenced this downward trend. Slowing demand for tires, reduced car sales, and easing crude and naphtha prices were key drivers. In this context, the market in United Arab Emirates saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% decrease from the previous quarter. While the 24% increment in the quarter end price compared to previous year. Elevated Carbon black N220 grade prices were driven largely by EU sanctions on Russia and longer lead times for imports from Russia as well as APAC. Seasonality played a role, with the second half of the quarter showing a decline of 8%. The first half remained relatively stable with price bullishness of 1.2% at the peak trading season in August. This overall trend of decreasing prices in the Carbon Black market in Europe reflected a negative sentiment. The latest quarter-ending price for Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 CFR Jebel Ali in United Arab Emirates stood at USD 1440/MT, indicating supply stabilization. The market outlook suggests continued moderation in prices as demand softens and supply stabilizes, leading to a challenging pricing environment for Carbon Black in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 for the North American Carbon Black market has been characterized by a mixed trend driven by a combination of factors. Prominently, rising crude oil prices have cascaded through the supply chain, inflating production costs. Additionally, labor strikes, particularly in railway sectors, have disrupted supply routes, thereby constrained availability and fostering a tighter market. Increased global freight costs have further exacerbated the situation, deterring imports and compelling local suppliers to adjust prices upwards. Moreover, robust demand from tire manufacturers, buoyed by a recovering automotive sector, has enhanced market dynamics.
Focusing on the USA, the market has experienced significant price volatility. Seasonal factors such as increased travel demand during the summer months have inherently bolstered tire sales, thereby escalating the demand for Carbon Black. Concurrently, market sentiment has been influenced by inventory adjustments and speculative buying in anticipation of further supply disruptions. Despite a 6% decrease compared to the same quarter last year and a -2% change from the previous quarter, the market environment has remained positive, with prices stabilizing towards the latter part of the quarter.
A comparative analysis within the quarter shows a 2% price increase from the first to the second half, reflecting heightened demand pressures and constrained supply. The quarter concluded with Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 prices at USD 1890/MT FOB Texas, underscoring a stable yet bullish pricing environment. Overall, the second quarter of 2024 has seen prices progressively stabilizing after initial fluctuations, setting a firm foundation for subsequent market movements.
APAC
During Q2 2024, the Carbon Black market in the APAC region has experienced an overall downward trend in pricing, primarily driven by several pivotal factors. Supply chain dynamics, notably inventory adjustments by rubber producers prioritizing exports to the US, have significantly influenced market prices. The imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese rubber goods by the US has led to regional oversupply as shipments are delayed, further pressuring prices. Additionally, easing feedstock price pressures, driven by lower crude and natural gas prices, have contributed to the bearish sentiment. The market has also been affected by high inventory levels and subdued demand for tire production, reflecting a broader sluggishness in the automotive sector. Japan, in particular, exhibited pronounced price changes in Carbon Black, making it the focal point of this trend. The overall market sentiment in Japan this quarter has been negative, with a 6% decline compared to the same quarter last year and a stable yet unfavorable price movement from the previous quarter of 2024, showing 0% change. Within the quarter, a further 3% price drop from the first to the second half underscores the persistent downward pressure on prices. Seasonal factors, such as weaker consumer demand and heightened inventories, have exacerbated this trend. The latest price for Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 CFR Tokyo at the quarter's end is USD 1360/MT. This persistent decrease in prices underscores a negative pricing environment, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the Carbon Black market in Japan and the APAC region during Q2 2024.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Carbon Black market experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple influential factors. The primary driver was heightened demand, especially from the tire manufacturing sector, which saw a seasonal uptick as automotive production geared up for summer. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and subsequent trade disruptions, particularly affecting supply routes and logistics from Russia, further tightened market availability. Crude oil price inflation also exacerbated cost pressures, leading to higher production and transportation costs for Carbon Black. Focusing on Germany, this quarter witnessed the most pronounced price changes within the region, reflecting an overall bullish sentiment. The replacement tire market's recovery, coupled with a robust industrial production rate and positive economic indicators, has sustained high demand levels. This strong demand was complemented by supply constraints due to geopolitical instability, which created a perfect storm for escalating prices. The price trend within the quarter showed a marked increase, with a 4% price differential between the first and second halves, highlighting the accelerating upward trajectory. Year-over-year, prices surged by 9%, while the increase from the previous quarter was a notable 14%, signaling a sharp rise in costs within a relatively short timeframe. By the end of the quarter, the price for Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 FD Hamburg closed at USD 1530/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for Carbon Black in Q2 2024 has been overwhelmingly positive, characterized by strong market demand and constrained supply, leading to sustained upward pressure on prices.
