For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter witnessed mixed pricing trends due to varied demand from downstream industries including dyes, perfumes, and agrochemicals. In Q3 2024, anisole prices have shown notable variability, influenced by fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics. This mixed pricing trend reflected the ongoing adjustments in the market as manufacturers responded to changing consumption patterns.
As key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and fragrances began to recover from earlier slowdowns, there has been an uptick in demand for anisole. This has led to periods of price increases, particularly when demand outstripped supply. The prices of raw materials, particularly phenol, have remained volatile, directly affecting anisole pricing. Disruptions in supply chains and fluctuations in crude oil prices have contributed to this volatility, leading to mixed pricing outcomes.
The North American anisole market was also affected by global trends, particularly from Asia and Europe. Any significant price movements in these regions did impact North American prices, creating a mixed trend. Overall, the mixed pricing trend of anisole in the North American market in Q3 2024 was shaped by a complex interplay of demand fluctuations, supply chain dynamics, raw material costs, and competitive pressures.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Anisole market in the APAC region experienced a notable increase in prices, particularly in China. The quarter has been characterized by a surge in demand from downstream industries such as perfumes and dyes, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and subsequent price hikes. Factors such as consistent production levels, stable supply of raw materials like phenol, and steady industry activity have contributed to the price uptrend. China, in particular, has witnessed significant price changes, reflecting a robust and dynamic market environment. The quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5% indicated a positive momentum in pricing. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, with a 0.3% price difference, highlighted the upward trend in prices. The quarter-ending price of USD 2300/MT of Anisole FOB Qingdao in China indicated a stable and increasing pricing environment, driven by growing demand and market factors.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Anisole market saw mixed pricing trends in the European region. Anisole prices in Europe varied due to fluctuating supply and demand dynamics. The mixed price pattern reflects regional variations in demand and manufacturing capacity. The rebound in demand from end-use sectors, notably pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals, has resulted in price hikes during high-demand periods. This increased demand has periodically exceeded supply, driving prices higher. The volatility of raw material costs, such as methanol and phenol, has had a considerable influence on anisole prices. Any increases in raw material costs have immediately resulted in varied pricing patterns, with manufacturers altering prices proportionately. Ongoing supply chain issues, worsened by geopolitical tensions and logistics interruptions, have impacted manufacturing capacity. Price spikes have occasionally occurred as a result of limited availability caused by these difficulties. Overall, the anisole price trend is mixed. Overall, the mixed pricing pattern of anisole in Europe for Q3 2024 is driven by a complex interaction of demand recovery, raw material volatility, competitive dynamics, and regulatory concerns, resulting in a volatile market environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Anisole market in the USA exhibited a mixed price trend, influenced by average demand from downstream sectors such as perfumes, dyes, and agrochemicals. The perfume industry maintained consistent consumer spending and product launches, providing stable demand for Anisole. Meanwhile, the dyes sector experienced variable demand due to irregular production schedules and inventory adjustments, contributing to price fluctuations. The agrochemical sector showed moderate demand, driven by seasonal agricultural activities, further adding to the mixed pricing scenario.
Increased production costs for Anisole were a significant factor, driven by higher prices for upstream raw materials, and elevated energy costs. In June, energy input costs, notably WTI crude futures, remained at $82 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The persistent Israel-Hamas conflict, despite attempts at resolution through US-backed mediation, continued to contribute to geopolitical uncertainty. Despite these challenges, the supply of Anisole remained stable, with manufacturers maintaining adequate inventory levels to meet the average demand from downstream industries. Market participants, however, adopted cautious procurement strategies due to economic uncertainties, which further contributed to the mixed price trend.
In summary, the second quarter of 2024 for Anisole in the USA was characterized by a mixed price trend, stable demand from the perfume industry, variable demand from the dyes sector, moderate demand from agrochemicals, and increased production costs, creating a complex and cautious market environment.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable shift in Anisole pricing across the APAC region, primarily influenced by a combination of robust demand from downstream sectors, particularly the perfume, dyes, and agrochemical industries, and supply chain dynamics. Several factors significantly impacted the market, including active procurement from end-use industries, anticipated seasonal demand increases, and strategic manufacturing adjustments responding to upstream costs and market conditions.
