For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American market experienced a mixed pricing trend for Acetaldehyde, particularly in the USA. The significant rise in Ethylene prices during Q3 2024 directly influenced Acetaldehyde production costs. Ethylene being a key raw material for Acetaldehyde, exerted upward pressure on production expenses.
The food and beverage industry, a major consumer of Acetaldehyde, exhibited fluctuating demand patterns during the quarter. Seasonal variations, changing consumer preferences, and potential economic factors may have led to inconsistent purchasing behavior, creating a mixed-demand landscape. Variations in Acetaldehyde pricing across different regions in the USA could be attributed to supply chain dynamics, regulatory environments, and logistical costs. Certain regions experienced stronger demand or more favorable production conditions, leading to price discrepancies.
International market conditions, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors, have also impacted domestic Acetaldehyde prices. Fluctuations in global production and demand for key inputs also contributed to the mixed pricing environment. The mixed pricing trend for Acetaldehyde in North America during Q3 2024 was a result of a complex interplay of factors, including upstream cost pressures, fluctuating demand from the food and beverage sector, regional variations, and competitive dynamics.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC market experienced a mixed pricing trend for Acetaldehyde, particularly in India. In early July, Acetaldehyde prices in India began to show signs of decline, primarily due to low consumption levels amidst ample product availability. However, as the month progressed, Acetaldehyde prices in India stabilized in August. This stability was supported by consistent demand from the food and beverage sector, coupled with sufficient supply to meet manufacturing requirements. The smooth supply chain and lack of significant shortages contributed to steady pricing in the domestic market. In September, prices in India experienced a mild increase despite weak downstream demand from the food and beverage sector. Sufficient finished goods inventory was available to satisfy market needs, but the overall trading environment remained subdued due to limited inquiries from downstream industries. Meanwhile, a decrease in crude oil prices did not negatively impact Acetaldehyde pricing, which maintained a bullish trend. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were notably lower.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Acetaldehyde market in Europe, particularly in Spain, experienced a steady upward trend in prices, primarily driven by seasonal demand dynamics and supply constraints. The primary drivers behind this increase were seasonal demand fluctuations and supply constraints. The holiday season, coupled with reduced production rates, created a supply-demand imbalance. Despite the reduced supply, the food and beverage sector, a major consumer of Acetaldehyde, maintained consistent demand. Manufacturers, however, exercised caution in their pricing strategies, focusing on immediate needs due to ample supply. The logistical challenges posed by the strike at the Port of Hamburg further exacerbated supply issues, contributing to upward price pressure. Overall, the combination of seasonal factors, supply constraints, and logistical challenges led to a steady increase in Acetaldehyde prices in Europe during Q3 2024. In Spain specifically, the market exhibited a consistent increase in prices throughout the quarter. The overall trend pointed towards positive sentiment, with seasonality and market correlations aligning with the increasing price environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were notably higher. The quarter-on-quarter comparison recorded a significant increase of 1%, with prices showing an incline of 4% between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 1430/MT of Acetaldehyde CFR Barcelona in Spain, reflecting the prevailing upward pricing trend.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the market for Acetaldehyde in the USA displayed a mixed price trend, influenced by varying demand and cost factors. Demand from key downstream industries, including food and beverages as well as chemicals, remained inconsistent, shaping the overall market conditions.
In the food and beverage sector, demand for Acetaldehyde was steady, supported by ongoing consumer consumption and production needs. However, the chemical sector experienced fluctuating demand due to uneven production schedules and inventory management practices. This disparity between the two major downstream sectors contributed to the mixed price trend observed during the quarter. Rising production costs added further complexity to the market dynamics. heightened energy costs, influenced by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices, further pressured production expenses.
