For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a challenging quarter characterized by decreasing prices. Several significant factors influenced market prices, including oversupply issues, weakening demand from key sectors like automotive, and uncertainties surrounding global trade dynamics.
Specifically, Mexico experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 2% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The downturn in Mexico's manufacturing sector, which is partially due to a slump in U.S. manufacturing, has affected demand levels. Additionally, energy markets have influenced the situation, as oil prices fell after the hurricane season, which may help reduce costs for manufacturers.
The overall trends in Mexico reflected a seasonality impact, with a correlation in price changes showing a consistent downward trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicated a 6% decrease, highlighting the sustained pressure on prices. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 3192/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
The Europe region's Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in Q3 2024 witnessed a notable decrease in prices, influenced by several significant factors. Specifically, Turkey experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 3% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. An oversupply, coupled with diminished demand from key downstream industries like electronics and manufacturing, has been instrumental in this price reduction. The automotive sector's weakened consumption has further intensified the drop. Turkey, in particular, saw the most drastic price fluctuations, mirroring a broader economic deceleration as evidenced by lower sales volumes across multiple industries. The price disparity of 7% between the first and second halves of the quarter underscores the persistent downward pressure on prices. The current market sentiment towards Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in Europe is decidedly bearish, as indicated by the quarter's concluding price point. As the quarter came to a close, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Turkey was recorded at USD 3192 per metric ton, delivered Ex Ankara.
APAC
In the APAC region, the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingots has maintained a consistent level throughout the third quarter of 2024. Market prices remained relatively stable due to several influential factors. The supply demand balance played a crucial role, with a steady supply of aluminium alloys meeting moderate demand levels. Raw material availability and production costs were stable, contributing to the overall price stability. Additionally, economic uncertainties and cautious trading behavior influenced market dynamics, leading to a balanced pricing environment.
In Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this period. However, from the previous quarter in 2024, there was a slight decrease of 2%, suggesting some market fluctuations. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variations, maintaining a stable pricing environment. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain current interest rates provides a stable economic environment, potentially supporting the aluminium alloy market and related industries. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) stood at USD 2499/MT CFR Tokyo, reflecting the prevailing stability in Japan's market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a pronounced upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of critical factors. Supply-side constraints, including raw material shortages and logistical disruptions, played a pivotal role in bolstering prices. Additionally, robust demand from key industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and energy transition applications further intensified market dynamics. Environmental regulations and sustainability mandates have also elevated production costs, contributing to the pricing surge. The market's bullish sentiment was underpinned by heightened investor interest and strategic stockpiling amid geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Focusing on the USA, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market epitomized this quarter’s bullish trend, marked by a significant price escalation. Seasonality influenced price patterns, with demand peaking due to summer-driven consumption and industrial activity ramp-up. A comparative analysis within the quarter revealed a 2% price increment between the first and second halves, indicating sustained upward momentum.
Concluding the quarter, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot price stood at USD 3374/MT DEL Alabama (USA), encapsulating the overall positive sentiment. The pricing environment remained robust, driven by persistent supply constraints, heightened industrial demand, and strategic market behaviours, thereby affirming a stable-to-positive outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in North America.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a consistent upward trend in Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices in the Europe region, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant impetus for this rise has been the geopolitical tensions impacting energy costs and supply chains. As European energy prices soared, aluminium smelters faced increased production costs, catalysing higher market prices. The imposition of stringent environmental regulations also contributed to supply constraints, particularly in bauxite mining and alumina production, exacerbating the price surge. Furthermore, the ongoing sanctions on Russian aluminium have disrupted global supply chains, compelling European markets to seek alternative, often costlier, sources.
Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most pronounced price changes. The overall market sentiment in Germany remained largely positive, with the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter shows a 7% increment, indicating a steady upward trajectory throughout the period. This robust growth reflects the heightened demand from downstream industries, notably the automotive and construction sectors, which saw a moderate recovery. Seasonal factors also played a role, with manufacturing activities typically ramping up in the spring, further bolstering demand.
Concluding the quarter, the price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot stood at USD 3464/MT FD-Willich (Germany), signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent increase underscores the resilience of the German market amid broader European supply challenges, reflecting sustained demand and strategic market adjustments.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the APAC region witnessed a noticeable uptrend in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant driver was the robust demand from key sectors such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, wherein aluminium's lightweight and durable properties play a crucial role. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, constrained supply, further exacerbating the price elevation. Increased production costs, owing to rising energy prices and raw material expenses, also contributed to the upward momentum. Investment in new technologies and green initiatives aimed at reducing carbon footprints added to the operational costs, underpinning the higher pricing landscape.
Focusing on China, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend was bullish. Seasonal dynamics, such as heightened construction activities in the summer months, amplified demand, contributing to price hikes. The correlation between increased demand and reduced inventory levels was evident, reinforcing the upward trajectory. The price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in China rose comparing the first and second half of the quarter, there was a 1% price increment, reflecting a sustained positive sentiment.
The quarter ended with Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices at USD 2543/MT Ex Shanghai, indicating a stable yet progressively increasing pricing environment. This positive sentiment underscores the market's resilience amidst fluctuating global economic conditions and highlights the enduring strength of demand-supply dynamics in the APAC region's aluminium sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American market for Aluminium Alloy Ingot continued to face various factors that impacted the industry. The market situation remained bearish, with an oversupply of Aluminium Alloy Ingot and low demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Additionally, ongoing trade issues in the Panama and Suez Canals continued to disrupt the supply chain.