Focusing exclusively on China, the region experienced the most substantial price volatility. The correlation between heightened global oil prices and increased freight charges contributed to Anisole's price movement. Additionally, post-holiday manufacturing resumption and the anticipation of peak season for perfumes and dyes further bolstered demand. The seasonality effect, combined with the limited availability of finished goods, led to a slight upward trend in prices across the quarter.
The quarter began with stable pricing, which saw a cumulative 2% increment by its end. Concluding at USD 2200/MT FOB Qingdao, the pricing scenario reflects a cautiously optimistic market sentiment, driven by strategic supply management and consistent downstream demand recovery.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the Anisole market in Europe faced a mixed pricing environment due to varied demand from downstream sectors, including dyes, perfumes, and agrochemicals. Demand from the perfume industry remained stable, driven by ongoing consumer interest and the introduction of new products. However, the dyes sector encountered fluctuating demand due to irregular production schedules and inventory management challenges. The agrochemical sector experienced moderate demand, influenced by seasonal agricultural patterns and market conditions.
Despite these mixed demand trends, Anisole prices in Europe showed limited variation, reflecting a generally stable market. An adequate supply of Anisole was available to meet the needs of downstream industries, preventing significant price swings. Production costs were impacted by rising prices for upstream raw materials, as well as higher energy costs. Geopolitical uncertainties, including fluctuations in crude oil prices, added to the cost pressures faced by manufacturers.
Economic uncertainties across Europe led to cautious procurement practices among market participants, affecting overall market dynamics. Despite these challenges, the supply chain for Anisole remained stable, with no major disruptions affecting availability. In summary, the second quarter of 2024 for Anisole in Europe was marked by a mixed price trend, stable demand from the perfume sector, variable demand from dyes, moderate demand from agrochemicals, and increased production costs, contributing to a complex market landscape.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, Anisole prices have been on a soft note in the US market as prices decreased in the exporting market. The demand for Anisole from the downstream agrochemical, dyes, and perfume industry has remained soft amid null season demand, leading to the bearish market sentiments of Anisole among the sellers.
The market transactions were mainly based on small orders. On the other hand, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the annual inflation rate in the US has edged up to 3.2% in February 2024, compared to 3.1% in January. Foreseeing the rise in inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has effectively ruled out the possibility of an interest rate cut before June, keeping it in the 5.25% to 5.5% range since last July. The firm inflationary pressure has further impacted the purchasing power of consumers which further deteriorated the market sentiments of Anisole.
Meanwhile, imports from Asia have turned cheaper as prices decreased in the exporting market amid sufficient inventories which in turn led to low imported prices of Anisole in the US market. Additionally, spot prices for the China-US routes shifted direction as of mid-February. The cumulative gains were relatively smaller in China-US routes during the upswing. Hence, the slump arrived later at a slower pace. According to Freightos, the latest index for China/East Asia - North America West Coast decreased by 7% to stand at $4,419/FEU while the index for the East Coast was also down by 8% to $6,107/FEU as of March 2024. Despite this, material availability was limited as buyers were reluctant to stock the material due to weak demand.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of Anisole have persistently decreased in the Chinese market during the first quarter of 2024. The reduced market operations amid the Chinese Lunar New Year Holidays have deteriorated the market sentiments of Anisole. As a result, the manufacturers have reduced their prices throughout the quarter. In addition, the feedstock Phenol prices have decreased which resulted in the low production cost of Anisole in the domestic market supporting the prices to follow a downtrend. Although, the persistent strength in the crude oil prices, failed to propel the Anisole prices higher amid a holiday-shortened month but put a floor under prices in the domestic market. Furthermore, the downstream manufacturers have avoided bulk restocking as the demand from the downstream derivative industry has shown no signs of significant improvement. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream agrochemical, dyes, and perfume industries have remained tepid with limited instances of new orders reported by market players in the given time frame. Meanwhile, inquiries from the overseas market have also been observed on the lighter side amid macroeconomic headwinds which dampened the end-user demand. As a result, manufacturers of Anisole have operated their prices at low level in the domestic market.