Despite these challenges, the supply of Acetaldehyde remained stable, with no significant disruptions reported in the production or supply chain. Manufacturers managed to maintain adequate inventory levels to meet the varying demand from downstream industries. However, cautious procurement practices among market participants, driven by economic uncertainties, added to the mixed pricing environment.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has been a dynamic period for Acetaldehyde in the APAC region, characterized by significant upward pressure on prices. Key factors driving the market include heightened demand from downstream sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverages, coupled with rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions. Supply-side constraints, exacerbated by port congestion and increased ocean freight rates, further tightened the market. These factors collectively pushed Acetaldehyde prices higher, reflecting a robust and bullish market sentiment. Focusing on India, which experienced the most substantial price fluctuations, the market saw an overall positive pricing environment. The quarter observed an 8% decrease in prices compared to the same period last year, and a 4% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. In summary, the pricing environment for Acetaldehyde in Q2 2024 was marked by a complex interplay of demand and supply dynamics, alongside external economic pressures. Despite a negative year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparison, the intra-quarter growth and eventual stabilization of prices reflect a resilient and strengthening market trajectory in India.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Acetaldehyde market experienced stability, driven by a balanced interplay of supply and demand dynamics. The quarter was marked by moderate inquiries from the downstream Food and Beverage sector, which, coupled with sufficient upstream Ethylene availability, contributed to maintaining stable prices. Input cost pressures remained modest across the region, with natural gas and oil prices exerting minimal impact on production costs. This quarter also saw improved supply chain performance, mitigating any potential disruptions that could have influenced price volatility. In Spain, which experienced the most significant price movements within Europe, the overall market sentiment remained stable. The domestic demand for Acetaldehyde was consistent, particularly from the preservative industry, aligning with seasonal trends. Despite the broader European context of limited demand, Spain's market showed resilience. The quarter-on-quarter change from Q1 2024 was a modest 4%, reflecting a tempered but upward trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for Acetaldehyde Food Grade CFR Barcelona settled at USD 1360/MT, indicative of a steady market with no abrupt fluctuations. This constancy in prices highlights the effectiveness of the supply chain and the moderate yet adequate demand from key sectors, ensuring a stable pricing landscape throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Acetaldehyde prices have witnessed a bearish trend in the US market during the first quarter of 2024 in the wake of low raw material prices and weak demand dynamics. The reduction in inquiries from the downstream preservative industries was responsible for the price shift observed in the price realizations of Acetaldehyde.
The market has been in a depression in customer demand amid challenging macroeconomic conditions across the globe. Furthermore, the weaker economic conditions brought on by inflationary pressures have faltered the growth of the manufacturing sectors and as a result, the manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index remained in the contraction zone (Below 50 Points).
In addition, the cost support from feedstock Ethanol was limited on Acetaldehyde as its prices settled on the lower end throughout the quarter, contributing to the downward shift in the price realization of Acetaldehyde in the domestic market. Furthermore, the material availability was sufficient to meet the downstream demand which further weighed down the prices of Acetaldehyde in the domestic market.
Asia Pacific
Prices of Acetaldehyde have persistently decreased in the Indian market during the first quarter of 2024 as markets were reportedly flooded with low-priced cargoes, which were mostly Chinese shipments. However, feedstock Ethanol prices have showcased volatility throughout the quarter. In addition, demand for Acetaldehyde from the downstream preservative has been moderate due to the steady consumption from the food and preservative industry. Apart from this, India's retail inflation eased to 4.85 percent on an annual basis in March as against 5.09 percent in the previous month. The number has remained within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band of 2-6 percent. The drop-in inflation rate has alleviated the purchasing power of consumers. Furthermore, the imports from the Chinese market have turned cheaper which resulted in the low imported prices of Acetaldehyde in the Indian domestic market. On the other hand, the recent tension in the Red Sea crisis has had a limited impact on the supply of Acetaldehyde. Overall, the material availability was sufficient to meet the existing downstream demand. Thus, foreseeing the oversupply and steady downstream demand promoted the sellers to operate their prices at a low level in the domestic market.
