For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American C9 solvent market experienced a notable decline in prices, primarily driven by weak demand from key downstream industries, particularly paints and coatings, couple with the diminished end-use automotive sector. This sluggish demand created a surplus of inventory, placing additional downward pressure on pricing. The overall pricing environment was further influenced by a significant decrease in crude oil prices, which saw a 7% drop compared to the previous quarter.
The lower crude oil prices can be attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand from major economies such as India and China. Initially, there were expectations of increased summer fuel consumption in North America, which supported prices; however, rising inventories of crude oil and gasoline indicated weaker-than-anticipated demand, contributing to the overall price drop.
By the end of the quarter, C9 solvent prices reflected this downward trend, with a significant decrease in the second half compared to the first half. The market concluded with a persistently bearish sentiment, as the ongoing challenges in downstream demand and upstream pricing dynamics shaped the landscape.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a significant decline in C9 Solvent prices, marked by a substantial 15% drop compared to the same quarter last year. This sharp downturn was primarily driven by several interrelated factors, including weak demand from critical downstream sectors such as paints, coatings, and construction. Additionally, while feedstock prices remained stable, they were generally lower, contributing to the overall price pressure.
The market faced further challenges from rising global freight rates, which escalated transportation costs and adversely affected product pricing, as trade volumes remained low. India was particularly impacted, experiencing the most significant price changes, in line with the broader negative trend across the region. Throughout the quarter, prices consistently declined, showing a 3% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a challenging pricing environment and diminishing market confidence.
By the end of the quarter, C9 Solvent prices Ex-Dahej in India were recorded at USD 980/MT, highlighting the prevailing downward trajectory in pricing and the ongoing struggles within the market landscape.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European C9 solvent market experienced a marked decline in prices, primarily driven by low demand from downstream sectors, particularly paints and coatings, alongside a weakened automotive market. This downturn can be linked to the broader economic challenges affecting the region, which contributed to reduced consumption levels. The diminishing demand created excess inventory, further pressuring prices downward. The influence of upstream crude oil prices significantly impacted the C9 solvent market, as crude oil prices also saw a substantial decline. The European crude oil market faced a 7% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, with an 8% drop from the previous quarter. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, coupled with concerns about weakening global economic conditions, notably in China, compounded the negative sentiment across the market. Germany, as a key player in the European region, experienced notable price fluctuations that mirrored the overall trends in the market. By the end of the quarter, the prevailing pricing dynamics reflected a bearish sentiment, signaling ongoing challenges for C9 solvent producers in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American C9 Solvent market experienced significant price fluctuations due to several key factors. Prices for C9 Solvent increased this quarter, driven by higher production costs, robust demand from the construction sector, and ongoing global geopolitical tensions.
Elevated crude oil prices raised production costs, pushing market prices higher. Additionally, challenges in the global freight industry, such as rising freight rates and shipping delays, further increased the costs of importing raw materials and finished products. In the USA, the market saw the most notable price changes, reflecting strong demand across various sectors, including construction.
Despite a decrease in C9 Solvent prices compared to the same quarter last year, there was a modest rise from the previous quarter of 2024, indicating a recovery phase. A slight increase was observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. Overall, despite rising production costs and fluctuating demand, the market sentiment remained positive, fostering a stable and cautiously optimistic pricing environment.
APAC
During Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a declining trend in C9 Solvent prices, primarily influenced by several key factors. One significant factor was the overall decrease in the price of feedstock crude oil, which had a direct impact on the production costs of C9 Solvent. Additionally, subdued demand from downstream industries, such as paints and coatings, contributed to the decreasing prices. The market also faced challenges due to low trading activity and lackluster demand from the construction sector. These factors combined to create a bearish market sentiment, resulting in a decline in C9 Solvent prices. South Korea, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. The overall trend in the country mirrored the APAC region, with prices experiencing a continuous decline. Seasonality and correlation in price changes played a role, with the second quarter historically experiencing lower demand compared to the first quarter. The percentage change from the same quarter last year was not provided, but the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 was recorded at -1%. Furthermore, there was a -1% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. As of the end of the quarter, the price of C9 Solvent FOB Busan in South Korea stood at USD 985/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for C9 Solvent in the APAC region during Q2 2024 was negative, characterized by declining prices influenced by factors such as low demand, reduced trading activity, and lower feedstock crude oil prices.