Europe
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, Anisole prices have been marching higher in the European market as rallying crude oil and production hiccups fuelled relentless hikes during the quarter. Supply chain issues driven by the Red Sea crisis added to the bullish scene. In addition, the feedstock Phenol prices have increased which resulted in the strong domestic production cost of Anisole, supporting the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market. Brent Crude prices have remained above $80 per barrel for much of February, indicating a tightening in the physical market due to ongoing OPEC+ production cuts and the prolonged rerouting of cargoes away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The hiked Crude Oil prices have further pressured the upstream Phenol to remain buoyant. In addition, the manufacturing firms have been operating at reduced rates in the wake of challenging economic conditions across the regional market. As a result of low operating rates, manufacturing firms have faced increased supply-side pressures as there was relatively limited availability of the finished goods. However, demand for Anisole from the downstream agrochemical, dyes, and perfume industry was average in the regional market amid unfavourable economic conditions. Nonetheless, it had a limited bearing on the prices of Anisole.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Anisole prices have continued to rise in the US market throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. The latest increase in the prices was majorly attributed to limited material availability within the domestic market. The feedstock Phenol prices have increased which resulted in the high production cost of Anisole, supporting the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market.
Although, on the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream perfume, and dyes as well as from the agrochemical industry have remained tepid amid off-season dullness it was insufficient to drive the price realizations of Anisole at the lower end in the domestic market. Additionally, the macroeconomic headwinds such as high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressure have further eroded the purchasing power of end-users. Although, demand from the Asian market has slightly improved which promoted the manufacturers to revise their export prices.
In terms of domestic production, the manufacturing firms have remained under pressure as demand from the downstream industry has not fully recovered. The availability of finished stock of Anisole was limited to cater to the overall downstream demand. Furthermore, in December, the U.S. manufacturing sector experienced a continued contraction. This contraction reflects the persistent softness in demand, prompting the manufacturing firms to manage their production outputs accordingly. As per the market sources, manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 points in December, down from 49.40 in November. In addition, the data from the Federal Reserve has also shown that Manufacturing Production in the United States decreased 0.8% year-on-year in November 2023.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of Anisole have experienced a mixed sentiment in the Asian market during the fourth quarter of 2023. During the initial of Q4 2023, Anisole prices have gained an upward pace in the Chinese market on the back of firm cost support and stable procurement in the domestic market. International crude oil prices have increased consistently and consequently, the rise in upstream Phenol prices has culminated in the increased cost support for Anisole in the domestic market. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream derivative (agrochemical, dyes, perfume) industry have remained moderate. The market transactions were mainly based on small orders in the domestic market. However, towards the end of Q4 2023, Anisole prices have plunged in the domestic market. The feedstock Phenol prices have decreased which negatively impacted the production cost of Anisole in the domestic market. These supported the prices to follow a downtrend in the domestic market. In addition, demand for Anisole from the downstream agrochemical, dyes, and perfume industry has remained subdued which led to a price decline in the domestic market. At the same time, demand from the overseas market has also been observed on the lower end since the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Asia began raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at a multi-decade high. As per the sources, exports dropped from 6.4% to $ 274.8 billion indicating a weak global demand for Chinese goods. Additionally, support measures implemented by Beijing have provided some support for a hopeful recovery. However, lingering challenges such as a prolonged property crisis and subdued global demand continue to pose concerns for policymakers towards the Q4-end. Furthermore, in addition, the destocking season towards the year-end has further prompted the manufacturers to keep the Anisole prices at low levels.
Europe
The European market witnessed varied trends in Anisole prices throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. In October, there was a substantial increase in Anisole prices in the German market, primarily driven by limited material availability domestically. The surge in feedstock Phenol prices, caused by tight supply, contributed to elevated production costs for Anisole in the domestic market, consequently pushing overall prices upwards. However, in November and December of 2023, Anisole prices experienced a decline in the domestic market. This downturn was attributed to tepid demand from the downstream agrochemical, perfume, and dyes industries influenced by macroeconomic challenges such as persistent inflationary pressure, high-interest rates, and subdued seasonality. These factors collectively exerted downward pressure on Anisole prices across the domestic market. Furthermore, the cost support from feedstock Phenol was limited on Anisole prices as its prices settled on the lower end in the domestic market. In addition, the manufacturing firms have been operating at reduced rates as demand from the downstream industry has not fully recovered in the domestic market. Furthermore, the German manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index remained in the contraction (i.e., below 50) indicating a contraction in industrial and manufacturing activity. Apart from this, manufacturers engaged in destocking activities, clearing out their inventories at reduced prices.