Europe
Acetaldehyde prices have witnessed mixed sentiments across the European market during the first quarter of 2024. During the first half of 2024, Acetaldehyde prices have inched lower in the Spanish market. The demand for Acetaldehyde from the downstream preservative industry was average in the domestic market. The consumption of preservatives from the end-user food and beverages industry has been soft amid off-season dullness which weighed down the prices of Acetaldehyde within the domestic market. Furthermore, the persistent inflation and high interest have eroded the purchasing power of end-users, further dampening the market sentiments of Acetaldehyde. However, in the second half of 2024, Acetaldehyde prices recovered as prices increased in the exporting market. In addition, demand for Acetaldehyde from the downstream preservative industry has started to improve as consumption from the food and beverage sector has increased, contributing to the upward shift in the price realization of Acetaldehyde. Furthermore, the import from the German market has turned costly amid tight supply coupled with high production costs which resulted in the high imported prices of Acetaldehyde within the domestic market. Moreover, the material availability was limited to meet the existing downstream demand which further boosted the prices of Acetaldehyde in the domestic market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Acetaldehyde prices have witnessed a bearish rally across the US market throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. The cost pressure from feedstock Ethanol was limited on Acetaldehyde as its prices settled on the lower end throughout the quarter. On the demand front, the inquiries from the preservative industry have been tepid with limited instances of new orders reported by market players. Market participants report consumption of preservatives from the end-user food and beverages sector has slowed down in the wake of null season demand which weighed down the prices of Acetaldehyde in the domestic market. Furthermore, macroeconomic headwinds like persistent inflationary pressure and high-interest rates have further eroded the purchasing power of end-users.
In the meantime, demand from the overseas market has also been soft in recent months as macroeconomic challenges continue to keep consumer spending at bay. In addition, US Acetaldehyde producers face difficulties in raising export prices as buyers find it difficult to stomach. Consequently, prices have operated at a low level.
In terms of production, the manufacturing firms have been operating at reduced rates as demand from the downstream industry has not recovered yet. Despite this, material availability was sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand. Since the start of Q4, the US manufacturing purchasing manager index has remained in the contraction zone (i.e., below 50) indicating a deterioration in new orders and output. Apart from this, the turmoil in the Red Sea along with the prolonged drought in the Panama Canal has had a minimal impact on the supply of Acetaldehyde.
Asia-Pacific
Acetaldehyde prices have continued to decline in the Chinese market during the fourth quarter of 2023. China has been grappling with sluggish foreign trade amid slack global demand and a stalled recovery, despite the country's reopening after its strict COVID-19 controls were lifted late last year. The feedstock Ethanol prices have been stagnant throughout the quarter which resulted in the stable production cost of Acetaldehyde in the domestic market. In addition, the demand for Acetaldehyde from the downstream preservative industry has been dropped due to sluggish consumption from the end-user food and beverages industry. At the same time, demand from the overseas market has also been observed on the lower end since the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Asia began raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at a multi-decade high. As per the market sources, exports dropped from 6.4% to $ 274.8 billion indicating a weak global demand for Chinese goods. In terms of domestic production, the operating rates of Acetaldehyde manufacturing firms have remained under pressure. Furthermore, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in December. This decline is attributed to struggling factories facing weak demand, casting a shadow over the country's economic recovery. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 the previous month, remaining below the crucial 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. Overall, the material availability was sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand.
Europe
Acetaldehyde prices have showcased a see-saw trend in the European market during the fourth quarter of 2024. During October 2023, Acetaldehyde prices have inched higher in the Spanish market. The demand from the downstream preservative industry has increased as consumption from the food and beverages sector has improved in the domestic market. These led to the bullish market sentiments of Acetaldehyde among the manufacturers. Furthermore, imports from Germany and other exporting markets have also turned costly as prices increased in the exporting market which in turn led to high imported prices of Acetaldehyde in the Spanish domestic market. However, in November 2023, Acetaldehyde prices have unexpectedly dropped in the domestic market. The decline in the prices was majorly attributed to the weak demand from the food and beverages industry. The lukewarm demand has kept exerting pressure on the seller’s side as buyers either made limited purchases when needed or stayed in a wait-and-see perspective in the projection of additional decline. Furthermore, the material availability was sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand which weighed down the prices of Acetaldehyde across the domestic market. However, demand for Acetaldehyde from the food and beverages industry has rebounded due to the festive season. So, in order to gain profit margins, traders have increased their Acetaldehyde prices during December 2023. Nonetheless, the level of finished stock of Acetaldehyde was sufficient, but it had a minimal impact on the prices of Acetaldehyde in the domestic market.