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the MEA region witnessed a significant decrease in prices of C9 Solvent, with the United Arab Emirates experiencing the maximum price changes. Several factors contributed to the declining market prices. First, there was an influx of cheaper imports from overseas, particularly from Asian countries, which resulted in abundant availability of the product in the market. This increased competition and led to traders implementing discounts to alleviate pressure on existing stockpiles. Secondly, the off-demand winter season dampened the demand for C9 Solvent in the region. The sluggish demand, combined with high inventories at ports, further pushed prices down. Additionally, the price of upstream crude oil, which has a direct impact on C9 Solvent prices, remained relatively restrained during this period. Looking specifically at the United Arab Emirates, the market experienced a negative pricing trend throughout the quarter. The overall price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at -7%, indicating a significant decline. Moreover, there was a -3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting a downward trajectory. The quarter-ending price for C9 Solvent in the UAE stood at USD 1075/MT, further confirming the decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Overall, the MEA region, particularly the UAE, faced a challenging market situation with high supply and low demand, leading to a bearish pricing trend for C9 Solvent in Q2 2024.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European C9 Solvent market experienced a dynamic and upward pricing trend. This increase was primarily driven by higher feedstock costs and escalating freight rates and resulted a bullish trend in the European market. The cost of feedstock Crude Oil rose, directly impacting production expenses, while the global container freight index surged by over 30%, inflating logistical costs. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential crude oil supply disruptions, further boosting upstream costs. Strong demand for the product from the downstream construction and automobile sectors supported the market, despite concerns about gasoline demand and overall production expenses. In Germany, significant price changes were noted, largely influenced by rising feedstock costs and robust demand from key industries. Prices remained stable compared to the previous quarter but fell from the same period last year due to lower baseline figures. The price increase was observed between the first and second halves of the quarter, indicating a steady climb.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the price of C9 Solvent exhibited an overall bearish trend in the North American market. During this period, the US market experienced a significant price decline for C9 Solvent, largely due to increased imports from overseas offering more competitive pricing.
Additionally, demand from the downstream Paints and Coating industry weakened following the festive seasons. The domestic market maintained ample product supply, including inventories at ports. This surplus, combined with subdued demand in the downstream sector and heightened selling pressures, contributed to the market's bearish trajectory. Towards the end of the quarter, the normalization of the Red Sea crises, declining freight rates, and improved product supply further supported the bearish trend in the US C9 Solvent market.
Notably, the construction industry saw positive growth, with annual statistics revealing a 14% increase in completed houses compared to February 2023. Real estate developers remained active, evidenced by an 11.3% rise in newly constructed houses listed in February 2024. In summary, the first quarter of 2024 witnessed a downward price trend for C9 Solvent in the North American market, driven by increased imports, weakened demand in the paints and coatings sector, and favourable developments in the construction industry towards the quarter's end.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European C9 Solvent market faced a bearish trend, particularly evident in Germany where prices notably declined. This decline was primarily influenced by increased imports of cheaper alternatives from overseas and reduced raw material costs. Demand for C9 Solvent from the downstream Paints and Coating industry remained subdued, especially following the festive seasons. Throughout the quarter, the domestic market maintained ample product supply, including inventories at ports. Sluggish demand in the downstream market, coupled with increased selling pressures on C9 Solvent, further accentuated the market's bearish trend. The end use construction industry experienced a notable decline in demand, reflecting a broader downturn in Germany's construction sector by the end of the quarter. Constructors expressed pessimism amidst subdued demand attributed to high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Housing projects, in particular, saw a significant decrease among the three main construction categories. Commercial projects also contracted, albeit at a slower rate compared to previous months, while civil engineering activity saw a solid contraction throughout March. Additionally, new orders continued to decline due to constrained demand stemming from tight financial conditions, elevated prices, and prevailing market uncertainty in the sector.
APAC
During Q1 2024, the C9 Solvent market in the APAC region experienced a stable pricing environment. The prices remained unchanged for several weeks, driven by a balanced demand-supply gap. The demand for the product has been consistently low, resulting in cautious trading activities and optimized inventories. Additionally, the falling crude oil prices in the global market further supported the stable price trend for C9 Solvent. Among the countries in the APAC region, South Korea witnessed the maximum price changes. The overall trend in South Korea showed stability, with prices remaining relatively constant throughout the quarter. This stability can be attributed to optimized inventories and a moderate demand-supply equilibrium in the market. There was no significant seasonality observed in the price changes for C9 Solvent during Q1 2024. The percentage change from the same quarter last year was not found, and the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was also not specified. In conclusion, the pricing environment for C9 Solvent in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be characterized as stable. The prices remained unchanged for several weeks, reflecting a balanced demand-supply gap and optimized inventories. South Korea, in particular, experienced stability in prices throughout the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for C9 Solvent FOB Busan in South Korea was recorded at USD 1000/MT.