MEA
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a notable escalation in Carbon Black pricing within the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, primarily driven by a confluence of supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and increased domestic production costs. The global supply tightness, exacerbated by logistical challenges and elevated freight costs, has been a pivotal factor influencing the market prices. Furthermore, rising energy costs and the strategic pricing by suppliers in response to robust demand have compounded the upward pressure on Carbon Black prices. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the impact has been particularly pronounced, with Carbon Black N220 Grade CFR Jebel Ali experiencing significant price volatility. The overall trend in the UAE has been characterized by a consistent upward trajectory, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations associated with the summer travel and tourism surge. The correlation between heightened transportation needs and increased tire production has been a key driver of price increments. From a year-on-year perspective, the prices have surged by 22%, reflecting a substantial escalation from the same quarter last year. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, there has been a recorded price increase of 13%, indicative of persistent upward momentum. Additionally, the price differential between the first and second half of the quarter stands at 4%, underscoring the sustained price elevation.
Conclusively, the latest quarter-ending price for Carbon Black N220 Grade CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE is USD 1550/MT, marking a robust pricing environment. The overall sentiment in the MEA region has been undeniably positive, characterized by a bullish market outlook driven by supply constraints and unwavering demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been a challenging period for Carbon Black in the North America region, as prices continued to decrease. Several factors have influenced the market, leading to a negative pricing environment. In the USA, which has experienced the most significant price changes, overall trends have shown a consistent decline in prices. One of the main reasons for the price decrease is the weakening demand for Carbon Black, particularly in the EV and battery markets. Technical glitches in EV vehicles, such as those experienced by Tesla, have resulted in recalls and reduced procurement of carbon black components. Additionally, high fuel costs and declining consumer sentiment have led to a slowdown in the replacement tire market.
Supply has remained stable, although there have been some challenges with delayed deliveries due to the Suez Crisis and the need to cut inventories to remain financially viable. However, the overall supply situation has not been enough to counter the decreasing demand. Looking at the price changes, there has been a significant decline compared to the same quarter last year, with prices down by 13%. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices have fallen by 15%. There has also been a decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter, with a 6% decline.
As the quarter comes to an end, the latest price for Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 FOB Texas in the USA stands at USD 1870/MT, reflecting the continued downward trend in prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Carbon Black in the North America region has been negative, with decreasing prices driven by weak demand and stable supply.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Carbon Black in the Europe region. Several factors have influenced the market prices during this period. Overall, there has been positive sentiment in the pricing environment, with prices showing a consistent upward trend. In the Netherlands, which has seen the maximum price changes, the market has experienced overall positive trends. Demand for Carbon Black has been strong, driven by recovering demand in the replacement tire market and the rebound in the construction sector. Additionally, the transition to sustainable practices and the increasing demand for energy storage solutions have further boosted the demand for Carbon Black in the country.
In terms of price changes, there has been a significant increase compared to the same quarter last year, with prices rising by 20%. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices have increased by 23%. Moreover, there has been an 8% price increase in the second half of the quarter compared to the first half. As of the end of the quarter, the price of Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands stood at USD 1360/MT.
Overall, the pricing environment for Carbon Black in the Europe region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with increasing prices driven by strong demand and market trends in the Netherlands.
Asia Pacific
The first quarter of 2024 has seen a mixed sentiment in Carbon Black pricing in the APAC region. The downward movement in carbon black prices triggered by Lunar New year induced slump early in the quarter was significantly offset by restocking in the latter half of the quarter. Demand initially fell by 8 to 10% in volume terms, while the gains in the latter half offset demand situation significantly
Looking at the price changes within Q1 2024, there has been a 6% decrease compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, there has been a 10% decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. These trends indicate a consistent decline in Carbon Black prices throughout the quarter.
As of the end of the first quarter, the price of Carbon Black Hard Grade N220 CFR Tokyo in Japan stands at USD 1460/MT. This reflects the overall negative sentiment in the market, with prices continuing to decrease. Overall, the pricing environment for Carbon Black in the APAC region has been negative in Q1 2024, with declining demand and oversupply leading to downward pressure on prices.
Middle East and Africa
The first quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Carbon Black in the MEA region. Several factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been a tightening of global supplies, leading to limited availability and higher prices. Exporters have also strategically adjusted their pricing to take advantage of the tightening market conditions. Additionally, demand for Carbon Black has remained positive overall, although there has been a slight slowdown in certain markets, possibly due to seasonal factors such as Ramadan festivities. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Carbon Black prices have seen the maximum price changes. Prices have been on an upward trend, although at a slower pace. This increase is driven by tightening global supplies and strategic pricing by exporters. Despite the slight slowdown in demand, suppliers have held firm in their pricing strategy.
