Vitamin B1 Prices Expected to Decline in the Global Market Amid Weak Demand

The global prices of Vitamin B1 are expected to decrease in December 2023. This trend can be attributed to factors such as market oversupply, subdued demand, and an economic slowdown. Vitamin B1, also known as thiamine, is a water-soluble vitamin with industrial applications, including its use in animal feed for enhancing livestock health, in pharmaceuticals to address thiamine deficiency-related conditions, and in food fortification initiatives. The recent decline in demand for Vitamin B1 from these sectors is likely contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

In December, China's manufacturing sector experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, as indicated by an authoritative factory survey. This trend can be attributed to the challenges faced by factories in coping with subdued demand, thereby casting a shadow over the prospects of the nation's economic revival. The official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December dropped to 49 from November's 49.4, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. The statistics bureau cited an increasingly complex, challenging, and uncertain external environment as a crucial factor in the ongoing decline. Major challenges include a decrease in overseas orders and insufficient demand from the domestic market, as highlighted by some companies in the survey. Domestic suppliers and manufacturers maintained substantial Vitamin B1 stocks, surpassing the reduced demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on prices. Since China is the main exporter to the USA and Germany, a comparable trend for Vitamin B1 is expected in both the US and German markets.

The German economy is expected to undergo a slight contraction in the fourth quarter of FY23, according to the nation's central bank. Additionally, a recent survey revealed an unexpected decline in business sentiments in Germany, marking the first such decrease in four months and providing additional evidence of an economic recession. Inflationary pressures have heightened towards the end of the fourth quarter, with companies reporting the most substantial increase in output prices in seven months, propelled by a notable rise in average costs. This rise in costs has the potential to impact consumer confidence, potentially leading to a decline in Vitamin B1 prices. A comparable trend for Vitamin B1 is anticipated in the United States. The US Federal Reserve has expressed its intent to leave the benchmark interest rate unaltered, keeping it within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision, upheld consistently over the past three meetings, signifies a dedication to the current monetary policy. This position might heighten pressure on consumer spending, potentially resulting in a decline in Vitamin B1 prices in the USA.

As per the analysis by ChemAnalyst, the outlook for Vitamin B1 prices in the coming months suggests a continued downward trajectory, primarily driven by persistent weak demand from end-user industries. Market participants are likely to prioritize destocking existing inventories at lower price quotes, maintaining an overall bearish sentiment for Vitamin B1 in the global market.