The uncertain macroeconomic environment and the contraction of the construction sector continued to contribute to the negative market outlook. Prices for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the US market further declined due to high inventories in domestic regions and weakened demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction. Market participants remained hesitant to make significant changes to their order positions due to the prevailing market uncertainties. Throughout the quarter, several plant shutdowns were observed, further impacting the availability of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. These shutdowns exacerbated the disruption in the supply chain, leading to a further decline in prices.
In summary, the first quarter of 2024 presented various challenges for the North American market for Aluminium Alloy Ingot, including a bearish market, trade disruptions, and a contracting construction sector.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed various factors that influenced the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. The market experienced a surge in demand from downstream industries, especially during the spring season and festive holidays. This led to an increase in manufacturing activity and a rise in orders for Aluminium Alloy Ingot. Additionally, trade routes in the Panama Canal and Red Sea were restored, resulting in smoother operations and improved market conditions. The supply of key feedstock materials, such as Bauxite and Alumina, faced fewer challenges, with stability returning after concerns arising from an oil depot explosion in Guinea were addressed. Furthermore, favourable weather conditions and increased construction activity led to a boost in demand from the construction sector. In Japan, which continued to experience significant price changes in the APAC region, the pricing trend for Aluminium Alloy Ingot remained relatively stable. However, the expansion of electric vehicle manufacturing and ongoing government initiatives supporting downstream industries continued to sustain demand for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Japan.
During the first quarter of 2024, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) CFR Tokyo in Japan stood at USD 2483/MT. Overall, the market outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the APAC region for the first quarter of 2024 is positive, with expectations of continued growth and stability.
Europe
Throughout the initial three months of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Aluminium Alloy Ingots in Europe were impacted by various contributing factors. Notably, there was a slight uptick in the global availability of aluminium alloy ingots due to substantial expansions in production capacities by leading producing nations. This surplus influx exerted slight downward pressure on pricing trends within Europe. Additionally, Petroleum Coke witnessed a decline in value during the early March. Simultaneously, Pet Coke rates in European markets, particularly in Germany, displayed a consistent downward trajectory. The equilibrium between market supply and demand remains delicately balanced, contingent upon individualized needs. Certain purchasers are opting to delay restocking in anticipation of potential price reductions. However, prices followed a bearish trend owing to the surplus supply and subdued demand scenario. The pricing landscape for Aluminium Alloy Ingots in Germany remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, devoid of notable seasonal fluctuations or correlations. In comparison to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the latest recorded price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A380) FD-Willich in Germany during the first quarter of 2024 stood at USD 3157/MT, showcasing consistency in pricing patterns.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market faced challenges in Q4 2023 due to various factors, resulting in a slight declining trend in December. Firstly, the demand for Aluminium Alloy Ingot remained moderate, with buyers taking a cautious approach amidst uncertain economic conditions. Secondly, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that aimed to boost the renewable energy sector fell short of expectations, limiting demand for Aluminium ingots in the American market.
Finally, the inventory level fluctuated due to recent construction deals that are expected to boost the utilization of Aluminium Ingots in the US spot market. The USA experienced a decline in Aluminium ingot prices during the initial week of October, while the final week of September saw an upswing driven by increased demand from the automotive and housing sectors.
The correlation price percentage for the USA in Q4 2023 was 1.1%, and the percentage change from the previous quarter was 2%. There was no plant shutdown observed in the USA during this period. The price percentage comparison of the first and second half of the quarter for the USA was 10%. The latest price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) DEL Alabama in the USA for Q4 2023 was USD 3679/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region's Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed notable changes and developments. The market was primarily influenced by factors such as limited supply, increased demand from the automotive and construction sectors, and disruptions in the bauxite supply chain.
These factors led to a surge in prices, with Japan being the most affected country in the region. The scarcity of crucial materials like Bauxite became evident due to restricted imports from major mining countries, and disruptions in the Panama Canal route negatively impacted supply from key producers. As a result, lead times were extended, and freight charges increased. On the demand side, the automotive and construction sectors experienced strong growth, leading to increased scrap imports and positive market sentiment.
The implementation of government policies and deals further supported the rising demand in the domestic market. In Japan, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) Ex-Tokyo reached USD 2545/MT in the fourth quarter. This represents a 2% increase compared to the previous quarter and a significant 81% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The price trend in Japan remained bullish throughout the quarter, driven by factors such as increasing demand, rising energy costs, and a decline in domestic supply. Overall, the APAC region experienced a dynamic and robust Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 was challenging for the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in Europe. The market witnessed a robust balance between demand and supply, maintaining a consistently stable environment. The anticipation of an increase in federal interest rates was seen as a positive catalyst, expected to enhance the overall economic landscape and boost market demand.
Despite initial concerns about weak economic conditions and a sluggish demand outlook affecting infrastructure projects, the delay in improvements surprisingly did not significantly impact the demand for Aluminium Alloy ingots. Remarkably, government initiatives aimed at fortifying the downstream construction sector played a crucial role in keeping Aluminum Alloy Ingot prices resiliently elevated.
In Germany, the market experienced notable positive shifts in pricing, driven by a healthy balance of demand and supply. The overall market situation remained steadfast with ample supply levels. The downstream automobile manufacturing industries continued to enjoy stability in demand, even amid lower supply rates. Optimism prevailed in the market, fueled by the perceived positive impact of potential federal interest rate increases by the European Central Bank. This outlook contributed to a buoyant market trend, showcasing resilience and potential for growth. The latest price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A380) FD-Willich in Germany for the last quarter was USD 3189/MT.
