Supply Challenges Fuel Meth Acrylic Acid Price Surge as Demand from Key Industries Soars

Meth Acrylic Acid (MAA) prices in the USA witnessed a significant surge during September 2024. This increase was driven by strong and consistent demand from key industries such as paints, coatings, automotive, and construction, which outpaced supply and prompted inventory replenishment after prior destocking efforts.

The bullish market sentiment for MAA stemmed from multiple factors. Rising demand was complemented by supply constraints caused by unexpected production challenges and increasing acetone costs, a vital raw material. International demand, particularly from Mexico and Latin America, also exerted upward pressure on export prices, reflecting a robust buying environment.

Interestingly, the U.S. inflation rate dropped to 2.5% in August, marking the lowest level since February 2021. This deceleration could lead the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in its upcoming meetings, further influencing economic conditions.

Despite the positive demand dynamics, domestic MAA supply faced challenges due to lower operating rates and technical difficulties at some MAA production facilities. The Gulf Coast was particularly vulnerable as Tropical Storm Francine threatened to impact production in Louisiana. Additionally, the U.S. Manufacturing activities decreased, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and complicating market conditions.

Supply-side challenges were exacerbated by port congestion, which remained a significant issue across North America. High order volumes and container shortages contributed to delays in shipping and increased logistical costs. The imminent expiration of the master contract between the International Longshoremen's Association and the United States Maritime Alliance raised fears of potential labor disruptions that further disrupted supply chains, thus leading to incline in prices of MAA.

Freight costs also experienced fluctuations, adding to the complexity of the shipping landscape. The potential for disruptions in East Coast and Gulf ports heightened concerns among shippers, prompting some to extend operating hours and implement strict cargo pickup deadlines.

Demand for MAA was robust, particularly in the paints and coatings sector, which reported strong performance. The automotive industry also contributed to this demand surge, while companies replenishing inventories intensified the need for MAA. Notably, prices for Methyl Methacrylate (MMA) and Polymethyl Methacrylate (PMMA) rose by 14% and 7%, respectively, indicating healthy market conditions for MAA derivatives.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for paint and coating manufacturing remained steady in August 2024 according to FRED, signaling consistent pricing pressure. On the crude oil front, prices hovered around USD 73.7 per barrel on a weekly basis, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although rising supplies from OPEC+ and weak demand from China contributed to a three-month loss in U.S. crude oil prices in September, fears of supply disruptions remained prominent, impacting overall market sentiment.

The increase in MAA prices during September by 3% reflected the complex interplay of demand and supply factors, along with geopolitical and environmental considerations.

Looking ahead, MAA prices are forecasted to fluctuate, with anticipated increases of 2-3% in October, followed by stabilization and slight decreases into early 2025. Key factors such as rising feedstock acetone prices, fluctuating crude oil demands, and adjustments in domestic production will play crucial roles in shaping these trends of MAA. However, potential decreases in demand during winter and volatility in raw material costs may introduce additional challenges for market participants.