MEA
C9 Solvent pricing in the MEA region during Q1 2024 has been characterized by various factors that have influenced market prices. The United Arab Emirates, in particular, has experienced significant price changes. In the MEA region, the market for C9 Solvent has been influenced by factors such as costly imports from overseas, fluctuations in feedstock Crude Oil prices, and global growth concerns. The decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to extend oil output cuts has also had an impact on prices. In the United Arab Emirates, the market has seen fluctuations in supply dynamics, with low availability in the initial half of the quarter due to the Red Sea shipping disruption. However, supply improved in the latter half, boosting trading activities. Demand has remained stable, particularly from the downstream paints and coating industry. Overall, the market sentiment has been bullish, with prices increasing in February and remaining stable in March. The price of C9 Solvent in the UAE has increased by 1% in February compared to the previous month. Looking at the quarterly trends, there has been a positive outlook for Q1 2024. Prices have seen stability after frequent revisions, and the market is likely to remain optimistic. The price of feedstock Crude Oil is expected to increase, which may impact the price of C9 Solvent. In conclusion, the pricing environment for C9 Solvent in the MEA region, and specifically in the United Arab Emirates, has been influenced by various factors. Prices have experienced fluctuations but have remained stable overall. The market has shown a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
During the last quarter of 2023, the C9 Solvent market in North America witnessed a decline in prices. The foremost factor contributing to this trend was a decrease in demand, primarily attributable to challenges within the construction industry, leading to diminished buying interest among end-users.
Furthermore, the supply of C9 Solvent remained consistently high throughout the quarter, as manufacturers proactively produced the product in anticipation of future demand. However, the abundant availability of the product in the market exerted downward pressure on pricing. The United States, being the focal point of this analysis, witnessed a substantial downturn in C9 Solvent prices during the quarter. Specifically, the price of C9 Solvent in the USA decrease compared to the previous quarter. This decline was predominantly driven by the confluence of low demand and ample supply in the market. Additionally, the year-on-year comparison reflected a decrease in prices for the same quarter of the previous year.
The prevailing pricing trend in the USA during this quarter was profoundly influenced by the aforementioned factors, collectively contributing to a bearish market sentiment. In summary, the market dynamics for C9 Solvent in North America during the fourth quarter of 2023 were predominantly shaped by low demand, ample supply, and a discernible downward pricing trend in the USA.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, the C9 Solvent market in the European region displayed a downward or bearish trend. The market contended with weakened overall demand from the downstream paints and coating industry, supply chain disruptions in countries like Germany and Belgium, and a bearish pricing strategy adopted by manufacturers. Germany, being the largest market in the region, saw destocking activities impacting prices. Despite ample product availability, the market found support in expected economic improvements and increased demand from the construction sector. Comparing the quarter, there was a significant decrease in prices compared to the same quarter of the previous year and also a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The market continued to grapple with the trend of offloading inventories, as industry players strategically managed stock levels in anticipation of the upcoming winter holidays. Contributing factors to the market dynamics included the prevalence of cheaper imports of C9 Solvent from overseas, high production costs, and obstacles in trading activities attributed to the winter season. In summary, Europe's C9 Solvent market grappled with challenges in Q4 2023, balancing low demand and supply chain disruptions with glimpses of optimism in economic activities and increased demand in specific sectors.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, C9 Solvent market experienced a bearish trend in the APAC region. Firstly, the falling crude oil value has had a significant effect on the downstream derivatives, including C9 and C10 solvents. This decline in feedstock crude oil prices has led to a decrease in the price of C9 Solvent, resulting in a 2.3% decrease in price from the previous quarter. Furthermore, the demand for C9 Solvent is expected to decline as traders engage in destocking practices by the end of the year. This decrease in demand has further contributed to the price decline. In South Korea, the pricing of C9 Solvent has experienced a bearish trend. The price of C9 Solvent in South Korea has shown a negative percentage change of 8% from the previous quarter. This decline was attributed to factors such as the falling crude oil value and the decrease in demand for the product. However, specific details regarding any plant shutdowns in South Korea were not provided. The latest price of C9 Solvent FOB Busan in South Korea for the current quarter is USD 1010/MT. This pricing reflects the impact of the aforementioned factors on the market. Overall, the fourth quarter of 2023 has been characterized by a decline in C9 Solvent prices in the APAC region, particularly in South Korea, due to the falling crude oil value and decreased demand.
MEA
During the last quarter of 2023, there was a significant decrease in prices observed in the C9 Solvent market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA), spanning from October to December 2023. This downward trend was influenced by the influx of cheaper imports from overseas and a state of moderate to low demand within the region. The concurrent ease in global crude oil prices, a crucial feedstock for C9 solvent production, alongside continuous and cost-effective supplies, contributed significantly to the observed reduction in prices. Particularly, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw a substantial 7.5% decline in C9 Solvent prices in November 2023 compared to the preceding month. This decline was driven by competitive imports and a relief in cost pressures emanating from the global crude oil market. Despite the price decrease, the overall consumption of C9 Solvent remained stable in the UAE, and non-oil activities sustained a consistent pace. Notably, there were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. As the quarter concluded, the price of C9 Solvent in the UAE was recorded at approximately USD 1170/MT CFR Jebel Ali.
