The Transpacific freight trade saw a sharp retreat as earlier November rate increases failed to hold. Weekly global container-rate data ticked at about USD 1,852 per 40-ft container, but on the Transpacific lanes rates weakened significantly. Spot levels from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell about 32% week-on-week to roughly USD 2,172/FEU, while Asia ? U.S. East Coast rates declined about 8% to roughly USD 2,922/FEU. Daily quotes during the week hovered near USD 2,700/FEU for east-coast volumes and USD 1,900–USD 2,000/FEU for west-coast, putting both close to their mid-October troughs before the early-November general rate increases.
The steep drop reflects overcapacity and soft demand rather than operational disruption. With diversions via the Red Sea winding down and carriers preparing to return to the shorter Suez-Canal route, a surge in available vessel capacity is expected. Container-traffic forecasts show more than two million TEUs could be released back onto east-west routes, further pressuring rates. The earlier November GRI, which had lifted west-coast rates by about USD 1,000/FEU, has now largely fizzled, highlighting how vulnerable the market remains to supply-demand swings.
By contrast, Asia-Europe and Mediterranean trades remained sturdier. On those lanes rates rose modestly: Shanghai to Genoa and Shanghai to Rotterdam posted gains between 6–8%, reaching approximately USD 2,300– USD 2,200/FEU. Some carriers have filed new Freight All Kinds (FAK) levels for 1 December, targeting USD 3,100–USD 4,000/FEU in anticipation of demand during contract tender season. This divergence highlights a widening split in liner trade: the Transpacific market remains under pressure due to overcapacity and weak demand, while Asia–Europe stays firmer as carriers maintain tighter capacity discipline.
On the policy front, the broader backdrop continues to influence booking sentiment. The latest U.S.–China trade agreement reduced some tariffs and port-cost uncertainty, yet many duties remain — including base tariffs and prior retail-sourcing cautiousness. Carriers and shippers appear unconvinced these changes alone will trigger a rapid rebound in containerised volumes. Meanwhile, the pending re-opening of the Suez route adds downward pressure by boosting global east-west capacity further.
In the near term, the Transpacific freight market is likely to remain under strain as supply returns and demand stays soft. Carriers should avoid broad, headline GRIs; instead they will need sharply targeted, corridor-specific rate adjustments or surcharges only on genuinely tight sailings. Maintaining capacity discipline remains essential: selective blank sailings, smaller vessel deployments on lightly booked loops and flexible schedule management. Service reliability and premium scheduling should be emphasised to attract high-value cargo that values predictability over low cost. Carriers should also closely monitor shifts in sourcing from China toward Southeast Asia and adapt port rotations accordingly to capture any incremental demand while avoiding overcapacity exposure.