Looking at the overall trends for Q1 2024, there has been a 5% decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year. However, there has been an 18% increase in prices compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Furthermore, there has been an 8% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter.
As of the end of the quarter, the latest price for Carbon Black N220 Grade CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE stands at USD 1380/MT. The pricing environment for Carbon Black in the MEA region has been positive, with increasing prices driven by tightening supplies and strong demand.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Prices of Carbon Black showed bullish market sentiment in Q4FY23 largely owing to falling mortgage rates and increased consumer spending. In the month of October, price rise in the carbon markets was largely due to past deliveries of orders as US Auto Union strikes ended, depleting the carbon black inventories with the major tire suppliers. Alongside, EV demand also remained stable.
Energy and crude oil prices started declining amidst strong inventory reserves by EU for the winter and delayed requirements for heating oils. Consumer gasoline and electricity prices started deflating, while mortgage rates remained on the higher end, consumption and private vehicular movements remained restricted keeping down the consumer driven carbon black markets.
In the month of November and December, energy prices depleted further, mortgage rates fell, demand for private vehicular movement went up with consumers willing to spend for leisure and travel activities. Replacement tire markets showed uptick reflected which pulled up the prices of carbon black in the given months. By the end of December, demand of carbon black turned down amidst rising supply challenges due to Houthi attacks, slowing of demand from EV section and falling replacement tire demand as Winter surged subduing carbon black markets and overall demand sentiment. US Federal Reserve signaled a delayed rate cuts program largely owing to global uncertainties and inflationary pressure in energy and food prices.
Europe
Prices of Carbon Black in Europe showed mixed sentiment in Europe in Q4FY23. Prices fell in the month of October and November while showed uptick in the month of December. In the months of October and November, prices were largely guided by the imports from Russia and Middle East for Carbon Black. Replacement tire markets largely remained subdued due to high fuel and electricity charges. Carbon Black market was largely driven by new EV and conventional vehicle sales subsidized by the European governments for transition economies. Mortgage rates continued to fall in the entire quarter hitting lowermost in December as inflation premium declined significantly. While inflationary pressure still remained, consumer movements showed uptick reflected in improvement in demand for carbon black for replacement tire markets. Energy prices dropped significantly while still remained higher than pre-pandemic levels. By the mid of December, speculative destocking of Carbon Black began by the suppliers as major EU zone States to cut down state subsidy for sustainable transition. Demand for new EVs showed bearish trends. By the last week of December, prices recovered amidst speculative stocking up by European suppliers as Houthi attacks in Red sea continued. European sanctions on Russian imports to become affective by July 2024.
Asia Pacific
Prices of Carbon Black in Asia-Pacific showed bearish sentiment in Q4FY23. Prices remained subdued largely owing to oversupply and weak demand sentiments from the Chinese markets. Chinese private consumption remained subdued amidst largely owing to large contributions of private investments in real estate sector which currently in doldrums. Export demand of Carbon Black from China remained subdued due to protectionism and lower export volumes. Destocking of Carbon Black was observed in Chinese, Thai and Malaysian markets largely owing to oversupply. South Korean and Japanese markets remained largely stable with demand for exports of EV picked up in November. High interest rates coupled with high food and energy inflation pulled down domestic demand sentiments in Asia Pacific region. Production and Manufacturing index remained subdued with consecutive contraction observed in newer orders and output due to overstocking of carbon black and derivatives. Indian markets remained resilient in October and November while demand subdued due to cold weather and lower rural demand in December leading to further destocking in APAC markets. Towards the end of December, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels triggered rising freight charges and overseas importers of Carbon Black started reducing newer orders as Europe and American markets observed seasonal demand slump amidst cold spell. Thai markets destocked in the regional markets due to lower tourism and petrochemical exports by December last week.
Middle East Asia (MEA)
Carbon Black prices in the MEA region remained stable in Q4 2023. The market witnessed oversupply and weak demand due to EU's limit on imports, leading to a subdued replacement market in Europe. Logistics activities were affected by adverse weather and high water levels, leading to lower capacity utilization. Natural gas and crude prices remained low, cooling off cost pressures. The UAE market saw a decline in tire demand due to seasonality and transportation challenges, leading to a significant inventory buildup and lower demand sentiment. The country's SBR demand also showed a decline, while the downstream rubber and tire industries' demand sentiment remained weak due to affordability issues. The Russian carbon black market faced export restrictions in Europe, leading to oversupply and lower prices. UAE's dependence on Russian carbon black imports also affected the market. The currency remained stable against the US dollar. The trend for Carbon Black in the UAE was bearish, with moderate to high supply and low demand. The quarter ending price of Carbon Black N220 Grade CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE was USD 1122/MT.
