US and Asian Polycarbonate Prices Stable Despite Oversupply; Outlook Remains Weak

The Polycarbonate market experienced stability in the price trend at the end of September 2024 in the US and Asian markets. Manufacturers are facing pressure to lower factory prices, further straining profitability. Meanwhile, the stable pricing of raw materials, including bisphenol A, has provided only moderate cost support, with demand for Polycarbonate remaining weak. Industry experts predict that the Polycarbonate market will remain subdued in the coming months, as stagnant consumption and an oversupplied market challenge any potential rebound.

In September, the Asian Polycarbonate market witnessed a notable increase in operating rates. Despite this uptick in production, spot prices have remained at their lowest levels for the year, as weekly output increased significantly, resulting in a surplus of supply. The oversupply, coupled with limited maintenance shutdowns in the near term, has forced manufacturers to lower factory prices, further straining profitability in the sector. On the raw materials front, bisphenol A prices in China have remained relatively stable, although fluctuations in the prices of key feedstocks, phenol, and acetone have only offered moderate cost support. Regional demand for Polycarbonate has shown little improvement, with profitability continuing to be a challenge for producers. The market is bracing for an increase in bisphenol A supply, which is expected to further weaken its cost support for Polycarbonate manufacturing.

On the demand side, the Asian market remains stagnant, as the anticipated consumption boost during the traditional "Golden September" peak season in China failed to materialize.

As the third quarter comes to a close, US Polycarbonate prices also remained stable, with potential for downward movement in the fourth quarter of 2024. This outlook holds, barring major production disruptions, which could arise from an expected active end to the hurricane season. Key factors influencing this trend include slowing domestic and export demand, along with generally lower feedstock costs.

Polycarbonate prices were flat and may see flat or declining prices, potentially down in the fourth quarter due to anticipated lower feedstock Bisphenol A costs in the USA. Other influences include stagnant demand, a well-supplied market, and competitively priced imports. Additionally, China’s major new Polycarbonate capacity has prompted SABIC to close one plant in Europe, with Trinseo planning to shut down another by year-end further indicating stagnancy in the Polycarbonate market.

As per ChemAnalyst, the Polycarbonate market is expected to remain stable at low levels in the US and Asian markets. The upstream bisphenol A market exhibited only minor market activity remains slow, with a pronounced supply-demand imbalance.