The Sulphur market in China and the US is showcasing a mixed trend. China is witnessing a decline in its trend amid the presence of sufficient inventory levels, whereas the US Sulphur market is maintaining bullishness in its trend due to the continuous disruption in the supply chain.

During the week ending on 19th December, the Sulphur market in China witnessed a 1.44% decline despite stable production costs due to unchanged crude oil prices. Domestic Sulphur prices softened due to uncertainties surrounding DAP and MAP export shipments. Early in the week, lower prices in the river market further depressed Sulphur prices. Despite the ongoing plantation season, demand for Sulphur declined due to sufficient inventory levels, with port stocks rising to 2.23 million tonnes from 2.18 million tonnes on 28th November. Additionally, average operating rates across DAP and MAP producers remained at 50-55%, with expectations to stay stable until the Lunar New Year to meet winter storage needs. These factors collectively contributed to bearish market sentiments for Sulphur in China, during this week, highlighting the challenges and cautious outlook within the market.

The US Sulphur market is currently experiencing bullish trends due to disruptions in the supply chain from Canada. Freezing temperatures and harsh winter weather have slowed railed deliveries of Sulphur into Canadian ports. Regulations mandate that rail operators reduce train speeds during winter as a safety measure, which extends travel times across western Canada. Additionally, the processes of loading vessels and unloading railcars become more challenging in winter because water used at the terminals can freeze, further increasing the duration of these activities. Consequently, these disruptions in the supply chain are driving up the market trend for Sulphur, reflecting the challenges posed by winter conditions and regulatory measures on the commodity's availability and transportation.

In the domestic market, Sulphur output remains steady, with Gulf Coast refinery utilization rates rising to 95% during the week ending 29 November, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Additionally, Midwest refinery utilization jumped by more than 8 percentage points. US Sulphur imports from Canada have declined over the past three years, from over 1 million tonnes imported between January and October 2022 to 770,000 tonnes during the same period in 2024, marking a 23% decline. Amid the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the Sulphur market in the US continues to exhibit bullish sentiments. These disruptions, coupled with decreased imports contribute to a strong market trend despite external challenges.

According to ChemAnalyst, the Sulphur market is expected to remain firm until the end of the year before softening in early 2025. In the US, potential tariffs announced by President-elect Donald Trump may increase costs for Canadian Sulphur importers if implemented. These tariffs could reduce exports next year, as more Gulf Coast volume may be redirected to Midwest and East Coast consumers instead of coming from Canada. However, in the western US, limited rail infrastructure may lead to higher Sulphur prices due to fewer alternative supply options.