Post-Typhoon Port Recovery; Implement PSS and China’s Record Throughput Influence Freight Rates

Several Taiwanese ports have resumed bunkering operations following the departure of Typhoon Gaemi, which is now moving northwestward over Fujian Province and is anticipated to weaken into a tropical depression as it continues over Jiangxi Province. Despite the resumption of outbound vessel movements in Kaohsiung and full vessel traffic in Taichung, Keelung, and Taipei, inbound movements in Kaohsiung remain suspended due to residual strong winds and rough seas. In Mai-Liao, vessel navigation has restarted but is limited to ships with a gross tonnage of less than 40,000 metric tons. The typhoon's impact is likely to create temporary disruptions in the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply chain, with potential delays in shipments and port operations. However, these disruptions are expected to be short-lived. In contrast, bunkering operations in China's Zhoushan and Shanghai have been suspended since Monday, with resumption expected around July 29 when weather conditions improve. These delays could create temporary regional shortages but are unlikely to cause significant long-term fluctuations in LPG prices.

Hapag-Lloyd is set to introduce a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) starting August 1, 2024, for shipments from Istanbul and Gemlik, Türkiye to Casablanca, Morocco. This surcharge will be USD 100 per container and will remain in effect until further notice. Additionally, a PSS of USD 500 per container will apply to dry container shipments from all African ports to Bangladesh, effective August 19, 2024, and continuing until further notice.

Furthermore, a General Rate Increase (GRI) is anticipated for cargo transported in Dry and Reefer containers from Latin America’s East Coast ports to North America, Central America, and the Caribbean. Starting September 1, 2024, this GRI will raise rates by USD 1,500 per container and will be in effect until further notice.

These surcharges and rate increases are expected to impact freight rates significantly, potentially driving up shipping costs. As freight rates rise, the increased transportation costs may be passed on to chemical manufacturers and traders, potentially leading to higher chemical prices. The effect on chemical prices will depend on how supply chains adjust to these increased costs and whether the surcharges lead to broader disruptions or delays in chemical shipments.

In the first half of 2024, Chinese ports handled a total of 161.8 million TEUs, reflecting a robust 8.5% year-on-year increase in container throughput. Shanghai Port and Ningbo Zhoushan Port saw significant growth, with throughput rising by 7.5% to 25.5 million TEUs and by 8.4% to 19.1 million TEUs, according to the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China.

This increase in container throughput suggests a strengthening of China's port operations and overall trade activity. As a result, the higher volume of goods being processed may contribute to a more competitive freight market. Increased port activity can lead to improved efficiency and potentially lower freight rates due to economies of scale. However, if the growth in throughput is accompanied by logistical or capacity constraints, there could be upward pressure on freight rates. Overall, the increase in container throughput indicates a generally positive trend for shipping, potentially stabilizing or even reducing freight rates if the supply of shipping capacity keeps pace with the rising demand.